PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[J. J. in Phila]

Sorry I have been in and out on this case. I am deeply involved in the Holly Grim case and acting as the SAR consultant and as contact with the PSP.

If the weather was clear, there was no rain, and afternoon temps in the mid 70's, that would be ideal scent conditions for a bloodhound. The scent could have been from either the 15th or the 16th.

Moving a body from one car to another would not have left enough skin cells to get more than a small hit in one spot, rather for the dog to move around a bit, RFG would have to be standing in a spot for a bit, possibly pacing around. The dog handler should have been able to read the reaction of the dog to determine if it was a tentative hit or a strong scent.

He didn't characterize except say that it could indicate getting into a car.

From the physical setup of the lot, it would have been almost impossible to take a body out of the car, for 20 yards, across the parking lot, and not be spotted by witnesses or leave some physical trace.

 

[Trackergd]

He didn't characterize except say that it could indicate getting into a car.

From the physical setup of the lot, it would have been almost impossible to take a body out of the car, for 20 yards, across the parking lot, and not be spotted by witnesses or leave some physical trace.

To me, this would indicate that he got out of the Mini and got into another car. Now what we are faced with is....did he do this of his own accord or at gunpoint?

I doubt RFG would have willingly gone to that location and gotten into another car if he had thought it was a setup for an abduction. It either was part of a plan to go somewhere with someone for reasons unknown or it was a very elaborate hoax to get him into another car and out of the area if it was foul play. This again lowers the probability of suicide.

The dog scent proves to me that he was at that parking spot within a two day window.

 

[Trackergd]

Lets look at what we "think" know from Lewistown

Seen in town talking to a woman, more like a business meeting rather than a relationship.

In parking lot where Mini was found. Scent trail seems to indicate RFG may have gotten into another vehicle.

Computer found in the river. Probably tossed from the bridge

Hard drive found in river near by

Did not tell any of his staff he was going to meet anyone

Did not tell his SO he was going to meet anyone. Phone call could be interpreted as being deceptive.


Did I miss anything?

At what point could this have gone from a quick meet up to foul play?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

To me, this would indicate that he got out of the Mini and got into another car. Now what we are faced with is....did he do this of his own accord or at gunpoint?

I doubt RFG would have willingly gone to that location and gotten into another car if he had thought it was a setup for an abduction. It either was part of a plan to go somewhere with someone for reasons unknown or it was a very elaborate hoax to get him into another car and out of the area if it was foul play. This again lowers the probability of suicide.

The dog scent proves to me that he was at that parking spot within a two day window.

For me, it is the scent, the fingerprint on the window (indicating that the car was not washed), the Mini being there, and several witness putting him in the parking lot in the Mini.

Because of the physical setup of the parking lot, I doubt that RFG could have been kidnapped by force. Tricked into getting into another car or getting into another car willingly, are both possibilities. Neither would preclude foul play.

I am not convinced, however, that RFG did get into another car.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Lets look at what we "think" know from Lewistown

Seen in town talking to a woman, more like a business meeting rather than a relationship.

In parking lot where Mini was found. Scent trail seems to indicate RFG may have gotten into another vehicle.

Computer found in the river. Probably tossed from the bridge

Hard drive found in river near by

Did not tell any of his staff he was going to meet anyone

Did not tell his SO he was going to meet anyone. Phone call could be interpreted as being deceptive.


Did I miss anything?

At what point could this have gone from a quick meet up to foul play?

Hard drive found in river, near where RFG/Mini were seen. He generated a map to Lewisburg; he knew how to get there. He could have been checking the time/distance for himself or someone else. He indicated that he was taking the day off.

Lewisburg was out of the media market where RFG would be likely recognized.

Possibility, he was meeting a lover, one that wasn't into public displays of affection.

A meeting about a case that he didn't want to be "on the record." (That would be quite disturbing.)

Preparing to walk away; meeting someone to help him leave.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

One other detail.

RFG was acting differently from 1-5 weeks prior to his disappearance.

 

[SeekingJana]

Hi, all-
Have been AFK for a few days. This is a bit late, but I hope 2014 is the year in which we gain answers in Mr. Gricar's case.

9 years is a long time.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Staying overnight still bothers me.

I could understand these things:

1. RFG was feeling tired (and he had been recently) and decides not to drive home.

2. RFG feels sick, and decides not to drive home.

3. RFG decided he had a bit too much to drink, didn't want to risk driving home.

In all cases, he left the cell phone in his car, so that could account for him not phoning PEF. Perhaps, in all cases, he goes some place, intending to go home later, and falls asleep. He didn't go (alone) to a motel.

Could he have spent the night at a friend's house? Who? I don't know of any friend in Lewisburg.

 

[SuperSmith]

Staying overnight still bothers me.

I could understand these things:

1. RFG was feeling tired (and he had been recently) and decides not to drive home.

2. RFG feels sick, and decides not to drive home.

3. RFG decided he had a bit too much to drink, didn't want to risk driving home.

In all cases, he left the cell phone in his car, so that could account for him not phoning PEF. Perhaps, in all cases, he goes some place, intending to go home later, and falls asleep. He didn't go (alone) to a motel.

