PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[J. J. in Phila]

Respectfully snipped.

I hope it's OK if I take parts of your walkaway theory and apply them here,

You believe he was likely in Lewisburg on the 15th in his car, in the SOS, and was seen with a woman. What purpose did the woman serve? Was she a secret lover? An old friend, a new friend? Was he advising her on antique toy purchases? Or did she provide something he would need to leave the country? A fake USA ID, a fake USA passport, the two things would be necessary to get out of the USA by plane and go to Slovenia, I'd think. I'd also not think he would be manufacturing his own faked documents.

Possible, but as we've both noted, he wouldn't need fake ID.

Also, if Sandusky was involved, maybe he went over the laptop with a fine- tooth comb before he allowed the dumping, or used another form of erasure, like overwriting the HD manually, or placing a large strong magnet on it. This would take time. Maybe hours.

Here are the major problems:

1. RFG didn't have the laptop in 1998 (Micron didn't have them up until late 1998 or early 1999).

2. There is no way Sandusky, or anyone else, could know if RFG copied the files.

You always said " I'll believe in walkaway if I can figure out how he left Lewisburg". Paraphrasing, but that one thing has been your sticking point. Not where he went afterwards or how he got there, but how he left Lewisburg. Remember?

It is possible, along with a few other methods, but "possible" is not evidence.

As for what he did, I believe the Bloomington sighting was accurate. I believe he had already obtained dual citizenship on a prior vacation to Slovenia. Reference O'Kicki case you posted.

Southfield, MI, not Bloomington.

Oh, and I just found a video of Sandusky where he's smoking. Very briefly, then he puts it out. Just saying.

Could yo post a link? That is interesting.

 

[SeekingJana]

Respectfully snipped.

Possible, but as we've both noted, he wouldn't need fake ID.

He might have an easier time boarding an international flight under an alias.. Kind of throws the US LE off the track since they obviously were looking for him, even calling in the FBI re: the overseas Missing posters and the CIA had some input.

Here are the major problems:

1. RFG didn't have the laptop in 1998 (Micron didn't have them up until late 1998 or early 1999).

I know this might seem to matter, but if you read my theory, I believe it's possible there WAS Sandusky- related info on his Micron county- issued laptop. Since Mr. Gricar took the responsibility for closing Victim 6's file in his office, at least, after the Seasock report, there's every chance that he kept up with what JS was doing, reports, and then there is MM and his personal connection. As I said, I think it's possible that by 2005, JS was known to be engaging in criminality with child victims, and the coaching staff or the PSU police may have asked for guidance informally. Mr. Gricar could have definitely made computer notes on what was said, and what was asked.

2. There is no way Sandusky, or anyone else, could know if RFG copied the files.

That's true, but who had committed a crime, thus had a need for more help? He could either trust and help, or he could have said " Kiss my grits" and declined to meet Mr. Gricar to work out the deal.

Southfield, MI, not Bloomington.

Thanks. I corrected.

Could yo post a link? That is interesting.

http://www.wpxi.com/videos/news/raw-video-jerry-sandusky-standing-on-the-back/vF3td/

Start at the very beginning. What appears to be smoking and then dropping the stub on the deck occurs at approximately the 05 mark. Just as it starts. I can look for other videos of him smoking as this one is a " blink and you miss it" moment.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Sandusky was just rubbing his chin.

The problem, as I see it, is that there would be no way for Sandusky to know that he had everything they had on him.

In theory, though, he could have ben the helper.

 

[SeekingJana]

Sandusky was just rubbing his chin.

The problem, as I see it, is that there would be no way for Sandusky to know that he had everything they had on him.

In theory, though, he could have ben the helper.

OK, I wasn't really certain about the smoking, but at 200% magnification and above, there appears to be a puff of smoke. We will agree that it's not a smoking action.

Nope, Sandusky definitely didn't know everything " they" had on him, but we are talking about Sandusky and Gricar. If Victim 6, who stayed close to Sandusky for years ever mentioned the investigation and the time frame, wouldn't it be easy for Sandusky to put 2 and 2 together regarding the boy's place of residence and the prosecutorial jurisdiction? Maybe JS was doing his form of " damage control" elsewhere. I have read about contracts he tried to get the boys to sign as they aged. JS tended to act impulsively and deal or not deal with it later.

