PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #12

[J. J. in Phila]

And J.J., you are absolutely, most definitely correct; they should have checked car rentals in anyone's name in a large area surroundings the area for the entire week.

LR has never never said it or at the whereabouts of the "inner circle."

Any of these things would have helped rule out:
Someone had found a way into the home,
Managed to get him to stop and grab him and the car
Would have had a starting point to tail him.

Eliminate some of these possibilities and you would have had a clearer picture.

No evidence of any problem at the house, and they had a dog, which was unharmed.

At least 8 people have RFG in Lewisburg that day, 4/15; at least three have him their the next day. The bloodhound detected his scent in the parking lot. The odd that RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/15 or 4/16 are more than 3.5 million to one against.

It would have been nearly impossible for RFG to have been followed without realizing it. There were multiple way out of Bellefonte and three separate direct ways to Lewisburg.

 

[BigCat]

I recently completed watching every episode of Disappeared. My first thought is how much better that show is than any other show on Discover ID. And I mean much better. I read on the production company website that the show is set to return, thankfully, on the 27th of this month.

In terms of RFG, I was curious how his disappearance was different than the other 84 cases profiled. I don't know that his case was particularly unusual; what really separates his case from the others is the man himself. His professional status, education, and knowledge of law enforcement was superior to anyone else profiled.

The show was titled "A Family's Curse," which suggests that RFG most likely committed suicide (at least the show's producers feel that way). I don't know. I tend to think RFG may have provided the textbook example of how to successfully disappear. He scouted the location to avoid cameras. He left all electronic trace of his existence in his last known location. He even set up a suicide scenario that he knew would distract law enforcement in the crucial early stages of the search.

I haven't shut the door on the possibility of foul play. Certainly, the Sandusky scandal is big enough that someone may have a motive to murder the DA. As of yet, however, I don't see the motive. And then there's the problem of who could pull off the perfect murder of a unlikely victim; RFG was no naive coed at a rock concert or druggie drop out like some of the other people profiled on Disappeared. I assume he's smarter than me, most of law enforcement and certainly smarter than most criminals. It just seems most likely that we can't find him because he doesn't want to be found.

JMO

 

[snowleopard]

BigCat, I agree wholeheartedly about Disappeared and was very saddened when it sounded like they were off the air for good....Thanks for the great news. I think most of the other shows on that network are deliberately tawdry, aimed at a young crowd. BTW, excellent handle.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

First, I agree regarding Disappeared.

The only thing disappointing was an editing after the Sandusky Scandal, that made it look like Tony Gricar was responding to that, when he had made the comment 12-18 months before.

Snipped:

I haven't shut the door on the possibility of foul play. Certainly, the Sandusky scandal is big enough that someone may have a motive to murder the DA. As of yet, however, I don't see the motive. And then there's the problem of who could pull off the perfect murder of a unlikely victim; RFG was no naive coed at a rock concert or druggie drop out like some of the other people profiled on Disappeared. I assume he's smarter than me, most of law enforcement and certainly smarter than most criminals. It just seems most likely that we can't find him because he doesn't want to be found.

JMO

BBM

I think that part is the key. RFG was certainly well educated and he was experienced in dealing with criminals. In 2005, he had been a prosecutor for at least 30 years including the fairly large city of Cleveland, OH. The family is bright; one of the nephews is in Mensa. RFG generally did not make mistakes.

If he felt he was going into a dangerous situation, and it was legitimately case related, why not leave some indication of what it was, who would be there.

I would still not say homicide was the least likely explanation, but it is the most likely explanation either.

 

[shadow of my mind]

I recently completed watching every episode of Disappeared. My first thought is how much better that show is than any other show on Discover ID. And I mean much better. I read on the production company website that the show is set to return, thankfully, on the 27th of this month.

In terms of RFG, I was curious how his disappearance was different than the other 84 cases profiled. I don't know that his case was particularly unusual; what really separates his case from the others is the man himself. His professional status, education, and knowledge of law enforcement was superior to anyone else profiled.

