Highlighting additional elements that may have driven the early timeline or narrow viable early scenarios. As before, if I've misstated anything, please correct me so I can amend my errors. Wherever possible I'm trying to lean on sourced material. That said, I can become quickly sidetracked by chains of reasoning so I apologize in advance when I stray from fact based reporting to speculative what "if" scenarios. It's a way for me to look at data from multiple points of view and I'm sure it shows up in my dissertations
In preparing this post I can tell it's going to another wall of text and even after compressing my myriad concepts, I'll run very long with them. So, in addition to this, I will sort of regurgitate a summary in a third post so if you want to skip these last two WOT's, you can go directly to the next one. There are some very long shot things I think LE or other involved folks can do to clarify some of the longstanding scenarios. Granted, not much can be acocmplished so far removed from the original missing date but just maybe something jumps out of the bushes when the right question is asked of the right person.
In contiuation of my last post here are the additional concepts with a quick "So what?" on why it matters for sequence and search.
5) Bus-stop crossroads (did not board)
What's documented: Around 12:30 pm Thu 4 / 21 / 2016 he's confirmed near the Rivers St / US-321 AppalCART stop by Holmes / Convocation—and reports from the time say he did not get on the bus.
So what? The first move is on foot or a curbside pick-up, not public transit. That keeps the initial radius local unless there was a pre-arranged ride.
6) Two stated destinations in two hours (library -> fraternity house)
What's documented: At ~10:30 am he reportedly told roommates he was going to the library. Later, at the stop, he told a cousin he was headed to the fraternity house and he didn't arrive at either.
So what? That's a late plan change or a cover story for a different meet-up- strengthens the "assisted handoff near the stop" possibilities.
7) The note + the "left-behind" bundle
What's documented: A handwritten note has been described publicly as regret / "leaving everyone behind" (not labeled a suicide note). He left his phone, bank card, passport, and laptop in the apartment.
So what? Signals voluntary departure but without the tools to go far or transact. Any longer relocation implies assistance.
8) No personal vehicle access
What's documented: Case summaries specify he didn't have access to a car that day.
So what? Movement is limited to foot, bus, or someone else's vehicle- again nudging "curb pick-up" variants.
9) No early "signs of life"
What's documented: Within weeks, police reported no confirmable financial transactions or social-media activity, while land / water searches were already extensive.
So what? This pushes against a sustained, resource-heavy "new life elsewhere" unless third-party funded.
10) Trout Lake reports drove heavy search- no results
What's documented: Two same-day Trout Lake sightings triggered drags, HRD dogs, and aviation / IR sweeps; nothing was located.
So what? If those were misattributed, early effort may have been pulled away from the campus-adjacent corridor where he actually was last verified.
11) Pre-event academic disengagement
What's documented: He reportedly wasn't logging into classes for roughly a month before 4 / 21.
So what? Suggests pre-event withdrawal, not a pure same-day impulse.
12) Clothing / backpack consistency
What's documented: Black short-sleeve App State windbreaker, khaki shorts, gray New Balance shoes, backpack (some outlets add a white visor).
So what? A backpack supports some groceries / papers, but not a wilderness kit—fits a short hop to an indoor venue over a same-hour gearless hike.
13) Still planning a fall return to App State
What's documented: Reports say grades at Caldwell CC improved and he planned to return to App State that fall.
So what? Indicates near-term intent, which pushes back against a long-preplanned permanent vanish (doesn't rule out a short-horizon crisis).
14) "Fresh-eyes" cycles and file modernization
What's documented: Later reviews (including Team Adam assistance) and digitization of the case file.
So what? Reduces the odds that first-order leads (obvious cameras, routine contacts) were totally missed; favors place-specific asks (archived stills, desk memories, yes / no freezer checks).
Where these new points leave the first 90 minutes
Initial movement is local (on foot or picked up) with a high likelihood of a nearby indoor waypoint before any later outcome.
Assisted walk-away variants (friend / ally pick-up; meet-and-ride to a kitchen; meet a counselor / mentor) stay live; "immediate solo hike" looks weaker.
The best next steps remain place-level: one freezer confirmation / denial, one doorway still of backpack + grocery bags, one AppalCART memory of where a rider like that hopped off.
One thing I can't stop thinking about is a reference I heard or read about Martin researching US Marine recruitment options. I can't remember where I picked that up so I don't want to overplay it's importance, but if it's true, then Martin was pretty serious about making a large life change and finding new work. Does anyone have any knowledge of this or am I maybe, amalgamating cases here?
Sources / references
Charley Project summary and contemporary local reporting (last confirmed near Rivers / 321; not boarding; items left).
Disappeared episode + reputable recaps (library -> fraternity-house statements; cousin at the stop).
Winston-Salem Journal, five-year feature (Trout Lake reports; case overview).
NCMEC poster for clothing / backpack details.
AppalCART route context for Rivers / 321 hub and corridor reach.
Public LE statements re: early lack of financial / social activity.
Family / media comments on plans to return to App State.