PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[MissJ]

First, I would note that RFG has missing almost three times as long as McStay family, with no evidence of foul play. Arguably, the search for RFG was more extensive than the McStays. It certainly began earlier in the disappearance.

Second, my understanding of how the pension system works is that it would be advantageous financially, to the family, if the person "dies" late in the career. The would also be tax advantages. Someone wanting to provide for his heirs could disappear or commit suicide for those purposes. That may or may not have been RFG's intent, but that was the effect] of this.

Third, it obviously would not make a difference with suicide. RFG, if alive, may be in a location where he can get medical coverage or may feel that, if anything happens, he doesn't want treatment.

LE stated there was no evidence of foul play in the McStay case as well.
No one really knows how extensive the McStay case investigation really was. The FBI were involved for sure. They were found by a dirt bike rider.

When anyone is involved in an accident I don't see them turning down treatment.

 

[MissJ]

The McStays were missing 3 years and 9 or 10 months.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

What did he have to gain by walking away? Seriously? Go live off the grid for what reason? If someone threatened his family I could believe it. He could live anywhere he wanted or go anywhere he wanted. If he had a huge bank account somewhere I could maybe believe it.

Well, we have the unaccounted for funds. So there is the possibility that that there is a "huge bank account" out there. If that money was in an offshore account, it might have difficult or impossible to bring it back in, without setting off red flags.

I have found out that RFG complained to friends about paying capital gains taxes. That may be associated with his divorce, but it would indicate that there some investments that he made a net profit on at some point in the years before he disappeared. That would not have been associated with his house.

There is also the possibility that he did have a fear that some old defendant might come looking for him. It may not have been a reasonable one, but that doesn't mean RFG didn't have those thoughts.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The McStays were missing 3 years and 9 or 10 months.

And RFG has been missing for 8 years and just over 8 months.

Further, IIRC, the investigation into the McStays was not immediate. There was a delay between last contact and when they were reported missing. An initial safety check by LE yielded nothing.

In RFG's case, it was about 12 hours after last contact when the police began to do something and less than 36 hours before they started gathering evidence. Had that time frame been the case with the McStays case, it might have been a much different outcome.

LE response t the report that RFG was missing was exceptionally quick.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped

When anyone is involved in an accident I don't see them turning down treatment.

I have heard of a number of people declining treatment after an accident.

 

[SuperSmith]

Well, we have the unaccounted for funds. So there is the possibility that that there is a "huge bank account" out there. If that money was in an offshore account, it might have difficult or impossible to bring it back in, without setting off red flags.

No, "WE" DO NOT have unaccounted for funds. This is backed up by Law Enforcements statements.

[/QUOTE]I have found out that RFG complained to friends about paying capital gains taxes. That may be associated with his divorce, but it would indicate that there some investments that he made a net profit on at some point in the years before he disappeared. That would not have been associated with his house.[/QUOTE]

Seems to me that the Capital Gains Tax percentage has decreased considerably over the years.

In the United States, with certain exceptions, individuals and corporations pay income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. Short-term capital gains are taxed at a higher rate: the ordinary income tax rate. The tax rate for individuals on "long-term capital gains", which are gains on assets that have been held for over one year before being sold, is lower than the ordinary income tax rate, and in some tax brackets there is no tax due on such gains. The tax rate on long-term gains was reduced in 1997 via the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 from 28% to 20% and again in 2003, via the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, from 20% to 15% (for individuals, whose highest tax bracket is 15% or more), or from 10% to 5% for individuals in the lowest two income tax brackets (whose highest tax bracket is less than 15%) (See progressive tax). The reduced 15% tax rate on eligible dividends and capital gains, previously scheduled to expire in 2008, was extended through 2010 as a result of the Tax Increase Prevention and Reconciliation Act signed into law by President Bush on 17 May 2006, which also reduced the 5% rate to 0%.[30] Toward the end of 2010, President Obama signed a law extending the reduced rate on eligible dividends until the end of 2012.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax#United_States

 

[SuperSmith]

This is a Centre Daily Times newspaper article and not a blog.

While I recognize that there is not much in the way of foul play evidence I DO believe these quotes by Lara Gricar are evidence that Ray DID NOT walkaway.


Gricar case going cold after third anniversary

By Pete Bosak

April 15, 2008

Three years later, the same three theories remain.

