PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[SuperSmith]

"Do police think Gricar parked his car in Lewisburg?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: The Mini Cooper that Ray Gricar was thought to have been driving when he disappeared was found in a parking lot adjacent to the Street of Shops antique mall in Lewisburg on April 16 by a passing trooper. How confident are investigators that it was Gricar who parked the car in the lot?

A: Although police dogs were brought to the parking lot where the car was found, they could not establish a track for Gricar beyond the immediate vicinity of the car. No surveillance cameras are aimed at the parking lot, and no one saw Gricar actually park the car there, according to Bellefonte Police Chief Duane Dixon.

"We're assuming that he did," Dixon said.

http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centr...r/12203757.htm

 

[SuperSmith]

The show is a wealth of information, and not, it wasn’t perfect, and it didn’t solve the case, but we now have more. There were many things, but I want to start with the most important. Mr. Gricar Googled a route to Lewisburg on his office computer, despite having been there multiple times. That is important in one respect. It is solid evidence that Mr. Gricar was planning to go to Lewisburg at some point before he was last in the office. His trip was not random.

Now, why would Mr. Gricar need to do that? I do it occasionally, for two reasons. Rarely, I use it to check mileage for a business trip (usually when I’m sending my taxes to my accountant). The problem is, Mr. Gricar had already filed his taxes and there was very little business related for him in Lewisburg. The second reason I do it, and why I’d expect Mr. Gricar to do it, is get a good estimate of the time of the trip. That points to something scheduled in Lewisburg, specifically.
Read more here: http://www.centredaily.com/2011/03/01/2550766/discovery-is-the-right-name.html#storylink=cpy

This excerpt was taken from your blog in 2011 upon you watching the Disappeared episode and learning of the "directions to Lewisburg". Nowhere did I see it stated that LE found the map early on.

 

[ScarlettScarpetta]

The show is a wealth of information, and not, it wasn’t perfect, and it didn’t solve the case, but we now have more. There were many things, but I want to start with the most important. Mr. Gricar Googled a route to Lewisburg on his office computer, despite having been there multiple times. That is important in one respect. It is solid evidence that Mr. Gricar was planning to go to Lewisburg at some point before he was last in the office. His trip was not random.

Now, why would Mr. Gricar need to do that? I do it occasionally, for two reasons. Rarely, I use it to check mileage for a business trip (usually when I’m sending my taxes to my accountant). The problem is, Mr. Gricar had already filed his taxes and there was very little business related for him in Lewisburg. The second reason I do it, and why I’d expect Mr. Gricar to do it, is get a good estimate of the time of the trip. That points to something scheduled in Lewisburg, specifically.
Read more here: http://www.centredaily.com/2011/03/01/2550766/discovery-is-the-right-name.html#storylink=cpy

This excerpt was taken from your blog in 2011 upon you watching the Disappeared episode and learning of the "directions to Lewisburg". Nowhere did I see it stated that LE found the map early on.

Do they know for sure it was gricar that googled the map? What if someone else did? To follow him, Or see where he would be?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped:

It absolutely IS YOUR theory that the map was generated "recently" and you have argued it, written blogs about it, and posted several posts about it. I have not seen anyone else reporting this or supporting it.

Disappeared episode, "A Family's Curse." It said that LE checked the office computer "within the first 48 hours." That was probably on the afternoon of 4/17, because then they checked the computers in the house.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped:

"Do police think Gricar parked his car in Lewisburg?

"Friday night, people remember the car sitting in the parking lot. It's a very distinct car. Two people in the antique mall are positive they seen him in there. One man is positive he saw Gricar talking to a female on several occasions., I asked him "Were they together?" he said "Well, in my mind they were together, but they weren't holding hands, they weren't lovey-dovey or anything."

"We have three or four good witnesses from down there who are definitely I.D.-ing him in the park. They saw him sitting in his car, they watched him driving his Mini Cooper back and forth on Friday."

"We can definitely put him there on Saturday too. There's a museum right here, across from the park. I think it's called Cottingwood House. The employees watched Ray bring his car and park it two or three different times across the street. He came and left, came and left, came back. He got out of his car, sat on a bench. He was reading a newspaper or something, he just seems to have fallen off the earth.
What does Zaccagni make of all of this ? "Depends on what theory
you want to go after," he says, pulling himself up to the table. "You
have three prominent theories here."

http://z10.invisionfree.com/usedtobedoe/index.php?showtopic=2226&st=0

Zaccagni also said it on Disappeared.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Do they know for sure it was gricar that googled the map? What if someone else did? To follow him, Or see where he would be?

The computer was in his private office, in the County Courthouse, and was password protected.

They may have been able to match up the time.

The only person who knew that RFG would be in Lewisburg that day was RFG and whomever he told.

