PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #11

[J. J. in Phila]

Perhaps an undisclosed illness? Perhaps he felt threatened? Or perhaps good planning on his part being that after 30 years of prosecuting he had made plenty of enemies.

The timing would be important with the first two points. He bought the Mini in 2004. If there was an assumed imminent threat, why drive into a remote area without cell phone coverage? If it wasn't imminent, what was it?

Illness is possible, and would certainly raise the possibility of suicide (even a nonfatal illness, or one not immediately fatal). His medical records didn't show anything, however.

I do not follow on the third point. Please elaborate? (Seriously.)

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I tend to believe he did pay off the mortgage however I do not think it was a lot. I believe her property was assessed at a mere 60k. He could have been paying the property taxes too.

The assessed value was just over $33 k, but the last sale price was $66 k (I'd prefer not to post the address). PEF would have inherited part of the house, in all probability, so it would have been a mortgage to buy out her siblings' share. She would not necessarily have had to borrow all of the money even to buy them out.

 

[SuperSmith]

The timing would be important with the first two points. He bought the Mini in 2004. If there was an assumed imminent threat, why drive into a remote area without cell phone coverage? If it wasn't imminent, what was it?

Illness is possible, and would certainly raise the possibility of suicide (even a nonfatal illness, or one not immediately fatal). His medical records didn't show anything, however.

I do not follow on the third point. Please elaborate? (Seriously.)

3rd point being DA's make alot of enemies over the years by way of prosecuting criminals. Criminals aren't always in jail forever and even family members of the convicted could target a DA. Probably a smart move to have a good life insurance policy for such a potential dangerous occupation.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

3rd point being DA's make alot of enemies over the years by way of prosecuting criminals. Criminals aren't always in jail forever and even family members of the convicted could target a DA. Probably a smart move to have a good life insurance policy for such a potential dangerous occupation.

That wouldn't explain the low size of the estate. That is what Trackergd was referring to in his post.

It would make sense for RFG to take some estate planning steps, e.g. a single premium life insurance policy or moving money into a trust. It would also make sense for his daughter to do some estate planning of her own. It wouldn't make too much sense to do it just before retirement and not much earlier in his career, if he did it because he was worried about criminals coming to get him.

 

[Simply Caustic]

I tend to think he purchased a term life policy when Lara was small, and probably put it with family papers somewhere and forgot about it.
The purchase of life insurance BEFORE he retired that same year and within a year or two before he disappeared would be a huge red flag on many levels, I think.

However, there is one point that makes me wonder if he did get a policy issued. We know he apparently did not have annual medical wellness physicals. It has been stated that he had no known health issues without a caveat that he didn't have yearly medical assessments. A hypothesis can be made that the physical exam referred to as confirming his health was related to the issuance of a life insurance policy. I don't know, of course, but I do remember performing these thorough physical exams for a national insurance company when I was very young because they paid RNs quite well.

I think it would have been extremely imprudent if he had even attempted to acquire life insurance for a period of a year before he disappeared IF his departure was planned. This time frame also clashes with his needs post- retirement ( assuming he was planning on traveling with Patty, etc. after retirement).

Next, what about Patty?
Is it reasonable to think he didn't plan any type of annuity for her in the event of his death?

I don't know that he spent one dime of his savings on insurance policies but the time frame of his upcoming retirement may have made a difference. I remember how my dad, a State employee, and my mother, had to make difficult decisions regarding health and life insurance coverage continuance and supplementation when my dad retired at an age slightly younger than Ray's age. To their extreme disadvantages, they dropped all group coverage.

I was born in 1980-and my family purchased one of those life insurance policies, small premium, small payout, relatively speaking..and promptly forgot all about it until my mother passed suddenly in her early fifties.

I would have sworn up and down that her policy purchased when she was more established, with a higher monetary value, was her only policy. Yet I was wrong. Great point about the feasibility of forgetting about it.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

 

[SuperSmith]

Some other items that likely would've effected RG's expenses could have been Lara's Health & other insurances.

Lara was into horses.

Lara's schooling.

Impossible to know the figures to any of them considering they MAY have been shared expenses with Lara's mom (RG ex-wife)

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Some other items that likely would've effected RG's expenses could have been Lara's Health & other insurances.

Lara was into horses.

Lara's schooling.

Impossible to know the figures to any of them considering they MAY have been shared expenses with Lara's mom (RG ex-wife)

LG's health insurance should have been covered under her parent's policies. Even that would not account for the amount of money we're talking about. Life insurance and car insurance for LG are also never going to come close to accounting for that.

LG was into horses in high school, but she would have been in college by this time. It is exceptionally unlikely that her mother would not have contributed, perhaps the lion's share, of the costs of education. At all points, she was making more than RFG. At the time of the divorce, it was substantially more, because RFG was paid on a part time basis.

The cost was also not huge at the time. I looked at PSU's in 2002-3; at the time it was the most expensive public school in the US; yearly tuition for out of state students was about $16,200. http://tuition.psu.edu/HistoricalRates/TabB2002-03.asp LG's would be less, perhaps substantially so.