None has yet explained what happened to former Centre County District Attorney Ray Gricar, who disappeared three years ago today.

Was he killed, did he commit suicide, or did he plan his disappearance? Law enforcement is still unable to say. And his family concedes it will take a stroke of luck to find out what became of him.

It is time, they say, to begin moving on. But his 30-year-old daughter, Lara Gricar, is finding that difficult. Living in suburban Seattle, she is getting married in the fall, and tries not to think about her father not being there to give her away.

“I think about him every day,” she said Monday. “Some are harder than others, especially this week. It’s been very, very hard to try to move on. None of us have any closure at this point. We just don’t know what happened.”

Ray Gricar, just months from retirement, took April 15, 2005, off from work. He called his girlfriend, Patty Fornicola, and told her he was taking a drive on state Route 192 and would not be home to let the dog out. She reported him missing later that night.

Fornicola declined to be interviewed for this report.

Gricar’s Mini Cooper was later found abandoned in an antiques mall parking lot in Lewisburg. Months later, his county-issued laptop computer was found in the river there, minus the hard drive that was later found along the river.

“The only way we’re going to see it solved at this point is sheer luck,” said his nephew, Tony Gricar. “It’s going to take a stroke of luck. The investigation thus far hasn’t turned up anything.”

Lara Gricar said she still holds out hope, no matter how slim, that her father is alive and had good reason to leave her and the family behind, perhaps some sort of witness protection program. With her next breath she concedes how unlikely that is, then stops herself, unable to say the word “dead.”

“Obviously, it would have to take a miracle,” she said. “But he would never have intentionally left Patty and me. He just wouldn’t. But at the same time, with the situation we’ve been in it’s just very hard to think … It’s just hard,” she said.

Lara Gricar thought for a time she’d choose another male figure in her family to walk her down the aisle at her wedding but just couldn’t do it.

“I don’t think anyone could even fill his shoes,” she said. “I’m definitely struggling with that. I don’t know how I’m going to fill that void.”

Bellefonte police Detective Matt Rickard took over the Gricar case about a year ago, after the former lead investigator, Bellefonte Officer Darrel Zaccagni, retired. He’s spent considerable time poring through the case files.

“You can only look at that so many times until you come back to those same three theories,” Rickard said. “It’s an aggravating and a frustrating case. What I think it is going to take, short of a body, is for that one person out there who may know something to come forward and be that needle in the haystack we’ve been looking for.”

Tony Gricar praises Rickard for his effort, enthusiasm and apparent tenacity, but said he is still just one man. Tony Gricar again called for a larger agency, such as the state police or state Attorney General’s Office, to take over the case.

Those agencies previously have said they can do nothing more than Bellefonte police have done. Both agencies have assisted Bellefonte police.

Lara Gricar complimented investigators.

“I have to trust that they have done their best,” she said. “I think they’ve done a good job or, with this case, done the best they could do.”

Centre County District Attorney Michael Madeira agreed that even after three years, none of the three theories — murder, suicide or intentional disappearance — can be ruled out.

“I could argue the strengths of all three cases, all three scenarios, and then turn around and argue against them based on the evidence we have,” Madeira said. “Or don’t have.”

Madeira said it has been a “long, long, long” time since police received the last credible new lead.

“I think we’re at the point we’re afraid that, at the rate it’s going, it’s going to fizzle out even more than it already has,” Tony Gricar said.

Lara Gricar said she’s drawn comfort in hearing about the number of people from the Centre County community and beyond who cared about her father.

“I just thank the community for their love and support throughout this whole tragedy and everything these past few years,” Lara Gricar said. “I really do appreciate the love we’ve been given and all of the kind thoughts. My father was definitely loved by the community there, and that has given me strength.”

She said she also has found strength in her father.

“I was the luckiest kid ever in my eyes,” she said. “He gave me so much love and advice and lessons. He truly was amazing. Everything he taught me over the course of my life is helping me get through this.”

http://www.centredaily.com/news/loc...ory/524306.html (link is broke because of archiving)

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Respectfully snipped.

No, "WE" DO NOT have unaccounted for funds. This is backed up by Law Enforcements statements.

Please provide a link to that statement. We have had statements from LE to the amount and that amount is low based on his earnings. We do know that there was no money missing from his office accounts.

Seems to me that the Capital Gains Tax percentage has decreased considerably over the years.

