PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #11

[SeekingJana]

The laptop was not new. He could reimburse the county for it, or could have replaced it with a new, better model.
As for why he left the soft carrying case, it may have contained peripherals he didn't want to waste time dumping out or moving. Just pick up the unit, tuck under arm and go. I believe the power cord was found in the carrying bag at Patty's home.

His office staff has stated that HE, not Patty, made inquiries and statements in their presence up to a year prior to his disappearance about how to erase a HD. From that known line of reasoning, it was probably Ray who did the searches, not Patty. Since he had already verbalized his query regarding procedure to erase a computer HD, I would think the home computer searches related to frying a HD are not important. He had said much the same thing freely quite some time earlier.

Also, as an aside, I recall on one of the TV segments, she said she did not use the laptop at all. I cannot quote which one without re-watching all, or I would. I'm sorry. It may not matter at all, but since we don't know what was on the laptop HD, it's frustrating that she didn't use it.. in retrospect.

PS- I've spent a lot of time on the laptop questions. I think someone did a dummy drop a few years ago. It was interesting, also led to a discussion of people being seen throwing things off bridges and how that can be misconstrued.
I think that is in the archives, timeframe would be around last Nov.- Jan.

 

[SeekingJana]

JJ, I know that for your many years of membership at WS, you've stated your personal odds on the theories of Suicide, Murder, and Walkaway.
Do you ever think a 4th category of Accidental Death is needed?
( In posting about the laptop being dumped from the bridge to the river, my mind does go to some accidental death theories).

Would you mind stating your current personal odds on each possibility?
I know you have done so frequently in the past, but there is some additional info out there, and I am interested in your up to date odds. Also, if you see fit, I think there might be merit in adding Accidental Death, if you choose to do so.

Thanks!
Maria

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Two points:

1. It might not be a change in character for RFG to destroy the laptop. He might say, "Oh, I had it with me and dropped it in the water. Let me reimburse the county." The laptop was both used and an older model; the cost might not be too great. It might be easier to pass off as an accident by getting rid of the whole laptop.

2. Accident is under the 1%. It is in that 1% "everything else" catergory. That would include:

A. RFG slipped and fell into the river and drowned (possibly hitting his head in the process).

B. RFG had a health crisis, e.g. a stroke or a heart attack, and fell into the river and drown.

C. RFG was hit by a car and his body was in the bushes (a local blogger considered that possible in the first weeks).

D. RFG fell into an old well (I've been watching too many episodes of Lassie).

E. RFG had a psychological or psychological break or amnesia (due to a head injury), and wondered off.

A through D have the problem of no body and no scent beyond the parking lot. As Trackergd correctly noted a while back, the lack of scent could be explained.

E has the problem that no one reported a confused individual walking around; it would be possible, though quite rare. Here is an example: http://juneauempire.com/stories/071797/amnesia.html

 

[SeekingJana]

Thank you for clarifying your position regarding an accident which resulted in death.
Did you forget to do your usual percentages? No one has ever said not to.... We each have our own theories and percentages and mine change very often. Since no one knows the answers, I think it's understood that this is hypothetical.

PS- It's been a difficult day with the release of the Ramsey GJ info and also realizing that Martha Moxley's dear mother is still alive and the unfairness of the Skakel conviction being overturned in Martha Moxley's murder. Thank you for the chuckle over "Lassie". Feels like the right board again. YAY. :loveyou::loveyou:

Two points:

1. It might not be a change in character for RFG to destroy the laptop. He might say, "Oh, I had it with me and dropped it in the water. Let me reimburse the county." The laptop was both used and an older model; the cost might not be too great. It might be easier to pass off as an accident by getting rid of the whole laptop.

2. Accident is under the 1%. It is in that 1% "everything else" catergory. That would include:

A. RFG slipped and fell into the river and drowned (possibly hitting his head in the process).

B. RFG had a health crisis, e.g. a stroke or a heart attack, and fell into the river and drown.

C. RFG was hit by a car and his body was in the bushes (a local blogger considered that possible in the first weeks).

D. RFG fell into an old well (I've been watching too many episodes of Lassie).

E. RFG had a psychological or psychological break or amnesia (due to a head injury), and wondered off.

A through D have the problem of no body and no scent beyond the parking lot. As Trackergd correctly noted a while back, the lack of scent could be explained.

