Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #3

[Neet_Mc]

IF my theory is correct, IMO person(s) requesting the illegal work DID intend it to be hush-hush, but things went awry.
(Hell hath no fury like a criminal scorned.)

If a Melbourne "car-rebirther's" usual cash repairer had been closed down (for example), I don't think it would be too much of a stretch for them to consider what services may be available in Ballarat. Ballarat's just down the road from Melbourne - the unofficial capital of organised crime in Australia. Only 115 ks away - that's not very far at all by Australian standards. (It could conceivably take as long to drive from one end of Melbourne to the other as it would to take the freeway to Ballarat.)

The humiliation of a knockback IMO would be difficult for the "offerer" to accept (along with the potential for the Murphy's to mention it to police.) Maybe plain old revenge wasn't nearly as appealing as the possibility of making $$$ from extortion as well, if vengeful action were required (without considering the publicity which such an act would attract.)
MOO

Having some idea of how vehicles suspected of being involved in criminal activity (theft, rollback, rebirthing etc) are dealt with when detected at licensed automotive facilities (via relative that works for a very large melbourne metro dealership and service centre chain), this is done ‘quietly’ so as to not alert individuals. There is a formal process that a company must follow. I’ve had conversations with my relative about how police swooped in when customers have been there to collect a vehicle, but also how ‘hot’ cars have had patsies come in to drop off/pick up to distance themselves for this reason. As an authorised insurance repairer, SM’s repair Centre would be aware of these processes. Definitely a likely situation to have arisen, although I’m not 100% I’m buying that it then extends to someone going after SM while she is running. I don’t think it’s the most obvious/likely possibly scenario unless ofcourse there had been some surveillance of them as part of a said revenge.

 

[Dotta]

IF my theory is correct, IMO person(s) requesting the illegal work DID intend it to be hush-hush, but things went awry.
(Hell hath no fury like a criminal scorned.)

If a Melbourne "car-rebirther's" usual cash repairer had been closed down (for example), I don't think it would be too much of a stretch for them to consider what services may be available in Ballarat. Ballarat's just down the road from Melbourne - the unofficial capital of organised crime in Australia. Only 115 ks away - that's not very far at all by Australian standards. (It could conceivably take as long to drive from one end of Melbourne to the other as it would to take the freeway to Ballarat.)

The humiliation of a knockback IMO would be difficult for the "offerer" to accept (along with the potential for the Murphy's to mention it to police.) Maybe plain old revenge wasn't nearly as appealing as the possibility of making $$$ from extortion as well, if vengeful action were required (without considering the publicity which such an act would attract.)
MOO

IMO
If it is not random
(my pet theory),
then it is personal,
and not business related.

Terrifying anger/rage, etc.
is the cause of this crime IMO.

Business is just business.
But this case screams violent, destructive, obsessive emotions.

JMO

 

[Cedars]

superintendent hatt said
At this stage he is not (a suspect). Everyone in relation to Samantha is a person of interest. In our investigation we are speaking to everyone that was in her life.'

I have been following some podcasts by criminal profilers, who have revealed that a major component of in-depth criminal investigations these days (not so much in the past, or in fictional crime stories), is getting a very thorough profile of the victim.

When police don't have much physical evidence, they will exhaustively investigate the victim themselves - looking for anything in the victim's life that could be a clue to why they are missing.

Many have speculated: maybe she was having an affair, maybe she had mental health problems, maybe there were troubles in the marriage...

Police will not just sit around and wonder/speculate about those things. They will question, over and over again, people who knew her - not because they are suspicious of those people, but to get a complete picture of SM, who she was as a person, her past and her current life. It will include delving into her finances, her work, her text messages, the apps she used, how she would probably react to certain situations - absolutely everything they can find evidence about- and the longer the case is unresolved, the better they will know her.

So POI does not necessarily equal suspect, it means people who can supply them with information about her.