The show was titled "A Family's Curse," which suggests that RFG most likely committed suicide (at least the show's producers feel that way). I don't know. I tend to think RFG may have provided the textbook example of how to successfully disappear. He scouted the location to avoid cameras. He left all electronic trace of his existence in his last known location. He even set up a suicide scenario that he knew would distract law enforcement in the crucial early stages of the search.

I haven't shut the door on the possibility of foul play. Certainly, the Sandusky scandal is big enough that someone may have a motive to murder the DA. As of yet, however, I don't see the motive. And then there's the problem of who could pull off the perfect murder of a unlikely victim; RFG was no naive coed at a rock concert or druggie drop out like some of the other people profiled on Disappeared. I assume he's smarter than me, most of law enforcement and certainly smarter than most criminals. It just seems most likely that we can't find him because he doesn't want to be found.

JMO

BBM

And just possibly the simple fact that he was smart, and knew he was smart is what could have gotten him killed.

The success of personal safety depends more on what you don't do than what you actually do, because bad guys typically attack deliberately and intelligently, not randomly.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Well, this is something we know. Before his disappearance, RFG was acting strangely. We have this from PEF (tired and napping), JKA (distraught), Shotts, Joseph, and now from the people at the 4/14/05 prison board meeting (distracted and/or unfocused).

Could that be caused by fear of his physical safety?

BBM

And just possibly the simple fact that he was smart, and knew he was smart is what could have gotten him killed.

The success of personal safety depends more on what you don't do than what you actually do, because bad guys typically attack deliberately and intelligently, not randomly.

I will readily and happily concede that RFG was very bright and experienced in dealing with criminals.

If his uncharacteristic actions were prompted by a physical threat to his safety, would he drive into a remote area, without cell coverage, unarmed, on 4/14? He did, and came back. My answer is that even a man of average intelligence and not experienced in dealing with criminals would do that. It would be foolish.

He did the same thing on 4/15, except he also chose a route that was not regularly patrolled by LE (and that might have been true of his route on 4/14 as well). There were alternative routes that did not possess those characteristics, i.e. they were patrolled and had cell coverage.

Conclusion: Whatever was causing RFG's unusual characteristics was not a perceived threat to his physical safety.

 

[shadow of my mind]

Well, this is something we know. Before his disappearance, RFG was acting strangely. We have this from PEF (tired and napping), JKA (distraught), Shotts, Joseph, and now from the people at the 4/14/05 prison board meeting (distracted and/or unfocused).

Could that be caused by fear of his physical safety?




I will readily and happily concede that RFG was very bright and experienced in dealing with criminals.

If his uncharacteristic actions were prompted by a physical threat to his safety, would he drive into a remote area, without cell coverage, unarmed, on 4/14? He did, and came back. My answer is that even a man of average intelligence and not experienced in dealing with criminals would do that. It would be foolish.

He did the same thing on 4/15, except he also chose a route that was not regularly patrolled by LE (and that might have been true of his route on 4/14 as well). There were alternative routes that did not possess those characteristics, i.e. they were patrolled and had cell coverage.

Conclusion: Whatever was causing RFG's unusual characteristics was not a perceived threat to his physical safety.

The problem is we don't know what he would have perceived as a serious physical threat.

With 30 some years under his belt as a DA, and probably some mailed letters and maybe even some phone calls to his office, along with any reports coming in from the jail about inmate's mouthing off, he may have become a little callous about the whole threat thing. Nothing had ever happen that we know of. No reports of even somebody taking a swing at him after court.

Lets say he thought maybe someone might be following him, or he has seen the same vehicle sitting in the same place a number of times. Maybe some hang up calls at home. Nothing dramatic, nothing real sure. Just a nagging feeling. Would that be enough to cause the distraction that has been reported?

What would he do? Would he actually report to LE that he thought someone may be following him or would he be to goosy and concerned about what they would think, especially if there was nothing that was real specific to tell and just keep it to himself.

Maybe the reason he took those lesser traveled roads was to see if that "feeling" was correct. Basically to catch a glimpse of someone if he was being followed. We don't know.

We can only make assumptions based on what we each would perceive as a threat and how we would react to it. Then use that information to base our speculations on how he would act.

It becomes a circular question with no true answer. We don't have enough information to form an answer with. :moo:

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped:

The problem is we don't know what he would have perceived as a serious physical threat.

