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- Ukrainian forces continued to make gains around Lyman and Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours
- Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov has replaced Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlev as commander of the Western Military District (WMD); Putin has cycled through two commanders of the “western grouping of forces" in two weeks
- Russian officials released Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) director Ihor Murashov and will likely use his physical removal to assert further control over the nuclear power plant
- Ukrainian forces made advances on the Oskil River-Kreminna line towards the Luhansk oblast border
- Ukrainian forces additionally made gains near the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border west of Svatove
- Russian troops struck Ukrainian positions in Yampolivka, confirming Ukrainian troops control territory about 15km northeast of Lyman and within 10km west of the Luhansk Oblast border
- Ukrainian troops took control of Terny and Torske
- Ukrainian troops have crossed the Luhansk Oblast border in an unspecified area and gained a foothold somewhere in the direction of Lysychansk
- Russian sources are increasingly concerned that Ukrainian troops will continue pushing eastward to attack vulnerable settlements in Luhansk Oblast
- Ukrainian forces continued to advance in northeastern Kherson Oblast
- Ukrainian forces liberated Myrolyubivka and Arkhanhelske on the Inhulets River south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border
- Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian defenses in the direction of Zolota Balka, and Russian troops withdrew to prepared defensive positions
- Ukrainian forces continued to advance south in the direction of Nova Kakhovka and liberated Mykhailivka, Havrylivka, and Novooleksandrivka along the T0403
- Ukrainian military forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Tavriiske
- Ukrainian forces targeted Russian ammunition depots in Kherson Raion and shot down a Russian Su-25 jet in Beryslav Raion
- Russian occupation officials are increasingly blaming NATO intelligence for exposing weaknesses in Russian defenses in Kherson Oblast and are calling for Russian forces to prepare for urban battles and develop new defensive positions
- Russian forces continued to use Iranian-made drones to attack Ukrainian positions and settlements in southern Ukraine
- Russian forces conducted more than 70 UAV sorties on October 2
- Russian forces conducted kamikaze drone attacks in Mykolaiv Oblast and Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
- Ukrainian forces destroyed five Russian drones involved in attack operations in Mykolaiv Oblast
- Russian federal subjects have already begun to target head of military recruitment centers, with Khabarovsk Krai Governor Mikhail Degtyarev firing the region’s head military enlistment official (commissar) for wrongfully mobilizing several thousand residents
- The Russian mobilization system is suffering from severe bureaucratic challenges and limitations that could undermine Putin’s efforts to generate the number of troops he needs to continue fighting
- The GUR cited one Russian military commissar’s complaints about the challenges he and his colleagues are encountering in trying to administer draft notices to men who are hiding in their apartments; the commissar noted he could only deliver 16 of the required 170 mobilization notices on September 28
- Former Russian SMD Deputy Commander Andrey Gurulev stated on a state-media broadcast that Russian forces are unlikely to generate 300,000 combat-ready reservists, which he claimed is why Russian military recruitment centers are expanding their criteria
- Ukrainian-intercepted calls between Russian servicemen and loved ones show a growing distrust in the correct execution of the mobilization processes
- 11th grade Russian schoolgirl set a military recruitment center on fire in Kazan in opposition to partial mobilization and war in Ukraine
- an unidentified suspect tried to commit arson at a military recruitment center in Krasnoyarsk Krai
- mobilized men in Alabino, Moscow Oblast prevented mobilization officials from taking their personal belongings, resulting in a brawl
- there are also reported cases of deaths among newly mobilized men, with some men committing suicide
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops made significant breakthroughs in northern Kherson Oblast between October 2 and 3.
