PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[J. J. in Phila]

When was the first time you posted a more than 50% chance that Ray Gricar intentionally disappeared himself, on any Internet forum? That is a simple question.

I already know the answer...but I think it might be of interest to others here.
I am not trying to embarrass you. You are entitled to your own opinion.

I do not recall using the term, "intentionally disappeared himself," on any forum. I have used the terms "walkaway" or "voluntary departure." I think it was early in 2011 that I gave either above a 50% chance of being an explanation. Perhaps ironically, it dropped slightly during the Sandusky Scandal, only to go back to where it was at the end.

I expect that the odds on both suicide and voluntary departure will increase due to the financial data. Estate planning, which I would not rule out, could account for the low assets. Estate planning could point to RFG anticipating that he would die in the relatively near future or to RFG realizing that, at some point, he would be declared dead.

 

[Saunterer]

I am not certain how much his family members know about many of the details of the case. The comments of TG regarding the "Mystery Woman" were quite surprising, especially since the information had been reported in the press prior to the DA's Office releasing it. There has not been a lot of contact between the family and LE, according to both.

I am quite confident that Ray Gricar's family knows way more than any of us do (or will ever know). I have zero confidence in the news media in accurately reporting any aspect of Ray Gricar's disappearance. They are as useless as teats on a bull!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I am quite confident that Ray Gricar's family knows way more than any of us do (or will ever know). I have zero confidence in the news media in accurately reporting any aspect of Ray Gricar's disappearance. They are as useless as teats on a bull!

Based on TG's public statements, I do not agree, at least in regard to LE. I would agree that LG certainly has better knowledge of the assets that the public does. However, that might not be saying too much.

 

[Saunterer]

I do not recall using the term, "intentionally disappeared himself," on any forum. I have used the terms "walkaway" or "voluntary departure." I think it was early in 2011 that I gave either above a 50% chance of being an explanation. Perhaps ironically, it dropped slightly during the Sandusky Scandal, only to go back to where it was at the end.

Others might benefit from the truth. But, for the sake of argument, what do you mean by the "end" of what? Some notion that Ray Gricar did not fulfill his duty as DA in 1998? You have harped on Ray Gricar intentionally disappearing himself for many, many years...without the slightest fathomable, logical reason why.

I expect that the odds on both suicide and voluntary departure will increase due to the financial data. Estate planning, which I would not rule out, could account for the low assets. Estate planning could point to RFG anticipating that he would die in the relatively near future or to RFG realizing that, at some point, he would be declared dead.

This is just wrong thinking, in my opinion.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Others might benefit from the truth. But, for the sake of argument, what do you mean by the "end" of what? Some notion that Ray Gricar did not fulfill his duty as DA in 1998? You have harped on Ray Gricar intentionally disappearing himself for many, many years...without the slightest fathomable, logical reason why.

End of the Sandusky trial. I would not blame anyone for not wanting to being swept into it.

I have made no suggestion that RFG did not fulfill the duties of his office, i.e. he did not abused his discretion nor did he do something illegal (though I will note that others have). I have suggested that RFG used exceedingly poor judgment in exercising some of those duties, uncharacteristically, in the Sandusky case.

This is just wrong thinking, in my opinion.

In my opinion, the documentation, not speculation, says otherwise.

 

[Saunterer]

Based on TG's public statements, I do not agree, at least in regard to LE. I would agree that LG certainly has better knowledge of the assets that the public does. However, that might not be saying too much.

Duly noted. :facepalm:

 

[Saunterer]

Is there ANYONE here who would like to discuss the several reasons (supported, or at least not denied by the scant available public evidence) whereby Ray Gricar was most likely murdered? ANYONE?

It seems to me that the logical assumption to be investigated, from the beginning, should have been foul play. I have no idea (NONE) why any other notion would trump this. I have no reason to believe this is not the case.

Despite all the psychic BS, the flippant news media reports and a whole lot of gibberish from gricar-guru wannabees, the fact remains...no one knows what happened to Ray Gricar.

What happened to Ray Gricar? Tony? Chris? Drew? Lara? Patty? LE? .............Silence! Let it go. Let it go.

NO!!!!!! No way!

 

[nevereverever]

It seems to me that J.J. is pretty open-minded, allowing his or her opinion on the likelihood of one theory or another to change based on developing information.

