NV NV - Steven T. Koecher, 30, Henderson, 13 Dec 2009 - #20

[hollyblue]

Thanks for the information. What surprises me is the missing rate in Canada and the UK is very much lower than the US. Percentage wise. ( I found that stat while doing some research last night....and I have no idea exactly where I found it because I was all over the net.) That being said, the percentages in the US may be higher. ?

Curious if the numbers are due from different social systems within the gov't.? Healthcare?

I'll see if I can find something to back that up. If not, the post will prolly be zapped. BRB....

I can't find anything with a simular study or stating the percentages in the report from last night.

 

[laytonian]

Link: http://www.york.ac.uk/inst/swrdu/Publications/MissingPersons.pdf

(respectful snippage)

Decided 64%
--Relationship breakdown
--Escape Problems
--Escape violence
--Mental Health Problems

Drifted 19%
--Lost Contact
--Transient lifestyle

Unintentional absence 16%
--Dementia
--Mental Health Problems
--Accident/Harm
--Miscommunication

Forced 1%
--Victim of crime

“Most other unintentional absences were linked to depression or to psychotic illnesses, where medication had been missed.”

*****************************************************************************

My own comments:

Mental health problems represented 80% of the reasons people went missing (Decided 64% plus Unintentional absence 16% for combined total of 80%). As far as absence/disappearance due to victim of crime: 1%.

I'm sorry, but I see a math problem.

The study doesn't say that 80% of disappearances are due to mental issues.

Decided (purposeful absences) comprise 64%
(with mental health issues comprising only part)

Unintentional absences comprise 16%
(with mental health issues comprising only part)

Therefore, the 80% figure would comprise decided + unintentional

 

[sophieness]

Link: http://www.york.ac.uk/inst/swrdu/Publications/MissingPersons.pdf

Title: Lost from View—a study of missing persons in UK

Basis and Scope of Study: “Researchers at the University of York have completed the most extensive study of going missing in the UK. Drawing on case records on nearly 2000 adults and young people reported to the National Missing Persons Helpline and questionnaires completed by 114 formerly missing people, this is the first study to unravel the meaning of going missing across the entire spectrum of missing person cases.”

Study Findings:

Why adults go missing

Decided 64%
--Relationship breakdown
--Escape Problems
--Escape violence
--Mental Health Problems

Drifted 19%
--Lost Contact
--Transient lifestyle

Unintentional absence 16%
--Dementia
--Mental Health Problems
--Accident/Harm
--Miscommunication

Forced 1%
--Victim of crime

“Most other unintentional absences were linked to depression or to psychotic illnesses, where medication had been missed.”

*****************************************************************************

My own comments:

Mental health problems represented 80% of the reasons people went missing (Decided 64% plus Unintentional absence 16% for combined total of 80%). As far as absence/disappearance due to victim of crime: 1%.

Disappearance due to Mental Problem 80% vs. disappearance due to being a victim of crime 1%.

The numbers speak for themselves.

The study had additional findings supportive of details of SK's case. Review the study at your leisure and please direct any retorts, arguments, or challenges to the researchers of the study. I am just the messenger.

If Steven was a formerly missing person in the UK who is able to fill out a survey (much of the information derived from surveys filled out by formerly missing persons, so they were already obviously not homicide or suicide victims), that would be true. But 90 percent of missing persons are found within a year. And most of these people are found alive within the month. Steven has not been found, and it has been a year and a half. Statistics I quoted earlier in thread: about 50,000 missing adults in the US per year, 90 percent found is 5000 still missing adults, very roughly, after one year. Almost 5000 unidentified bodies are found every year, 1000 of which are never identified. Around 15000 known (found bodies) homicides occur every year as well. There are links to the sources on all of the original quotes, in this thread.

It sounds like they drew mostly on cases of young runaways. The problem is not the study, it's how the majority of people in this study differ with Steven Koecher- a missing adult for over 1 year in the United States. I looked and looked for studies of this nature- what happened with missing adults who were gone for over a year. But I don't think there is one.

