NJ - Multiple Deaths in Mansion Fire, Monmouth County, Colts Neck, 20 Nov 2018 *Arrest*

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Tuesday, Nov. 12th:
*Motions Hearing (@ am ET) – NJ – Keith Martin Caneiro (50), his wife Jennifer Karidis Caneiro (45) & 2 children Jesse (11) & Sophia (8) (Nov. 20, 2018, Colt’s Neck; died prior to fire @ home) – *Paul Jay Caneiro (51/now 56) (bro) arrested (11/20/18), charged (11/29/18), indicted (2/25/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) on 4 counts of murder, 2 counts of felony murder, 2 counts of aggravated arson, possession of a firearm for an unlawful purpose, possession of a knife for an unlawful purpose, unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession of a knife, theft, misapplication of entrusted property & 2 counts of hindering apprehension. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Monmouth County
*Indicted (7/1/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) with 2nd degree insurance fraud (from 11/6/12 to 7/9/19). Plead not guilty.
Previously charge with 2 counts of 2nd degree aggravated arson (in connection to fire set @ his Ocean Township home on the same day before fire in Colt’s Neck) & with 4 counts of murder, with possession of a firearm & possession of a weapon for unlawful purpose. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Paul Caneiro allegedly stole $78K from Keith & Jennifer Caneiro. He stole the money sometime between January 2017 & the day of the murders.
Trial was set to begin 6/3/24 - cancelled.
Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, presiding. Monmouth County Prosecutor Deputy First assistant Christopher Decker. Public defender’s office defense attorney W. Michael Wicke.

Court hearing from 11/28/18 thru 3/4/24 reference post #920 here:
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/...-colts-neck-20-nov-2018-arrest.400517/page-46

3/26/24 Update: Deputy Assistant Public Defender Michael Wicke told the judge at the conference that Caneiro's June 3 trial date is not a realistic one. The only thing standing in the way of a trial is a pretrial hearing on the admissibility of DNA evidence that was analyzed using cutting edge technology that has not yet been declared scientifically reliable in a New Jersey court. A hearing on the scientific reliability of the technology was scheduled to take place during the weeks of Feb. 26 & March 4, but the hearing has not yet happened because the defense sought to expand the proceeding to consider additional DNA samples beyond those that were originally analyzed with the new technology. At Tuesday's conference, attorneys discussed making arrangements for the defense expert to examine the software utilized by the state police lab. Judge Oxley scheduled a conference in the case for 4/8/24 to discuss scheduling the pretrial hearing on the STRmix software. Judge Oxley said it’s likely however he rules in the pretrial hearing, his ruling will be appealed. The outcome will have statewide implications. "That will take us into the heart of the summer - July or August,'' Oxley said, referring to the trial.
4/8/24 Update: Trial is set to begin on 6/3/24 was cancelled. Now could be moved to July or August.
9/30/24 Update: Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux, the county's assignment judge, has interceded in the case & on Friday declared there will be no more delays. "This court will not allow this case to go on forever,'' he said, rejecting a request from defense attorneys to grant extensions to deadlines for experts to submit reports about DNA evidence that is being challenged by the defense. "This court can't allow experts, whether they are paid or they're doing it on a voluntary basis, to continue to slow down this court's process of getting to a hearing date,'' Lemieux said. While the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the delays, Caneiro's public defenders first filed a motion for a hearing challenging the admissibility of the DNA evidence in March of 2022 & that hearing for years has been the only thing standing in the way of a trial. Judge Lemieux on Friday said there will be no more delays. He scheduled the hearing on the DNA evidence to begin on 11/12/24 & continue through December, if necessary, so the trial can begin in late February or early March & be finished before Easter. "There is no justifiable reason to allow this case to continue to sit while this defendant sits in jail,'' the judge said. Judge Lemieux said he will preside over the pretrial hearing & Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, who has supervised the case since its inception, will preside over the trial. The judge ordered the defense expert's report to be submitted to the court by the close of business today.
 
