Russia Attacks Ukraine - 23 Feb 2022 #11

[Simply Southern]

There is not a lot of people left in Ukraine, 26 million. It's 4 million more than the population of Florida. There's no way Florida could fight Russia and win. It would be insane to even think Florida could win against Russia. How can anyone think that Ukraine could overthrow Russia at this point?
Moo...

 

[Dotta]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1894132785604170028

 

[Cedars]

There is not a lot of people left in Ukraine, 26 million. It's 4 million more than the population of Florida. There's no way Florida could fight Russia and win. It would be insane to even think Florida could win against Russia. How can anyone think that Ukraine could overthrow Russia at this point?
Moo...

You might as well ask, how did Afganistan overthrow the US? Of course, they didn't. The US invaded, tried for 20 years to eliminate the Taliban, and then 'withdrew', ie ETA gave up - they weren't really defeated.

The goal is not to overthrow Russia. The goal is to stop Russia's attempt to overthrow Ukraine.

 

[I am not Sherlock H.]

You might as well ask, how did Afganistan overthrow the US? Of course, they didn't. The US invaded, tried for 20 years to eliminate the Taliban, and then 'withdrew', ie were defeated.

The goal is not to overthrow Russia. The goal is to stop Russia's attempt to overthrow Ukraine.

Thank you @Cedars for this voice. Yes this makes sense and is rational.

If one is simply to use a size constraint as a basis, it is not IMO practical. If that basis is used…… then it could unfortunately become a matter of he who is largest……. And as many here might surmise or have actually lived, that is not advised nor practical. Even as young children, sadly many have been ‘bullied’ by others. MOO

 

[Cedars]

I can't imagine how Putin can believe he could actually 'conquer' Ukrainians. Like they would all fall meekly in line like ordinary Russians, now they've had several decades of democracy, and lost so many lives in this war, plus 300 years of grievances against Russia.

The world would face tens of millions of Ukranian refugees, followed by constant insurgency and guerilla warfare within Ukraine.

JMO

 

[Vern]

"New Draft Agreement Between Ukraine and the US. ​

Guarantees for Kiev on the Table.​

View attachment 566199

The US and Ukraine are said to be close to concluding a new agreement on investment and security.

US President Donald Trump confirmed that he will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

According to the draft document obtained by Bloomberg,
the United States will commit to supporting a 'free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine' striving for 'lasting peace'.

The agreement is to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries,
and one of its key elements will be investment cooperation.

Significantly,
the US also dropped its earlier demand that Kiev transfer $500 billion from raw material extraction
as a form of repayment for the aid.

Here are the details of the new contract​

The two sides plan to create a joint reconstruction fund, financed 50-50.
The fund is to include revenues from Ukraine's state-owned enterprises and raw materials extraction,
as well as capital investment from the United States.

The project indicates that the fund will be directed to investments in strategic sectors of the Ukrainian economy, such as the mining industry and port development.

Additionally,
the project assumes that in the future the United States will be able to recover some of the funds that it invested in the defense and reconstruction of Ukraine,
striving to restore its pre-conflict economic potential.

According to the draft agreement,
Ukraine is to commit to transferring
50 percent of its revenues from the extraction of natural resources –
such as gas, oil and minerals – to the fund.

After deducting operating costs,
half of the profits from these sectors will go to the joint investment budget.

The funds are to be used to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by the war,
develop the economy,
and secure the country's financial independence."

Much more in the link

Nowa oferta dla Ukrainy. Oto co USA proponują

USA i Ukraina mają być bliskie zawarcia nowego porozumienia dotyczącego inwestycji i bezpieczeństwa. Według projektu Waszyngton ma zadeklarować wsparcie dla "wolnej, suwerennej i bezpiecznej" Ukrainy. Prezydent...

www.money.pl

Shall we call this "Budapest Memorandum 2.0" when Ukraine was guaranteed same future safety and security by same signatories in exchange for their nukes?