 

[Fairy1]

If Steven was a formerly missing person in the UK who is able to fill out a survey (much of the information derived from surveys filled out by formerly missing persons, so they were already obviously not homicide or suicide victims), that would be true. But 90 percent of missing persons are found within a year. And most of these people are found alive within the month. Steven has not been found, and it has been a year and a half. Statistics I quoted earlier in thread: about 50,000 missing adults in the US per year, 90 percent found is 5000 still missing adults, very roughly, after one year. Almost 5000 unidentified bodies are found every year, 1000 of which are never identified. Around 15000 known (found bodies) homicides occur every year as well. There are links to the sources on all of the original quotes, in this thread.

You make a good point. The statistics relative to why people go missing can only be determined from cases where they have been located or recovered. In Steven's case, we have no idea in which category he would fall as he is still missing.

 

[Lady LEO]

Link: http://www.york.ac.uk/inst/swrdu/Pub...ingPersons.pdf

Title: Lost from View—a study of missing persons in UK

Basis and Scope of Study: “Researchers at the University of York have completed the most extensive study of going missing in the UK. Drawing on case records on nearly 2000 adults and young people reported to the National Missing Persons Helpline AND questionnaires completed by 114 formerly missing people, this is the first study to unravel the meaning of going missing across the entire spectrum of missing person cases.”

Study Findings:

Why adults go missing

Decided 64%

Did SK decide to leave because he had a relationship breakdown?
Did SK decide to leave because he had Escape Problems?
Did SK decide to leave because he had to Escape violence?
Did SK decide to leave because he had Mental Health Problems?

Drifted 19%
Did SK drift away and Lost Contact?
Did SK drift away because of a Transient lifestyle?

Unintentional absence 16%
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Dementia?
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Mental Health Problems?
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Accident/Harm?
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Miscommunication?

Forced 1%
Did SK disappear because he was a Victim of crime?

I believe that the researcher know what they are talking about. I'm not sure if people in the UK go missing for reasons different than what would occur in the US, I just don't know.

Would those of you who have followed this case from the very beginning be willing to share their thoughts in a quick format such as Yes, No, or Unknown to each of the individual reasons for disappearing that the researchers determined?

If you don't want to, that's ok. If you decide you want to, thank you for sharing.

 

[hollyblue]

Decided 64%

Did SK decide to leave because he had a relationship breakdown? Maybe
Did SK decide to leave because he had Escape Problems? Yes
Did SK decide to leave because he had to Escape violence? Maybe
Did SK decide to leave because he had Mental Health Problems? Maybe

Drifted 19%
Did SK drift away and Lost Contact? No
Did SK drift away because of a Transient lifestyle? No

Unintentional absence 16%
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Dementia? No
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Mental Health Problems? Maybe
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Accident/Harm? No
Did SK unintentionally become absent because of Miscommunication? No

Forced 1% No

My maybe's are secondary to Yes. I believe, for the most part SK left because of his problems, and the maybe's may have been factors.

Second, I'm thinking he may have been on medication and decide to stop taking them. I would think LE would have known or check it out....even if he started meds after he left the SLC area. Although no drugs were found with a drug dog search, I don't believe they would hit on legal drugs...or legal drugs that could be abused.

JMO

 

[hollyblue]

Lady Leo, I would like to find a US study like the you posted, but overall, I think the culture is relatively the same and the stats should be close. imo If the Canadian/UK health care system is more inviting to the homeless and mentally ill, then I would think it may fall within their decision making...to not return. ?

 

[fridaybaker]

It's become clear to me in reading these past threads that it can be helpful, if not absolutely necessary, to know the background of the poster. Toward that end, please note that I am not any kind of professional, nor do I play one on TV. My qualification for posting on this site is simply that I am a student of life. My interest here is in finding SK (what a horror for his family, not to mention what he may be going/gone through himself) as well as the challenge involved.

It seems to me that to further this case in any way, there are a few things that really need to be understood (and pardon me, please, if I've missed these in the many threads here.) The scar on the head and what medications he was taking seem to be pretty pertinent.

