Hi everyone,
I have spent a couple days catching up on this case and mulling it over, and have a few thoughts/questions:
If Colin did not have his coat on,
hypothermia would have set in by the time he was seen or shortly afterwards, and could explain the staggering. I know you have all kicked this around also, but it should not be dismissed so easily. Whether he could have gotten hypothermia or died from exposure is not really in question (it is certain if he had no coat), so whether he was wearing his coat and how long he was exposed is an extremely important detail. If he did not have his coat but hypothermia did not kill him, then we know he was picked up or something else happened within 45 minutes or so. According to Google Maps, this is also the approximate time it would take to walk 2 miles from the party to the bridge W of Dump Road on Rt 3, which I imagine would be the most obvious indication that he was going the wrong way (assuming he took a wrong turn.) Sadly I do not think there is any way he could have walked the 5-7 miles home in those temps without a coat.
According to the NamUS info it doesn't sound like they know for certain that he had the coat or backpack. Someone at the party must be able to remember seeing him leave and can confirm what he was wearing.
https://www.findthemissing.org/en/cases/14305/1/
Here is an article on hypothermia and burrowing for anyone who is not totally familiar with it.
http://www.livescience.com/41730-hypothermia-terminal-burrowing-paradoxical-undressing.html (sources a peer-reviewed medical study
here)
It was mentioned some time back that footprints were found or there was other indication he had stepped over a guard rail. Guard rails start between Setting Pole Dam Rd and Mt Matumbla Rd. going west. Do we know if it was the south or north side the footprints were found? Approximately where?
https://goo.gl/maps/OPKpq
The question this scenario brings up, of course, is why hasn't even a shoe or scrap of clothing been found?
On to the foul play angle:
I recall a map of the search area with a 1 mile radius - this is not enough, obviously, and I think someone said the search was widened, but do we know if the Piercefield Flow was searched, especially the area around and under the bridge? What about the cluster of ponds near Dump Rd and on the other side of the bridge? Pumphouse Rd is especially creepy and convenient if someone needed to quickly get rid of a body.
At three years, we can only hope to find clothing or the backpack and larger bones if he was placed nearby Rt. 3. With the cold weather and abundance of water, I really don't think anyone would take the time to bury him, and if he went into the larger body of water, it is also likely his remains are very spread out or partially buried in silt at this point. Has there been cadaver dogs or a dive team?
Final question, does LE have a POI or suspect whatsoever? Have they even considered foul play as a possibility?