I'm not saying that there was not a physical threat. I am saying that whatever was causing RFG to act oddly was not a physical threat.

With 30 some years under his belt as a DA, and probably some mailed letters and maybe even some phone calls to his office, along with any reports coming in from the jail about inmate's mouthing off, he may have become a little callous about the whole threat thing. Nothing had ever happen that we know of. No reports of even somebody taking a swing at him after court.

I think an inmate's mother slapped him at a parole hearing, or something. A now convicted defendant threatened to kidnap and rape SPM, kill her, cut her up, and flush her down the toilet in his cell, which would be an impossibility.

Lets say he thought maybe someone might be following him, or he has seen the same vehicle sitting in the same place a number of times. Maybe some hang up calls at home. Nothing dramatic, nothing real sure. Just a nagging feeling. Would that be enough to cause the distraction that has been reported?

What would he do? Would he actually report to LE that he thought someone may be following him or would he be to goosy and concerned about what they would think, especially if there was nothing that was real specific to tell and just keep it to himself.

Well, it doesn't involve RFG necessarily telling anyone, just him taking stupid chances, like driving in a remote, underpopulated area, unarmed, where he couldn't call out.

Further, why would RFG care what LE thought? He does not need the FOP endorsement in the next election and no one from LE will be hiring him.

Maybe the reason he took those lesser traveled roads was to see if that "feeling" was correct. Basically to catch a glimpse of someone if he was being followed. We don't know.

Possibly, however, he did this on 4/14/05, not just 4/15.

We can only make assumptions based on what we each would perceive as a threat and how we would react to it. Then use that information to base our speculations on how he would act.

We have to assume three things about RFG to support the conclusion, "Whatever was causing RFG's unusual characteristics was not a perceived threat to his physical safety." Those two things are.

1. RFG would know that taking certain actions would increase the likelihood of a physical threat being carried out. He was both bright enough and experienced enough not to go into an area where he would have a lower chance of getting help from LE if the threat was carried out.

2. He was acting strangely.

There is evidence, substantial evidence, of both.

Only a person who effectively thought he was bulletproof would be worried about a physical threat and walk or drive into a situation which would increase that threat.

Something was bothering him, and it wasn't that he thought someone was gunning for him.

 

[PPKik]

LR has never never said it or at the whereabouts of the "inner circle."



No evidence of any problem at the house, and they had a dog, which was unharmed.

At least 8 people have RFG in Lewisburg that day, 4/15; at least three have him their the next day. The bloodhound detected his scent in the parking lot. The odd that RFG was in Lewisburg on 4/15 or 4/16 are more than 3.5 million to one against.

It would have been nearly impossible for RFG to have been followed without realizing it. There were multiple way out of Bellefonte and three separate direct ways to Lewisburg.

J.J. in Phila - Do you know if out of those 11-odd people who saw RFG on 4/15 and 4/16, if any of knew him personally? How did they know or recognize him? From the media?

In the last sentence of your paragraph, quoted, beginning with: "The odd [sic] that RFG was in Lewisburg... are more than 3.5 million against," do you mean "...was not in Lewisburg...?

This is the first I have read that RFG took a trip the day before, on the 14th. Was he gone all day? Do you know here he went? Was it unusual for him to take two days off in a row?

Also do you, or does anyone, know when was the last time RFG made a cash withdrawal from his bank, if he was known to use cash and did not only use credit cards?

And do you know the last date, place, and time RFG used his credit card? Did he use it it Lewisburg?

TIA. I am sure this has all been discussed for years, but I would not know where to start looking tonight.

 

[Trackergd]

J.J. Did RG speak any foreign languages?

 

[Trackergd]

I wonder if the Embassy of Slovenia had a female staffer that meets the description of the mystery woman?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Snipped a bit.

J.J. in Phila - Do you know if out of those 11-odd people who saw RFG on 4/15 and 4/16, if any of knew him personally? How did they know or recognize him? From the media?

There was one, "McKnight's witness," that recognized from the media, but most were found by LE. Some reported it prior to the story breaking in Lewisburg. At least one, on the way, knew him.

