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Russia Attacks Ukraine - 23 Feb 2022 #10
- Thread starter margarita25
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So what do you think could be happening behind the scenes?There is the ''theater of war'' and then there is just theater. The whole W group versus P makes me wonder what plot is unfolding backstage during this world stage distraction? speculation, imo.
View attachment 432395
Satellite photos, reports suggest Belarus building army camp for Wagner fighters
Satellite images analyzed by the Associated Press on Saturday showed what appeared to be a newly built military-style camp in Belarus, with statements from a Belarusian guerrilla group and officials suggesting it may be used to house fighters from the Wagner mercenary group.www.ctvnews.ca
This satellite image provided by Planet Labs PBC and taken on Friday, June 30, 2023, shows apparent recent construction of tents at a former military base outside the Belarusian town of Osipovichi. As part of a deal to end a rebellion in Russia by Wagner Group mercenaries, Belarus’s president says he offered the fighters an abandoned military unit to set up camp and the leader of an exiled Belarusian guerrilla organization told The AP it is near Osipovichi. (Planet Labs PBC via AP)
''Satellite images analyzed by the Associated Press on Saturday showed what appeared to be a newly built military-style camp in Belarus, with statements from a Belarusian guerrilla group and officials suggesting it may be used to house fighters from the Wagner mercenary group.
The images provided by Planet Labs PLC suggest that dozens of tents have been erected within the past two weeks at a former military base outside Osipovichi, a town 230 kilometres (142 miles) north of the Ukrainian border. A satellite photo taken on Jun. 15 shows no sign of the rows of white and green structures that are clearly visible in a later image, dated Jun. 30.
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his fighters escaped prosecution and were offered refuge in Belarus last week after Minsk helped broker a deal to end what appeared to be an armed insurrection by the mercenary group. The abortive revolt saw Wagner troops capture a military headquarters in southern Russia and march hundreds of kilometres (miles) towards Moscow, seemingly unimpeded.''
I think this shows how shaky Putin’s hold is as leader. I’m intrigued at the possibility of behind the scenes drama unfolding. What are your thoughts?
I went to Holland this past May and was heartened to see so much support of Ukraine. In Amsterdam they have bikes decorated with paint and flowers and one was all yellow and blue, with a dedication to Ukraine. I saw flags everywhere and posters too.
Love it.
But Lukashenko, who brokered the deal, said on Thursday that Prigozhin was now in St Petersburg, or may have moved on to Moscow. “He is not on the territory of Belarus," Lukashenko said.
www.reuters.com
apnews.com
Mercenary chief Prigozhin back in Russia, Belarus's Lukashenko says
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mutinous chief of Wagner Group, was in Russia, but dismissed speculation that President Vladimir Putin would have him killed.
Belarus leader claims Wagner chief is in Russia, adding uncertainty about his fate after revolt
The president of Belarus says the mercenary leader who led a short-lived mutiny against the Kremlin is in Russia and his Wagner troops are in their field camps.
apnews.com
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rbbm
The Russian regime is expected to appropriate and exploit the lucrative web of companies Yevgeny Prigozhin built, rather than shut it down, experts believe. Photograph: AP
A demonstration in Bangui, Central African Republic, in support of the Russian offensive against Ukraine, in May 2022. Photograph: Carol Valade/AFP/Getty Images
www.theguardian.com
''Though attention has mainly focused on Wagner’s combat role, particularly in Ukraine in recent months, analysts and western intelligence officials say that in Africa it is the group’s economic and political activities that are important to Putin’s regime.
“Since its first deployments in 2017, Wagner has really become much more widespread and high profile. Now the Kremlin certainly seems to be trying to emphasise continuity, if not immediate expansion,” said Julia Stanyard, an expert on Wagner at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, last week reassured allies in Africa that Wagner group fighters deployed to the continent would not be withdrawn. In an interview with Russia Today, Lavrov promised that “instructors” and “private military contractors” would remain in CAR and Mali, the two countries in sub-Saharan Africa where Wagner has the biggest presence.''
''From multiple bases in and around Bangui, CAR’s capital, Wagner has run an extensive mining operation across the country. The group has also begun making and selling beer and spirits, and has been granted a hugely profitable concession to exploit rainforests in the south of CAR.
The biggest single project is the vast Ndassima goldmine, which has been taken over by Wagner and is being developed.''
The Russian regime is expected to appropriate and exploit the lucrative web of companies Yevgeny Prigozhin built, rather than shut it down, experts believe. Photograph: AP
A demonstration in Bangui, Central African Republic, in support of the Russian offensive against Ukraine, in May 2022. Photograph: Carol Valade/AFP/Getty Images
‘It is like a virus that spreads’: business as usual for Wagner group’s extensive Africa network
Despite Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against the Kremlin, his military contracts are proving too profitable to lose
''Though attention has mainly focused on Wagner’s combat role, particularly in Ukraine in recent months, analysts and western intelligence officials say that in Africa it is the group’s economic and political activities that are important to Putin’s regime.