Or maybe it was a friend with a RV. Either works, but it would have to be someone with reason not to talk, if the walkaway was successful. A very good friend, or someone who didn't need the reward money.

It's just a theory, but it fills in some holes you've had for a long time.
We may never have any answers or remains.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

OK, I wasn't really certain about the smoking, but at 200% magnification and above, there appears to be a puff of smoke. We will agree that it's not a smoking action.

Nope, Sandusky definitely didn't know everything " they" had on him, but we are talking about Sandusky and Gricar. If Victim 6, who stayed close to Sandusky for years ever mentioned the investigation and the time frame, wouldn't it be easy for Sandusky to put 2 and 2 together regarding the boy's place of residence and the prosecutorial jurisdiction? Maybe JS was doing his form of " damage control" elsewhere. I have read about contracts he tried to get the boys to sign as they aged. JS tended to act impulsively and deal or not deal with it later.

Or maybe it was a friend with a RV. Either works, but it would have to be someone with reason not to talk, if the walkaway was successful. A very good friend, or someone who didn't need the reward money.

It's just a theory, but it fills in some holes you've had for a long time.
We may never have any answers or remains.

Sandusky knew about the investigation because he was interviewed by Schreffler and Lauro. Thew would have had to have a greater investigation.

The RV is a possibility.

 

[SeekingJana]

I knew someone interviewed Sandusky re: Victim 6. I have tuned out the Sandusky horrors from the beginning. Mostly because I knew Mr. Gricar could not be responsible for what happened later due to his decision regarding Victim 6.

Anyway, maybe now there is one more possible piece of the puzzle for the walkaway theorists- he could have had help with lodging, transportation and all meals and elimination needs via a RV of some sort.

I still believe he was a man of habit, a man of extreme integrity who would not just " walk off". The people who have done this in their adult lives tend to be under the influence of substance abuse, facing criminal charges, are known to have someone else they are leaving with or because of, or have other mitigating factors.

Mr. Gricar was extremely settled into his life, it seems. I keep going back to a father leaving his only daughter. I cannot fathom this. Not for a minute can I believe he left Lara, but oh gee, the money he left her was compensation enough. No, it's not.

My firm belief is that he has been deceased since April 15, 2005. COD unknown, MOD unknown, location of remains, unknown at present. I'd much rather he be alive, but I truly do not think he is in my heart of hearts because of Lara, as well as the integrity I believe he had regarding truth and doing the right thing. JMO, and I'd rather be wrong than right this time.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

RFG had not been in the same household with LG for at least a decade before he disappeared.

 

[SeekingJana]

RFG had not been in the same household with LG for at least a decade before he disappeared.

I left home for college at age 17. If something had happened to one of my parents and they were simply called "missing", I honestly do not know how I would have gone on living due to the grief. AND I definitely would then think about the 10 years I could have been closer to them.

I hope Lara has no regrets about leaving PA. Sometimes, some of us really do need to get away from our roots to find happiness.
Wherever we are, the grief is just as intense, I think.

 

[nevereverever]

Is there a comprehensive timeline on this case somewhere?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Is there a comprehensive timeline on this case somewhere?

See here: http://www.centredaily.com/2011/02/26/2545798/index-of-the-known-evidence-february.html

The information on the witnesses is under the section on the investigation.

Note that the Wilkes-Barre sighting has been ruled out.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Just adding, there was at least one witness that saw RFG on the way to Lewisburg.

One was reported seeing RFG turning on 192, but the time was not released. It is not on the list.

 

[Fluffy Puppy]

Although I certainly hope this is a voluntary walk-away, one thing has always nagged at me: If he was planning on walking away - WHY would he tell people he was heading to Lewsiburg that day? One would think he would tell them one thing then head in the opposite direction if he was planning on disappearing. He would only want them to THINK he went to Lewisburg - right?

I read here often looking for thoughts and information, so thank you all for keeping this conversation alive.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Although I certainly hope this is a voluntary walk-away, one thing has always nagged at me: If he was planning on walking away - WHY would he tell people he was heading to Lewsiburg that day? One would think he would tell them one thing then head in the opposite direction if he was planning on disappearing. He would only want them to THINK he went to Lewisburg - right?

I read here often looking for thoughts and information, so thank you all for keeping this conversation alive.

RFG said that he heading in the direction of Lewisburg, but not that this would be his destination.