Also, of course the husband is the first person they suspect. That is investigation 101 if there's no other evidence. So one major early line of inquiry is to investigate whether there's anything suspicious there. Again, they don't waste time speculating, they look for evidence - alibi, large sums of money, etc. That would have all been done long ago. They would not just be starting that now.

Also, 'search warrants' can be for phone and other data, plus CCTV footage. It doesn't necessarily mean going into properties, though perhaps they needed SW to, for eg, search the golf course.

JMO

 

[Hestia's Fire]

IMO
If it is not random
(my pet theory),
then it is personal,
and not business related.

Terrifying anger/rage, etc.
is the cause of this crime IMO.

Business is just business.
But this case screams violent, destructive, obsessive emotions.

JMO

I agree with you. If it were business-related, why not target Mick as well? Why just Sam? Or why not target the children and make both of them suffer? It doesn't make sense that someone would stalk her into the forest and kill her because they were angry about something business-related.

 

[Moonchild90]

Aussie folks, are we expecting any presser today?

 

[SouthAussie]

Erin hasn't run in the forest near her home in Ballarat since Samantha Murphy disappeared from the area on February 4.
.... she said, since Ms Murphy disappeared, she and her friends had been avoiding the area.

City of Ballarat councillor and avid runner Samantha McIntosh said ..... Ms Murphy's disappearance meant she no longer felt safe heading out for a run on her own, and many of her friends felt the same way.

On the other side of the state, in the coastal town of Inverloch, Michelle Harris said she often felt unsafe running in the early morning.

In June last year, serial rapist Joel Russo was jailed for 20 years after attacking a woman who was jogging along Merri Creek in Melbourne's inner north on the evening of December 3, 2019.

Eighteen months earlier, in June 2018, the nation was horrified by the rape and murder of aspiring Melbourne comedian Eurydice Dixon, as she walked through a park on her way home from a night-time gig in the city.

The head coach and founder of Run Like a Girl Australia, Danielle Bryan, said ..... one of her group's members was punched by a stranger when running alone.

Samantha Murphy's disappearance goes to the heart of women's fears about running alone

Women in the missing Ballarat mother's hometown are either running in groups or not at all, and they're not alone in their fears — 90 per cent of women in a national running group say they joined for safety reasons.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SouthAussie]

Aussie folks, are we expecting any presser today?

Not that we are aware of. The big event today is the search by the Ground Crew volunteers.
Wishing them all the best of luck.

 

[Dotta]

Erin hasn't run in the forest near her home in Ballarat since Samantha Murphy disappeared from the area on February 4.
.... she said, since Ms Murphy disappeared, she and her friends had been avoiding the area.

City of Ballarat councillor and avid runner Samantha McIntosh said ..... Ms Murphy's disappearance meant she no longer felt safe heading out for a run on her own, and many of her friends felt the same way.

On the other side of the state, in the coastal town of Inverloch, Michelle Harris said she often felt unsafe running in the early morning.

In June last year, serial rapist Joel Russo was jailed for 20 years after attacking a woman who was jogging along Merri Creek in Melbourne's inner north on the evening of December 3, 2019.

Eighteen months earlier, in June 2018, the nation was horrified by the rape and murder of aspiring Melbourne comedian Eurydice Dixon, as she walked through a park on her way home from a night-time gig in the city.

The head coach and founder of Run Like a Girl Australia, Danielle Bryan, said ..... one of her group's members was punched by a stranger when running alone.

Samantha Murphy's disappearance goes to the heart of women's fears about running alone

Women in the missing Ballarat mother's hometown are either running in groups or not at all, and they're not alone in their fears — 90 per cent of women in a national running group say they joined for safety reasons.

www.abc.net.au

There are many victims here.

Not only the most obvious ones, like Samantha and her family and friends.

But the local community as well.
Homes, parks and nature trails don't feel safe any more.

And neighbourhood doesn't mean security as it should.

