GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 9

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  • #101
I had this post almost complete and ready to submit when my tablet/the forum completely lost/ deleted it. So this post is coming a few hours after it was intended to be posted. It may contain old, irrelevant info that's already been covered. It may be an abbreviated version because I don't remember everything because it was typed on the fly w/ a lot of stuff on my mind. I apologize for that in advance.

I've been away for a few days, and damn, I had a lot of catching up to do. To the tune of 40 some pages. I apologize if this is convoluted and all over the place. Several pages back, someone asked if anyone was skilled in reading body language. I watched the PC w/out looking too deeply into any one thing, but just a broad observation taking everything in. IMO, ZH was obviously exhausted. TO ME, she appears to not really have changed in emotion since the announcement of the contact being made. IMO, at this time, I don't think ZH has reason to believe AH is remotely close to being safe, or possibly even alive. IMO, she reasonably believed there was a possibility she was alive on or about 22 Oct. 2013. This is dependent upon the letter, which I'll get into later. I did observe what I believe were a few "tells" coming from ZH. When a person is asked a question that elicits a "yes or no" response, they often show a physical sign prior to that question even being completed. To explain: Out of respect, and not to be rude, while the question is being asked, and you already know the answer before its finished being asked, you'll subtly start to move your head in the direction of "yes or no" before you even verbally address it. I know the questions were not being directed towards ZH, but considering the personal and extraordinary nature of this situation, its human nature to subconsciously behave in this manner. Also, towards the end there was a question being asked where ZH looks to her left with what appears to be the look of "seeking approval" or "opinion seeking." I don't remember what the specific questions were. Like I said, I ran through all of this very quickly. I will go back and watch it all again. This is all MO from my experience conducting 100's of interviews and interrogations.

A few other things from the PC. Correct me if I'm wrong please, but wasn't KR the one, with it being unsolicited, broach the topic of sex trafficking (meaning that specific PC that day) ? If so, what was the motive for this ? If this is the case, IMO, I don't think its "sex trafficking". I would lean more towards a single (or possibly a pair) of predators. Don't look to far into this - I think more like a David Parker Ray. Not the torture/slave aspect, but a similar "holding". Several of Ray's victims voluntarily got into vehicles of his daughter (they were acquaintances). One was the GF or ex GF of one of his cohorts. I'm just strictly throwing a HYPOTHETICAL situation hat into the ring.

Looking at the letter is what really holds the info. Why was it "written"? What were it's contents? Was it "written " under AH's own volition? A possibility I look at is if there is a pair harboring/holding AH, I believe there's a good possibility one is a female. All MO, and a little brainstorming w/ out knowing any of the contents of the letter. One really could take and interpret, or spin this into anything. Both by attempting to interpret the PC and theorize about the letter. That's evident by reading all the posts on these threads. I'll digress before this derails from my original intentions. Back to the letter. If I recall, LE and ZH say they believe it was "written" by AH because of it's TONE. I keep putting "written" in quotations because they are saying it was the tone that makes them believe it came from AH. IMO, this sounds more like it was typed, or possibly not written by AH, but transcribed by someone else. Handwriting analysis would be able to determine w/ extremely high certainty whether it was or wasn't written by AH. I know someone mentioned it may not be recognized because it may not have been cursive, but written in "block" style print. A handwriting expert could determine even if it was written in hieroglyphics.

I know there are people who believe the PC was precipitated by a possible leak of info. IMO, I'm leaning towards that being a strong possibility. Reasoning - If you have thoroughly prepared for a PC, you've gone over EVERY possible question you'll be fielding from basic to any "off-the-wall" angle. IMO, JY sounded like she was "thinking on the fly" when answering a few questions. Now, I know the point was to be vague and not slip or provide anything other than what you were prepared to release. If you're prepared properly, there's no thinking. You're well rehearsed and ready to answer any question. When you watch other PCs that were prepared in advanced, you can see how they were done in an almost "robotic" fashion.

Sorry for any lack of knowledge on the details. I just wanted to put something out there while things were fresh in my head.
 