E has the problem that no one reported a confused individual walking around; it would be possible, though quite rare. Here is an example: http://juneauempire.com/stories/071797/amnesia.html

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I give it:

Foul play (including a concealed non-homicide): 44%
Voluntary departure (excluding amnesia-type things): 52%
Suicide: 3%
Other: 1%

There is not a huge gap between foul play and voluntary departure.

Note that foul play has gone up in the last three years (from a low of 40%), while voluntary has been at 51%-52% all that time.

 

[SeekingJana]

I give it:

Foul play (including a concealed non-homicide): 44%
Voluntary departure (excluding amnesia-type things): 52%
Suicide: 3%
Other: 1%

There is not a huge gap between foul play and voluntary departure.

Note that foul play has gone up in the last three years (from a low of 40%), while voluntary has been at 51%-52% all that time.

I mostly concur with all except the suicide one.:truce:
I give it 1% or less ( kind of like your bridge troll percentage). I'd add the 2% to Voluntary departure at this point.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It is possible for RFG to have killed himself, but not done so by jumping in the river.

There is a wetlands area about a mile across the bridge: https://www.bucknell.edu/academics/...y/geology-at-bucknell/montandon-wetlands.html

It is possible that RFG could have gone there and committed suicide (or that his body was dumped there). I don't think LE ever did a formal search there with a cadaver dog.

Likewise, there are wooded areas around Lewisburg where RFG could have killed himself. A local pastor who about be charged for child molestation did that; his remains were found just under a year later.

In theory, it would be possible for him to have jumped in the river and his body never be recovered, though it is unlikely.

Perhaps something in his financials might strengthen (or weaken) that possibility.

 

[SeekingJana]

You do know that the lack of searches in the wetlands is probably my bête noir in this entire case, right? We've discussed it briefly and someone else from the area said a comprehensive search would have been nearly impossible and also dangerous.. IDk. I also don't know what good cadaver dogs perched on the bows of boats did either! They should have at least gone into the wetland area!!! Growing up in a part of the country which has many such designated wildlife preserves that are wetlands, I know that bodies are dumped in the swampy- type vegetation. I can't think about this. Very upsetting.

It is possible for RFG to have killed himself, but not done so by jumping in the river.

There is a wetlands area about a mile across the bridge: https://www.bucknell.edu/academics/...y/geology-at-bucknell/montandon-wetlands.html

It is possible that RFG could have gone there and committed suicide (or that his body was dumped there). I don't think LE ever did a formal search there with a cadaver dog.

Likewise, there are wooded areas around Lewisburg where RFG could have killed himself. A local pastor who about be charged for child molestation did that; his remains were found just under a year later.

In theory, it would be possible for him to have jumped in the river and his body never be recovered, though it is unlikely.

Perhaps something in his financials might strengthen (or weaken) that possibility.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

You do know that the lack of searches in the wetlands is probably my bête noir in this entire case, right? We've discussed it briefly and someone else from the area said a comprehensive search would have been nearly impossible and also dangerous.. IDk. I also don't know what good cadaver dogs perched on the bows of boats did either! They should have at least gone into the wetland area!!! Growing up in a part of the country which has many such designated wildlife preserves that are wetlands, I know that bodies are dumped in the swampy- type vegetation. I can't think about this. Very upsetting.

As far as I know, they never did a formal search of the area (it is within 1.5 miles of where the Mini was found), or used a cadaver dog. People do visit it and the bloodhound didn't find the scent going there (see Trackergd's earlier post). It is very unlikely, but it isn't impossible.

The dog on the boat, in theory, could get the scent from a body, even under water.

 

[SeekingJana]

I understand. No scent past the immediate area of the parked car. Reason not known?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I understand. No scent past the immediate area of the parked car. Reason not known?

The dog handler said the dog circled as if RFG got into another car. That is not proof that he did get into another car. It is a possibility, however.

http://www.post-gazette.com/frontpa...-County-DA/stories/200504220310#ixzz0MQYNOmMd

 

[SuperSmith]

Would anyone like to share their knowledge of the Raystown Dam/Lake sighting?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Would anyone like to share their knowledge of the Raystown Dam/Lake sighting?