I'll wait to hear Zelinskyy's thoughts on this latest before ... as he seems to have quite a different interpretation of all the previous offers than the US administration's.

 

[Vern]

There is not a lot of people left in Ukraine, 26 million. It's 4 million more than the population of Florida. There's no way Florida could fight Russia and win. It would be insane to even think Florida could win against Russia. How can anyone think that Ukraine could overthrow Russia at this point?
Moo...

Ukraine is not attempting "to overthrow Russia".

Russia is attempting to "overthrow Ukraine" (they are the invaders).

Ukraine is attempting to protect, defend and regain it's OWN sovereign territory. Nothing more. True Democracies tend not to threaten to overthrow other nations (or parts of them) ... or to invade them.

.

 

[Marysmith]

There is not a lot of people left in Ukraine, 26 million. It's 4 million more than the population of Florida. There's no way Florida could fight Russia and win. It would be insane to even think Florida could win against Russia. How can anyone think that Ukraine could overthrow Russia at this point?
Moo...

What are you talking about? Do you think Ukraine is the aggressor here?

 

[branmuffin]

It's standard. In the Israeli-Gaza war. Qatar is the intermediary. Israel and Gaza only communicate through Qatar. Nations don't meet and have a sit down. They each pass their wants through the intermediary. That's why deals take so long to complete, it's a back and forth.

The US and the European countries know what Zelensky wants, he's constantly in the media. The Secretary of the Treasurer, Vice President, Secretary of State and a general met with Zelensky last week, at different times. A US negotiating team is meeting with Putin. When and if the two sides finalize their "want list", then the give and take begins.

Look back to history, this is the way it works.
Moo

Always been done? Really? The negotiators for a peace deal with Germany were Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and Harry Truman. They negotiated with Germany (the original combatant) in Germany. They sat down with Germany who was designated a place in the corner, not at the table. They started by having four zones of occupation. Those four zones didn't include Germany.

So who are the intermediaries? The USA? That's it? No Ukraine? The country who has borne the brunt of Russia's aggression? The country whose President is saying that Zelensky caused the war and is a dictator? And all his 'negotiating' teams are basically singing from the same songbook - that Ukraine isn't able to list their wants while Russia gets to finagle some deal with Trump. What two sides? There is no two sides only a group of negotiators who are parroting Trump's threats. What's wrong with that picture?

 

[Donswife48]

Always been done? Really? The negotiators for a peace deal with Germany were Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and Harry Truman. They negotiated with Germany (the original combatant) in Germany. They sat down with Germany who was designated a place in the corner, not at the table. They started by having four zones of occupation. Those four zones didn't include Germany.

So who are the intermediaries? The USA? That's it? No Ukraine? The country who has borne the brunt of Russia's aggression? The country whose President is saying that Zelensky caused the war and is a dictator? And all his 'negotiating' teams are basically singing from the same songbook - that Ukraine isn't able to list their wants while Russia gets to finagle some deal with Trump. What two sides? There is no two sides only a group of negotiators who are parroting Trump's threats. What's wrong with that picture?

Zelensky is too unstable right now to actually negotiate with Russia because he can't seem to find a solid stand and goal for Ukraine. I've honestly been left with whiplash after reading his statements. It's best that he wait until someone actually finds out if Russia will negotiate and on what terms. Same with Europe wanting to be involved, they can't even agree among themselves, and Russia will just walk away from the circus of everyone attempting to one up another. I personally hope that Trump removes the USA from any further negotiations. Ukraine and Europe can then meet and decide how they want to proceed. JMO

 

[Cedars]

At least Trump has apparently widened his timeline to end the war to "within weeks" instead of 24 hrs.

The reality is it could be many months of negotiations, hopefully Trump can tolerate the frustration of not getting instant gratification.

Macron suggests Ukraine truce could be weeks away after talks with Trump

During a visit to the White House, the French leader said any peace deal must "not be a surrender of Ukraine".

www.bbc.com

 

[Charlot123]

What is really concerning is that for years, I have been listening to different analysts, prognoses, opinions. And neither came even a tad close to the reality. It is strange and scary that the world is so unpredictable. There are “think tanks”, specializing on both on Ukraine and Russian affairs, and yet, we really know nothing.