Not really. The highest rate, in the 90's early 2000's was 20%; it dropped to 15% in the early 2000's

In the United States, with certain exceptions, individuals and corporations pay income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. Short-term capital gains are taxed at a higher rate: the ordinary income tax rate.

Just to be clear on this, this would be treated as regular income; the capital gains tax would not apply.

To give you an example of capital gains, suppose Joe buy $10 k worth of stock.

Joe hold it for over a year and sells it for $15 K, a 50% profit in a year was good even in the early 2000's. He sells it in a year when the rate was 20%. Joe pays 20% of the gain. His capital gain is $5000, the increased value of the stock. 20% of $5000 is $1000. So Joe writes out a check for $1000 to the US Treasury. How much money does Joe have?

Joe still has his original investment, because he sold the stock for $15,000; Joe isn't taxed on the whole thing, just the gain. So he sold the stock for $15,000, and paid $1000 in capital gains taxes. $15,000-$1000=$14,000.

There would be both a gain and the initial investment.

Okay, where are both of those things in RFG's case, the initial investment and the captinal gain (after taxes)?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

And we heard, a few years later:

Reached in Washington state, Lara Gricar said she is “trying to close this chapter of my life.” She said that she is not following the PSU scandal and couldn’t comment on what her father’s decision-making process was when Sandusky was investigated.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/i...ared-05-article-1.974806?pgno=1#ixzz2oPr7o8st

How many times have we heard a relative saying, **he/she would never do that** on this message board.

 

[SuperSmith]

And we heard, a few years later:

Reached in Washington state, Lara Gricar said she is “trying to close this chapter of my life.” She said that she is not following the PSU scandal and couldn’t comment on what her father’s decision-making process was when Sandusky was investigated.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/i...ared-05-article-1.974806?pgno=1#ixzz2oPr7o8st

How many times have we heard a relative saying, **he/she would never do that** on this message board.

"People ask why Ray did not prosecute, and I have no problem saying, because he clearly felt he didn't have a case for a 'successful' prosecution," Tony Gricar, Ray Gricar’s nephew , told The Patriot-News.

"... One thing I can say is that Ray was beholden to no one, was not a politician."

When it comes to the Sandusky case, friends and former co-workers are all of the opinion that Ray Gricar would never back down from a righteous prosecution.

“No one got a bye with Ray,” Anthony De Boef, who was an assistant district attorney under Gricar for five years told the NY Times. “He didn’t care who you were; he had a job to do.”

“I would say this about Ray: He would be extremely cautious in proceeding because he wanted to make sure that there would be a reasonable likelihood of conviction,” Buehner told the Patriot News. “You don’t want to go after someone high profile unless you have a compelling case.”

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news...ky-Has-Been-Missing-Since-2005-133615093.html

There you go. There is 3 people for you.

 

[SuperSmith]

Respectfully snipped.
Please provide a link to that statement. We have had statements from LE to the amount and that amount is low based on his earnings. We do know that there was no money missing from his office accounts.

Pennsylvania authorities asked the FBI to analyze Gricar's bank accounts, credit card records and cell phone records, but found no clues as to where he may have been.[8]

Ray Gricar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It was good enough for the FBI so I tend to believe them.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

"People ask why Ray did not prosecute, and I have no problem saying, because he clearly felt he didn't have a case for a 'successful' prosecution," Tony Gricar, Ray Gricar’s nephew , told The Patriot-News.

"... One thing I can say is that Ray was beholden to no one, was not a politician."

When it comes to the Sandusky case, friends and former co-workers are all of the opinion that Ray Gricar would never back down from a righteous prosecution.

“No one got a bye with Ray,” Anthony De Boef, who was an assistant district attorney under Gricar for five years told the NY Times. “He didn’t care who you were; he had a job to do.”

“I would say this about Ray: He would be extremely cautious in proceeding because he wanted to make sure that there would be a reasonable likelihood of conviction,” Buehner told the Patriot News. “You don’t want to go after someone high profile unless you have a compelling case.”

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news...ky-Has-Been-Missing-Since-2005-133615093.html

There you go. There is 3 people for you.

Those are all three very good examples of the "He'd never do that" statement, though not in the context I'm using it.

There clearly was enough evidence to prosecute, as the judge ruled so, with less evidence than RFG had.