It looks like the call was made quite close to Centre Hall, if not in or west of it. It was a rural area, and part of the route was out of cell phone coverage. It had the effect of drawing LE's initial attention to the area between Centre Hall and Lewisburg. That could have been the intent. If I am Lewisburg, and don't LE to find me/my car, I would want them searching for me 30-40 miles away from Lewisburg.

Also, the Mini was in PEF's name and RFG might have wanted it to be discovered eventually (which could also point to suicide).

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Michael T. Madeira (MTM), who was RFG's immediate successor as DA, will be ceasing to practice law. http://www.centredaily.com/2013/12/11/3937865/former-centre-county-district.html

 

[Trackergd]

Looking at all the links and J.J's blog, I am getting a much better picture of the Lewisburg events.

Some Questions:

1. Is the rusty bridge directly behind the SOS a bridge someone could walk out onto with a degree of safety?

2. Could the computer and hard drive been tossed from this bridge?

3. What is the proximity of the spot the mini was parked in relative to the shops and the bridge?


I am about 90% sure that RG went to Lewisburg to meet someone and either by previous plan or by events as they unfolded, dumped the computer and drive in the river. I suspect it was not the first time he was there.

With the obvious deception to those close to him as to where he was going and what he was up to, coupled with the above and the research into destroying the information on the hard drive, this is looking more like a walk away or suicide, rather than death by misadventure.

Suicide Theory:

RG knew quite a bit more about the Sandusky case than most anyone else other than Sandusky himself and the victims. It is possible he knew that Sandusky would not stop his molesting or someone would blow the lid off and that at some point the cat would be out of the bag and RG might be accused of covering up evidence or miss-routing the investigation on purpose or by omission/error. A good career ruined and a loss of face to himself and his family.

Walk Away Theory:

Same as above with the addition of an assistant in the planning (possibly the woman he was meeting with).

While Sandusky might have not known what was on the computer, RG did and that it could be used against him were it to come to light, hence the research on how to destroy the drive.

I have some degree of suspicion that there was an "agent provocateur" in this somewhere, either from Sandusky, the College, LE or an yet unknown "interested party".

An outlier to this would be that he was making a deal with someone over the data on the computer and the buyer was either not interested or offloaded the information onto a thumb drive or external hard drive and they parted ways....and the computer and drive into the river.

I am of the opinion that the computer and drive were not dumped off the car bridge as that would be way too obvious and the chances of being seen, too great.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Respectfully Snipped:

Some Questions:

1. Is the rusty bridge directly behind the SOS a bridge someone could walk out onto with a degree of safety?

2. Could the computer and hard drive been tossed from this bridge?

3. What is the proximity of the spot the mini was parked in relative to the shops and the bridge?

1. The railroad (rusty) bridged had some type of a barrier for vehicles when I there, either earthen or logs. Someone could have climbed across it, on foot. I didn't, but someone could get out there.

2. It would have been impossible for the drive to have been tossed from either bridge and end up where it was found. Looking at the force of the water, I would doubt that it was enough to move the laptop more than a few feet downstream from where it was found, so I would say virtually impossible for it to have been tossed from the RR bridge and ended up there.

3. The RR bridge was basically behind and to the south of the SOS. My guess would be 150 yards.


https://picasaweb.google.com/LookingforRay

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped again.

Suicide Theory:

RG knew quite a bit more about the Sandusky case than most anyone else other than Sandusky himself and the victims. It is possible he knew that Sandusky would not stop his molesting or someone would blow the lid off and that at some point the cat would be out of the bag and RG might be accused of covering up evidence or miss-routing the investigation on purpose or by omission/error. A good career ruined and a loss of face to himself and his family.

Any theory is a possible motive for suicide. I would have thought, that, barring something illegal on RFG's part, he could have prosecuted Sandusky in 2005.

Walk Away Theory:

Same as above with the addition of an assistant in the planning (possibly the woman he was meeting with).

While Sandusky might have not known what was on the computer, RG did and that it could be used against him were it to come to light, hence the research on how to destroy the drive.

I have some degree of suspicion that there was an "agent provocateur" in this somewhere, either from Sandusky, the College, LE or an yet unknown "interested party".

An outlier to this would be that he was making a deal with someone over the data on the computer and the buyer was either not interested or offloaded the information onto a thumb drive or external hard drive and they parted ways....and the computer and drive into the river.

RFG didn't have the computer in 1998, so there would have been other copies of the data.