 

[SuperSmith]

I wonder if it to be a possibility that Ray helped out his brothers family (widow) after Roy's suicide. Typically life policies do not honor if it is death by suicide. Ray could've been throw money her way for years.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I wonder if it to be a possibility that Ray helped out his brothers family (widow) after Roy's suicide. Typically life policies do not honor if it is death by suicide. Ray could've been throw money her way for years.

There is generally a period where suicide is not covered, but it is normally 2-3 years after the policy issued. That is one of the reasons why I'm looking at the timing of anything in terms of insurance as estate planning. If RFG was planning to commit suicide, a purchase of insurance in February or March of 2003 might be telling.

Here are a few links regarding the suicide clause:

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/insurance/life-insurance-policy-pay-1.aspx

http://insurance.freeadvice.com/information/life/article/271

I did read of one case, in the UK, where one guy waited until the contestability clause expired (2-3 years) and then did kill himself; it is very rare.

 

[SeekingJana]

There are some chronically depressed people who plan suicide over and over. Eventually, some people in this category DO attempt suicide and if not found in time, do succeed. They are termed " accidental suicides" in the psych. community. The thrill is in the planning- but sometimes the attempt is accidentally fatal.

There is also a phenomenon of a type of OCD planning the perfect " life exit". These are suicidal people who also plan every plan-able aspect of their suicide years to decades in advance. Then, when they have everything planned and ready, they take their own lives.

I have counseled clients who have admitted to having suicidal thoughts and making a workable suicide plan for 25+ years. Depression is definitely a chronic disease for the most part.

Given what I know as factual about Mr. Gricar, I would be extremely surprised if he committed suicide, but IF he did, I would expect him to fall into the " planner" category, not the " impulsive act" category.
Bottom line, I understand suicide ideations from a therapeutic standpoint and I do not believe he was a suicidal man.
There is a small chance that he could have been Bi-Polar due to his brother's Bi-Polar disorder and the strong genetic component and resistance to medications. I have NOT read any accounts of reckless behavior by Ray Gricar, only an unscheduled pleasure trip to a Cleveland ball game when his second marriage was falling apart.

Without knowing more, and going simply on photographs, his known actions, Patty's statements that he was a person of habit and routine, I'd say he was not Bi-Polar and was also probably not depressed. I've said why I think he slept more ( or, more accurately, appeared to sleep more) before he disappeared- I think he was communicating with someone on his laptop or doing other computer functions late at night which he chose to do in a quiet and unobserved manner in the household.Therefore, he needed to sleep more during his daytime hours.

This is my theory regarding his mental state. I have given it years of consideration and thought. We don't have to agree, but respect is the way we ride at WS.:loveyou: Thanks.

 

[SuperSmith]

There is generally a period where suicide is not covered, but it is normally 2-3 years after the policy issued. That is one of the reasons why I'm looking at the timing of anything in terms of insurance as estate planning. If RFG was planning to commit suicide, a purchase of insurance in February or March of 2003 might be telling.

Here are a few links regarding the suicide clause:

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/insurance/life-insurance-policy-pay-1.aspx

http://insurance.freeadvice.com/information/life/article/271

I did read of one case, in the UK, where one guy waited until the contestability clause expired (2-3 years) and then did kill himself; it is very rare.

I wasn't talking about RG getting a policy cuz he was suicide. I was bringing up the possibility that he helped his brothers widow after Roy's supposed suicide.

That would further explain some expenses

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I wasn't talking about RG getting a policy cuz he was suicide. I was bringing up the possibility that he helped his brothers widow after Roy's supposed suicide.

Well, and insurance Roy would have bought would have paid off, if issued before that 2-3 year window; at Roy age and with his status as retired, it would be a bit unlikely for him to have suddenly bought insurance, except for estate planning purposes. Also consider that RFG was possibly making less than Roy at that point.

I have never heard of any suggestion that he helped out Roy's family financially, or vice versa. I think Tony was an adult with a successful career at that point, and Chris would graduate into a successful professional career a year later. Certainly by 2001, they could be providing for their mother, if any help was needed.

In comparison, RFG may have been the "poor relation," though that is obviously relative.

 

[Trackergd]

I have consulted three IT professionals about the computer and hard drive.

I had been wondering what was on the hard drive. I would assume that RG would know how to wipe the drive or have a professional do it. RG would have had access to State IT professionals and one would assume he could have had the drive wiped and reformatted without raising any suspicion.

The conditions in which the computer and drive were found smacks of an amateur (but in the end effective) attempt to delete incriminating information.

Kroll Ontrack did attempt to pull data off, and by far they are the best in the business. My guess (and that of my IT consultants) is it may have been magnet wiped and then discarded. Again a more amateur method, but effective.

My personal guess is that an MC would have just shredded it, burned it or dumped it with the body.

 

[SuperSmith]

I have consulted three IT professionals about the computer and hard drive.

I had been wondering what was on the hard drive. I would assume that RG would know how to wipe the drive or have a professional do it. RG would have had access to State IT professionals and one would assume he could have had the drive wiped and reformatted without raising any suspicion.