Tuesday, Nov. 12th:
*Motions Hearing (@ am ET) – NJ – Keith Martin Caneiro (50), his wife Jennifer Karidis Caneiro (45) & 2 children Jesse (11) & Sophia (8) (Nov. 20, 2018, Colt’s Neck; died prior to fire @ home) – *Paul Jay Caneiro (51/now 56) (bro) arrested (11/20/18), charged (11/29/18), indicted (2/25/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) on 4 counts of murder, 2 counts of felony murder, 2 counts of aggravated arson, possession of a firearm for an unlawful purpose, possession of a knife for an unlawful purpose, unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession of a knife, theft, misapplication of entrusted property & 2 counts of hindering apprehension. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Monmouth County
*Indicted (7/1/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) with 2nd degree insurance fraud (from 11/6/12 to 7/9/19). Plead not guilty.
Previously charge with 2 counts of 2nd degree aggravated arson (in connection to fire set @ his Ocean Township home on the same day before fire in Colt’s Neck) & with 4 counts of murder, with possession of a firearm & possession of a weapon for unlawful purpose. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Paul Caneiro allegedly stole $78K from Keith & Jennifer Caneiro. He stole the money sometime between January 2017 & the day of the murders.
Trial was set to begin 6/3/24 - cancelled.
Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, presiding. Monmouth County Prosecutor Deputy First assistant Christopher Decker. Public defender’s office defense attorney W. Michael Wicke.

Court hearing from 11/28/18 thru 3/4/24 reference post #920 here:
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/...-colts-neck-20-nov-2018-arrest.400517/page-46

3/26/24 Update: Deputy Assistant Public Defender Michael Wicke told the judge at the conference that Caneiro's June 3 trial date is not a realistic one. The only thing standing in the way of a trial is a pretrial hearing on the admissibility of DNA evidence that was analyzed using cutting edge technology that has not yet been declared scientifically reliable in a New Jersey court. A hearing on the scientific reliability of the technology was scheduled to take place during the weeks of Feb. 26 & March 4, but the hearing has not yet happened because the defense sought to expand the proceeding to consider additional DNA samples beyond those that were originally analyzed with the new technology. At Tuesday's conference, attorneys discussed making arrangements for the defense expert to examine the software utilized by the state police lab. Judge Oxley scheduled a conference in the case for 4/8/24 to discuss scheduling the pretrial hearing on the STRmix software. Judge Oxley said it’s likely however he rules in the pretrial hearing, his ruling will be appealed. The outcome will have statewide implications. "That will take us into the heart of the summer - July or August,'' Oxley said, referring to the trial.
4/8/24 Update: Trial is set to begin on 6/3/24 was cancelled. Now could be moved to July or August.
9/30/24 Update: Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux, the county's assignment judge, has interceded in the case & on Friday declared there will be no more delays. "This court will not allow this case to go on forever,'' he said, rejecting a request from defense attorneys to grant extensions to deadlines for experts to submit reports about DNA evidence that is being challenged by the defense. "This court can't allow experts, whether they are paid or they're doing it on a voluntary basis, to continue to slow down this court's process of getting to a hearing date,'' Lemieux said. While the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the delays, Caneiro's public defenders first filed a motion for a hearing challenging the admissibility of the DNA evidence in March of 2022 & that hearing for years has been the only thing standing in the way of a trial. Judge Lemieux on Friday said there will be no more delays. He scheduled the hearing on the DNA evidence to begin on 11/12/24 & continue through December, if necessary, so the trial can begin in late February or early March & be finished before Easter. "There is no justifiable reason to allow this case to continue to sit while this defendant sits in jail,'' the judge said. Judge Lemieux said he will preside over the pretrial hearing & Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, who has supervised the case since its inception, will preside over the trial. The judge ordered the defense expert's report to be submitted to the court by the close of business today.