 

[Cedars]

Zelensky is too unstable right now to actually negotiate with Russia because he can't seem to find a solid stand and goal for Ukraine. I've honestly been left with whiplash after reading his statements. It's best that he wait until someone actually finds out if Russia will negotiate and on what terms. Same with Europe wanting to be involved, they can't even agree among themselves, and Russia will just walk away from the circus of everyone attempting to one up another. I personally hope that Trump removes the USA from any further negotiations. Ukraine and Europe can then meet and decide how they want to proceed. JMO

I don't understand the criticism of Zelensky, it was the US's previous administration that controlled the beginning and the process of the war. It was Biden who refused to open negotiations with Russia. The US has always been controlling this situation from behind the scenes, the US always does that.

Why isn't Trump/Americans blaming Biden (or Russia)? What is this business of making everyone else the scapegoat as though the US only arrived on the scene a few weeks ago?

"According to a senior European official, Biden had two strategic options: ramp up support to let Kyiv finish the job or push for peace negotiations. He chose neither."

Too Little Too Late: US Allies Say Biden Strategy Cost Ukraine Chance of Victory

In the month Joe Biden has left in office, his administration is focused on using all the resources it has left to deliver military aid for Ukraine and more sanctio…

financialpost.com

 

[SouthAussie]

Have you heard any other country offered to help my guarantee security for free or for a fee? Nope, they all said they stand with Ukraine but no one's offering them a chance at financial recovery and security.

Plenty of people are helping, and are willing to help, rebuild Ukraine already. Below are a few examples. There are more.
And the UK has already said it will put peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. PM 'ready' to put troops on ground in Ukraine to protect peace


"To help Ukraine in its recovery, reconstruction and modernisation efforts, the EU will launch a new support mechanism for the years 2024 to 2027. The Ukraine Facility is a dedicated instrument which will allow the EU to provide Ukraine with up to €50 billion in stable and predictable financial support during this period."

Recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine

Find out how the EU is supporting preparations for the country's recovery.

commission.europa.eu

"To this end, the Davos Baukultur Alliance — launched in 2023 at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in collaboration with the government of Switzerland and public and private sector leaders from across the globe — has formed a special focus group on Ukraine to mobilize support and provide expertise in support of reconstruction.

The Davos Baukultur Alliance includes government ministers of culture, urban planning and environment from more than 30 countries, including Anastasia Bondar, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister for Culture and Information Policy, with whom the Alliance collaborates closely to convene key rebuilding experts and supporters to help with reconstruction."

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/02/even-as-the-war-persists-ukraine-is-rebuilding-heres-how/

"UNHCR has helped people rebuild their war-damaged homes, restore lost documents and access compensation. We ensure that displaced individuals receive accurate, up-to-date information about available services and support, helping them make informed decisions about their future.

As we reach this bleak, bloody milestone, UNHCR will remain on the ground in Ukraine – contributing to the country’s recovery and ready to support people who wish to return once the skies are free from missiles and drones."

https://www.unhcr.org/ua/en/node/505

 

[Simply Southern]

I don't understand the criticism of Zelensky, it was the US's previous administration that controlled the beginning and the process of the war. It was Biden who refused to open negotiations with Russia. The US has always been controlling this situation from behind the scenes, the US always does that.

Why isn't Trump/Americans blaming Biden (or Russia)? What is this business of making everyone else the scapegoat as though the US only arrived on the scene a few weeks ago?

"According to a senior European official, Biden had two strategic options: ramp up support to let Kyiv finish the job or push for peace negotiations. He chose neither."

Too Little Too Late: US Allies Say Biden Strategy Cost Ukraine Chance of Victory

In the month Joe Biden has left in office, his administration is focused on using all the resources it has left to deliver military aid for Ukraine and more sanctio…

financialpost.com

Yes, it was the previous administration and Biden did limit the type of weaponry. I remember Zelensky begging for fighter jets, he finally got them. I remember Canada helped train Ukraine pilots.