Following RFG inconspicuously would have been difficult, to the point of being impossible.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Just to add a point on the map. If it was a message to show someone where the Mini, it didn't work. They found the Mini first.

 

[Trackergd]

"Do police think Gricar parked his car in Lewisburg?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: The Mini Cooper that Ray Gricar was thought to have been driving when he disappeared was found in a parking lot adjacent to the Street of Shops antique mall in Lewisburg on April 16 by a passing trooper. How confident are investigators that it was Gricar who parked the car in the lot?

A: Although police dogs were brought to the parking lot where the car was found, they could not establish a track for Gricar beyond the immediate vicinity of the car. No surveillance cameras are aimed at the parking lot, and no one saw Gricar actually park the car there, according to Bellefonte Police Chief Duane Dixon.

"We're assuming that he did," Dixon said.

http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centr...r/12203757.htm

This assumes the correct type of search dog was used to establish the scent around the car. If it was a "police dog" or an air scent dog, that information was then and is now, useless. If it was a ground scent dog (bloodhound) then you might have a chance of establishing the car was parked by "others". On this particular point, I am an expert. To the point that I need to "catch up", being a bit behind and re-asking questions and questioning personal opinions is not a bad thing. Fresh eyes and whatnot....

 

[J. J. in Phila]

This assumes the correct type of search dog was used to establish the scent around the car. If it was a "police dog" or an air scent dog, that information was then and is now, useless. If it was a ground scent dog (bloodhound) then you might have a chance of establishing the car was parked by "others". On this particular point, I am an expert. To the point that I need to "catch up", being a bit behind and re-asking questions and questioning personal opinions is not a bad thing. Fresh eyes and whatnot....

The report was that it was a bloodhound and was used on 4/17/05: http://www.post-gazette.com/frontpage/2005/04/19/Mystery-surrounds-missing-Centre-County-DA.print

This was different than the cadaver dog that was brought in later in the week.

Since this did come up earlier in the thread, it was reported earlier in the press and repeated on Disappeared that there not enough ridges to identify the prints inside the Mini, but that RFG's prints were found on the outside driver's side window. That should show that the car was not washed after RFG was in it.

 

[SuperSmith]

This assumes the correct type of search dog was used to establish the scent around the car. If it was a "police dog" or an air scent dog, that information was then and is now, useless. If it was a ground scent dog (bloodhound) then you might have a chance of establishing the car was parked by "others". On this particular point, I am an expert. To the point that I need to "catch up", being a bit behind and re-asking questions and questioning personal opinions is not a bad thing. Fresh eyes and whatnot....

Agreed......and agree with JJ that a bloodhound was brought in. RGs scent was only detected around the Mini. Not at or in the SOS, park, or by the river.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Agreed......and agree with JJ that a bloodhound was brought in. RGs scent was only detected around the Mini. Not at or in the SOS, park, or by the river.

It actually wasn't detected around the Mini, as the Mini was at the PSP barracks in Milton at the time.

RFG's scent was detected in the parking area across from the SOS, but not beyond that.

 

[MissJ]

FWIW, I believe he met with foul play. JMO

 

[Trackergd]

It actually wasn't detected around the Mini, as the Mini was at the PSP barracks in Milton at the time.

RFG's scent was detected in the parking area across from the SOS, but not beyond that.

RFG's scent was detected by bloodhounds in the parking area, but not in the SOS or the park? Were the bloodhounds taken anywhere near the highway bridge or the abandoned rail bridge?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

RFG's scent was detected by bloodhounds in the parking area, but not in the SOS or the park? Were the bloodhounds taken anywhere near the highway bridge or the abandoned rail bridge?

As far as I know, yes; the press reports were not clear, but I have heard that this was the case. The bloodhound "circled" at the spot where the scent was lost, and the handler thought that it could indicate that RFG got into another car. The dog wasn't talking, obviously.

The dog basically lost the scent in or at the edge of the parking lot. Later press reports said that it was 20 yards away from where the car was parked.

 

[Trackergd]

As far as I know, yes; the press reports were not clear, but I have heard that this was the case. The bloodhound "circled" at the spot where the scent was lost, and the handler thought that it could indicate that RFG got into another car. The dog wasn't talking, obviously.

The dog basically lost the scent in or at the edge of the parking lot. Later press reports said that it was 20 yards away from where the car was parked.

Well, that does cause me to step back a bit and rethink this. I would have thought that if RG had thrown the laptop or drive from the park, his scent would have been detected by the bloodhound. Same for the bridge, but there it would have been diluted by auto exhaust which tends to give ground scent dogs a bit of a problem.

It does tend to follow the theory that he got into another vehicle and left the area and goes with your theory that the laptop was tossed from the bridge. What we cannot know if RG did the tossing or if another party was involved in that.

