PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #14

[J. J. in Phila]

Yes, and how many DA's are there specifically along/around the mob infested I-80 corridor between Youngstown and New York?

One, in NYC. He was caught in the crossfire during a shootout between two rival gangs and they didn't even know he was a prosecutor. Link previously posted above.

 

[SuperSmith]

I can not answer that as I am not a Ray Gricar. I don't think crashing the car would be the first choice however.

Who said his daughter was being tailed?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Why do you assume he's in the passenger's seat? If I were holding a driver hostage, I'd sit in the back, especially because I wouldn't want him to get a clear look at my face. I'd also where a seatbelt, and I'd slash his seatbelt.

Okay, how does a murderer in the back drive the car if the driver doesn't go where the killer wants him to go?

and with regards to threatening Lara... I take it you're not a parent JJ... if someone threatens your children, you don't even take the chance and assume they're bluffing. Because you'd never be able to live with yourself if they died and you survived. It would not be worth trying to call their bluff, because you'd rather be dead than have harm come to your children.

A prosecutor would. These people understand bluffs and it is fairly difficult to coordinate across 2000+ miles.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I can not answer that as I am not a Ray Gricar. I don't think crashing the car would be the first choice however.

Who said his daughter was being tailed?

The tail was theory being discussed.

Jumping out could be another option, leaving the would-be killer to try to drive from the back seat.

 

[wijg]

One, in NYC. He was caught in the crossfire during a shootout between two rival gangs and they didn't even know he was a prosecutor. Link previously posted above.

I didn't ask how many were killed, I asked how many there were. How many district attorneys were there along that I-80 corridor between Youngstown and New York between 1996 and 2005? A few dozen? Lots of rural counties, lots of guys like Gricar that get re-elected or run unopposed and hold the seat for years. Can't be too many. And out of those three dozen or so, one had an attempt made on his life, and another went missing.

You cite the statistics of murder of prosecutors as a reason to deem it unlikely. Well, what are the statistics for prosecutors that just vanish without a trace? How many times has that happened in the last 100 years? Once? Twice? Ten times? Way less than murder or attempted murder.

 

[wijg]

I can not answer that as I am not a Ray Gricar. I don't think crashing the car would be the first choice however.

Who said his daughter was being tailed?

I was trying to give an example that "holding a gun to his head" wasn't the only way to threaten Ray. Someone could have said "I have someone tailing your daughter in Seattle, and if you don't do what i say, she's dead". Not likely, but just pointing out that there are many forms of coercion that can be effective, and we need not rule out coercion simply because "shooting a driver wouldn't be smart" as JJ suggested.

 

[wijg]

Okay, how does a murderer in the back drive the car if the driver doesn't go where the killer wants him to go?



A prosecutor would. These people understand bluffs and it is fairly difficult to coordinate across 2000+ miles.

LOL wut???? Plane ticket to Seattle. Find Lara. Call mobster friend when you've located her. Tail her and wait for instructions. That's all you need to "coordinate" between two mobsters. It's not difficult. We did have cell phones in 2005.

This form of coercion is not difficult and is used frequently against women forced to work in brothels to prevent them from running away. You start getting out of line? They show you pictures of your little sister leaving school, just to let you know they can get to her. You actually attempt to run away? They kill her, and maybe the rest of your family too.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I didn't ask how many were killed, I asked how many there were. How many district attorneys were there along that I-80 corridor between Youngstown and New York between 1996 and 2005? A few dozen? Lots of rural counties, lots of guys like Gricar that get re-elected or run unopposed and hold the seat for years. Can't be too many. And out of those three dozen or so, one had an attempt made on his life, and another went missing.

You cite the statistics of murder of prosecutors as a reason to deem it unlikely. Well, what are the statistics for prosecutors that just vanish without a trace? How many times has that happened in the last 100 years? Once? Twice? Ten times? Way less than murder or attempted murder.

I would assume perhaps 500-2,000, including federal and state prosecutors. Some of that depends on how you define the I-80 Corridor.

The only prosecutor that I know of who vanished was RFG.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

LOL wut???? Plane ticket to Seattle. Find Lara. Call mobster friend when you've located her. Tail her and wait for instructions. That's all you need to "coordinate" between two mobsters. It's not difficult. We did have cell phones in 2005.

Does he take the gun on the plane? The local mobster would actually have to know someone there. It isn't like they have a referral service.

This form of coercion is not difficult and is used frequently against women forced to work in brothels to prevent them from running away. You start getting out of line? They show you pictures of your little sister leaving school, just to let you know they can get to her. You actually attempt to run away? They kill her, and maybe the rest of your family too.

I'd like to see a link to demonstrate that.

Keep in mind RFG was a bit smarter than the average prostitute. He's not too likely to fall for that.