In the last sentence of your paragraph, quoted, beginning with: "The odd [sic] that RFG was in Lewisburg... are more than 3.5 million against," do you mean "...was not in Lewisburg...?

Yes, against him never being in Lewisburg in that time frame.

This is the first I have read that RFG took a trip the day before, on the 14th. Was he gone all day? Do you know here he went? Was it unusual for him to take two days off in a row?

Left sometime after the PBM, c. 8:45-9:00 AM and was seen by someone who knew him at the boat landing on Raystown Lake between 10:30 and 11:00 AM. Was back at the office by mid afternoon.

It was a bit unusual to play hooky two days in a row, but not unknown.

Also do you, or does anyone, know when was the last time RFG made a cash withdrawal from his bank, if he was known to use cash and did not only use credit cards?

Credit cards and in the 2 1/2 years prior he had taken about $16 k in case (that works out to about $125/week, so it is not an unusual amount).

And do you know the last date, place, and time RFG used his credit card? Did he use it it Lewisburg?

I've heard that there was no credit card activity in Lewisburg.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

J.J. Did RG speak any foreign languages?

I've heard Russian; he was originally a Russian history major.

The family was Slovenian, he had visited. I don't know what his working knowledge of the language was.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I wonder if the Embassy of Slovenia had a female staffer that meets the description of the mystery woman?

She would have had to have taken care of him for about six weeks. The sighting in the area of the Macedonian Consulate in Southfield, MI was May 27.

 

[Trackergd]

She would have had to have taken care of him for about six weeks. The sighting in the area of the Macedonian Consulate in Southfield, MI was May 27.

I was thinking the meeting was to set up citizenship and discuss other details and Lewisburg was far enough away that there would not be too many witnesses. RG would then have been handed off to or directed to another staffer or consulate in a different city.

Interesting thought train.

At the time, I think US Air flew out of Reading Regional and connecting to Southfield, MI would not have been much of an issue. The car could have quickly been returned to Lewisburg and parked.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I was thinking the meeting was to set up citizenship and discuss other details and Lewisburg was far enough away that there would not be too many witnesses. RG would then have been handed off to or directed to another staffer or consulate in a different city.

Interesting thought train.

At the time, I think US Air flew out of Reading Regional and connecting to Southfield, MI would not have been much of an issue. The car could have quickly been returned to Lewisburg and parked.

I think there are flights from Elmira to Detroit and there was bus service there from Lewisburg.

There are, however, some problems.

Why didn't anyone see him on the bus? Since the bus (to Elmira at least) doesn't go directly to the airport, why didn't someone see him transfer from the bus. You need ID to board a flight in the US, so why isn't there a record? Why don't airport personnel remember him? These are not huge airports, but would presumably have video cameras.

Further, while I guess RFG could have paid cash for a ticket, a man paying cash, and presumably having no luggage, would draw the attention of TSA.

Obviously, I've been considering the same thing. I may not be on the train, but I am at the station.

Also, keep in mind that I only give the Southfield sighting a 50% chance of actually being RFG. It's a maybe. It may end up being a maybe not.

 

[MissJ]

Anyone getting on a plane without luggage who had paid cash for a ticket would be seriously investigated. That aside, what would he need from the consulate? Any ideas?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Anyone getting on a plane without luggage who had paid cash for a ticket would be seriously investigated. That aside, what would he need from the consulate? Any ideas?

Visa? Driver's license in a foreign country?

 

[MissJ]

Visa? Driver's license in a foreign country?

Possible. How does this work in Slovenia....applying for citizenship?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Possible. How does this work in Slovenia....applying for citizenship?

First, dual citizenship is legal.

Second, anyone with at least one great-grandparent born in Slovenia may apply for Slovenian citizenship, i.e. the person is eligible if only 1/8 Slovenian.

RFG's grandmother was born there, so there are at least 2 great grandparents born there. I think all eight might have been.

He did travel there, so he could have applied there. The was a consulate in Cleveland and, in theory, he could have applied there.

You might want to look at this blog: http://www.centredaily.com/2013/08/18/3743249/the-okicki-option.html RFG definitely knew about the case cited.

I've said, that it is both "possible and plausible," but that "possible and plausible" is not proof.