Could he have spent the night at a friend's house? Who? I don't know of any friend in Lewisburg.

Perhaps an alternative reason for why the overnighter bothers you is because it didn't happen. I have yet to read about concrete evidence that he was in Lewisburg Saturday. A few people claiming (who didn't know him) that they saw him doesn't exactly stack up to concrete evidence.

As a matter of fact I have yet to read about concrete evidence that he was in Lewisburg on Friday or Saturday.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Perhaps an alternative reason for why the overnighter bothers you is because it didn't happen. I have yet to read about concrete evidence that he was in Lewisburg Saturday. A few people claiming (who didn't know him) that they saw him doesn't exactly stack up to concrete evidence.

As a matter of fact I have yet to read about concrete evidence that he was in Lewisburg on Friday or Saturday.

Well, there are at three witnesses that put him in Lewisburg on Saturday 4/16/05. That is more evidence that RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/16/05 than that he was a foul play victim. LE seems to think he was there.

I think that there ample evidence that RFG could have been there on 4/16/05.

I could understand RFG spending the night for a variety of reasons and even possibly not calling PEF. Most of those involve spending the night at a motel, of which there should be a record. There is no record of that.

 

[justthinkin]

If RFG called his girlfriend his cell phone would have pinged a certain tower. Has that info ever been made public? I may not understand how pinging works exactly, but I've seen references to it here on other cases so thought it worth mentioning. Sorry if this has been covered already.

Here are my thoughts for whatever they're worth. According to the info on the case, RFG didn't like cigarette ashes in his car, but I'm wondering, was there ever a time in his life when he himself smoked?

Regarding suicide in families: http://www.healthyplace.com/depression/articles/suicide-risk-runs-in-families/

Not saying RFG committed suicide, but it seems likely some kind of planning took place towards some end, either suicide or disappearing. Taking his computer, but not its case or charger raises questions in my mind. Laptops are fragile, one drop, and poof, there goes the laptop. If his excursion started out as an innocent short trip, it just seems likely the laptop would have been taken in its case.

What is known about the incidence of depression or other mental issues with RFG and other family members? I do think suicide is a distinct possibility in that RFG's daughter has never been contacted by him and with his brother having committed suicide in 1996.

I wonder when was the last time RFG and his daughter were in contact?
Someone entertaining thoughts of suicide is quite likely to distance him or herself emotionally from family and close friends leading up to actual suicide.

Did RFG try to make his suicide (a supposition) look like foul play? He most definitely would have been aware of the devastating effects of suicide on those left behind after his own brother's suicide. From experience, I know the self-questioning and self-blaming that goes on in a family when a family member commits suicide, but if loved ones thought foul play instead, it might at least spare them the devastating anguish a suicide can bring. I somehow doubt RFG's loved ones really think his death was caused by foul play. There's not enough solid evidence to convince, an a prior suicide in his immediate family suggests otherwise, at least to me.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipping a bit.

If RFG called his girlfriend his cell phone would have pinged a certain tower. Has that info ever been made public? I may not understand how pinging works exactly, but I've seen references to it here on other cases so thought it worth mentioning. Sorry if this has been covered already.

They have never which towers, but they did use "towers" plural. The only spot where there are towers is close to Centre Hall, which is consistent with the roads searched. There are two ways to get from Centre Hall to Lewisburg, and LE searched both on 4/16.

He spoke an occasional cigar, but this was cigarette ash.

Regarding suicide in families: http://www.healthyplace.com/depression/articles/suicide-risk-runs-in-families/

Not saying RFG committed suicide, but it seems likely some kind of planning took place towards some end, either suicide or disappearing. Taking his computer, but not its case or charger raises questions in my mind. Laptops are fragile, one drop, and poof, there goes the laptop. If his excursion started out as an innocent short trip, it just seems likely the laptop would have been taken in its case.

What is known about the incidence of depression or other mental issues with RFG and other family members? I do think suicide is a distinct possibility in that RFG's daughter has never been contacted by him and with his brother having committed suicide in 1996.

His bother committed suicide in 1996; his brother was bi-polar. His daughter spoke to him briefly on 4/14.

Did RFG try to make his suicide (a supposition) look like foul play? He most definitely would have been aware of the devastating effects of suicide on those left behind after his own brother's suicide.

He didn't make it look like foul play. There is no evidence or eyewitness account that supports the premise of foul play. There is not enough evidence to rule it out, though there is for some of the particular scenarios, but nothing specifically supports foul play.

 

[SuperSmith]

Well, there are at three witnesses that put him in Lewisburg on Saturday 4/16/05. That is more evidence that RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/16/05 than that he was a foul play victim. LE seems to think he was there.

I think that there ample evidence that RFG could have been there on 4/16/05.

I could understand RFG spending the night for a variety of reasons and even possibly not calling PEF. Most of those involve spending the night at a motel, of which there should be a record. There is no record of that.

