Poll: Was Shannan Gilbert Murdered?

[hawkshaw]

THE MAXIM OCCAMS RAZOR:
"William of Occam, an English scholastic philosopher who believed that assumptions introduced to explain something must not be multiplied beyond necessity."
.
Simply put the simplest explanation in a complicated scenario is usually correct.

* above taken from the book Echoes of my Soul - Robert Tanenbaum P.84.

 

[hawkshaw]

Occam's razor is often cited in stronger forms than Occam intended, as in the following statements. . .

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"

"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."

"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."

"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

 

[giagreen]

Mr. Hawkshaw
I actually really like your quotes. But what if both theories are equally as simple and no new evidence has come in for either theory?

 

[hawkshaw]

You stay with all of them until such time you can eliminate the theory or find evidence to support the theory.

The SIMPLE THEORY IS:

1. SG was a prostitute using Craig's List to advertise her wares.
2. She responds to a call and goes to Brewer's house. She spends three hours there.
3. Brewer says she didn't go there for the purpose of prostitution.
4. She dies soon after she leaves the house and the cause of death is still undetermined.
5. The SCPD can't seem to find her.
6. They only find her after a energetic cop and his dog find the 1st of 4 bodies of prostitutes of 4 gals who also advertised on Craigslist.
7. Brewer is quickly eliminated as a suspect by the PD.
8. IMO, with limited information but with experience in many homicide cases you simply can't eliminate a person like Brewer so soon after he becomes a POI. You just can't.
9. The letter to Newsday by a SCPD detective who said he heard the 23 911 call and said he heard nothing to suggest SG appeared by her voice appeared to be in peril. Now who could believe that.
10. The rumor that went viral saying the nursery owner was the killer. That rumor could have only taken its intensity if a cop or cops spread that rumor.

This is the simple theory to follow. All others are pure BS until such time they are proven to be false.

5 dead prostitutes dumped at Oak Beach. 4 are confirmed to be murdered. SG is not deemed to have been murdered. The other bodies were out there far longer than SG, but for some reason the ME can't make a cause of death when the simple conclusion is a body that has been exposed for far less than the others should have been easier for the ME to find a cause of death.

 

[anny ominus]

Meaghan and Amber were killed after Shannan disappeared. Meaghan in June and Amber in Sept. Shannan disappeared on May 1st. all 3 were in 2010.

All of the other 8 remains found on ocean parkway were out there far longer.

I find it odd that they cannot conclude a cause of death for Shannan as well. But I believe her remains were not found for 18 months. Perhaps that plays a role?

 

[Samantha Spade]

Occam's razor is often cited in stronger forms than Occam intended, as in the following statements. . .

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"

"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."

"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."

"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

-------------------------------------------------------

Hi Hawk,
IMHO, in theory Occam's razor is a pretty good one.
But is it really that helpful out in the field? Unless the guys working the case are Sherlock Holmes or Robocop or detectives who really do want to know the truth and not look for the easy way out to close a case. I'm not trying to imply the SCPD are that way. I'm just speaking in general terms. The over use of Occam's razor has been a pet peeve of mine. Lack of evidence (which otherwise could have been obtained by a diligent investigator) can lead one to believe using Occam's razor was very close to the edge. When it wasn't.

 

[Gerontion]

"In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not."
Albert Einstein

 

[Deleted member 96356]

Not sure if JB had a girlfriend or how old his daughter was. But I was thinking maybe he had a pair of women's shoes by his door and in a panic and out of it she just put them on and ran. Just a thought.

Gilbert noted that she identified as her daughter’s the pocketbook and phone cops discovered, but said she didn’t recognize the shoes.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/cri...-daughter-back-article-1.989357#ixzz2W2X9DUwH

BBM

My reaction to that is: !!!!!! I wonder if Shannan's boyfriend or sister recognized the shoes? If no one close to her recognized the shoes... that should have been a concern for LE, imo.

Meanwhile, thank you to the person upthread who directed me to the MP discussion re: Shannan's clothes and possessions. So now I'm wondering what happened to the blonde wig... and did anyone who saw her that night describe her as a blonde? And still wondering about the footprints in the sand: bare feet, flat shoes, heels?

Re: her mother saying it sounded like she was being forced into a trunk, or a truck... what would that sound like? Sorry, but other than a slam, which could be a trunk or a door, it's hard for me to imagine how you'd come to that conclusion, unless there was actual dialogue like "get in" or "don't make me get in".

 

[giagreen]

BBM


Re: her mother saying it sounded like she was being forced into a trunk, or a truck... what would that sound like? Sorry, but other than a slam, which could be a trunk or a door, it's hard for me to imagine how you'd come to that conclusion, unless there was actual dialogue like "get in" or "don't make me get in".

The problem is that none of us get to hear the 911 call. I don't think even SG mother got to hear the 911 call. So, I don't realy get how anyone can say much about the 911 call other then that LE failed SG that night.
I've heard such conflictin stories about the 911. One saying that once she was out of the house she was yelling to "get away from me" and that's what lead to people thinking she was taken and put in a trunk or whatever. Then I hear that she was screaming "get away from me" well still in JB house.
I honestly have no idea. I just wish that LE would release the 911 calls so we can hear it for our selfs.

 

[LINative13]

It sucks. This story has been forgotten and has become more of folklore here in the Babylon area.