  • #102
Ashley426 transcribed the press conference:

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We continue to ask the public for information. It seems recently we have gotten some more information and tips that should have come in days within the investigation start. Certainly it is our hope that Abby will be coming home soon. We're asking Abby to reach out to her mother, her sister, or any law enforcement agency, in the manner she reached out previously. We're releasing some photos of a necklace and a pocketbook that may be in Abby's possession. Reach out to us if you know anyone who has recently move anywhere with these things (paraphrased)

Letter written on 10/22, postmarked on 10/23, received 11/06. Written by Abby to her mother. We have had it in custody since 11/06. LE had to take every possible step to verify it's authenticity. We believe it was written by Abby and sent to her mother. One of the most tangible leads, wanted to take every step needed to find Abby. We have not been successful, but we are not giving up. Why would you spend all these resources on a runaway? If this were your child, as it is Zenya's, what would you want? We have been able to confirm she has no source of income. Other than that letter, there has been no source of contact. She is not out there alone. We are going to continue the search for Abby, as Zenya has asked us to do. If she hears this, if she's able to see this, please contact. If someone has Abby, we implore you to make that contact. If it's a citizen that has her, it is not a good thing, please reunite with her family. We will continue this investigation as long as we need to. We are not going to release the letter. We have thought long and hard, we are concerned that letter may generate letters from someone other than Abby that might lead us where we do not want to go.
Kieran Ramsey, FBI: Volunteers, LE, community have done everything possible to help us bring this 15 year old girl home. Is this a runaway, missing persons case? Our initial indications when Abby went missing were certainly consistent with an abduction. Either willingly, coerced..she is a 15 year old girl with no independent financial means. One in eight runaways can be forced into sexual situations after the abduction occurs. As the investigation proceeded, it showed us her public life, her private life, who Abby is, who her family is. When we received this letter, it was unprecedented. We have not seen this in previous investigation and it gave us hope. Is Abby safe? It continues to be our biggest concern. Although she may have left willingly, someone may have coerced her. We are mindful of incidents around the country where we have had miraculous reunions with their families. We continue to hope that with all the effort of LE, the community, the media who continue to put the story out there..thank you.

Questions
Where is it postmarked from? Not disclosing to not jeopardize.
Reaching out for help? Demands? Describing the tone that is one that Abby would have used.
How long was the letter? Pleading for help or saying I'm okay, don't worry about me? She's 15, we're worried about her. It's our job as LE. Her mother is worried. Not releasing any contents of the letter as it is a critical piece of evidence. Do not contact Zenya and ask these questions, direct them to LE. She has received a lot of calls, and while we appreciate it, it could be an impediment in the investigation.
Has the letter changed the direction of the investigation? The letter was a piece of evidence. We sent it out for expert analysis. It gave us the focus we were looking for and have been asking for. As much as you can keep this story out there, we will take information and follow through.
Dedicating resources to the geographic locations to where it was written..doesn't that hinder investigation so people might be aware she was there? That's why we released the letter. We're hoping it will receive national attention. Look everywhere..is there someone you haven't seen there before? Elizabeth Smart was seen in a library, we need your help and the public's help..we have thought about what we released. (missed part of it--buffering) When we get those calls, these gentlemen follow up.
One in eight young women may be victims of sexual exploitation, is this a problem in New England or is there any indications of that? I wouldn't say it's in NE, but all over the country..one child is too many. One in eight is a disturbing fact. Abby is certainly at risk, no financial means. Doesn't plague us necessarily, but it is a problem all over the country.
Has Abby run away before? This is not a characteristic she has shown before.
Since the wrote a letter, does this mean she might be alright? It does not give us a lot of comfort. It didn't come to LE for a number of days. I'd like to say it does, but it doesn't.
Why was it postdated and received so much later? Why 13 days? I'm not going to answer that.
Different date for written, postmarked, and received?
Do you believe she's still in NH? This investigation is wide open.
Are these items definitely what she had when she went missing? The necklace was something she wore regularly and the purse was something she might have had when she went missing.
Necklace any sentimental value? Certainly, not sure if it's her birthstone..verified she had that type of necklace.
Runaway? Abduction? Still classifying as missing persons, we have grave concerns for her safety. She was not last seen in winter clothes, she needs food, shelter, clothing.
Thank you for keeping this story alive, this is what her mother and sister need.

I did the best I could transcribing! Hope Abby is found soon...
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Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - NH NH - Abigail Hernandez, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - #8


The bolded items really confuse me.

What do they mean by "if its a citizen that has her"?

No matter who has her, its not a good thing. Citizen or illegal alien ? What do they mean here?

Might lead to where we dont want to go ? WTH? Where is that? And who would send other letters?

Runaways....."after the abduction" WTH? Was it a runaway or an abduction or both ?
 
  • #103
Ok, I haven't been on this thread for ages and just happened to Google Abigail's name. Wow! So surprised about the letter. But, here is what jumped out at me! Abby went missing on October 9th. The letter was postmarked October 23rd and dated October 22nd. 14 days. Then from the postmarked day of October 23rd until it was received on November 6th, another 14 days. Maybe just a big coincidence but very strange. Where can you mail something from that takes 14 days? Or, does this person, abductor, whatever they are, have access to the postal service? I live far, far away from N.H. and still it wouldn't take 2 weeks to get a letter. A package, maybe, but not a letter.
 
  • #104
Anyone else find it odd that her Mom and Dad both had facebooks within the same time period? And that it could be possible that MOM actually made the DAD profile? Mom never stated it was DAD, she stated he would have those photos. But no recent photos of Abby was added...childhood photos were. Wonder why? Are they hoping that Abby would contact via facebook? Because they could read facebook without joining. And no much has been on either page, except the writings TO Abby!
 
  • #105
It suddenly hit me, I don't think the press conferences are for the public, I think they're for Abby. The letter was received and they feel they authenticated it. At first I thought the press conference was for damage control, info was leaked they needed to address it. Now, with everything we've been talking about, I'm wondering if the press conference was to let Abby know they got her letter and to respond to it. To let her know her Mom read it. They don't release any info in these press conferences, so why have them? They could have issued a press release in two sentences the night we got word there was contact. I think they gave a time so they would increase the odds that Abby would have the opportunity to see the press conference. I think they're communicating with her in the only way they can. I think something in that letter gave them cause to believe she is able to see the press conferences.

I agree! I think that all of the press conferences so far are for the sole benefit of communicating to either Abby or the person(s) who are holding her. LE has been very careful with their wording and with what mom, sister have been allowed to say. They have also been overly cautious about what info is given to the public (phone pings, back pack etc). To me, it all seems like there is a hidden message to someone.

Which also leads me to wonder why they think that Abby is not in possession of her cell phone. Maybe it IS pinging but they are 'searching' for it to lead Abby or her abductor into a false sense of security. maybe they have a general area of where the phone is, or was when the battery died but not an exact location? Just some thoughts I have had...


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Everything above is JMO!
 
  • #106
Where did we learn that JCjr is AH's bf? And where did we hear that they all went to Fryeburg Fair? And where did we hear that AH and JCjr rode along with JC? And where did we hear AH spent all summer playing video games with JCjr? The same place we heard the last text sent was a heart to JCjr, and unless I hear that verified by her mother or by LE, it's all just rumor.
Apart from playing video games, I have seen photographic evidence on Abby's own FB or JC's FB that all of these things you mention are true.

Lets be honest. We don't have to be the FBI to know a single 15 year old out on the streets IS IN DANGER.

With that said Abby was able to write a letter home to mother 14 days into this adventure.

So that tells me she WAS alive and she WAS eating and she had money to buy a stamp and mail a letter.

Somebody sympathetic to Abby's situation, whatever that might be, has her and the are both so darn scared of consequences they are not coming forward and that makes all of this quite explosive.

LE needs to assure them no charges will be filed and Abby will be welcomed with open arms.

So far they have not done that and I am wondering why???

MOO
Re the Bolded part.
There has been nothing confirmed that there was a stamp on the correspondence.
On the contrary, my thoughts are that there wasn't a stamp, which is one of the reasons the letter took so long to get to its destination. That MOO going on info we have seen or heard from LE.
If you have actually seen the letter and the stamp or read it it from a confirmed source, then please accept my apologies.

I'm starting to believe that the purported Errol, NH, sighting of AH might have been a valid one, after all. Ideas?
It could well be Pete.
 
  • #107
Apart from playing video games, I have seen photographic evidence on Abby's own FB or JC's FB that all of these things you mention are true.

Re the Bolded part.
There has been nothing confirmed that there was a stamp on the correspondence.
On the contrary, my thoughts are that there wasn't a stamp, which is one of the reasons the letter took so long to get to its destination. That MOO going on info we have seen or heard from LE.
If you have actually seen the letter and the stamp or read it it from a confirmed source, then please accept my apologies.

It could well be Pete.

Good point regarding the postage! If there were no postage, and no return address, the letter would have been in limbo. Then ZH would have received one of those notices in her PO box that they were holding mail. She then would have to go to the post office during business hours, have them pull the letter, and pay postage due. Could easily delay receipt for 2 weeks.


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Everything above is JMO!
 
