When I conduct an investigation, I theorize each of the 4 possible outcomes. Accident, Self-Harm, Cognitive Impairment (Dementia/Alzheimer's), and Foul-Play. Each one of these affect how a search is conducted. In this case, we can skip Cognitive Impairment.
Belews Lake.
This lake can get quite deep. According to my Garmin Lake Maps, just off of Piney Bluff Boat Launch the depth is 45ft. Going north of the Belews Creek bridge the depth steadily increases to 65ft at the first bend, 85ft at the second bend, 105ft at the third bend, and 145ft where the lake intersects another branch. This is the deepest of the entire lake. It's like a deep hole at the 145ft area. The lake south of the boat launch gets very shallow in a short distance. About 5ft.
This will be a difficult lake to search even with sonar.
View attachment 568842Accident.
Looking at the photo released with Miles on an inflatable paddleboard, safety appears to be a priority. A Personal Floatation Device (PFD) is being worn and the dog appears to have a PFD as well. You normally paddleboard close to shore. If Miles fell off the paddleboard and slipped out of the PFD, or was not wearing it, the paddleboard would still be left on the surface. From what I can determine, no sign of her on the water has been found. I think an accident is unlikely.
Self-Harm. (Please Be Respectful. This may be an emotional point of discussion for some. Let's leave politics out.)
There are a number of things that indicate to me that self-harm is a strong possibility. From the name change information previously posted, it would appear that Miles is Transgender. Given the current political environment, it is an emotionally difficult time for transgender people. Transgender people are also a high risk category for self-harm.
More than 40% of transgender adults in the US have attempted suicide
Miles NC drivers license is probably under the prior name of "Mia Caroline McCarthy". When pulled over, Miles appears to have given the changed name, "Miles Austin McCarthy", which is probably not in the NC drivers database. Thus, the citation for "No Operators License". It may be that Miles never changed the license information since, I believe, NC will only recognize birth certificate gender.
Miles did not have the dog at the time. As I have mentioned in my timeline post, the dog was probably left at the mothers house prior to going to Belews Lake.
The way the shoes were left leaned up against the driver side front tire may be a farewell statement.
One could paddle to a deep section of lake and let the air out of the inflatable paddleboard.
Foul-Play.
At this time, given what is publicly known, I do not think there is an element of foul-play.
I am making preparations to go to Belews Lake tomorrow. With as deep as the water gets, Sidescan sonar may be difficult to see objects at these depths. I have the latest Garmin Livescope multi-scan sonar that would be more beneficial. My ROV's can go to a depth of over 300ft.
