OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #13

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Okay. He neither confirmed nor denied. Like everything else. Nor denied being the key phrase there. They were no longer commenting on just about everything. That's not the same as denying.

Your opinion may be they were retracting. My opinion is they were not. The only person who *knows* is the LEO.

Sure. That was my point. That it's opinion, not fact.

Oh...the other person who knows is the person with whom Kyron left, I'd assume... jmo.
 
Random question for someone that might know. Did TH (Terri) work at the school as a volunteer? If so was it on a regular basis or maybe just for special events?
 
To the person who posted about the rumor of someone who worked at the school but was not staff....

What could that mean? Even cooks, bus drivers, and janitors are considered staff aren't they?

How bout a Big Brothers/Big Sisters person? I know they come to our school. ETA - they just hang with their little for an hour - playing games, shooting baskets, whatever they want to do really.

The RUMOR is about a waste management company employee who someone SPECULATES might not have showed up at work on Monday.

It's sheer SPECULATION on the site that is discussing it.
 
No. Early bell is at 8:35 a.m., final bell at 8:45 a.m. The school opened early that day at 8 so parents could see the exhibits. At 8:45 the children went to class at the bell and then split into groups for the rest of the fair (that ended at 10).

Regular start time is 8:45 a.m.



Ahhhh, That makes Tanners statement more solid to me then. He said the sub {possibly a parent helper for the day} said after he noticed Kyron wasn't there, said SS to 'Oh that's only 5 and there should be 6'. That must be the number of students in each group to tour the exhibits.

Now isn't that odd that Kyron walked past the school room door and told Tanner he was going to see the electrical project when his group would be touring the projects and would most likely see it on their tour ???
 
Four BIG things that have stuck in my craw:

1) Kyron did not leave school on his own without any reason, or convincing or luring. Finally, today it's confirmed for us that LE knows this.

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
This is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.

The third item that sticks in my craw, that has not yet been confirmed for us, but I really think we can make a very fair assumption based on inductive reasoning. And that is:

3) There was clear breach in communications between Kyron’s caretakers.

And the 4th thing that sticks in my craw is more the broad brush of the perfect storm created by points 1, 2, and 3. I believe “perfect storm coincidences” are rare. But…

4) Points 1, 2 and 3 create “the perfect storm”.


The Breach.

How is it that Kyron's teacher(s) were not "missing" Kyron? They knew he was at school that morning at the science fair.

A bit later, during formal class attendance, he was not there. Kyron's teacher(s) marked him absent. AND, the teacher(s) was clearly not concerned about the fact that Kyron was not there.

A 7 year old, and they weren't concerned. Clearly, they had a reason not to be concerned that Kyron had been there earlier, but now was not there. Using inductive reasoning (thanks Sherlock) Kyron's absence made sense to them. It was expected/anticipated.

LE knows why the teacher(s) were not concerned. They knew the evening Kyron disappeared.

Terri stood at the bus stop expecting Kyron to get off the bus. Kyron's absence from school was a shock to her. Why? Because Terri brought Kyron to school and left him there, watched him walk down the hall to his class and his teacher(s) who would take care of him that day as usual. Terri expected Kyron would have a normal (well, more fun than normal) day at school.

Kyron's teacher(s) saw Kyron early on but did not expect him to be in class at attendance time. No alarms went off for the teacher(s) when 7 year old Kyron was not there. Terri left school certain Kyron's teacher(s) would take care of him as they had every day of the school year.

What caused such different expectations about where Kyron was supposed to be all day – completely different expectations between Terri and the Teacher(s)? Something happened to cause that breach of communication between those responsible for Kyron.

This breach is an important investigation focal point, because therein lies the breakdown in Kyron's security system. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day. It was a key event in the perfect storm set-up for the vanishing of Kryon.

I am confident that LE knows that the communication breach is an important question to answer for Kyron’s investigation and I suspect they have their answer now.

(We can note, 10 days into the investigation, that the school’s response has been to keep the teacher in the classroom. Not even temporarily with a vacation or paid leave. No disciplinary action evident there. No apparent need to CYA on this point for the school.)

The Perfect Storm.

What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.



Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.


At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?

Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LE’s just gotta know this.



This is all just me thinking-out-loud, noodling, and somewhere in there is my humble opinion with regard to parent-teacher communication protocol for 7 year olds and the value of statistical reasoning when assessing coincidences. I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow. ;)
 
June 6 News Conference - Deputies 'No Closer' To Finding Boy
http://www.kptv.com/video/23812286/index.html

- The last time he was seen was here at the school, and that was on Friday about late, a late hour in the morning was the last time he was actually seen here at the school. Since that time we've developed no other additional information that's indicated that he was here beyond that point after our interviews with the children.

- He was seen not, he was seen near his classroom, and the last point was down at the south entrance door of the school.

- Actually that statement came from one of the children that was here earlier this morning that was interviewed.
 
True that. Funny he didn't say "about 8:45am". :waitasec:

No, but the reports about when Kyron was left at school say "about" or "around" 8:45.

Here's the transcript of the relevant part of the press conference Tuesday June 7 re last time Kyron was seen.


"We suspect he went missing on Friday."

Later (around 5:10) a reporter asks: Can you provide any clarification about what time he was last seen and where?
Not at this time.

Another reporter asks for further clarification of earlier time line statements by LE
"I can't answer your question completely, but I can say the last point at which Kyron was seen was about 9:00 am on Friday morning ."
"Was that within the school?"
Yes

Later on, a reporter asks if the last sighting was by the stepmother or someone else:
"I'm not able to give those details."
 
I don't like this theory, but let me see what you guys think.

Imagine a terrorist (domestic or foreign) wanted to terrorize a community. What better way than to snatch up a child in a school? Wouldn't that invoke a great deal of fear? Imagine said terrorist is suspected by LE. LE would feel highly compelled to keep a very tight lid on the investigation, lest panic and fear run amok. Also, LE would want to be sure to rule out the possibility of Kyron wandering off, so they cross their t's and dot their i's. Maybe through the search process they are on the trail of the terrorist, and leading a 2 pronged investigation, hence the involvement of the FBI

I think its far fetched myself. Makes pieces fit to some degree, however.

I prefer a theory more along the lines of a mentally handicapped person, perhaps related to someone from the school, who likely has Kyron.

Personally, I could relate to this, because I had a cousin who had the intellect of an 8 year old, but he was 40 years old, 250+ lbs, and loved kids almost to an obsessive level.

In any case, I'm hoping and praying that they do indeed have some strong leads and are pursuing them vigorously. The fact that the FBI got so involved so soon and with so much attention lends itself to this fact, in my opinion.

I am absolutely convinced of the family's innocence in this case. They seem very normal. My heart goes out to them.
 
Why that day, imo the Annual Science Fair.
Why Kyron;
preferred age and gender, and opportunity.
jmo
Maybe it was someone obsessed with the Ethan Stacy case. He was taken on the 4th and Ethan was 4. (I'm grasping at straws)
 
I have been reading the Kyron threads as much as I can. Wow how fast people are posting!

Anyway, not many people have posted what I think is a possible theory to his dissapearance. It may very well turn out to be a perp, but I believe that it is possible that he went outside to search for an actual frogs, his science exhibit topic. Then, a wild animal got to him. Here are the reasons:

1. He was very excited about his science exhibit and had just shown it off to his stepmom. To build on his excitment, he went out looking for frogs.
2. Looking at the satellite photo of his school, you can see dense, undeveloped land surrounding the school. Perfect habitat for moutain lions and bears. Small children make targets for such animals.
2. The timeline that has been posted states that classes did not start until 10 am. His stepmom left him at about 8:45 am. What was he supposed to be doing in the meantime?
3. A mountain lion or bear can grab a child strongly enough that they cannot scream much if any. They will drag their "prey" to a remote location for feeding.

I know that LE has been searching near the school, but they need to search really good in that rugged terrain next to the school. I hope that LE consults wildlife experts on this. Otherwise, his body could never be found.

I sure hope he turns up safe, but it is not looking good at this point in time.
 
Can we also talk about Postpartum depression?

IMO: I think Kyron was taken by a female. Most females that hurt or take anothers child usually have postpartum depression or they are women who have no children and want their own that they steal one.

I feel that most women who harm are somehow damaged on an emotional level...

This is an interesting angle, Zaha.
 
I've seen several comments about the fact that SM looked scared to death today at the press conf.

Could she looked scared to death because Kyron is missing?

I mean, if my child was missing and I had no idea where he was or if he was ok I'd be scared to death too.

JMO
 
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