I couldn’t agree more. I think the fallacy we have to recognize with this case is approaching the possibilities of why Asha left the house from an adult mindset. As a child, I was a well-behaved, straight A student with extracurriculars, much like Asha. I also had night terrors, and often needed a television or a small light on at night, even when older, because of the anxiety I had about nightmares and sleeping. Even still, there were a few times where I snuck out of my window in the middle of the night, just to walk around the block. I couldn’t give you a good reason why I did it, other than it made me feel a little older and more independent. Never did it occur to me that something bad could happen to me. Our brains operate differently at that age, and children have an internal logic all their own.
That being said, it’s worth noting that before her disappearance, Asha’s class read a book (The Whipping Boy by Sid Fleischman) where children run away from their home and go on an adventure. IIRC, she also was upset about her performance in a recent basketball game. Maybe she felt adventuring out into the night would make her feel brave. Maybe she didn’t know it would storm that night, but she went out anyway, so she could feel more mature than she was. It’s hard to put ourselves into her shoes when most of us haven’t been children for many years.
I’m not saying I don’t believe she could have been lured or enticed out in some way, but I think it’s just as possible that she left the house that night for completely innocent reasons of her own and run into foul play in the course of the night.