The fact is, there is no real evidence here of foul play. That doesn't mean it wasn't foul play. Finding a body could totally change everything. But at this point, there isn't any evidence of it.

I, too, put the likelihood of walkaway at the top of my list, based on the facts that are known right now. But that doesn't mean I think it's impossible this was foul play. That definitely remains a possibility. Until he is found, alive or dead, and maybe even not then, we just won't know. It seems nonsensical to me to proclaim that it is clearly one or the other, when there remains so much mystery in this case.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped.

The fact is, there is no real evidence here of foul play. That doesn't mean it wasn't foul play. Finding a body could totally change everything. But at this point, there isn't any evidence of it.

I, too, put the likelihood of walkaway at the top of my list, based on the facts that are known right now. But that doesn't mean I think it's impossible this was foul play. That definitely remains a possibility. Until he is found, alive or dead, and maybe even not then, we just won't know. It seems nonsensical to me to proclaim that it is clearly one or the other, when there remains so much mystery in this case.

I would not rule out foul play, at this point.

This particular piece of evidence, however, does not point to foul play. It could point to RFG hiding money someplace, which could point to voluntary departure. It could point to estate planning, which could point to a planned suicide or to voluntary departure. It could point to RFG losing money on investments, which could point to a reason to commit suicide.

If any of those things are the case, that would not preclude RFG being a foul play victim.

I noticed a comment referring to several members of the Gricar family. TG has long considered the possibility of suicide, from 4/16/05.

 

[SeekingJana]

Is there ANYONE here who would like to discuss the several reasons (supported, or at least not denied by the scant available public evidence) whereby Ray Gricar was most likely murdered? ANYONE?

It seems to me that the logical assumption to be investigated, from the beginning, should have been foul play. I have no idea (NONE) why any other notion would trump this. I have no reason to believe this is not the case.

Despite all the psychic BS, the flippant news media reports and a whole lot of gibberish from gricar-guru wannabees, the fact remains...no one knows what happened to Ray Gricar.

What happened to Ray Gricar? Tony? Chris? Drew? Lara? Patty? LE? .............Silence! Let it go. Let it go.

NO!!!!!! No way!

Sure, I'll discuss why I think Ray Gricar is dead. It's the most likely thing to have happened for at least 2 reasons:

1) Past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior.
He was a stable man, almost 60, almost retired, was not known to flights of fancy to parts unknown except for ONE marital spat in which he went to a public sports arena to watch a Cleveland Indians ball game.
Therefore, with a history of showing up at work early and working late, with retirement almost upon him, and with a daughter he loved dearly in his life, it is illogical that he would have walked off without a glance backward.

2) Occam's Razor. "Simpler explanations are, other things being equal, generally better than more complex ones".
"When you hear hoof beats, think horses, not zebras".
The simplest answer is that he was killed and his body was either hidden, or otherwise has not yet been found.

The unidentified dead section and the " Missing" sections here at WS lead credence to the fact that there are MANY people who were killed and bones only recently found, or who have gone missing with NO evidence of wrong-doing on their part.
The McStay family's remains were just found in the desert after years.
The Jamison family's remains are believed to have been found recently as well. Testing is under way so there is no concrete evidence that it is the family at this point, but the logical question can then be: What other 2 adults and 1 child have gone missing from Pinola Mountain?
The McStays didn't bury themselves. It remains to be seen how the Jamisons are thought to have died, if the remains are theirs, which is quite likely, sadly.

Regarding your mention of people integral to Mr. Gricar's life, then the investigation: LE has never responded in a normal manner regarding this case. Karen Arnold points this out in her blog, and I believe her.

Lastly, I would like to respectfully say that it is really not up to us to ask why Mr. Gricar's family and his gf are not speaking publicly at this time. The families and other loved ones of the missing here at WS are treated as victims also.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

In both the McStay and Jamison cases, the bodies were found within 5 years, in fairly remote locations. In the Jamison case, murder-suicide had not been ruled out, and there is the possibility of death by exposure.

While it is possible for a body to be hidden for a long period time, e.g. as in the Leighty case, it is a rarity, even in the area.