The conditions in which the computer and drive were found smacks of an amateur (but in the end effective) attempt to delete incriminating information.

Kroll Ontrack did attempt to pull data off, and by far they are the best in the business. My guess (and that of my IT consultants) is it may have been magnet wiped and then discarded. Again a more amateur method, but effective.

My personal guess is that an MC would have just shredded it, burned it or dumped it with the body.

I think it's important to reiterate that the Altoona Mirror did not report that Ray Gricar was killed by the Hells Angel MC. The Mirror reported that a former HA was responsible for putting a hit on Gricar. Anyone could've done the job for the inmate but it seems unlikely that any other HA's would've done it for him being that he was a former member and helped the FBI.

"The source has sat down for extensive interviews with the Mirror in which he contends the killing of Gricar, who vanished April 15, 2005, was at the behest of a former Hells-Angel-turned-informant and was retribution for a stiff state prison sentence stemming from an aggravated assault conviction."

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/c...Police-probe-claim-Gricar-killed.html?nav=742

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The same comment would apply to any "ordered killing."

They did find the empty box for the erasure software and there was a defense attorney who RFG asked about the process. I wish I could shed light on who.

 

[SuperSmith]

The same comment would apply to any "ordered killing."

"In a story published in Friday's Mirror, a state prison inmate claimed that a former Hells-Angel-turned-FBI-informant had Gricar killed.

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/content.detail/id/575024.html

 

[J. J. in Phila]

"In a story published in Friday's Mirror, a state prison inmate claimed that a former Hells-Angel-turned-FBI-informant had Gricar killed.

http://www.altoonamirror.com/page/content.detail/id/575024.html

That would still apply to any ordered killing. It would be very unlikely for any killer to erase and toss, or even separate and toss, the drive. No killer would know what was on the drive, or if RFG copied it to other locations.

 

[SuperSmith]

That would still apply to any ordered killing. It would be very unlikely for any killer to erase and toss, or even separate and toss, the drive. No killer would know what was on the drive, or if RFG copied it to other locations.

I do not think anyone can definitively or responsibly say that "it would be very unlikely for any killer to erase and toss, or even separate and toss, the drive."

A 12 year old could do that. Perhaps you could elaborate directly what you base your belief that a killer couldn't do this.

I will agree that it is more unlikely that a killer wouldn't know what was on the laptop however it certainly isn't impossible. Especially if it was someone who was very familiar or close to RG.

Aside from that it could've been that the killer(s) weren't really interested in the laptop at all, RG just happened to have it that day, they destroyed it.

:cheer:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I do not think anyone can definitively or responsibly say that "it would be very unlikely for any killer to erase and toss, or even separate and toss, the drive."

A 12 year old could do that. Perhaps you could elaborate directly what you base your belief that a killer couldn't do this.

I will agree that it is more unlikely that a killer would know what was on the laptop however it certainly isn't impossible. Especially if it was someone who was very familiar or close to RG.

Aside from that it could've been that the killer(s) weren't really interested in the laptop at all, RG just happened to have it that day, they destroyed it.

:cheer:

I think Trackergd made the point quite well.

It would be hugely unlikely that any killer would even know of the existence of the laptop. It would be impossible for a killer to know if RFG copied any hypothetical data to another source. To know that, the killer would have to have been in the physical presence of RFG since the hypothetical data was placed on the laptop. No one was in the physical presence of RFG all of the time in even the 48 hours prior to his disappearance.

It would be easy to copy the data to a portable device, to another computer, to an online storage area, or to print out the data.

In theory, RFG could have taken the laptop with him to Lake Raystown and copied the data to a flash drive there or gone home after the 4/14/05 prison board meeting and copied the data to a flash drive. He could further copied it from a flash drive when he returned to the Courthouse that night. It would be impossible for a killer to know that.

 

[SuperSmith]

I think Trackergd made the point quite well.

It would be hugely unlikely that any killer would even know of the existence of the laptop. It would be impossible for a killer to know if RFG copied any hypothetical data to another source. To know that, the killer would have to have been in the physical presence of RFG since the hypothetical data was placed on the laptop. No one was in the physical presence of RFG all of the time in even the 48 hours prior to his disappearance.

It would be easy to copy the data to a portable device, to another computer, to an online storage area, or to print out the data.

In theory, RFG could have taken the laptop with him to Lake Raystown and copied the data to a flash drive there or gone home after the 4/14/05 prison board meeting and copied the data to a flash drive. He could further copied it from a flash drive when he returned to the Courthouse that night. It would be impossible for a killer to know that.

It has always amazed me how different minds work, formulate an opinion, etc.

J.J. you and are on opposite ends of the spectrum to be sure. What you just posted "I, myself" got none of that from Tracker.

As I said I thought it was important to note that the Altoona Mirror didn't report that RG was killed by a HA member rather a hit was put on RG by a former member.

To respond on your point. It wouldn't be hard at all for a killer(s) to have knowledge of the laptop if he had it with him that day. They could've just been ditching it or tossing it to make it look like a suicide or walkaway or to keep LE in Lewisburg.

I suggested that the target was RG, not the laptop.


:judge: