Retrieving wreckage from AirAsia Flight To Singapore- no survivors recovered #2

[SouthAussie]

I just hope the adults keep the local children from the beaches for a while .. it will not be pretty after 3+ days in the water.

 

[gregjrichards]

Thanks for all your posts and updates it is great to go somewhere & get the very latest information. Happy New Year to you all.

 

[Bravo]

Yes Happy New Year all!

 

[Intermezzo]

SURABAYA, Indonesia — Radar data being examined by investigators appeared to show that AirAsia Flight QZ8501 made an "unbelievably" steep climb before it crashed, possibly pushing it beyond the Airbus A320’s limits, said a source familiar with the probe’s initial findings.

The data was transmitted before the aircraft disappeared from the screens of air traffic controllers in Jakarta on Sunday ... "So far the numbers taken by the radar are unbelievably high. This rate of climb is very high, too high. It appears to be beyond the performance envelope of the aircraft," he said.

The preliminary findings sharpen the focus on the role bad weather and the crew’s reaction to storms and clouds in the area ....

http://www.bdlive.co.za/world/asia/...-steep-climb-before-airasia-crash-says-source

could the storm the plane was trying to avoid be considered a super-cell thunderstorm with the possibility of very strong updrafts?
Would an updraft be strong enough to raise the altitude of a plane?

 

[Hatfield]

could the storm the plane was trying to avoid be considered a super-cell thunderstorm with the possibility of very strong updrafts?
Would an updraft be strong enough to raise the altitude of a plane?

For the first question, I am not sure if the storm that was in front of the plane would classify as a super-cell or not. However, the very large storm that formed quickly behind the plane I am pretty sure could be called a super-cell. That thing was monstrous. Both the 1 in front and the 1 behind the plane were very strong.

I can answer the 2nd question with confidence that YES storms like the plane was near can definiely cause either an updraft or a downdraft that could physically and violently move the plane either up or down.

One of the scary things about listening to some of the reports is they said that some of the times the onboard radar on planes doesn't always indicate the true severity of a storm. Like there could be a part of the storm that doesnt look all that bad on their radar and yet when they enter the area, it is much worse than what it looked like.

 

[CARIIS]

SURABAYA, Indonesia — Radar data being examined by investigators appeared to show that AirAsia Flight QZ8501 made an "unbelievably" steep climb before it crashed, possibly pushing it beyond the Airbus A320’s limits, said a source familiar with the probe’s initial findings.

The data was transmitted before the aircraft disappeared from the screens of air traffic controllers in Jakarta on Sunday ... "So far the numbers taken by the radar are unbelievably high. This rate of climb is very high, too high. It appears to be beyond the performance envelope of the aircraft," he said.

The preliminary findings sharpen the focus on the role bad weather and the crew’s reaction to storms and clouds in the area ....

http://www.bdlive.co.za/world/asia/...-steep-climb-before-airasia-crash-says-source

f accurate – stunning! And it fills in some blanks for us. It accounts for different altitudes in the beginning of story. It was at this alt but was actually here but then was revised again and again.

When what if, in fact, all were true as a result of an intense updraft during those moments. It would certainly explain the low speed ground consistently reported, it would be congruent in terms of pilot reaction to a sudden uncommanded pitch up (disengage autopilot and assume manual control). Reaching ceiling max is serious stuff, the plane is at risk of structurally falling apart,(just ain’t designed to "be"there) it certainly would indicate why no communications hands were more than full.

Additionally, if the notions, that the plane is reasonably intact in water that too could fit in here. In any stall, what is needed most is distance from the ground(stall testing certification runs are done at high altitude for that reason). Period. Time to build speed back up and regain control. Well, if true, he had 39,000 feet.

He was air force, obviously skilled -so it could fall into the category that he had enough sky, did in fact dive, regain airspeed, and was attempting to stabilize flight when he ran out of sky. By this point, there was probably a really good chance that his aircraft had been damaged to some degree limiting the ability to possibly pull out.

In addition he was heavy, which impacts center of gravity and all sorts of stuff when being forced to hope a commercial jetliner can withstand "air show" tolerances! In some way it also might fit it with the first findings were from the right rear (the raft location – the door). Often when stressed, especially in dive, the stabilizer (rear part) of plane is under tremendous stress – so the likelihood of the back door coming off during the dive might make some sense as well.

And wow, if that is accurate, and the plane is somewhat intact, this dude is going to become an aviation hero (if true) possibly, just possibly, he got his aircraft out of a deep, ceiling induced stall (intense stuff- at ceiling other dynamics come in just as it relates to structural integrity in and of itself), possibly got the aircraft back to enough lift to commence a flattening of the dive (that to is very tough stuff, stress wise on the structures), maybe bought the thing back to something resembling flight, and was possibly able to get her ready to ditch as opposed to just run out of sky as AF did.