  • #108
No stamp is a possibility. You'd think LE would have had the postal service being extra cautious with mail to and from the Hernandez family. BUT they said they had info come in recently that they should have had weeks ago. They also said this letter was unprecedented. Maybe that's how LE dropped the ball. The failed to have mail monitored. If they had done so, that would have had that letter in their possession by 10/26 or 10/27.
 
  • #109
My other random wake up thoughts. She is with 1-2 people max. The person who has her is brilliant....maybe not book smart, but they have a great technical mind and know exactly what they are doing and how to do it. I think it's a white male between 25-40. There may be a female involved too.
 
  • #110
The bolded items really confuse me.

What do they mean by "if its a citizen that has her"?

No matter who has her, its not a good thing. Citizen or illegal alien ? What do they mean here?

Might lead to where we dont want to go ? WTH? Where is that? And who would send other letters?

Runaways....."after the abduction" WTH? Was it a runaway or an abduction or both ?
"Citizen" I believe refers to an individual, as opposed to a "sex ring" or group of criminals. The message is to that person -- if s/he exists -- and it means that it's not a good thing for you, so you'd better let her go.

Who would send other letters? Pranksters, sick individuals with a twisted sense of humor. Phony letters would lead LE on a wild goose chase (where they don't want to go) trying to vet them.

IMO, the belief now is that AH left on her own, meaning she wasn't snatched off the street at gunpoint and thrown into the back of a car. Wherever she went initially, was of her own volition. Once there, she wasn't allowed to leave. She might've thought it was going to be a "date". One common ruse is to lure girls with the promise of a "photo shoot", or an interview with a "talent/modeling agent". Sometimes another girl is used to set it up, or someone the victim thinks is a girl she befriends on the internet.

Another situation is when a girl meets a "secret" bf who romances her, and makes her believe he has her best interest at heart. So she runs away with him only to find he's a monster who takes complete control of her, and forces her into prostitution. These girls are locked up, isolated, often force-fed drugs, and beaten if they don't comply. In other words, a runaway situation becomes an abduction. JMO
 
  • #111
I don't think anyone said the letter took two weeks to arrive...just to be claimed or picked up. JMO

Also, if it was mailed from a large train or bus station, Penn Station for example, I could see how pinning down her location would be sifficult and why they would want wider coverage, thinking she was getting onto a bus.
 
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A carny rat? Lol!

I can't see Abby dropping her standards that low, especially if she was following her dreams. What 14yo dreams of that kind of life?


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At her age I wanted to be a clown in the Ringling Bros. circus, I even went so far as to send for an application from them, and hoped to go to Sarasota to their clown school. lol
 
  • #114
At her age I wanted to be a clown in the Ringling Bros. circus, I even went so far as to send for an application from them, and hoped to go to Sarasota to their clown school. lol

It's really not all that strange. But still working my Fryeburg fair angle, the exhibitors come from all over and live at the fair in their motor homes/campers. Plenty of promise to visit major cities, travel the country and basically get out of small town USA.

Agriculture and carnivals are not the only attraction at these fairs - there's the entertainment venue as well.

It would not have been strange to see a camper/motor home parked behind walmart near the trails waiting for Abby to meet up with them.
In my earlier calculation she only walked that far when the last text was sent. The next 14 minutes spent getting out of there, parking somewhere, changing clothes, etc and disabling/ dumping the phone.
 
  • #115
It's really not all that strange. But still working my Fryeburg fair angle, the exhibitors come from all over and live at the fair in their motor homes/campers. Plenty of promise to visit major cities, travel the country and basically get out of small town USA.

Agriculture and carnivals are not the only attraction at these fairs - there's the entertainment venue as well.

It would not have been strange to see a camper/motor home parked behind walmart near the trails waiting for Abby to meet up with them.
In my earlier calculation she only walked that far when the last text was sent. The next 14 minutes spent getting out of there, parking somewhere, changing clothes, etc and disabling/ dumping the phone.

It's a reasonable theory (the fair), but I think someone built up her trust either online (the "older boy" she met) or over a period of time at her place of work (wherever that is). Teens may be naive, but I can't see her going away with someone she met after a day or two at a fair. If she had a history of abuse, her boundaries/judgment would be lesser than the typical teen, but I think someone would have still had to build her trust, mirroring her words/moods, feigning empathy for her situation, etc. MOO.


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If she's involved in an organized crime sex ring, it's unlikely that the letter was mailed or video (if her) was posted anywhere near where she may be found. There are so many levels and people in these organizations located in different places/states.


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