Getting into another vehicle would seem to slam the door on the suicide theory leaving only the foul play or walk away.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Well, that does cause me to step back a bit and rethink this. I would have thought that if RG had thrown the laptop or drive from the park, his scent would have been detected by the bloodhound. Same for the bridge, but there it would have been diluted by auto exhaust which tends to give ground scent dogs a bit of a problem.

It does tend to follow the theory that he got into another vehicle and left the area and goes with your theory that the laptop was tossed from the bridge. What we cannot know if RG did the tossing or if another party was involved in that.

Getting into another vehicle would seem to slam the door on the suicide theory leaving only the foul play or walk away.

There are a few questions.

1. Can there be other likely explanations for the dog circling than getting into a car? For example, could the scent have been masked or destroyed by other factors.

2. Would the scent have been stronger had RFG made several trips between another vehicle and the Mini, e.g. taking something from the Mini to a second vehicle?

3. Could the scent the dog detected had been a more recent one, i.e., one left late in the evening of 4/15 or during the day of 4/16?

I would agree that if RFG got into another car, or frankly was there on 4/16/05, suicide would be at or below 1% likely. I don't think there is enough publicly available evidence to reach the conclusion that either premise is true.

[These questions are more directed to Trackergd, but not exclusively so.]

 

[Trackergd]

There are a few questions.

1. Can there be other likely explanations for the dog circling than getting into a car? For example, could the scent have been masked or destroyed by other factors.

2. Would the scent have been stronger had RFG made several trips between another vehicle and the Mini, e.g. taking something from the Mini to a second vehicle?

3. Could the scent the dog detected had been a more recent one, i.e., one left late in the evening of 4/15 or during the day of 4/16?

I would agree that if RFG got into another car, or frankly was there on 4/16/05, suicide would be at or below 1% likely. I don't think there is enough publicly available evidence to reach the conclusion that either premise is true.

[These questions are more directed to Trackergd, but not exclusively so.]

1. Yes, but unlikely if the scent in a parking area was enough for the dog to detect. If there was a scent in the park and the SOS, the dog should have picked up something, even if it was only a few short hits.

2. Somewhat. Just more skin cells for the dogs nose to suck up and compare against the imprinted sample. The dog would have pulled a lot more and been more insistent on following the trail. When it lost the scent, it would have carried on and circled trying to pick up the trail leading off from it's last hit.

3. The dog only knows what it smells. If the dog hesitated a lot, it might signal a weaker or older scent. In this situation, a foot print could have been dated with more accuracy than a scent. Having both would have been a 99% confirmation on time and subject.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

1. Yes, but unlikely if the scent in a parking area was enough for the dog to detect. If there was a scent in the park and the SOS, the dog should have picked up something, even if it was only a few short hits.

2. Somewhat. Just more skin cells for the dogs nose to suck up and compare against the imprinted sample. The dog would have pulled a lot more and been more insistent on following the trail. When it lost the scent, it would have carried on and circled trying to pick up the trail leading off from it's last hit.

3. The dog only knows what it smells. If the dog hesitated a lot, it might signal a weaker or older scent. In this situation, a foot print could have been dated with more accuracy than a scent. Having both would have been a 99% confirmation on time and subject.

No footprints. It was a dirt and gravel surface. The was a parking strip, grass, between the sidewalk and the street.

The dog was brought in around Noon on 4/17/05, maybe a bit before.

Weather was clear, no rain. Temperature reached 75 in the mid afternoon.

I am now wondering if the scent wasn't from the afternoon of 4/16.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I'm posting this only because there have been some comments on the standard needed to declare someone dead and because the FBI has maintained a missing poster on RFG:

http://foxnewsinsider.com/2014/01/0...ee-price-arrested-during-routine-traffic-stop

http://www.businessinsider.com/aubrey-lee-price-captured-in-georgia-2014-1

Aubrey Price was accused of massive theft prior to faking his own suicide; there has been no evidence that RFG stole anything, and an audit of the DA's Office indicated no funds were missing. Further Price left a false suicide note and there was nothing of the sort in RFG's case.

 

[Trackergd]

No footprints. It was a dirt and gravel surface. The was a parking strip, grass, between the sidewalk and the street.

The dog was brought in around Noon on 4/17/05, maybe a bit before.

Weather was clear, no rain. Temperature reached 75 in the mid afternoon.

I am now wondering if the scent wasn't from the afternoon of 4/16.

Sorry I have been in and out on this case. I am deeply involved in the Holly Grim case and acting as the SAR consultant and as contact with the PSP.

If the weather was clear, there was no rain, and afternoon temps in the mid 70's, that would be ideal scent conditions for a bloodhound. The scent could have been from either the 15th or the 16th.

Moving a body from one car to another would not have left enough skin cells to get more than a small hit in one spot, rather for the dog to move around a bit, RFG would have to be standing in a spot for a bit, possibly pacing around. The dog handler should have been able to read the reaction of the dog to determine if it was a tentative hit or a strong scent.