At this point, we have to take those, "he'd never do that" with a few tons of salt, and we probably should in most other cases.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Pennsylvania authorities asked the FBI to analyze Gricar's bank accounts, credit card records and cell phone records, but found no clues as to where he may have been.[8]

Ray Gricar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It was good enough for the FBI so I tend to believe them.

Note what they looked for "where he may have been." They looked for credit card activities, not if money had been moved someplace else.

 

[MissJ]

Well, we have the unaccounted for funds. So there is the possibility that that there is a "huge bank account" out there. If that money was in an offshore account, it might have difficult or impossible to bring it back in, without setting off red flags.

I have found out that RFG complained to friends about paying capital gains taxes. That may be associated with his divorce, but it would indicate that there some investments that he made a net profit on at some point in the years before he disappeared. That would not have been associated with his house.

There is also the possibility that he did have a fear that some old defendant might come looking for him. It may not have been a reasonable one, but that doesn't mean RFG didn't have those thoughts.

Your whole point is that there could be a huge bank account. But we don't know that. How huge? a couple of million? I doubt it. I had/ have a salary comparable to RG. Did I have a huge hidden bank account? Uh, no. JMO

 

[MissJ]

Snipped



I have heard of a number of people declining treatment after an accident.

A major accident where life is on the line? If they are unconscious they can't decline treatment.

 

[MissJ]

And RFG has been missing for 8 years and just over 8 months.

Further, IIRC, the investigation into the McStays was not immediate. There was a delay between last contact and when they were reported missing. An initial safety check by LE yielded nothing.

In RFG's case, it was about 12 hours after last contact when the police began to do something and less than 36 hours before they started gathering evidence. Had that time frame been the case with the McStays case, it might have been a much different outcome.

LE response t the report that RFG was missing was exceptionally quick.

IMO it is about how thorough was the investigation not how quick. We don't know about the McStay case/

 

[J. J. in Phila]

IMO it is about how thorough was the investigation not how quick. We don't know about the McStay case/

The initial search was massive, and rapid. Even the initial press coverage (after the first 48 hours) was stronger. Letting 8-9 days go past from when the McStay's disappeared hurt the investigation. This was less than 36 hours.

As to the money, we know what RFG's base salary was and that he made a profit on investments. We also know that most of that base salary was not there.

That could be enough. Also, in terms of medical emergencies, RFG could be in another country, or even have gotten insurance under a false name.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

As to the rhetorical question of if walkaway makes sense, we need only look at the case of Brenda Heist. While she was found, she had no criminal problems when she walked, her main financial problem was that she couldn't continue to live in the same school district, which is not exactly a tragedy of major proportions. I think this thread is insightful:

Found Alive PA - Brenda Heist, 42, Lititz, 8 Feb 2002 - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community


We also have this case, Michelle McMullen: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2011/06/michelle_mcmullen_walked_away.html

McMullen was facing criminal charges, but they were so minor that she got probation and restitution: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2011/07/ex-church_secretary_who_went_o.html

Now, in neither case, would I regard those reasons as good reasons to leave young children behind, yet both did. Both were reasonably responsible and in the case of both, they had family members insisting that they would never do it. I think that families were quite sincere in their beliefs (McMullen's mother was a pastor), but both were totally wrong.

In the case of RFG, we have his closest friend, and the former DA, who was a more distant friend, but was privy to the case information stating that he probably walked away: http://articles.philly.com/2011-07-31/news/29835864_1_investigators-retirement-plans-ray-gricar

While Sloane may be victim of wishful thinking, MTM has no need to engage in it. I was very much surprised that he talked for the story.

 

[SuperSmith]

I don't think using a drug addicts opinion of what happened to RG is a good example at all. I also don't believe RG went off to be some hobo.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I don't think using a drug addicts opinion of what happened to RG is a good example at all. I also don't believe RG went off to be some hobo.

There is no suggestion that RFG is a hobo, or did not have sufficient assets to sustain himself indefinitely. That is one of the important points that has come up recently. There are assets that are unaccounted for, so the possibility remains and gets stronger.

I do believe Sloane, as he was RFG's closest friend of more than a decade prior to the disappearance.

Obviously, however, there were problems with some of the people (plural) RFG chose to be on staff. Not wanting to be around to answer questions about those could easily be part of the motivation for a voluntary departure. It is part of the broader category of "not wanting to be the ex-DA."