LIVE: Family Massacre Murder Trial — NJ v. Paul Caneiro — Hearing​

Scheduled for Nov 13, 2024
 

11/13/2024​

Hearing on DNA evidence in Caneiro family murders finally underway as trial looms​



can not access this article - does it say when his next court hearing is in there? I tried to find other articles, but alas - no access on those either. I have 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬 on - that's why I can not access them. TIA! :)
 
can not access this article - does it say when his next court hearing is in there? I tried to find other articles, but alas - no access on those either. I have on - that's why I can not access them. TIA! :)
Here you go:

Years in the making, a pretrial hearing to scrutinize the reliability of software that deviates from traditional methods of DNA analysis got underway Tuesday before Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux.

[..]

"This software utilizes probabilistic genotyping analysis to interpret mixed DNA profiles which are often encountered at crime scenes,'' Lemieux said.

"By leveraging statistical methods, the STRmix software generates millions of hypothetical DNA profiles, evaluates the strength of these profiles against evidential samples and determines the most likely combination of profiles that can account for the DNA profile,'' Lemieux said.

"While other jurisdictions across the United States have admitted evidence tested with STRmix software, no court in the state of New Jersey has done so,'' Lemieux said.

Caneiro's attorneys from the Public Defender's Office in 2022 filed a motion seeking to exclude the STRmix evidence, but it took years for their experts to be allowed to examine the program's proprietary source codes under a negotiated protective order.

Caneiro, 57, of Ocean Township, is expected to stand trial early next year in the murders of his brother, Keith, 50, sister-in-law, Jennifer, 45, niece, Sophia, 8, and nephew, Jesse, 11, at Keith Caneiro's Colts Neck mansion.

[..]

The first witness at Tuesday's pretrial hearing on the DNA evidence was Monica Ghannam, a forensic scientist at the Union County Prosecutor's forensic laboratory in Westfield.

Ghannam said the laboratory began using the STRmix program exclusively for its DNA analysis in 2017.

Prior to that, the laboratory used a traditional DNA analysis method known as random match probability, which was limited to analyzing mixtures of DNA from one or two sources and occasionally a three-person mixture, Ghannam said..

"We can now evaluate four-person mixtures, when we could barely evaluate three-person mixtures before,'' Ghannam said.

Nicole Wallace, assistant Monmouth County prosecutor, asked Ghannam to assess the reliability of STRmix.

Ghannam responded, "very high.''

Ghannam explained that the random match probability method generates a statistic on the likelihood a match to a DNA profile can be found in the general population, while a ratio used by STRmix compares the DNA profile to the likelihood it can include or exclude a person of interest from the sample.

Another advantage of the STRmix technology is that it can remove the profile of a known contributor to a DNA mixture, so that what's left of the mixture can be better analyzed, Ghannam explained.

The STRmix technology was validated by a process of comparing its results to the results derived from the manual analysis of DNA profiles of known contributors, Ghannam explained.

When cross-examined by Christopher Godin of the Public Defender's Office, Ghannam conceded she is not a software developer, was not involved in the development of STRmix and has never seen the program's source code.

The hearing is expected to last several weeks.

11/13/24 - DNA Testing Pre-trial Hearing
 
Since it said "hearing is expected to last several weeks" - I am going to "assume" it continues today... if not, I can always correct my notes. :)

Thursday, November 14th:
*Motions Hearing continued (@ am ET) – NJ – Keith Martin Caneiro (50), his wife Jennifer Karidis Caneiro (45) & 2 children Jesse (11) & Sophia (8) (Nov. 20, 2018, Colt’s Neck; died prior to fire @ home) – *Paul Jay Caneiro (51/now 56) (bro) arrested (11/20/18), charged (11/29/18), indicted (2/25/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) on 4 counts of murder, 2 counts of felony murder, 2 counts of aggravated arson, possession of a firearm for an unlawful purpose, possession of a knife for an unlawful purpose, unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession of a knife, theft, misapplication of entrusted property & 2 counts of hindering apprehension. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Monmouth County
*Indicted (7/1/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) with 2nd degree insurance fraud (from 11/6/12 to 7/9/19). Plead not guilty.
Previously charge with 2 counts of 2nd degree aggravated arson (in connection to fire set @ his Ocean Township home on the same day before fire in Colt’s Neck) & with 4 counts of murder, with possession of a firearm & possession of a weapon for unlawful purpose. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Paul Caneiro allegedly stole $78K from Keith & Jennifer Caneiro. He stole the money sometime between January 2017 & the day of the murders.
Trial was set to begin 6/3/24 was cancelled.
Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, presiding. Monmouth County Prosecutor Deputy First assistant Christopher Decker. Public defender’s office defense attorney W. Michael Wicke.
For STRMix motion – Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux presiding. Nicole Wallace, assistant Monmouth County prosecutor & Defense attorney Christopher Godin.