10:30 to 11:00 AM on 4/14/05.

The witness was a "doctor," though that might not mean a physician.

It was near a boat landing (which doesn't limit it to one location).

RFG would have had enough time to get there from after the meeting earlier that day, even if returning home to change his clothing first (45 to 60 minute trip to the closest landing).

I think the lake would be open to boating either on 4/15 or 4/16/05.

 

[MissJ]

JMO, but why would Gricar need to walk away. He was not married to PF and could have waited for his retirement and taken his retirement and assets and said, "see ya". How would this be any worse than the family not knowing what happened to him. A mere $250,000 or more doesn't go a long way. This man was not that old.

 

[SeekingJana]

Re: why an unmarried DA near retirement might leave.

I re-watched the "Disappeared" segment on Ray recently.
2 of his friends, one from the DA's office and another who was an attorney, said to the effect that it would be just like Ray to leave in such a way as to confound the police, to outsmart LE. I thought they were joking at first, because permanently leaving your daughter's life and all your retirement you've worked for is a very drastic measure.
However, the 2 men were serious. They apparently know a side of his personality that we don't have insight into.. or they each don't want to believe he could be dead.
I confess that I suffer a great load of the latter, but realistically KNOW he may well be long- dead and the body has not been found yet.

In all fairness, I do consider options when looking at theories concerning foul play.

 

[margarita25]

This case reminds me somewhat of Royal 'Scoop' Daniel, the Breckenridge lawyer who vanished in 2007. There is an episode about him on Disappeared, Season 1, Episode 4, "Royal Secrets", available on netflix. I'd be curious to know if anyone here thinks a similar scenario is plausible in Ray's case (I really recommend watching the episode before googling Scoop's case in order to avoid a spoiler.)

"The disappearance of attorney Royal Scoop Daniel paralyzes a mountain town in Colorado and monopolizes more than three law enforcement agencies. The case shocks everyone involved."

 

[SeekingJana]

Going to my Netflix account right now! Thank you. I think cases with parallels to Mr. Gricar's are very interesting.

OK, just watched "Disappeared" on Royal "Scoop" Daniel III.
He had access to funds which Mr. Gricar, as a county employee, didn't have. I see no true known correlation between the two cases except that both were attorneys, and they were the same age at the time they disappeared.
Still, it's an interesting study in human behavior.

Thanks for posting the case.. the contrasts between Royal Daniels III and Ray Gricar are many, in both social habits and work ethic, and this segment highlights them well.

I did notice that CO called in the CBI and FBI straight away, at the beginning of his disappearance. I give them high praise for doing what is supposed to be done when a person goes missing. Kidnapping is ALWAYS a possibility and kidnapping falls under the jurisdiction of the FBI !!!
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SPOILER
The only question I actually have re: " Scoop" is WHY didn't he go to Brazil? The USA has or had at that time no extradition treaty in place with Brazil for " activities" such as his. He could have gotten away with what he tried to do. I am left wondering if he also stole his Brazilian clients' money, which would make Brazil a hostile place for him...

 

[SeekingJana]

For a few years, we had a poster or two following the Gricar case who were staying up to date on WS's posted UIDs for a possible match.

Is anyone doing this now?

If not, does someone need to pick up the searches? I am absolutely horrible in the UID section which is one reason I am asking. His unidentified remains could be found 1,000 miles away from PA, but described to a " T" and I might not catch it.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I have not done it recently, I did look at the Doe network (I think) a few years ago. Nothing at that time.

RFG's DNA is in the database.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

JMO, but why would Gricar need to walk away. He was not married to PF and could have waited for his retirement and taken his retirement and assets and said, "see ya". How would this be any worse than the family not knowing what happened to him. A mere $250,000 or more doesn't go a long way. This man was not that old.

One thing is that, if he were collecting a pension, his mailing address may have been required to have been disclosed. For at least some state pensions, that is public information, unless there is a court order preventing its disclosure.

If safety was part of his concern, that part would make sense. Jana's point is valid as well, which I'd like to explore separately.