Quite amazing IF the info is true, I still have some hangups with the 2.2 miles between the shadow, if it is it, and the debris area already found, but then again, what has been found could easily be drift related after impact. It still " feels", until we know the actual status of the fuselage, somewhat questionable.

Poor guy could have experienced a secondary stall (as it sounds) trying to come out of initial one.

But again, if the sonar is true, and the she came to rest inverted on the sea floor, that too also makes some sense in this scenario in that the plane had a very rough morning.




There are all kinds of "things":

Spin

stall:

Trying to glide directly related to height speed etc

 

[CARIIS]

could the storm the plane was trying to avoid be considered a super-cell thunderstorm with the possibility of very strong updrafts?
Would an updraft be strong enough to raise the altitude of a plane?

without a doubt --thunderstorm cloud contains approximately 275 million gallons of water. With 750,000 gallons of water going over Niagara Falls each second, it would take six minutes for an equal amount of water to go over the Falls. So how much does a thunderstorm cloud weigh? With one gallon of water weighing 8.33 pounds, the weight of the cloud is 2.3 billion pounds, or 1.1 million tons.

They were level 5 storms

The colors you see in images from weather radars represent intensity scales for precipitation, including thunderstorms. These colors are based on how much radio energy is scattered back to the radar antenna by rain, snow, sleet or hail. Before it became relatively cheap and easy to transmit color images, the U.S. National Weather Service came up with a system of classifying radar images as levels 1 through 5 based on the amounts of energy scattered back by the precipitation. These levels were indicated on the old, black and white, national radar summary chart. Level 5 precipitation is an indication that lightning, with its thunder, and extreme turbulence as well as heavy precipitation are probably found inside the rain storm. Levels 3 and 4 also indicate thunderstorms that a prudent pilot would not want to fly into. These thunderstorm levels might be mentioned to a pilot asking for weather information but are rarely used in reports for the general public.

Or to put it another way

1 cubic yard of water at 68 degrees Fahrenheit weighs 1,681.297 pounds.



http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/archives-thunderstorms.htm

http://www.answers.com/Q/How_much_does_a_cubic_yard_of_water_weigh

 

[newone]

Ohhhh .....

“It seems all the wreckage found has drifted more than 50 kilometers (30 miles) from yesterday’s location,” said Vice Air Marshal Sunarbowo Sandi, search and rescue coordinator in Pangkalan Bun on Borneo island, the closest town to the site.

“We are expecting those bodies will end up on beaches.”

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1171286-airasia-crash-sonar-appears-to-show-wreckage/

One thing I love about WS is that it teaches me something new === I just had to find out more about the fastest current speeds ((South Africa Agulhas and the Gulf Stream off Florida - short answers)) - turns out that 2 metre/sec!! or over 7KM per hour -- yikes!

http://www.oceanflowenergy.com/ocean-currents.html

I was stunned to hear that wreckage could drift 50 KM ((was of course thinking of heavy intact airliner laying at bottom)). Smaller items could easily drift that far. Math wizards would welcome this challenge --

Thanks SA

 

[SeriouslySearching]

The more we learn, it seems, the less I know. :hearno:

 

[newone]

The more we learn, it seems, the less I know. :/

Me too! Continuous learning curves for me --

 

[CARIIS]

Sourcie CNN knowledgeable man: The plane debris picked up was 100 miles, NOT 6, from last radar sweep that day. His stuff has been solid throughout! MAL 370 nonsense.

 

[newone]

Sourcie CNN knowledgeable man: The plane debris picked up was 100 miles, NOT 6, from last radar sweep that day. His stuff has been solid throughout! MAL 370 nonsense.

On the first thread we had a screen shot of primary and secondary tracking and ironically it was the secondary tracking that pinpointed/was close to the impact site. I'll try and find it and attach here. At the time I found it amazing that it was a mobile app that pointed it out.

 

[Dr. Know?]

I thought I'd try translating some of the news articles from twitter. Probably my one and only attempt after reading about 10 articles now. It's google translate, btw.

Indonesia. Are the remains of AirAsia flight QZ8501

Wednesday December 31, 2014


In the last hours, the National Search and Rescue Agency of Indonesia (Basarnas) has confirmed new developments in the search QZ8501 AirAsia flight that disappeared last Sunday with 162 people on board.

After recovering dozens of bodies, the relief agency revealed that found the exact spot on the bottom of the Java Sea where the remains of the crashed plane.

The discovery was made by one of the vessels involved in the search and rescue operation; as he sweeps the seabed sonar achieved located 3 miles from where the first bodies from the wreckage were found, although it is unclear if it is fragmented, it is known that the fuselage of the aircraft's mouth down and is about 30 meters below the sea surface.