Court hearing from 11/28/18 thru 4/8/24 reference post #941 here:
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/...-colts-neck-20-nov-2018-arrest.400517/page-48

9/30/24 Update: Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux, the county's assignment judge, has interceded in the case & on Friday declared there will be no more delays. "This court will not allow this case to go on forever,'' he said, rejecting a request from defense attorneys to grant extensions to deadlines for experts to submit reports about DNA evidence that is being challenged by the defense. "This court can't allow experts, whether they are paid or they're doing it on a voluntary basis, to continue to slow down this court's process of getting to a hearing date,'' Lemieux said. While the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the delays, Caneiro's public defenders first filed a motion for a hearing challenging the admissibility of the DNA evidence in March of 2022 & that hearing for years has been the only thing standing in the way of a trial. Judge Lemieux on Friday said there will be no more delays. He scheduled the hearing on the DNA evidence to begin on 11/13/24 & continue through December, if necessary, so the trial can begin in late February or early March & be finished before Easter. "There is no justifiable reason to allow this case to continue to sit while this defendant sits in jail,'' the judge said. Judge Lemieux said he will preside over the pretrial hearing & Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, who has supervised the case since its inception, will preside over the trial. The judge ordered the defense expert's report to be submitted to the court by the close of business today.
11/13/24 Update: Superior Court Judge Marc Lemieux in Monmouth County began hearing testimony Tuesday to determine if DNA evidence obtained from a newer, high-tech method can be used in the case. Christopher Swendeman, a spokesman for the Monmouth County Prosecutor’s Office, said Lemieux is expecting jury selection to begin in late February or early March 2025. Years in the making, a pretrial hearing to scrutinize the reliability of software that deviates from traditional methods of DNA analysis got underway Tuesday before Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux. The first witness at Tuesday's pretrial hearing on the DNA evidence was Monica Ghannam, a forensic scientist at the Union County Prosecutor's forensic laboratory in Westfield. The outcome of the hearing will have statewide implications beyond the Caneiro case, as the New Jersey State Police recently began using STRmix in its DNA lab.
For more info see post #947 here: https://www.websleuths.com/forums/t...-colts-neck-20-nov-2018-arrest.400517/page-48.
Motions hearing continues on 11/14/24.
 
can not access this article - does it say when his next court hearing is in there? I tried to find other articles, but alas - no access on those either. I have on - that's why I can not access them. TIA! :)

No date on next hearing. It does say this “hearing is expected to last several weeks.”
 
I will just post this one more time - until I or someone else posts more info - to see IF this is going to be every day.

Friday, November 15th:
*Motions Hearing continued (@ am ET) – NJ – Keith Martin Caneiro (50), his wife Jennifer Karidis Caneiro (45) & 2 children Jesse (11) & Sophia (8) (Nov. 20, 2018, Colt’s Neck; died prior to fire @ home) – *Paul Jay Caneiro (51/now 56) (bro) arrested (11/20/18), charged (11/29/18), indicted (2/25/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) on 4 counts of murder, 2 counts of felony murder, 2 counts of aggravated arson, possession of a firearm for an unlawful purpose, possession of a knife for an unlawful purpose, unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession of a knife, theft, misapplication of entrusted property & 2 counts of hindering apprehension. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Monmouth County
*Indicted (7/1/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) with 2nd degree insurance fraud (from 11/6/12 to 7/9/19). Plead not guilty.
Previously charge with 2 counts of 2nd degree aggravated arson (in connection to fire set @ his Ocean Township home on the same day before fire in Colt’s Neck) & with 4 counts of murder, with possession of a firearm & possession of a weapon for unlawful purpose. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Paul Caneiro allegedly stole $78K from Keith & Jennifer Caneiro. He stole the money sometime between January 2017 & the day of the murders.
Trial was set to begin 6/3/24 was cancelled.
Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, presiding. Monmouth County Prosecutor Deputy First assistant Christopher Decker. Public defender’s office defense attorney W. Michael Wicke.
For STRMix motion – Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux presiding. Nicole Wallace, assistant Monmouth County prosecutor & Defense attorney Christopher Godin.