“Since its first deployments in 2017, Wagner has really become much more widespread and high profile. Now the Kremlin certainly seems to be trying to emphasise continuity, if not immediate expansion,” said Julia Stanyard, an expert on Wagner at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, last week reassured allies in Africa that Wagner group fighters deployed to the continent would not be withdrawn. In an interview with Russia Today, Lavrov promised that “instructors” and “private military contractors” would remain in CAR and Mali, the two countries in sub-Saharan Africa where Wagner has the biggest presence.''
''From multiple bases in and around Bangui, CAR’s capital, Wagner has run an extensive mining operation across the country. The group has also begun making and selling beer and spirits, and has been granted a hugely profitable concession to exploit rainforests in the south of CAR.
The biggest single project is the vast Ndassima goldmine, which has been taken over by Wagner and is being developed.''
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Belarus says Wagner chief who staged mutiny is in Russia, raising questions about Kremlin’s strategy
Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led a short-lived mutiny against the Kremlin, is in Russia and his troops are in their field camps, according to the president of Belarus.
A photo hanging in the mansion showed a lineup of decapitated heads. In one published image, an oversized souvenir sledgehammer could also be seen with the inscription “for important negotiations.” The sledgehammer has become a symbol of Wagner after reports its troops used the tool to beat defectors to death.
The Russian media also published a collection of selfies that showed him posing in various wigs, fake beards and foreign uniforms, an apparent reflection of Wagner’s deployments to Syria and several African countries.
Asked if Prigozhin and his mercenaries would eventually move to Belarus, Lukashenko answered evasively that it would depend on the decisions of the Wagner chief and the Russian government.''
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July 7 2023
news.sky.com
5m ago10:45
In a tweet, James Cleverly said Russia "must not endanger the safety" of the facility - Europe's largest nuclear power plant - any longer.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has been pushing for access to the entire site after Ukraine claimed Russia had planted explosives there - claims Moscow denies.
Russia has so far only granted limited access to officials, citing the security situation.''
Ukraine war latest: Deadly blast at Russian explosives factory; why Putin regime 'may well collapse', according to one expert
At least six are reported to have died in the factory blast; a Ukrainian MP explains how the Wagner mutiny has "shattered" the myth of Vladimir Putin as a strongman; and the US is expected to approve sending cluster munitions, which are banned in 120 countries, to Ukraine today.
news.sky.com
''Ukraine war latest: Deadly blast at Russian explosives factory; why Putin regime 'may well collapse', according to one expert
At least six are reported to have died in the factory blast; a Ukrainian MP explains how the Wagner mutiny has "shattered" the myth of Vladimir Putin as a strongman; and the US is expected to approve sending cluster munitions, which are banned in 120 countries, to Ukraine today.''5m ago10:45
''Cleverly: Russia must stop endangering nuclear power plant
The UK's foreign secretary said Russia must give the UN's nuclear watchdog full access to the occupied Zaporizhzhia power plant to ensure "nuclear safety".In a tweet, James Cleverly said Russia "must not endanger the safety" of the facility - Europe's largest nuclear power plant - any longer.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has been pushing for access to the entire site after Ukraine claimed Russia had planted explosives there - claims Moscow denies.
Russia has so far only granted limited access to officials, citing the security situation.''
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‘How can I complain about heroes?’: A trans woman fights the Russians — and the misogyny of her Ukrainian comrades
Leysa Lavrenova has witnessed first-hand the different experiences of women and men on Ukraine’s front line. She is a soldier fighting on two fronts — defending her country from Russian aggression and combating stigma at home.
It was a brave and tumultuous decision for Lavrenova to transition, living in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine’s anti-LGBTQ hate levels are some of Europe’s worst, according to international organizations. And eastern Ukraine has long been bombarded by the homophobic campaigns of its Russian neighbours.''
''Sexual harassment in Ukraine’s military is widespread and part of an inherited Soviet culture of “toxic masculinity, sex discrimination and lack of professionalism,” according to a study by Invisible Battalion, an international advocacy group.
And Ukraine’s fight against Russia appears to be putting the women’s rights fight on hold.''