<modsnip - off topic>


...
The NATO allies agreed to eliminate the requirements for the Membership Action Plan for Ukraine and to create a path to NATO membership. Biden said the United States and its allies are "doing everything we can" to support Ukraine. The allies are also making commitments to long-term efforts to provide security to Ukraine.

All my opinion

 

[Simply Southern]

Plenty of people are helping, and are willing to help, rebuild Ukraine already. Below are a few examples. There are more.
And the UK has already said it will put peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. PM 'ready' to put troops on ground in Ukraine to protect peace


"To help Ukraine in its recovery, reconstruction and modernisation efforts, the EU will launch a new support mechanism for the years 2024 to 2027. The Ukraine Facility is a dedicated instrument which will allow the EU to provide Ukraine with up to €50 billion in stable and predictable financial support during this period."

Recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine

Find out how the EU is supporting preparations for the country's recovery.

commission.europa.eu

"To this end, the Davos Baukultur Alliance — launched in 2023 at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in collaboration with the government of Switzerland and public and private sector leaders from across the globe — has formed a special focus group on Ukraine to mobilize support and provide expertise in support of reconstruction.

The Davos Baukultur Alliance includes government ministers of culture, urban planning and environment from more than 30 countries, including Anastasia Bondar, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister for Culture and Information Policy, with whom the Alliance collaborates closely to convene key rebuilding experts and supporters to help with reconstruction."

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/02/even-as-the-war-persists-ukraine-is-rebuilding-heres-how/

"UNHCR has helped people rebuild their war-damaged homes, restore lost documents and access compensation. We ensure that displaced individuals receive accurate, up-to-date information about available services and support, helping them make informed decisions about their future.

As we reach this bleak, bloody milestone, UNHCR will remain on the ground in Ukraine – contributing to the country’s recovery and ready to support people who wish to return once the skies are free from missiles and drones."

https://www.unhcr.org/ua/en/node/505

Looks good on the surface, but it's loans. The devil's in the details, so to speak.

Diving into the conditions....up to 50 billion in loans and grants. "The Facility" (name of fund), will offer bonds to fund the money for loans to Ukraine. Funding will be contention on bond sales. They also except private donations, applied to grants.

Moo...

 

[SouthAussie]

Looks good on the surface, but it's loans. The devil's in the details, so to speak.

Diving into the conditions....up to 50 billion in loans and grants. "The Facility" (name of fund), will offer bonds to fund the money for loan Ukraine. Funding will be contention on bond sales. They also except private donations, applied to grants.

Moo...

You said no-one had offered to help with the rebuilding. I gave you a few examples of those who are in fact doing that. And there are more, as well.

Grants are not loans. Please try to acknowledge that there are many who are helping. It is not (and never has been) all up to the US. And the assistance will continue long after the US has exited.

Nobody is saying that the US hasn't been of great assistance in the past.

imo

 

[Dotta]

" 'Until the end of martial law'.​

The Council decided on Zelensky.​

On Tuesday, February 25,
the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted resolution №13041

'On Supporting Democracy in Ukraine in Conditions of Russian Aggression'
which stated that holding elections during martial law is impossible.

The document emphasizes that the parliament will announce presidential elections only when
a 'comprehensive, just and lasting peace'
is ensured on the territory of Ukraine.

In the document,
the Verkhovna Rada stressed
'the need for continuity of power, especially under martial law'.

The Parliament states
that the martial law introduced in Ukraine in connection with the full-scale invasion by Russia
makes it impossible to hold elections in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine.

At the same time,
the Ukrainian people are unanimous that elections should be held after the end of the war',
the document reads.

It was also emphasized that Zelensky
'should perform his duties until the newly elected President of Ukraine takes office,
in accordance with Part One of Article 108 of the Constitution of Ukraine'.