Court hearing from 11/28/18 thru 9/30/24 reference post #948 here:
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/...-colts-neck-20-nov-2018-arrest.400517/page-48

11/13/24 Update: Superior Court Judge Marc Lemieux in Monmouth County began hearing testimony Tuesday to determine if DNA evidence obtained from a newer, high-tech method can be used in the case. Christopher Swendeman, a spokesman for the Monmouth County Prosecutor’s Office, said Lemieux is expecting jury selection to begin in late February or early March 2025. Years in the making, a pretrial hearing to scrutinize the reliability of software that deviates from traditional methods of DNA analysis got underway Tuesday before Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux. The first witness at Tuesday's pretrial hearing on the DNA evidence was Monica Ghannam, a forensic scientist at the Union County Prosecutor's forensic laboratory in Westfield. The outcome of the hearing will have statewide implications beyond the Caneiro case, as the New Jersey State Police recently began using STRmix in its DNA lab.
For more info see post #947 here: https://www.websleuths.com/forums/t...-colts-neck-20-nov-2018-arrest.400517/page-48.
Motions hearing continues on 11/14/24.

11/14/24 Update: No info yet – motions hearing continues on 11/15/24.
 
Reed, who works for Bode Technology, a private forensic lab in Lorton, Virginia, where the items were sent for testing, said she analyzed much of the DNA found on them using the STRmix software.

The computer software utilizes a cutting-edge method known as probabilistic genotyping to analyze complicated mixtures and small amounts of DNA.

It deviates from traditional DNA analysis that uses a method known as random match probability, which generates a statistic on the likelihood a match to a DNA profile can be found in the general population.

Probabilistic genotyping instead generates what is called a. "likelihood ratio'' that a known person can either be included or excluded as a contributor to a DNA sample.

Reed testified that DNA on the inside of the jeans taken from Paul Caneiro's home was a mixture to which there were three contributors.

The STRmix program concluded there was a "very strong'' possibility Sophia and Paul Caneiro both contributed to the mixture - Sophia, a one in 470 sextillion chance, and Paul, a one in 37 quintillion chance, Reed testified.

STRmix also showed "very strong'' likelihoods that DNA on the gloves were mixtures of Sophia's and Paul's biological material, Reed testified.

She said she was provided with DNA profiles of Paul Caneiro and the four victims to compare the DNA evidence to.

11/14/24 --
 
Not too sure if this is for today, Nov. 19th - but I "think" it is...


Tuesday, November 19th:
*Motions Hearing [continued] (@ am ET) – NJ – Keith Martin Caneiro (50), his wife Jennifer Karidis Caneiro (45) & 2 children Jesse (11) & Sophia (8) (Nov. 20, 2018, Colt’s Neck; died prior to fire @ home) – *Paul Jay Caneiro (51/now 56) (bro) arrested (11/20/18), charged (11/29/18), indicted (2/25/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) on 4 counts of murder, 2 counts of felony murder, 2 counts of aggravated arson, possession of a firearm for an unlawful purpose, possession of a knife for an unlawful purpose, unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession of a knife, theft, misapplication of entrusted property & 2 counts of hindering apprehension. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Monmouth County
*Indicted (7/1/19) & arraigned (3/18/19) with 2nd degree insurance fraud (from 11/6/12 to 7/9/19). Plead not guilty.
Previously charge with 2 counts of 2nd degree aggravated arson (in connection to fire set @ his Ocean Township home on the same day before fire in Colt’s Neck) & with 4 counts of murder, with possession of a firearm & possession of a weapon for unlawful purpose. Plead not guilty. Held without bond. Paul Caneiro allegedly stole $78K from Keith & Jennifer Caneiro. He stole the money sometime between January 2017 & the day of the murders.
Trial was set to begin 6/3/24 was cancelled. (should take about 4 weeks)
Superior Court Judge Joseph W. Oxley, presiding. Monmouth County Prosecutor Deputy First assistant Christopher Decker. Public defender’s office defense attorney W. Michael Wicke.
For STRMix motion – Superior Court Judge Marc C. Lemieux presiding. Nicole Wallace, assistant Monmouth County prosecutor & Defense attorney Christopher Godin.