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US plans to send controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine
The White House defends the move, while acknowledging that such unexploded ordnance can harm civilians.
www.bbc.com
I have a couple questions, why is the US using cluster bombs that are banned in 100 countries? I know there will be answers that make sense, but it just seems like if this is banned in 100 countries there must be a very good reason for that. I also wonder why we have to tell the world every move we make! Is that something we have to do? Is there some type of protocol that demands we let the entire world we are going to send these cluster munitions to the Ukraine. I did read that there is a high failure rate with cluster bombs so maybe that is one reason we have to disclose we are sending the cluster munitions to Ukraine. I dunno much about all this type of stuff but just wondering
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ilovewings said:
I do not understand that either - why tell what other countries are sending & when!!??
Oh we here have Ukrainian flags everywhere! And on our busses & trams a Ukrainian flag stickers on the doors.
We even had some refugee Ukrainians perform at our Song & Dance Festival last night!
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JUL 7, 2023
What are the cluster munitions the US is expected to supply Ukraine? | CNN
The United States has confirmed it will supply cluster munitions to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package.
[...]
The US has a stockpile of cluster munitions known as DPICMs, or dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, that it no longer uses after phasing them out in 2016.
[...]
The bomblets in a DPICM have shaped charges that, when striking a tank or armored vehicle, “create a metallic jet that perforates metallic armor,” the article says, adding that it can take 10 or more bomblets to destroy an armored vehicle, but it may take only one to disable the armored vehicle’s weapons or render it immobile.
[...]
As the bomblets fall over a wide area, they can endanger non-combatants.
In addition, somewhere between 10% to 40% of the munitions fail, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. The unexploded munitions can then be detonated by civilian activity years or even decades later.
The Cluster Munition Coalition, an activist group trying to get the weapons banned everywhere, says potentially deadly cluster submunitions still lie dormant in Laos and Vietnam 50 years after their use.
[...]
Much of the world has banned the use of these weapons through the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), which also prohibits the stockpiling, production and transfer of them.
Though 123 nations have joined that convention, the United States, Ukraine, Russia and 71 other countries have not.
Using the munitions to attack enemy troops or vehicles is not illegal under international law, but striking civilians with the weapons could amount to a war crime, according to Human Rights Watch.
[...]
The US last used the weapons in Iraq from 2003 to 2006, the coalition says.
US forces began phasing them out in 2016 because of the danger they pose to civilians, according to a 2017 statement from US Central Command.
What are the cluster munitions the US is expected to supply Ukraine? | CNN
The United States has confirmed it will supply cluster munitions to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package.
[...]
The US has a stockpile of cluster munitions known as DPICMs, or dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, that it no longer uses after phasing them out in 2016.
[...]
The bomblets in a DPICM have shaped charges that, when striking a tank or armored vehicle, “create a metallic jet that perforates metallic armor,” the article says, adding that it can take 10 or more bomblets to destroy an armored vehicle, but it may take only one to disable the armored vehicle’s weapons or render it immobile.
[...]
As the bomblets fall over a wide area, they can endanger non-combatants.
In addition, somewhere between 10% to 40% of the munitions fail, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. The unexploded munitions can then be detonated by civilian activity years or even decades later.
The Cluster Munition Coalition, an activist group trying to get the weapons banned everywhere, says potentially deadly cluster submunitions still lie dormant in Laos and Vietnam 50 years after their use.
[...]
Much of the world has banned the use of these weapons through the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), which also prohibits the stockpiling, production and transfer of them.
Though 123 nations have joined that convention, the United States, Ukraine, Russia and 71 other countries have not.
Using the munitions to attack enemy troops or vehicles is not illegal under international law, but striking civilians with the weapons could amount to a war crime, according to Human Rights Watch.
[...]
The US last used the weapons in Iraq from 2003 to 2006, the coalition says.
US forces began phasing them out in 2016 because of the danger they pose to civilians, according to a 2017 statement from US Central Command.
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Since cluster bombs are against international law/convention and the US has a reputation to uphold, it's best if we are transparent about what we're about to do in sending those weapons. Everyone knows we didn't sign onto the convention, including many allies and most of NATO (UK signed on and ought therefore to uphold this 31 year old treaty - it's a treaty, after all).
UK, Germany, Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Spain all signed against this. It is law in their countries (and there are 100 other nations against it.
The United States, Russia and Ukraine did not sign and do not have this law.
111 nations have signed onto the convention, including many allies. They did this mostly in 2008. Since then, another 12 nations have signed onto the convention, but are nations that do not have a process to ratify within their own states.
People have given a lot to the cause of prohibiting these weapons. It's as bad as the land mine issues.
In my opinion. Here's the wikipedia article on the illegality of cluster bombs.