By the time rescuers struggle against climatic conditions have worsened recently, the priorities for the rescuers are: the location of the victims and the recovery of the black boxes in order to establish the causes of the tragedy.

The president of Indonesia, Joko Widodo, thanked the international cooperation in the search for the stricken aircraft, while expressing its sympathy and solidarity with the families of the victims, the government of that country enabled a center for the identification of bodies in the city of Surabaya, where the work of forensic medicine that allow one hand bring some additional research and make delivery of the bodies to the families affected will be made.

http://redesvision.com/articulo.php...Hallan_los_restos_del_vuelo_QZ8501_de_AirAsia

 

[CARIIS]

[h=2]An Indonesian search and rescue official has backtracked on his earlier statement that an AirAsia flight victim was wearing a life jacket. The official now says, according to Reuters, that a victim and a life jacket were found at separate times. We will continue to monitor characterizations of the plane crash and update with available context.[/h]

 

[SouthAussie]

Doomed AirAsia flight QZ8501 would have been upside down when it hit the water, if reports of the plane's current condition are true.

It has been reported that the Airbus A320-200 has been found largely intact but upside down at the bottom of the ocean.

Former British Airways pilot Stephen Buzdygan told the Telegraph the 24m-deep crash site would have been far too shallow for the plane to flip after submerging.

"I would suggest that there was some sort of upset to the aircraft – severe downdrafts or clear air turbulence," he said.

"They have had some sort of upset and not been able to control it."

http://www.9news.com.au/world/2015/01/01/09/36/qz8501-was-likely-upside-down-when-it-crashed

Terrifying

 

[Dr. Know?]

Channel NewsAsia

Asia Pacific

LIVE BLOG: AirAsia flight QZ8501 crash day 5

POSTED: 01 Jan 2015 07:52


LIVE BLOG: AirAsia flight QZ8501 day 4


The search for more bodies and plane wreckage continues on Thursday (Jan 1), as recovery crews raced against time amid adverse weather conditions.


All times listed are Singapore time. Refresh this page for updates.


7.00AM: More bodies have been recovered from the search area, bringing the total to 10, the Wall Street Journal reported.


One of the bodies recovered has been identified as Kevin Alexander Soetjipto, a finance student at Australia's Monash University, the Malaysian navy said. He was identified though a wallet found on his body.


6.30AM: A vigil was held in the Indonesian city of Surabaya for the victims of QZ8501, with hundreds of residents and relatives of those on board lighting candles and observing a minute's silence, BBC reports. All New Year's Eve celebrations in East Java province were cancelled.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...=TWTCNA&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

eta, Kevin mentioned above would have been 20 today. (found out through translating articles)

 

[SouthAussie]

This is an explanation about the TV images that were so upsetting to the waiting relatives ....


The network, TVOne, quickly issued an on-air apology. Despite the apparent insensitivity, those familiar with the Indonesian media would not have been surprised by the broadcast.

Arriving in Indonesia as a Fairfax correspondent eight years ago, the graphic images in newspapers and on television screens was confronting. The idea of respecting the dead and the sensitivities of relatives was not apparent.

The embarrassment over broadcasting these latest images in Indonesia is more to do with it being seen, without warning, by the waiting relatives.

Screening such images is about more than satisfying morbid curiosities. Culturally, there appears to be more of a sense of confronting, and then accepting, death.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/bodies-...pite-apology-over-qz8501-20141231-12fybi.html

 

[SouthAussie]

It took about two minutes for air-traffic control to respond to AirAsia Bhd. (AIRA)’s ill-fated Flight 8501 when the pilot requested permission to fly higher, according to Indonesia’s air navigation operator.

The “pilot didn’t reply.”



In the final communication from the plane, one of the pilots asked to climb 38,000 feet, said Wisnu Darjono, director at AirNav Indonesia, citing a transcript of the conversation from the National Transport Safety Committee. Air traffic control authorized the plane to ascend only to 34,000 feet about two minutes later, after which contact was lost, Darjono said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...uest-was-met-by-two-minute-radio-silence.html

 

[newone]

POST 802 from last thread contains the info about the accuracy of the fight app w/r/t bodies found versus radar


((FlightRadar24))

 

[SouthAussie]

In the AirAsia crash, many pilots and safety experts have questioned whether the airline’s dispatching system inadvertently routed the Airbus A320 into a collection of intense storm cells.

Today, Indonesia is one of 21 countries on Europe’s blacklist. And after a 2014 audit, an arm of the United Nations urged improvements in the country’s safety system. As recently as Dec. 11, the EU’s executive arm said it found “no objective or conclusive evidence that the implementation of the corrective action plan” by Indonesian officials was adequate.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/airasia...indonesias-air-safety-shortcomings-1420070681