Russian air-defense system downed Azerbaijan plane, sources say

[Fabled Automatic]

BAKU, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Russian air defences downed an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation into the disaster told Reuters on Thursday.
Flight J2-8243 crashed on Wednesday in a ball of fire near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after diverting from an area of southern Russia where Moscow has repeatedly used air defence systems against Ukrainian drone strikes.

Russian air-defense system downed Azerbaijan plane, sources say

 

[Fabled Automatic]

Downed Azerbaijan airliner riddled with shrapnel holes, troubling images appear to show

 

[tezi]

Those holes don't look like a bird strike to me!

JMO, IMO, and all other disclaimers.

 

[PrairieWind]

Those holes appear to be blown from the inside out, not outside in.

 

[Cryptic]

Those holes appear to be blown from the inside out, not outside in.

Good point.

They might represent shrapnel that passed through the plane by entering on one side, then passing out the other side. If you look carefully, some strikes seem to be bulged out, where the shrapnel was not strong enough cause another exit hole, but was strong enough to create a bulge- and knock the paint off of that area.

The fact that the Ukrainians have given the Russians a series of unpleasant surprises featuring long range drones coming from unexpected directions could strengthen the possibility of nervous Russian defenders far behind the front lines.

 

[jjenny]

Those holes appear to be blown from the inside out, not outside in.

I heard that some oxygen cylinder might have blown up from inside the plane?

 

[DS2021]

Azerbaijani and U.S. officials suggest plane that crashed may have been hit by weapons fire

U.S. and Azerbaijani officials have said weapons fire may have brought down an Azerbaijani airliner that crashed on Wednesday, killing 38 people.

apnews.com

Russian air defense systems may have brought down an Azerbaijani airliner this week, a U.S. official said Friday after an Azerbaijani minister also suggested the plane was hit by a weapon, citing expert analysis and survivor accounts.

Friday's assessments by Rashan Nabiyev and White House national security spokesman John Kirby echoed those made by outside aviation experts who blamed the crash on Russian air defense systems responding to a Ukrainian attack. These statements raised pressure on Russia, where officials said a drone attack was underway in the region where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was heading for a landing. They did not address statements blaming air defenses.

Kirby told reporters on Friday that the U.S. "have seen some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems," but refused to elaborate, citing an ongoing investigation.

 

[meanmaryjean]

Those pilots are heroes. Keeping it out of the water (thus preserving evidence) saved lives. Putin sending immediate 'thoughts and prayers' was an immediate tell that Russia was involved. IMHO

 

[Charlot123]

The pilots are heroes. Not only did they save 29 lives, they didn't crash in Aktau airport itself and avoided the houses surrounding it (there are many, per commentaries of people living nearby.)

Not proven, but the Kazakh blogger who took the first photos of the plane after the crash and immediately posted it was detained for ten days and the video confiscated. But by that time, it was everywhere.

The situation is going to be complex either way. Tons and tons of conflicting factors.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/passenger-crashed-plane-says-there-was-least-one-loud-bang-before-it-went-down-2024-12-27/

 

[Charlot123]

I heard that some oxygen cylinder might have blown up from inside the plane?

The flight attendant (two out of three survived) denies it.

 

[CriLondon]

The last portion of the flight (picked up on flightradar24) seems very consistent with control surfaces damage (elevators malfunction) , as it seems to lose (and regain) altitude in a very uncontrolled way . It also shows altitude to be 0 at some point , which would be interesting to know from witnesses on board (at least to validate or not this trace ) .
Cabin would have likely been depressurised which would cause pilots to have to descend quickly (which is very dangerous when you have very little elevators control) .

 

[Herat]

Putin "apologizes" without accepting fault

Putin sorry over Azerbaijan Airlines crash but does not accept blame

Russia's leader apologises over the downing of an Azerbaijani plane in Russian airspace - without directly taking blame.

www.bbc.com

It is astonishing that a regular commercial airline was allowed to post a regular flight plan and begin a flight into an airport that was on alert for drone attacks.

It really has to be addressed as to why the Grozny airspace was not announced as closed, even if the flight has departed. It could have still returned to Baku or even diverted elsewhere to a safe place.

 

[mungos]

don't jump to conclusions. on november 15, 2022, a russian missile struck polish territory, killing 2 people...but in the end it was proven that it was a ukrainian missile, so everything suddenly fell silent.

change the title it's not right if it isn't proven. just like it's not okay to stay quiet if it's proven that the other side did the ...

 

[mungos]

Good point.

They might represent shrapnel that passed through the plane by entering on one side, then passing out the other side. If you look carefully, some strikes seem to be bulged out, where the shrapnel was not strong enough cause another exit hole, but was strong enough to create a bulge- and knock the paint off of that area.

The fact that the Ukrainians have given the Russians a series of unpleasant surprises featuring long range drones coming from unexpected directions could strengthen the possibility of nervous Russian defenders far behind the front lines.

could a terrorist bomb have done something like this?

 

[tezi]

I haven't read the article yet. But, an interesting turn of events, IMO. Link

 

[Charlot123]

Each situation like this is eye-opening. I never knew about this factor, but it is important to know. Not in the context of this catastrophe, but in general.

I was asking myself, why fly to Grozny from Baku? As opposed to driving?

Answer: Azerbaijan is keeping borders with its neighboring countries closed since COVID.

Closed borders in Azerbaijan: Security measure or a violation of human rights?

The authorities changed their narrative around closed borders for the first time following a deadly terrorist attack in Moscow in March 2024.

globalvoices.org

 

[GRT]

don't jump to conclusions. on november 15, 2022, a russian missile struck polish territory, killing 2 people...but in the end it was proven that it was a ukrainian missile, so everything suddenly fell silent.

change the title it's not right if it isn't proven. just like it's not okay to stay quiet if it's proven that the other side did the ...

Yes, always be aware of the possibility of propaganda.

 

[kuromiiiilove]

Russia to Deploy Mobile Anti-Aircraft Gun Units to Counter Ukrainian Drones

The Russian military is forming mobile anti-aircraft gun units to protect ground troops from drone attacks.

thedefensepost.com

In related news… (IMO it’s related at least)