 

[hawkshaw]

TOO MANY people involved, I suspect for the truth to come out. I also believe Brewer is smack dab in the middle of it. If the cops go to all the people they need to talk to a lot of people aren't going to be very happy. I think a Mr.SB is one of those persons.

 

[To Kill a Mockingbird]

But the pol that was the buyer is alive and well.

i thought it was
farry heingold.

the name was...changed.... to protect
some creep

maybe one of the creepiest of creeps.

 

[hawkshaw]

A new story in Newsday for tomorrow's edition regarding the man that now heads the Gilgo Beach investigation. It gets better everyday.

 

[deedee21]

A new story in Newsday for tomorrow's edition regarding the man that now heads the Gilgo Beach investigation. It gets better everyday.

I guess I will buy the Newsday tomorrow. But I will still look forward to you telling the story.

 

[mcme]

I don't know a thing about this Burke guy or what he's allegedly trying to cover up, but all these insinuations with no evidence to back it up reeks of the same type of vendetta a former member here had against a bunch of his neighbors. Opinions are all well and good, but back them up with something besides I heard or I was told before gathering up the lynch mob.I'm having a hard time believing that any type of child /pedophilia would be tolerated for even one second at any level of law enforcement, let alone at the very top where there are so many motivated people who would use any advantage to further themselves.

 

[To Kill a Mockingbird]

I don't know a thing about this Burke guy or what he's allegedly trying to cover up, but all these insinuations with no evidence to back it up reeks of the same type of vendetta a former member here had against a bunch of his neighbors. Opinions are all well and good, but back them up with something besides I heard or I was told before gathering up the lynch mob.I'm having a hard time believing that any type of child /pedophilia would be tolerated for even one second at any level of law enforcement, let alone at the very top where there are so many motivated people who would use any advantage to further themselves.

what lynch mob?
if you watch the wpix piece on burke...
you'll see that the station is questioning quite a few things about burke.

one of them being his integrity regarding police rules and breaking them (CONSIDERING HE IS THE CHIEF OF POLICE... he should be exemplary in following police procedure!!! and unimpeachable in his integrity)
and another being...beating up a perp...which now makes the perp a victim of the cop...who was a victim of the perp in the first place.

the station also questions what exactly was IN that duffle bag.

i don't think one poster on ws..that being hawk who has been screaming from the rafters about jb for years now...
is a lynch mob.

but...i could be wrong.
oh heavy sigh.

in regards to the one poster who was lynching the good doc being lisk..
well... the police said the good doc was not a p.o.i.
no one had to LISTEN to fluke.
but then again
mari does have a law suit against the good doc.

the results of that law suit from the judge...will be
enlightening..... hopefully......

just waiting...and waiting for the judge to make a decision...
is....grrrrrrrrrrrrrr annoying.

 

[hawkshaw]

MCME - Just where do you think all this information is coming from? Why do you think the response came from a spokesman of the SCPD, and NOT from the police commissioner? Why do you think Bellone made the statement defending Burke? Because Bellone stands something to lose.

Why do you think Dep CE Shneider said 'no comment' for Newsday when he burned up the telephones with Newsday trying to quash the story?

I love people like you when you use the age old excuse to deflect from the truth - what proof do you have? Do you think you will get the truth from Spota. Spota has a lot to hide.

Do you think I was just hatched out of an Easter Egg the other day?

It is not the question he WENT to the house, the question is WHY he went. He is entitled to make a stupid mistake if someone stole his property. That is forgivable. We are only human.

Do you folks have any idea the media was sitting on this story looking for corroboration.

Trust me there is more to come.

Wise up and stop defending this that has wrecked people's lives since he was a child.

 

[giagreen]

So does Burke know if SG was murdered or have any input for this thread?

 

[To Kill a Mockingbird]

MCME -

Do you think I was just hatched out of an Easter Egg the other day?

It is not the question he WENT to the house, the question is WHY he went. He is entitled to make a stupid mistake if someone stole his property. That is forgivable. We are only human.

Do you folks have any idea the media was sitting on this story looking for corroboration.

Trust me there is more to come.

Wise up and stop defending this that has wrecked people's lives since he was a child.

does the word sociopath come handy right about now?

and i was told in thailand
you can order up a child to rape and then kill.

oh my gawd.

i am now.....wondering exactly WHAT....jb was doing in thailand?
and exactly HOW he's connected to the LISK investigation?

oh my ......gawd.

 

[hawkshaw]

MCME - I have never made any bones about it - I have a blood vendetta with that evil person. I home him and Spota have a suicide pact and they are found dead in each other's arms.

The 1/2 million dollar bail should tell you must of what you need to know. They are terrorizing this guy into silence. You did hear the mother say the kid fears for his life. He has good reason to believe that.

Where the hell is the FBI in all of this. The child angle has been out there for a long time. Do you really think a newspaper, even a scandal sheet would follow this case as PIX and Newsday did if they weren't satisfied there was something to look at.

Ask him to produce his passport to put the rumor down he visits Thailand on a regular basis. OK, maybe he likes the food.

See if you can get a hold of his personnel folder and see if he was ever charged with kidnapping and burglary in connection with a prostitute.

How about the gal that is supposed to be his baby mama. If the one I know of is the same one they say it is then you should check out her arrest and conviction record.