Also, with respect to any mental illness: It sure seems to me that it's a possibility, since he'd been living away from his family and long-standing friends for several months, that there could have been some slow-onset, very mild changes in his mental health, which were mild enough to go unperceived by less familiar acquaintances but would affect his thinking about things. Perhaps they were mild enough that he could plan and carry out plans but that inhibited him from seeing things in a completely objective manner. I understand the problems with staying under the radar, but I also believe that people manage to do it.

As far as mental health diagnoses, whether or not these mental status changes fit into a DSM 4, 5, 6 or 156 category, I just don't think is necessary to acknowledge that there might have been "mental issues". What today is considered a normal variation in human behavior, tomorrow, I'm quite sure, will be categorized in whichever version of the DSM is being used, as a phsyciatric condition. However, I always think back to what a Texan prosecutor once said "in other places they might call them sociopaths, in Texas we call just call them 'mean Sons o'B.....s'." My point being, actualy mentally ill or not according to the DSM, Steven might have been in a frame of mind that was "on the edge" at the least, leading him to make choices that seem illogical or that made him vulnerable.

Laytonian: You mentioned in an earlier post that I can't find right now about there being an "elephant in the room". I know you lean toward the "victim of foul play" theory, but this earlier post made it sound like there is something that you see that you think most of us don't. I've looked through so many, many threads here (and I think all of them) but I just don't see this. Can you enlighten? You seem like you're the closest to this disappearance, being in communication with family and having kept up with it from day one. Thanks, by the way, for the amazing info. and continued input you've contributed here!

 

[Lady LEO]

Link: www.namus.gov

Coroners and medical examiners enter the information into this nationwide database about unidentified remains found within their jurisdiction. This database was formed and is available to the public and law enforcement with the primary goal of increasing the number of successfully identified remains and solve more cases.

Based upon a search of this database, which is open to the public, there are currently no unidentified remains that match SK's skeletal or physical characteristics in the following states: Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Texas, Arizona, and California.

Search of this database also reveals that SK's information is on file, along with his DNA, and dental records for comparison for any remains that are within the physical parameters that would match SK's.

 

[Lato]

fridaybaker.....the last "elephant in the room" mention was in this thread
(#20), page 16, #399 on 5/6/2011. This was found by using the Search
function.

 

[believe09]

I suppose we can discount Steven's family and head down the mental illness path again. His family and friends indicated there was no mental health issue-or am I mistaken?

I suppose the scar on the head would be relevant if it was related to a blow to his head, and not something cosmetic....like a cat scratch. Or a tree branch snapping back while he was hiking.

Just sayin.

 

[Lato]

I suppose we can discount Steven's family and head down the mental illness path again. His family and friends indicated there was no mental health issue-or am I mistaken?

I suppose the scar on the head would be relevant if it was related to a blow to his head, and not something cosmetic....like a cat scratch. Or a tree branch snapping back while he was hiking.

Just sayin.

believe.....I have wondered about some of the things Steven did or didn't do while in St. George.....but just because I can't explain his behaviors does not
mean that I think he is/was mentally ill.

Do we know anything about the "scar"? Is it from childhood? Is it really
a scar? Is it the way he parts his hair? Guess I will try a Search....lol.

 

[believe09]

I wasnt being snarky, Lato-you know I respect you so I apologize if my post wasnt well written.

I dont know about the scar, but it is a valid question. Head trauma, even from childhood, can affect people and their behaviors.

FWIW I was a HUGE fan of the schizophrenia angle early on because of a case I had just worked on in the months prior. SK reminded me, superficially, of the missing man. But my missing man was much much younger. And, you could see in the series of photos of him from teens to early 20's the lights going off in his eyes. And, his behaviour had noticibly undeniably changed...although not enough to cause an intervention.

He was located, deceased, after stuffing himself up a drain pipe completely naked. Fairy worked on his threads too-she knows how emeshed I became in that theory here!

 

[hollyblue]

RSBM:

It seems to me that to further this case in any way, there are a few things that really need to be understood (and pardon me, please, if I've missed these in the many threads here.) The scar on the head and what medications he was taking seem to be pretty pertinent.