"Eye-witness" accounts are only evidence if their accounts are given under oath.

https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/178240.pdf

 

[J. J. in Phila]

"Eye-witness" accounts are only evidence if their accounts are given under oath.

https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/178240.pdf

They are evidence for our purposes. If there is no crime, other than the destruction of the laptop, there is no need for this to be in court.

With that, there is a prime suspect, the person who indicated he wanted to get rid of the data on the laptop, did the computer searches, Googled a map to Lewisburg, and was seen in Lewisburg near where the drive was found. That is a summary offense if less than $500 in actual loss. http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/LI/consCheck.cfm?txtType=HTM&ttl=18&div=0&chpt=33

Even then, because RFG had legal custody of the laptop, it might not applicable and he may have to pay replacement cost, for a use, discontinued model of a laptop.

 

[Trackergd]

Perhaps an alternative reason for why the overnighter bothers you is because it didn't happen. I have yet to read about concrete evidence that he was in Lewisburg Saturday. A few people claiming (who didn't know him) that they saw him doesn't exactly stack up to concrete evidence.

As a matter of fact I have yet to read about concrete evidence that he was in Lewisburg on Friday or Saturday.

How do you explain the scent? Bloodhounds are the most reliable and accurate of the ground scent search dogs.

 

[SuperSmith]

How do you explain the scent? Bloodhounds are the most reliable and accurate of the ground scent search dogs.

Being that Gricar almost exclusively drove the Mini isn't it fair to say that his scent would've been in it? Gricar did not have to be there for his scent to be. FBI and CIA experiments have proven this.

Someone in your position should be well aware of this.

Dixon furthermore stated several times that the bloodhound picked up NO trail.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped

Being that Gricar almost exclusively drove the Mini isn't it fair to say that his scent would've been in it? Gricar did not have to be there for his scent to be. FBI and CIA experiments have proven this.

First, the Mini was miles away when the bloodhound was brought in. It was taken to the Milton PSP barracks.

Dixon furthermore stated several times that the bloodhound picked up NO trail.

Second, the quote from Dixon, where he said that the dog circled in the parking lot has been cited.

"The handler said the way the dog acted, it could have indicated [Gricar] got into another car," Dixon said. But, he continued, "We have no evidence he was planning to meet anyone in Lewisburg."

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/frontpa...-DA/stories/2005042203100000000#ixzz2qJDzcuIy


That has been reported numerous times.

It was also reported on Dateline in 2006: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/12756052/ns/dateline_nbc/t/missing-district-attorney/#.UtRA8rSQMts

It was also reported on the episode of Disappeared.

The scent did not lead them beyond the parking lot, but obviously, RFG was not in the parking lot on 4/17/05.

 

[SuperSmith]

Snipped



First, the Mini was miles away when the bloodhound was brought in. It was taken to the Milton PSP barracks.



Second, the quote from Dixon, where he said that the dog circled in the parking lot has been cited.

"The handler said the way the dog acted, it could have indicated [Gricar] got into another car," Dixon said. But, he continued, "We have no evidence he was planning to meet anyone in Lewisburg."

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/frontpa...-DA/stories/2005042203100000000#ixzz2qJDzcuIy



That has been reported numerous times.

It was also reported on Dateline in 2006: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/12756052/ns/dateline_nbc/t/missing-district-attorney/#.UtRA8rSQMts

It was also reported on the episode of Disappeared.

The scent did not lead them beyond the parking lot, but obviously, RFG was not in the parking lot on 4/17/05.

Not sure what your point was here but mine is that Gricars scent could have emanated from the car by opening it up much like the tobacco smell. Could be what the dog hit on. Also whomever drove the car could have carried his scent 20 yards because of driving a car dominantly driven by him.

Ill allow you to do your own scientific research to verify.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Not sure what your point was here but mine is that Gricars scent could have emanated from the car by opening it up much like the tobacco smell. Could be what the dog hit on. Also whomever drove the car could have carried his scent 20 yards because of driving a car dominantly driven by him.

Ill allow you to do your own scientific research to verify.

Well, first, I'm not sure if the car was opened in the lot and not at the barracks.

I will let Trackergd answer about the "cross contamination" aspect, but I have never heard of it occurring naturally. Quite clearly, the Mini had not been in the lot for 12+ hours when the bloodhound was brought in.

There is evidence that RFG was driving the Mini in Lewisburg, several witnesses, and no evidence of anyone else driving it. The bloodhound was obviously not influenced by the witnesses or vice versa.

 

[SuperSmith]

Well, first, I'm not sure if the car was opened in the lot and not at the barracks.

I will let Trackergd answer about the "cross contamination" aspect, but I have never heard of it occurring naturally. Quite clearly, the Mini had not been in the lot for 12+ hours when the bloodhound was brought in.

There is evidence that RFG was driving the Mini in Lewisburg, several witnesses, and no evidence of anyone else driving it. The bloodhound was obviously not influenced by the witnesses or vice versa.

The car had to have been opened in the lot most likely. It's the only way they could've transported it back to the barracks without setting off the alarm or damaging the car.