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I think that's pretty much the scenario.
I would have thought it was a cover-up because of Zahra already being gone at that point (disregarding the furniture store report as possibly a false siting), but the first day of school in that district is shown as August 25. LE implied that someone outside the family had seen Zahra a month prior to her being reported missing (so...September 9?).
Just speculating.
Aug. 25, start of school at Hudson
Sept 25, furniture store clerk sighting