Agree. Neither of these have been verified. The "medications" taken by SK were just mentioned by GS. It's possible SK was prescribed legit meds after his move to SG and family wasn't aware. It's also possible he was on medication prior and the family has chosen not to talk about it. I think it is a scar seen on the video, and I would very much like to know the background of it, but the family may not feel sharing in that information. IMO. I don't believe the scar had ever been mentioned prior to this thread. Either way it would be helpful to us in generating theories, but I'm sure LE knows the answers to both.

 

[Lato]

I wasnt being snarky, Lato-you know I respect you so I apologize if my post wasnt well written.

I dont know about the scar, but it is a valid question. Head trauma, even from childhood, can affect people and their behaviors.

believe....I'm sure it was the way I posted.....there is no snarky from you..!
Thanks for the thoughts....

 

[hollyblue]

fridaybaker.....the last "elephant in the room" mention was in this thread
(#20), page 16, #399 on 5/6/2011. This was found by using the Search
function.

Here's a copy of the quote and I would also like to know who or what she is referring to as the elephant in the room she has in speculation. Along with the post re: the parts of information gathered that have been overlooked? What does she feel has been overlooked? Put it out there for the newbies to review. I'd like to know what Laytonian is referring to in both actually.

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - NV NV - Steven T. Koecher, 30, Henderson, 13 Dec 2009 - #20

 

[hollyblue]

I suppose we can discount Steven's family and head down the mental illness path again. His family and friends indicated there was no mental health issue-or am I mistaken?

I suppose the scar on the head would be relevant if it was related to a blow to his head, and not something cosmetic....like a cat scratch. Or a tree branch snapping back while he was hiking.

Just sayin.

His family may not have known. He was never diagnosed. Would they be able to tell a "quirkiness" from a possible behavior problem emerging? Maybe he sought help after his move to SG and didn't tell them or maybe they didn't feel like sharing that information in the public.

The scar...that's just it too, we don't what, how or how severe the injury was, but if it's a cat scratch...that's one big, ole mean cat, imo. And him being a boy scout, would have known about those branches and how they snap back. First rule I learned in being in the woods and hunting. I made it to the cadat level of girl scouts too.

 

[fridaybaker]

Lato -thanks for mentioning the "search" function. Mea Culpa.

Yes, that thing in the photos that looks looks like a scar -what the heck is it? Is it just the photos that make a small part in hair look like major brain surgery? Odd.

 

[believe09]

His family may not have known. He was never diagnosed. Would they be able to tell a "quirkiness" from a possible behavior problem emerging? Maybe he sought help after his move to SG and didn't tell them or maybe they didn't feel like sharing that information in the public.

The scar...that's just it too, we don't what, how or how severe the injury was, but if it's a cat scratch...that's one big, ole mean cat, imo. And him being a boy scout, would have known about those branches and how they snap back. First rule I learned in being in the woods and hunting. I made it to the cadat level of girl scouts too.

BBM-as you said we dont know *if* and when that happened. It would be a good learning curve, right? Smacked in the face once and you would pay close attention the rest of the time.

If it is a scar. If he actually had a mental illness. If he was actually being treated for anything.

From my experience, someone in the family always knows. They may not discuss it with everyone for sure, but someone always knows.

Quirky does not equate to mental illness or any social disorders. Or it can. But if his family knew of any organic cause for his quirkiness, they are entitled to keep it to themselves. LE knows undoubtedly.

If it is there, unless someone shares it, all we have is speculation. At the present time, they say there was nothing. They have access to his bank accounts, his computer, his bills. LE can get any pharmacy and physicians records with a subpoena. It is easy and common-most physicians give up the info with an interview...no need for the paperwork.

So my point-sure, if there is a scar it would be nice to know about it. Perhaps gsmith will weigh in.

Until then, we are just going around and around about whether or not there were signs of mental illness. I have learned enough here about SK to have an opinion, and mine is that I will respect the family's stand on the issue.

But I also think he walked away.

 

[hollyblue]

Lato -thanks for mentioning the "search" function. Mea Culpa.

Yes, that thing in the photos that looks looks like a scar -what the heck is it? Is it just the photos that make a small part in hair look like major brain surgery? Odd.

I think his hair is too short in that photo for it to be a part. imo

ETA: video