OR OR - Stephanie Warner, 43, Ruch, 4 Jul 2013 - #1

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  • #441
It's usually the simplest explanation that's the most realistic.

Occam's Razor -- a line of reasoning that says, given all the variations to solve a problem, the simplest answer is often the correct one.

The unusual activities that the POI is involved in are very serious. How does this connect to Stephanie? It gives an idea of her boyfriend's mindset. He is someone who openly promotes militia-like resistance against authority -- the U.S. government no less -- and has reached more than 4 million people in his effort (YT video views 4,635,522 total). So, a popular guy with devoted followers. A defiant guy with a huge ego.

He openly defied the US Forest Service and camped on BLM land resulting in a lengthy court process. So, he didn't just move, as most people would -- he dug his heels in defiantly and for years.

On July 4, Stephanie and Lonnie argued openly at the parade. Then Stephanie got in a vehicle with him -- a man whose ego is supported by thousands of people who think he's right because he's defiant. Who admire his combative stance. She got into a vehicle with a man who supports armed resistance and who, from what I could tell in photos of him, was most likely armed that day.

They had an hour's drive ahead of them.

What happened in that vehicle -- an hour of silence? An hour of exchanging pleasantries? Doubtful. At some point on the way home while the argument continued, did Stephanie say something that challenged his authority, his ego? She knew about his activities, did she threaten to expose him? Or, was it something simpler... She said things that made him feel small, vulnerable, incapable? In arguing with him, she was defying him -- so how does he handle that?

In my opinion, he viewed Stephanie the same way he views the US government.
 
  • #442
I have always been a practitioner of Occam's Razor. I think the hypothesis that makes the least assumptions is the most likely. I find my judgement sometimes skewed to the scenario that keeps her well. I need a kick in the rump now and again to manage my expectations. I just don't know WHY someone would hold her against her will. I have trouble getting around that.
Occam's Razor -- a line of reasoning that says, given all the variations to solve a problem, the simplest answer is often the correct one.

The unusual activities that the POI is involved in are very serious. How does this connect to Stephanie? It gives an idea of her boyfriend's mindset. He is someone who openly promotes militia-like resistance against authority -- the U.S. government no less -- and has reached more than 4 million people in his effort (YT video views 4,635,522 total). So, a popular guy with devoted followers. A defiant guy with a huge ego.

He openly defied the US Forest Service and camped on BLM land resulting in a lengthy court process. So, he didn't just move, as most people would -- he dug his heels in defiantly and for years.

On July 4, Stephanie and Lonnie argued openly at the parade. Then Stephanie got in a vehicle with him -- a man whose ego is supported by thousands of people who think he's right because he's defiant. Who admire his combative stance. She got into a vehicle with a man who supports armed resistance and who, from what I could tell in photos of him, was most likely armed that day.

They had an hour's drive ahead of them.

What happened in that vehicle -- an hour of silence? An hour of exchanging pleasantries? Doubtful. At some point on the way home while the argument continued, did Stephanie say something that challenged his authority, his ego? She knew about his activities, did she threaten to expose him? Or, was it something simpler... She said things that made him feel small, vulnerable, incapable? In arguing with him, she was defying him -- so how does he handle that?

In my opinion, he viewed Stephanie the same way he views the US government.
 
  • #443
Neptune you seem to have a very solid insight to this situation. I have a question for you. If it has been covered here, forgive my ignorance. Can we be confident that the authorities are aware of all these excellent points? Thanks for everything.
 
  • #444
Occam's Razor -- a line of reasoning that says, given all the variations to solve a problem, the simplest answer is often the correct one.

The unusual activities that the POI is involved in are very serious. How does this connect to Stephanie? It gives an idea of her boyfriend's mindset. He is someone who openly promotes militia-like resistance against authority -- the U.S. government no less -- and has reached more than 4 million people in his effort (YT video views 4,635,522 total). So, a popular guy with devoted followers. A defiant guy with a huge ego.

He openly defied the US Forest Service and camped on BLM land resulting in a lengthy court process. So, he didn't just move, as most people would -- he dug his heels in defiantly and for years.

On July 4, Stephanie and Lonnie argued openly at the parade. Then Stephanie got in a vehicle with him -- a man whose ego is supported by thousands of people who think he's right because he's defiant. Who admire his combative stance. She got into a vehicle with a man who supports armed resistance and who, from what I could tell in photos of him, was most likely armed that day.

They had an hour's drive ahead of them.

What happened in that vehicle -- an hour of silence? An hour of exchanging pleasantries? Doubtful. At some point on the way home while the argument continued, did Stephanie say something that challenged his authority, his ego? She knew about his activities, did she threaten to expose him? Or, was it something simpler... She said things that made him feel small, vulnerable, incapable? In arguing with him, she was defying him -- so how does he handle that?

In my opinion, he viewed Stephanie the same way he views the US government.