Zelensky's mandate is not in question​

'The Verkhovna Rada once again recalls
that the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky
was elected in free, transparent and democratic elections.

His mandate is not questioned by either the Ukrainian people or the parliament',
the resolution stated."

"Do końca stanu wojennego". Rada zdecydowała ws. Zełenskiego

Rada Najwyższa Ukrainy za drugim podejściem przegłosowała uchwałę "o wspieraniu demokracji w Ukrainie w warunkach agresji Rosji". Oznacza to, że wybory prezydenckie w Ukrainie odbędą się zaraz po zakończeniu...

wiadomosci.wp.pl

 

[Dotta]

"EU also wants raw materials from Ukraine.​

There is an offer for Zelensky.​

The European Union offered Ukraine its own deal on 'critical materials'.

European Commissioner for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy
presented a proposal to Ukrainian officials on Monday in Kyiv
during a visit by the European Commission.

'The added value offered by Europe
is that
we will never demand an agreement
that is not beneficial to both parties'.

The EU wants to cooperate with Ukraine​

- 21 out of 30 critical materials needed by Europe can be supplied by Ukraine
as part of a mutually beneficial partnership."

UE też chce surowców z Ukrainy. Jest oferta dla Zełenskiego

Unia Europejska zaoferowała w poniedziałek Ukrainie własne porozumienie w sprawie "krytycznych materiałów" - donosi Politico. O wspólnym wydobyciu ukraińskich surowców mówi Donald Trump, który naciska...

www.money.pl

 

[Simply Southern]

Always been done? Really? The negotiators for a peace deal with Germany were Winston Churchill, Joseph Stalin and Harry Truman. They negotiated with Germany (the original combatant) in Germany. They sat down with Germany who was designated a place in the corner, not at the table. They started by having four zones of occupation. Those four zones didn't include Germany.

So who are the intermediaries? The USA? That's it? No Ukraine? The country who has borne the brunt of Russia's aggression? The country whose President is saying that Zelensky caused the war and is a dictator? And all his 'negotiating' teams are basically singing from the same songbook - that Ukraine isn't able to list their wants while Russia gets to finagle some deal with Trump. What two sides? There is no two sides only a group of negotiators who are parroting Trump's threats. What's wrong with that picture?

Truman ended the war with the atomic bomb.

It wasn't a peace deal, Germany had surrended. They were negotiating borders and other terms with Germany. Japan was still active in the war. In the last meeting, Turman announce the US had just dropped a nuclear warhead in Japan. The act ended the war.

Milestones in the History of U.S. Foreign Relations - Office of the Historian

history.state.gov 3.0 shell

history.state.gov

The Potsdam Conference, 1945
The Big Three—Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill (replaced on July 26 by Prime Minister Clement Attlee), and U.S. President Harry Truman—met in Potsdam, Germany, from July 17 to August 2, 1945, to negotiate terms for the end of World War II. After the Yalta Conference of February 1945, Stalin, Churchill, and U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt had agreed to meet following the surrender of Germany to determine the postwar borders in Europe. Germany surrendered on May 8, 1945, and the Allied leaders agreed to meet over the summer at Potsdam to continue the discussions that had begun at Yalta. Although the Allies remained committed to fighting a joint war in the Pacific, the lack of a common enemy in Europe led to difficulties reaching consensus concerning postwar reconstruction on the European continent
...
The Potsdam Conference is perhaps best known for President Truman’s July 24, 1945 conversation with Stalin, during which time the President informed the Soviet leader that the United States had successfully detonated the first atomic bomb on July 16, 1945. Historians have often interpreted Truman’s somewhat firm stance during negotiations to the U.S. negotiating team’s belief that U.S. nuclear capability would enhance its bargaining power. Stalin, however, was already well-informed about the U.S. nuclear program thanks to the Soviet intelligence network; so he also held firm in his positions. This situation made negotiations challenging. The leaders of the United States, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union, who, despite their differences, had remained allies throughout the war, never met again collectively to discuss cooperation in postwar reconstruction.