Please, let the searches find vital evidence.
There must be something in the bush that Samantha left behind.
Or the perp/s.

JMO

 

[southgoldengirl]

Aussie folks, are we expecting any presser today?

I'm not expecting a presser today. I think the police made their big move yesterday and will sit back and watch the suspect/s squirm and hopefully make a mistake which leads to more evidence.
I believe they have a fair idea who is involved and it wouldn't surprise me if phones, businesses and residences have already been bugged and surveilled ala Greg Lynne style.

 

[Toowong(s)]

Hi all,

Question for the experienced sleuthers - in the event this is a crime by a known criminal in the forest, stolen car struck SM then a cover up, or SM disturbed a drug deal and was silenced.

If that is what happened and the police have an obvious suspect, a known violent crim say, but the evidence is not very strong to secure a conviction (particularly without a body or weapon) it might just be purely circumstantial evidence eg the known crims phone or car or both was in the area, maybe even a person shaped dent on the car, but nothing else specific linking the known crim to SMs disappearance.

If that is the situation how important would it be for the conviction of the known crim for the police and courts to uncategorically 100% rule out any other persons of interest amongst SM friends or family. Prosecution needs to prove guilt beyond doubt, and if any close family members and/or friends had been searching in the same forest at or around same time, looking for SM, phone pinging in all the same locations, which I expect some did before reporting SM missing, then it puts the innocent person right in the frame at the scene of the crime at similar time, making it very difficult maybe impossible for a conviction of the known crim as it would be an easy way for a defence barrister to put doubt in the minds of a jury.

Long winded question, hope it makes sense.

 

[Dotta]

Hi all,

Question for the experienced sleuthers - in the event this is a crime by a known criminal in the forest, stolen car struck SM then a cover up, or SM disturbed a drug deal and was silenced.

If that is what happened and the police have an obvious suspect, a known violent crim say, but the evidence is not very strong to secure a conviction (particularly without a body or weapon) it might just be purely circumstantial evidence eg the known crims phone or car or both was in the area, maybe even a person shaped dent on the car, but nothing else specific linking the known crim to SMs disappearance.

If that is the situation how important would it be for the conviction of the known crim for the police and courts to uncategorically 100% rule out any other persons of interest amongst SM friends or family. Prosecution needs to prove guilt beyond doubt, and if any close family members and/or friends had been searching in the same forest at or around same time, looking for SM, phone pinging in all the same locations, which I expect some did before reporting SM missing, then it puts the innocent person right in the frame at the scene of the crime at similar time, making it very difficult maybe impossible for a conviction of the known crim as it would be an easy way for a defence barrister to put doubt in the minds of a jury.

Long winded question, hope it makes sense.

But there must be some evidence at the crime scene to link to the actual perp.

It is there waiting to be found!!!
There are not criminal masterminds in the world.

Or are there???

 

[inkpink]

There will probably be some undercover's in the big search today.

It's an opportunity not to be wasted!

 

[SouthAussie]

Hi all,

Question for the experienced sleuthers - in the event this is a crime by a known criminal in the forest, stolen car struck SM then a cover up, or SM disturbed a drug deal and was silenced.

If that is what happened and the police have an obvious suspect, a known violent crim say, but the evidence is not very strong to secure a conviction (particularly without a body or weapon) it might just be purely circumstantial evidence eg the known crims phone or car or both was in the area, maybe even a person shaped dent on the car, but nothing else specific linking the known crim to SMs disappearance.

If that is the situation how important would it be for the conviction of the known crim for the police and courts to uncategorically 100% rule out any other persons of interest amongst SM friends or family. Prosecution needs to prove guilt beyond doubt, and if any close family members and/or friends had been searching in the same forest at or around same time, looking for SM, phone pinging in all the same locations, which I expect some did before reporting SM missing, then it puts the innocent person right in the frame at the scene of the crime at similar time, making it very difficult maybe impossible for a conviction of the known crim as it would be an easy way for a defence barrister to put doubt in the minds of a jury.