The problem is that all of the circumstantial evidence is pointing in the direction of voluntary departure. Some of it could point to suicide as well, like the financial evidence, some of it could point to foul play, the "clandestine meeting" aspect, but both of those can also point to walkaway.

The scenario that fits what evidence we have, in toto, is walkaway.

 

[SeekingJana]

In both the McStay and Jamison cases, the bodies were found within 5 years, in fairly remote locations. In the Jamison case, murder-suicide had not been ruled out, and there is the possibility of death by exposure.

While it is possible for a body to be hidden for a long period time, e.g. as in the Leighty case, it is a rarity, even in the area.

The problem is that all of the circumstantial evidence is pointing in the direction of voluntary departure. Some of it could point to suicide as well, like the financial evidence, some of it could point to foul play, the "clandestine meeting" aspect, but both of those can also point to walkaway.

The scenario that fits what evidence we have, in toto, is walkaway.

Let's see- weren't bones believed to be up to 10 years old found recently in York County, PA?
Not even in a remote area.

I'm definitely not saying those remains belong to any particular person, just that remains are discarded or hidden in a variety of ways and it would be short-sighted, IMO, to discount any theory of death based upon the fact that no remains have been found as yet.

As for rarities, almost everything about this case is very unusual. I would not be at all surprised for it to have a tragic but rare ending, or even, no ending in any of our lifetimes.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The York remains may have been as young as 3 years old. It is still a rarity.

We did have a suicide in the Lewisburg area, Pastor Jose Rosa, a local minister who was about to be charged with child molestation type charges. He walked into the woods and hung himself. His remains were located within a year.

It is obviously not impossible for a body to lay hidden or undiscovered for years, but years have passed. It is a rarity.

 

[nevereverever]

Hadn't Gricar recently done internet searches on how to destroy a hard drive and water damage to laptop computers? And sure enough, his laptop was found in the river, the hard drive separate, and damaged beyond any data recovery, even by experts, right? That also seems to point to voluntary walkaway to me.

 

[SeekingJana]

It's unknown who put the laptop and HD in the river.
Bob Beuhner says that the key is the laptop. Whoever killed Ray Gricar wanted the info on the laptop.
It cannot be proven or disproven that Mr. Gricar threw the laptop in the river, and the act of destroying the laptop does not negate foul play during the time he was in Lewisburg, IMO.

 

[nevereverever]

It's unknown who put the laptop and HD in the river.
Bob Beuhner says that the key is the laptop. Whoever killed Ray Gricar wanted the info on the laptop.
It cannot be proven or disproven that Mr. Gricar threw the laptop in the river, and the act of destroying the laptop does not negate foul play during the time he was in Lewisburg, IMO.

I guess that depends on your definition of "proven." True, there is no eyewitness who saw him do it. But to me, doing the searches about how to destroy your hard drive and water damage to your computer, then taking your work computer on a road trip, and said computer being found thrown in a nearby river, and the hard drive the same (but separated from it and thoroughly destroyed), is circumstantial proof that he did destroy it. LE makes cases on stuff like this all the time.

Also, why would Gricar be wanting to destroy his laptop computer or the hard drive from it? Seems an odd thing for a prosecutor to be doing. In fact, it would be a criminal act if he did it since it was county property. What information was he trying to destroy?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I would not say the searches point specifically to walkaway. A good place to toss a drive/laptop, if you don't want the contents known, is a river 50 miles from home. We know he wanted to destroy whatever was on the computer for about a year prior to his disappearance.

No perp could have known that whatever was on that drive was exclusively on that drive. RFG could have copied to another source or printed it out. Destroying that laptop would not get rid of any copied data.

 

[cutter99]

If he committed suicide, why no note? He had experienced his brother's suicide and saw what his family went through with that. Why leave anyone not knowing anything, even if he was a walkaway?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If he committed suicide, why no note? He had experienced his brother's suicide and saw what his family went through with that. Why leave anyone not knowing anything, even if he was a walkaway?

Suicide can be genetic, so what the others went through may not come into play. Most suicides lack notes.

The estate settlement could be the key to the second part. If he tells people he's leaving, they cannot declare him dead quite as easily.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

There can be a genetic component to suicide: http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news..._identifies_genetic_link_to_attempted_suicide

That would prove that RFG committed suicide, but "hurting the family" would not necessarily come into play.