The "Thanks Button" is not enough, Neptune. You just took everything we've been thinking about for almost two months and talking about for the past week and you've stated clearly what we've instinctively known about the POI. Yes, this likely started as "just" an argument between two lovers, BUT the personality and activities of the POI took it to another level indeed. Stephanie became his "enemy" and a threat to his higher cause (which includes his self-image!). Great thinking and writing!
 
  • #445
Neptune you seem to have a very solid insight to this situation. I have a question for you. If it has been covered here, forgive my ignorance. Can we be confident that the authorities are aware of all these excellent points? Thanks for everything.

I know they are aware of his mining claim legal issues and his videos because I emailed the info to them in late July, along with other info I uncovered. I followed up with two emails about the gap in videos at the time Stephanie disappeared, which was a longer gap than usual. I finally received a brief response from the detective. Whether they have drawn the same conclusions we have, we don't know, but I would think they would see the same red flags we do. Proving anything is another matter, unfortunately.
 
  • #446
Thanks, Jennifer for all that info.

My question is why? A few people have said they feel Steph is alive being held somewhere. I don't get the "why". What would be the reason for holding her? To me, it doesn't make sense. Her comments to Helias are bothering me. If he told her the world was ending and she needed to hunker down for safety, maybe. But why would he tell her that? And for this long?
I also feel this is going in a very strange direction and it is much more simple. I get these people are out there!! And scary!! But I don't feel like it has much to do with Stephanie's disappearance. But this is only my feeling. We know an argument happened at the parade and weird looks were seen between the two.

I hope with all of my being that Stephanie is still alive but my feeling from the beginning has been the POI, just a feeling, but a strong one.

I did see the unicorns and they are no longer on her page. My thought was a more sweeter version than "butting" heads. They seemed to be just touching in a more loving way. It didn't seen angry to me. That's how I remembered it.

My thanks to all of you!!

The unicorns are still there...Did you perhaps block the original poster or perhaps he blocked you? Anyway, maybe I didn't mean "Butting heads" they were touching horns in agreement. Since they were pink, I thought it might be a religious statement.
As for Stephanie being held up somewhere, I think it's reachy. Even my slightest involvement---The I love my friend Ryan and he love's his friend Stephanie connection--- Mkaes me desperately want to find a reason why this might be true. We ALL WANT her found alive. xoxoxox
 
  • #447
I have always been a practitioner of Occam's Razor. I think the hypothesis that makes the least assumptions is the most likely. I find my judgement sometimes skewed to the scenario that keeps her well. I need a kick in the rump now and again to manage my expectations. I just don't know WHY someone would hold her against her will. I have trouble getting around that.

I've been thinking about this, too. Perhaps we should be running scenarios.
Also, we should consider that maybe something scared the crap out of her and she left on her own.
Personally, I don't think the latter is likely after this amount of time. But still, lets also talk about everything we know about her in the weeks before her disappearance.
1--she lost weight 2--i don't think she was depressed because depressed people don't show up to volunteer at parades 3-she says she got married
What else?
 
  • #448
I have always been a practitioner of Occam's Razor. I think the hypothesis that makes the least assumptions is the most likely. I find my judgement sometimes skewed to the scenario that keeps her well. I need a kick in the rump now and again to manage my expectations. I just don't know WHY someone would hold her against her will. I have trouble getting around that.

Regarding Occam's Razor, I can't remember where I heard this explanation, but I love it: "If you hear hoofbeats behind you, don't assume it's a zebra."

The facts we know point to a bad outcome, but we naturally want to think Stephanie is well. It's hard to give up on that, even if it is the less likely scenario. Cases like the girls held by Ariel Castro and Jaycee Dugard's rescue give us a morsel of hope. Although I can't think of a logical reason why someone would hold Stephanie against her will, it's not totally beyond the realm of possibility. I guess it's a matter of "expect the worst and hope for the best" and don't give up, Ryan. I really feel for all you dear friends! You're on an emotional roller coaster.
 
  • #449
Lilibet is right, the thanks button is not enough! Great summation, Neptune!!!

I have to say it again, thank you to everyone here!
 
  • #450
Neptune you seem to have a very solid insight to this situation. I have a question for you. If it has been covered here, forgive my ignorance. Can we be confident that the authorities are aware of all these excellent points? Thanks for everything.

Thank you, PMR, but this WS thread about Stephanie has been the best I've participated in in the 2-3 years I've been studying cases on WS. Posters here examine all the information -- lots of good sleuthing, thoughtful reasoning and comments, no wildly-imaginative theories, and though I think most people here have come to the same conclusion, it isn't from group-think -- it's because of diligence.

I believe the authorities will get everything they need to prosecute one day. I don't think this case will go cold. Just a hunch.

*Funny to think that I found Stephanie's case because in late June I had an allergic reaction to trimming some juniper bushes. Some clippings fell down my shirt and started a rash that quickly became infected. Within a week, my entire chest, neck, and face was covered in small-pox-type boils. Eyes swollen shut. I had thrush. All I could do is wait for the meds to kick in and wait it out --- for almost a month I looked like a horrid sci-fi creature. I couldn't go outside because the sun irritated my skin. So, as a distraction and to feel useful, I got on WS and searched for a good case to sleuth... and found you folks!
 
  • #451
I've been thinking about this, too. Perhaps we should be running scenarios.
Also, we should consider that maybe something scared the crap out of her and she left on her own.
Personally, I don't think the latter is likely after this amount of time. But still, lets also talk about everything we know about her in the weeks before her disappearance.
1--she lost weight 2--i don't think she was depressed because depressed people don't show up to volunteer at parades 3-she says she got married
What else?

OK, let's start a list like OldSteve did for bf red flags. Here's what we know about Stephanie in the month or so before she disappeared:

Lost weight (not sure how, why or when).
Probably not depressed (volunteered regularly, was in the parade).
Says she got married (probably not legally, probably to POI who referred to himself as her bf and fiancé).
Promoted POI's videos on FB as recently as June 20.
Played online Poker. Last game apparently July 4 at 6:08 p.m.?
Bible verses posted until June 7.
FB friend with son of POI but not dil.
Had elaborate tats (expensive?).
Wore a cross necklace made of nails.
Maybe camera shy in parade video?
Had fight with bf in Ashland July 4 witnessed by others.

Anything else?
 
  • #452
Thank you, PMR, but this WS thread about Stephanie has been the best I've participated in in the 2-3 years I've been studying cases on WS. Posters here examine all the information -- lots of good sleuthing, thoughtful reasoning and comments, no wildly-imaginative theories, and though I think most people here have come to the same conclusion, it isn't from group-think -- it's because of diligence.

I believe the authorities will get everything they need to prosecute one day. I don't think this case will go cold. Just a hunch.

*Funny to think that I found Stephanie's case because in late June I had an allergic reaction to trimming some juniper bushes. Some clippings fell down my shirt and started a rash that quickly became infected. Within a week, my entire chest, neck, and face was covered in small-pox-type boils. Eyes swollen shut. I had thrush. All I could do is wait for the meds to kick in and wait it out --- for almost a month I looked like a horrid sci-fi creature. I couldn't go outside because the sun irritated my skin. So, as a distraction and to feel useful, I got on WS and searched for a good case to sleuth... and found you folks!

I share your optimism about this case.

So sorry about your rash! I'm not a big fan of juniper (usually smells like cat pee to me). We had tons at our previous home and none now, thankfully. I wish you hadn't had to go through that to end up here, but I'm glad you arrived!
 
  • #453
OK, let's start a list like OldSteve did for bf red flags.
FB friend with son of POI but not dil.


Anything else?
I keep reading this "dil" what is this?
 
  • #454
I keep reading this "dil" what is this?

daughter in Law. Duh, nm.

Also, the son in question is not his son or stepson. He called him son. so did Stephanie.
 
  • #455
  • #456
  • #457
OK, let's start a list like OldSteve did for bf red flags. Here's what we know about Stephanie in the month or so before she disappeared:

Lost weight (not sure how, why or when).
Probably not depressed (volunteered regularly, was in the parade).
Says she got married (probably not legally, probably to POI who referred to himself as her bf and fiancé).
Promoted POI's videos on FB as recently as June 20.
Played online Poker. Last game apparently July 4 at 6:08 p.m.?
Bible verses posted until June 7.
FB friend with son of POI but not dil.
Had elaborate tats (expensive?).
Wore a cross necklace made of nails.
Maybe camera shy in parade video?
Had fight with bf in Ashland July 4 witnessed by others.

Anything else?

Let's not forget the alcohol device in the car. I think that's really important.
 
  • #458
daughter in Law. Duh, nm.

Also, the son in question is not his son or stepson. He called him son. so did Stephanie.

BBM
Not his son??? I'm confused.
He appeared in the TV interview and was referred to as his son (could be stepson). His mother refers to Lonnie as her ex. A commenter on an article about their mining claim conviction was on the claim with them and referred to him as Lonnie's son. Stephanie may have called him son because of her relationship with Lonnie.
 
  • #459
Hi CatFancier,
If you're referring to post #408 -- to clarify, this is a correct link to the POI-sponsored video. We have established in several different ways that Lennie (aka Lonnie Ames) is Helias314 and the video is clearly noted with Helias314.

The POI is prolific in his video production and mash-ups:
http://socialblade.com/youtube/user/helias314/videos

No, I'm talking about finding similarly spelled names on Intellius, Veromi, etc. and then linking contacts from those folks. But since you quoted the Helias314, be very careful and leave POI's son out of the discussion.
 
  • #460
BBM
Not his son??? I'm confused.
He appeared in the TV interview and was referred to as his son (could be stepson). His mother refers to Lonnie as her ex. A commenter on an article about their mining claim conviction was on the claim with them and referred to him as Lonnie's son. Stephanie may have called him son because of her relationship with Lonnie.

I guess i am too. Where are his exes comments?
 
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