I am of the opinion that the computer and drive were not dumped off the car bridge as that would be way too obvious and the chances of being seen, too great.

The drive was absolutely not tossed from the bridge to its location. It would be at least 100 yards upstream from the bridge.

The laptop, however, could have been dropped from the bridge.

I did simulations from my car, after checking the measurements of the barrier. I'm shorter than RFG (with a shorter reach), and my car is both lower and wider than a Mini. Stopped for just a few second, I could have made a toss like that, from the driver's seat, provided the passenger window was open. I am less flexible than most people, but I could have done it.

It would be easy to put the laptop on the door window frame (with the window open), and basically just give it a good shove. That would not preclude someone on foot either, but he/she would have to walk in traffic.

RFG could have crossed the bridge at night, and tossed it. If the traffic was heavier, he could have stopped on the bridge and tossed it. Someone in the passenger seat could have tossed it, even without stopping.

It was on the side opposite of the walk, so it wouldn't be the most likely place to toss it.

 

[Hbgchick]

I know Websleuthers have never had the privilege (or the distraction, if you would so judge it) of having had the opportunity to address a member of Ray Gricar's family online...or, for that matter, any of the other principals involved in the investigation. I can only tell you, with certainty, that this forum has not yet begun to find its potential...if you would, individually, start/continue to question that which has been presented here, but never publicly confirmed.

That's actually not true, assuming the individual I was speaking with was who they say they were.

 

[Trackergd]

Snipped again.

Any theory is a possible motive for suicide. I would have thought, that, barring something illegal on RFG's part, he could have prosecuted Sandusky in 2005.

I was not thinking anything illegal, more like he figured out at some point after 2005 that he should have prosecuted Sandusky and might be seen as failing in his duties for not having done so. Might have been guilt for letting a monster slip through his fingers and may speak to his emotional state in the days before he went missing.

RFG didn't have the computer in 1998, so there would have been other copies of the data.

What did he have before the computer? Could the data have been transferred from an earlier computer or entered from notes and the notes disposed of? I can't think of anything else he investigated that would have been so damning as to give him pause to consider his future being at risk.

The drive was absolutely not tossed from the bridge to its location. It would be at least 100 yards upstream from the bridge.

The laptop, however, could have been dropped from the bridge.

I did simulations from my car, after checking the measurements of the barrier. I'm shorter than RFG (with a shorter reach), and my car is both lower and wider than a Mini. Stopped for just a few second, I could have made a toss like that, from the driver's seat, provided the passenger window was open. I am less flexible than most people, but I could have done it.

It would be easy to put the laptop on the door window frame (with the window open), and basically just give it a good shove. That would not preclude someone on foot either, but he/she would have to walk in traffic.

RFG could have crossed the bridge at night, and tossed it. If the traffic was heavier, he could have stopped on the bridge and tossed it. Someone in the passenger seat could have tossed it, even without stopping.

It was on the side opposite of the walk, so it wouldn't be the most likely place to toss it.

Possible, but I was thinking that everything was done within walking distance and out of sight or potential sight of any passerby.

Odd that he would dispose of the computer and the hard drive so close to each other, even with the expectation that the drive would be non-recoverable. If it were me, I would have put them in two different states or two different rivers. Speaks to limited window of opportunity.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I was not thinking anything illegal, more like he figured out at some point after 2005 that he should have prosecuted Sandusky and might be seen as failing in his duties for not having done so. Might have been guilt for letting a monster slip through his fingers and may speak to his emotional state in the days before he went missing.

He could have filed charges up until his last day in office.

What did he have before the computer? Could the data have been transferred from an earlier computer or entered from notes and the notes disposed of? I can't think of anything else he investigated that would have been so damning as to give him pause to consider his future being at risk.

Possibly paper before that; RFG was not known for being tech savvy. The reports were faxed. He could have scanned them, but he would have had to destroy the originals.

Possible, but I was thinking that everything was done within walking distance and out of sight or potential sight of any passerby.

Except for someone right behind him on they bridge, or someone watching the bridge from the bank, no one would see it, even in daylight.

Odd that he would dispose of the computer and the hard drive so close to each other, even with the expectation that the drive would be non-recoverable. If it were me, I would have put them in two different states or two different rivers. Speaks to limited window of opportunity.

Yes, it does, or desire not to leave the laptop, sans drive, in the Mini.