 

[wijg]

I would assume perhaps 500-2,000, including federal and state prosecutors. Some of that depends on how you define the I-80 Corridor.

The only prosecutor that I know of who vanished was RFG.

So a prosecutor vanishing without a trace is significantly more rare than a prosecutor being murdered.

My point is, you can't use statistics to rule out murder in favor of a different theory which is even more statistically unlikely.

 

[wijg]

Does he take the gun on the plane? The local mobster would actually have to know someone there. It isn't like they have a referral service.



I'd like to see a link to demonstrate that.

Keep in mind RFG was a bit smarter than the average prostitute. He's not too likely to fall for that.

What do you mean "fall for that"? You're operating under the assumption that the threat would be a "bluff". I'm not. Mobsters do not bluff. They don't like to take chances. They like the cards to be in their favor. They like when the house wins. Their entire business is predicated upon arranging things behind the scenes to predetermine outcomes and guarantee profit.

 

[wijg]

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/trafficker-threatened-kill-prostitutes-family-7850895

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...eign-sex-slaves-work-in-British-brothels.html

http://thesheaf.com/2015/01/11/a-spotlight-on-human-trafficking/

Here... your links to demonstrate that threats against family are a widely used tactic to keep women from escaping sex slavery.

I thought that was common knowledge.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

So a prosecutor vanishing without a trace is significantly more rare than a prosecutor being murdered.

My point is, you can't use statistics to rule out murder in favor of a different theory which is even more statistically unlikely.

Well, I don't, since I have not ruled out murder. It is very unlikely that RFG would be targeted and his body hidden. That has never happened in any of these cases. In some of these cases, the perpetrator wanted to send a message, **Mess with me (or "us"), and I'll ("we'll) kill you.** That did not happen here.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/trafficker-threatened-kill-prostitutes-family-7850895

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...eign-sex-slaves-work-in-British-brothels.html

http://thesheaf.com/2015/01/11/a-spotlight-on-human-trafficking/

Here... your links to demonstrate that threats against family are a widely used tactic to keep women from escaping sex slavery.

I thought that was common knowledge.

These refer to immigrants forced to work in prostitution. It isn't the "girl next door," who is being forced. This is not a good analogy for a guy living in Central PA with a daughter in Seattle.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

What do you mean "fall for that"? You're operating under the assumption that the threat would be a "bluff". I'm not. Mobsters do not bluff. They don't like to take chances. They like the cards to be in their favor. They like when the house wins. Their entire business is predicated upon arranging things behind the scenes to predetermine outcomes and guarantee profit.

And, it would be a lot easier to shoot him on the front lawn, possibly with the same level of risk.

 

[colette]

If Ray was murdered, then everyone would be looking for a killer. This way no one knows what happened and a possible murderer is walking free.

 

[howardstern]

And to my knowledge, SuperSmith never suggested LE planted them. Why would you automatically assume that's what he was insinuating?

Because the laptop is owned by the state, I'm not sure who else we could reasonable suspect.

And for the record, I believe it to be about 80% likely that they were tossed after the fact. And I know I'm not alone in that thinking. There are very reasonable people on here that believe the same thing.

Well believing or having faith is one thing, I'd like to see actual facts that support such a theory before I make any kind of judgement. That isn't to completely rule it out completely, but witnesses have said that they saw Ray potentially using the laptop in his car in Lewisburg, and if not, at Raystown Lake the day prior. Could these witnesses be wrong? Maybe, but it's a lot more compelling than the evidence (or lack of) we have of somebody planting the laptop/hard drive after the fact. In fact, there is NO reason to believe anyone but Ray was the last one to be in possession of the laptop at this point - speculation on speculation.

Of course Implying that somebody planted the laptop, would also mean you're subscribing to a theory (whether it's foul play or run-away) that we have no evidence for, either. Putting a number on it is a bit disingenuous with the little info we have; way too many leaps of faith for me.

 

[wijg]

.... but witnesses have said that they saw Ray potentially using the laptop in his car in Lewisburg...

I thought we just went over that... JJ is the only one that says there were witnesses that put Ray in the car with the laptop. I have yet to see that information from any other source, much less a reputable MSM outlet.

 

[wijg]

Because the laptop is owned by the state, I'm not sure who else we could reasonable suspect.

Who the laptop is owned by is irrelevant. It was (likely) in Ray's possession when he left. So if it was foul play, whoever the perpetrator was would be most likely to have taken the laptop. Who issued the laptop does not mean a damn thing. Whoever came into contact with Ray would be likely be the one who had the laptop and ditched it months later. That does not mean it had to be law enforcement.

 

[MissJ]

I disagree the eye witness testimony is "mostly inaccurate." There is a high error rate, per witness, of about 30%, but 70% of the time it is accurate. There are a number of factors.

Please provide a link for your stats. Otherwise they are opinion. I'll take a homicide officers word over the word of others.