Interesting conversation with an expert - deputy director of the East European Studies
"Finally, Putin will remind us about the 'last' condition?
'It cannot be allowed'
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'I still consider the scenario below as the base one -
the war will not end in 2025.
The Russian conditions will be rejected by Ukraine.
The game is currently about who Donald Trump will blame for the failure of the talks.
I assume it will be Ukraine,
which will be left with only European support'.
Is there no chance of ending the war in Ukraine in 2025?
'It is impossible to end the war at this stage,
nor can it be done in the entire year 2025.
I believe that Russia's goal is to destroy Ukraine,
and Ukraine's goal is not to be destroyed.
This means that there is no room for compromise here.
And in addition,
neither side is yet exhausted enough to have to make very far-reaching concessions.
Even Donald Trump's determination to end the war will not make Kiev and Moscow reach an understanding.
What we are seeing now is an attempt to shift responsibility for the failure of talks on negotiations'.
And will Europe be able to come to an agreement to financially and productively support Ukraine? Enough to cope on the front without help from the US?
'I would probably ask the question out loud:
will Europe be able to - contrary to the US - support Ukraine in the long term?
I think that this support will be subject to American pressure when it comes to the implementation of arms orders in the US.
This is one of the variants and one of the scenarios.
I do not judge whether this will actually happen.
In such a scenario,
there will also be a dispute over the lifting of sanctions on Russia'.
However, if there are so-called peace talks and negotiations, will Ukraine have to give up some territories?
'Ukraine's territorial losses may take many forms.
Ukrainians may accept them with tacit acceptance or with a formal territorial cession to Russia.
They may be limited to the front line,
or they may mean, for example,
the necessity of handing over Kherson and Zaporozhye to Russia.
The latter would be humiliating and a source of destabilization'.
You claim that the war will not end this year. In an optimistic scenario,
will it be possible to at least freeze the conflict and declare a ceasefire?
'There will be no freeze on the front either'.
Why?
'Of course,
this cannot be ruled out,
but after the condition that the Russians are demanding,
to make the peace talks dependent on holding elections in Ukraine,
there is currently no chance of this.
This is a trap set by Putin.
This is his intention to lead Ukraine on the path of vassalization.
If it so happened that the elections were held,
Russia would gain an instrument of influence on Kiev's internal policy.
The demand that the peace negotiations be preceded by presidential elections is an intrigue intended to polarize and legalize interference in Ukrainian internal affairs at a key moment'.
And what would the intrigue be?
'Putin needs presidential elections in Ukraine before the peace agreement,
not to immediately push through his candidate,
but to refuse to recognize them.
He will argue that Ukraine does not meet the demands of the political system, related to the functioning of the media, parties, the Russian language.
This is an obvious game by Putin,
and Trump is starting to play it.
With such openness on the part of the US, Russia has already demanded the unfreezing of assets and the lifting of sanctions from the very beginning.
And when,
after prolonged negotiations,
impatient Trump gives up on the fate of Ukraine,
then Putin will remind us of the 'last' condition -
the withdrawal of NATO from the eastern flank.
And this cannot be allowed to happen'."
Much more in the link
- Poniższy scenariusz nadal traktuję jako bazowy - wojna nie zakończy się w 2025 roku. Warunki rosyjskie zostaną odrzuc…
wiadomosci.wp.pl