Long winded question, hope it makes sense.

They have to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

It can't be a most-likely or probably. It has to be a definite.

They would need to rule out other scenarios, because we can bet any defence lawyer will present other scenarios to create reasonable doubt. And with other scenarios possible, the DPP likely wouldn't proceed with prosecution any way.

Good, firm, admissible evidence can rule out other scenarios.

imo

 

[nao]

Moo...can someone define .. illegal repairs that a body shop would do? I took my auto for body shop repairs recently. But they would not repair it because it's an older vehicle and the insurance claim meant they would make no profit off the repair. So I will look for another body shop when the rainy season is over. I don't want to stand in the rain at bus stop while it is fixed....

 

[brjakj]

But there must be some evidence at the crime scene to link to the actual perp.

It is there waiting to be found!!!
There are not criminal masterminds in the world.

Or are there???

I personally think that if there was evidence, it has now been trampled by thousands of inexperienced searchers in the days following her disappearance.

The police really botched this case by not coordinating search efforts and registering volunteers.

IMO

 

[Toowong(s)]

They have to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

It can't be a most-likely or probably. It has to be a definite.

They would need to rule out other scenarios, because we can bet any defence lawyer will present other scenarios to create reasonable doubt. And with other scenarios possible, the DPP likely wouldn't proceed with prosecution any way.

Good evidence can rule out other scenarios.

imo

Yes this is what I’m thinking it makes the job of convicting the known perp much more difficult not only do the police need more evidence against the perp, its also hard to rule out other plausible scenarios as there would be records of family in the forest at the same time searching for their missing loved one.


I’m trying to think why police would say this, when they also seem to be saying fairly clearly that they are investigating known crims :

Superintendent Hatt said questions over the movements of those within the family home in the period Ms Murphy was on that run were difficult to answer.

'There's a lot of movements to and from the house during the day and again we're very, very confident we have tracked all of those movements and we are following up on everything,' he said.

From the DM:

Sam Murphy's husband person of interest along with family and friends

Police are speaking to everyone in Samantha Murphy's life as part of the investigation into her disappearance, including family, friends and work colleagues - and believe it is unlikely that she is alive.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Cedars]

But there must be some evidence at the crime scene to link to the actual perp.

I agree. Prosecutors have to develop a 'theory of the crime', which answers precisely 'who, what, where, when, why'.

They have to have strong evidence that will convince the jury, beyond a reasonable doubt, that is what happened.

If there is anything in that theory that could be just coincidence, or could have multiple other explanations, that creates reasonable doubt. Prosecutors will not approve an arrest, until they are confident they have enough evidence to convict.

When an arrest is made, as the cliche goes - the clock starts ticking. ie there are deadlines prosecution has to abide by in bringing forward a case.

Unless there are threats to others, police will postpone making an arrest until the prosecution says - ok, that evidence seals it.

The announcement that they believe SM never made it out alive, eliminates all the time pressures (except for the decay of evidence). IMO, it makes it possible they won't make an arrest anytime soon.

JMO

 

[Dr Samoht]

I posted this because of the location.

I posted this because of the location.

whilst not privy to the exact location of this vehicle fire , the Woowookarung forest is a popular area for stolen vehicles to be torched.
Boak Rd ( which yesterdays search included ) has been the site of multiple vehicle fires.

 

[Moonchild90]

I posted this because of the location.

whilst not privy to the exact location of this vehicle fire , the Woowookarung forest is a popular area for stolen vehicles to be torched.
Boak Rd ( which yesterdays search included ) has been the site of multiple vehicle fires.

Oh! Thanks for that!
I'm assuming you are local?

 

[Dotta]

So she was at the scene
(Mt Clear) at 8 a.m.

Is it possible that there were no witnesses there?
Not even one?
Is it such a wilderness that people avoid?
No dog walkers?
No other runners?

I think somebody knows something.

JMO