Court hearing from 11/28/18 thru 11/13/24 reference post #951 here:
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/t...-colts-neck-20-nov-2018-arrest.400517/page-48

11/14/24 Update: Ms. Reed, who works for Bode Technology, a private forensic lab in Lorton, Virginia, where the items were sent for testing, said she analyzed much of the DNA found on them using the STRmix software. Reed testified that DNA on the inside of the jeans taken from Paul Caneiro's home was a mixture to which there were three contributors. The STRmix program concluded there was a "very strong'' possibility Sophia & Paul Caneiro both contributed to the mixture - Sophia, a one in 470 sextillion chance, and Paul, a one in 37 quintillion chance, Reed testified. STRmix also showed "very strong'' likelihoods that DNA on the gloves were mixtures of Sophia's & Paul's biological material, Reed testified. She said she was provided with DNA profiles of Paul Caneiro & the four victims to compare the DNA evidence to. Motons hearing continues on 11/15/24.
11/15/24 Update: Motions hearing continues on 11/19/24.
 
Expert Grilled on Limitations of Software

11/18/24

FREEHOLD – A co-creator of controversial computer software that analyzed DNA evidence implicating Paul Caneiro in the murders of four family members stood by the technology in court last week, fending off questions for two days about its limitations and errors.

John Buckleton, principal scientist at New Zealand's Institute of Environmental Science and Research, was on the witness stand Nov. 14 and 15, vouching for the computer software known as STRmix at a hearing to determine if the DNA evidence it produced will be admissible at Caneiro's upcoming trial.

[..]

The outcome of the hearing on the admissibility of the evidence will have statewide implications for STRmix because, while the New Jersey State Police recently began using the technology in its DNA lab, the computer software has never before been challenged or deemed reliable in a New Jersey court.

[..]

The hearing on the DNA evidence is expected to continue Monday, Nov. 18.
 
Not too sure if this is for today, Nov. 19th - but I "think" it is...
From the news articles posted here, It appears the hearing days we can confirm were Nov 13, 14, 15, 18, and 19. Searching for more updates...
 
Last edited:

11/13/24

Superior Court Judge Marc Lemieux in Monmouth County began hearing testimony Tuesday to determine if DNA evidence obtained from a newer, high-tech method can be used in the case, the report said. Read more here.

[..]

Christopher Swendeman, a spokesman for the Monmouth County Prosecutor’s Office, said Lemieux is expecting jury selection to begin in late February or early March 2025.

If Caneiro is found guilty during his trial, he could face life in prison, as each murder charge against him carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment without parole. In addition, felony murder carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment subject to the “No Early Release Act.”
 

11/15/24

While STRmix has been in use in New Jersey for several years, its reliability has never before been challenged in a New Jersey court, so LeMieux's ruling will have statewide implications, especially since the New Jersey State Police recently started using it in its forensic laboratory.

STRmix uses a method known as probabilistic genotyping, which deviates from a traditional method known as random match probability.

Random match probability generates a statistic on the likelihood a match to a DNA profile can be found in the general population.

Probabilistic genotyping, on the other hand, is able to analyze a DNA sample to which there are multiple contributors to generate what is called a "likelihood ratio'' that a person of interest can either be included or excluded as one of the contributors.
 
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