Two wrongs do not make a right, IMO. The geopolitical situation was out of our control well before Russia invaded Ukraine but the US could have been useful in the first weeks. This could have gone differently. I don't think Putin expected it to go this way - and now we have this desperate situation. By "we" I mean the entire planet. In the midst of the ecological collapse of our planet, this is what we (humans) have decided to do and apparently no one can fix it, only make it worse and worse.
UK, Germany, Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Spain all signed against this. It is law in their countries (and there are 100 other nations against it.
The United States, Russia and Ukraine did not sign and do not have this law.
111 nations have signed onto the convention, including many allies. They did this mostly in 2008. Since then, another 12 nations have signed onto the convention, but are nations that do not have a process to ratify within their own states.
People have given a lot to the cause of prohibiting these weapons. It's as bad as the land mine issues.
In my opinion. Here's the wikipedia article on the illegality of cluster bombs.
Two wrongs do not make a right, IMO. The geopolitical situation was out of our control well before Russia invaded Ukraine but the US could have been useful in the first weeks. This could have gone differently. I don't think Putin expected it to go this way - and now we have this desperate situation. By "we" I mean the entire planet. In the midst of the ecological collapse of our planet, this is what we (humans) have decided to do and apparently no one can fix it, only make it worse and worse.
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JUL 7, 2023
www.theguardian.com
[...]
“The Russians have a lot of stuff. That’s the problem,” Garry said, sitting on a green camping chair, set up in front of a console, and hidden in a shady copse. Both sides conceal their vehicles under tree cover. Sometimes, a shadow was visible in late afternoon and gave away a location, he said. His Ukrainian-made drone flew at a 1km altitude and was equipped with a night-time thermal camera that detected large objects, he explained.
[...]
The Ukrainian soldiers said they were grateful for the support from western nations but emphasised that more was needed to defeat the Russians. In a different field planted with sunflowers, a senior lieutenant known as “Cuba” chatted with a four-man crew. They sat on an AMX wheeled light tank, recently donated by France. British Husky infantry vehicles nestled under nearby foliage.
“The Russian army has an advantage in the number of people, tanks and artillery,” Cuba said. “The gap is not as wide as it was a year ago. But still there is a gap. We are moving forward, step by step. It isn’t an easy task.” He added: “We want more heavy equipment, to make a successful offensive operation. We need an advantage in heavy tanks – not just light ones – and artillery.”
The Russians had had a long time to prepare their defences, Cuba said. They have built the most extensive fortifications seen anywhere for decades, which included three layers of trenches, 30km deep, he said and had laid a lot of mines. When his brigade stormed an enemy position last month, they found multiple underground chambers reinforced with concrete.
Cuba expressed frustration at some foreign politicians. “My perception is support from the west is too little, too late. You have to analyse the situation, with too many stakeholders. You react to yesterday’s realities and not today’s.” What would he say to those who thought the counteroffensive was a flop? “Come here and help,” he said. “We need Russia’s complete defeat so this doesn’t repeat in 10-15 years.”
[...]
‘We need Russia’s complete defeat’: Ukrainian forces upbeat on the frontline
As the counteroffensive slowly advances, those doing the fighting call for more arms from the west
“The Russians have a lot of stuff. That’s the problem,” Garry said, sitting on a green camping chair, set up in front of a console, and hidden in a shady copse. Both sides conceal their vehicles under tree cover. Sometimes, a shadow was visible in late afternoon and gave away a location, he said. His Ukrainian-made drone flew at a 1km altitude and was equipped with a night-time thermal camera that detected large objects, he explained.
[...]
The Ukrainian soldiers said they were grateful for the support from western nations but emphasised that more was needed to defeat the Russians. In a different field planted with sunflowers, a senior lieutenant known as “Cuba” chatted with a four-man crew. They sat on an AMX wheeled light tank, recently donated by France. British Husky infantry vehicles nestled under nearby foliage.
“The Russian army has an advantage in the number of people, tanks and artillery,” Cuba said. “The gap is not as wide as it was a year ago. But still there is a gap. We are moving forward, step by step. It isn’t an easy task.” He added: “We want more heavy equipment, to make a successful offensive operation. We need an advantage in heavy tanks – not just light ones – and artillery.”
The Russians had had a long time to prepare their defences, Cuba said. They have built the most extensive fortifications seen anywhere for decades, which included three layers of trenches, 30km deep, he said and had laid a lot of mines. When his brigade stormed an enemy position last month, they found multiple underground chambers reinforced with concrete.
Cuba expressed frustration at some foreign politicians. “My perception is support from the west is too little, too late. You have to analyse the situation, with too many stakeholders. You react to yesterday’s realities and not today’s.” What would he say to those who thought the counteroffensive was a flop? “Come here and help,” he said. “We need Russia’s complete defeat so this doesn’t repeat in 10-15 years.”
[...]
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