Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #7

[Cagney&Lacey]

Just a further thought, if PS worked on retail/commercial fitout sites which are in the construction phase, the electricians and other trades are usually given keys to access the site for the period of the fitoff. Possibly nobody was due back on site for a week while for example, they awaited plumbing inspection or while the concrete cured. Most trades would have a fitout schedule and be aware of what trades were due on the site on what dates. This would also provide him some 'breathing space' while he came up with a more permanent plan.
All just speculation of course on my behalf.

A simple ABN lookup reveals that PS does actually work on industrial site in his electrical role within the family company. So many opportunities here that really needs a deeper dive by Vicpol

 

[Puggo]

(Snip by me)

Let's say the accused isn't the only perpetrator. What are the other options?
Let's be true detectives.

An accomplice (especially one after-the-fact who is coerced or threatened by the accused?), giving a confession may explain the certainty with which the police presser can say that alleged murder was deliberate and not an accident?

The facts which detract from that, is if an accomplice "flipped": is why Samantha hasn't been located yet? This is working on the assumption more than one person would be required to have hidden Samantha.

To that end, maybe there were at least three persons involved? The person giving a confession having only partial knowledge?

MOO - (and not discounting the possibility a single accused could have acted alone!)

Hoping something changes and Samantha is located asap.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

Yep know all about Sharpe, these cretins think they are soooo smart & women are just disposable to them

Newson put on a fine act, knocking on doors all over the place, reported her missing early, made a find Carly facebook page, offered $10K reward etc..........

It wasn't until after Carly's autopsy that they charged him & his mate - obviously skeletal remains - I wasn't really prepared when, all of a sudden they showed the photos of her insitu in court - no attempt was made to bury her etc

I went to alot of the first trial ( before it was aborted 7 weeks in - we had 1 week to go ) - he made no attempt to bury her etc

To say I'm impressed with Vic police is an understatement

They must have some very solid evidence!

I don't think he is going to win either!

Agree.

 

[Toowong(s)]

<modsnip - quoted post was off topic>

It is true we seem to be going over the same theories for 7 threads. Kudos to whoever had the prankster theory today, that is a new one.

My true detective questions: why haven’t police released the vehicle details, rego, photos and sought info on vehicle sightings? Why haven’t we seen police divers searching water bodies in the area?

IMO the accused had all day Sunday to himself, has taken backroads to some out of the way place, and returned Sunday evening. Smart enough to quickly ditch/destroy SMs devices and therefore smart enough to leave his own devices behind. Potential long range diesel tanks in a 4wd like that, he could have gone over the border into SA and back for all we know. If he stuck to dirt back roads, out of sight and away from CCTV, it makes it very hard for police. I only hope SM was killed quickly and at the start, and not taken away alive for some unthinkable reason.

IMO he acted alone. But it always surprises me how many people “phone a friend” to help with a body, and even more surprised how many friends say yes.

I agree we should take the police statements with a pinch of salt. They had the accused in custody for a day and a half before MSM and the public found out. For all we know police have SMs remains, phone and watch now and are undergoing forensics. They owe us nothing, they need to do whatever it takes to secure a conviction. Eg if the accused eventually relents and reveals the location of the body, it’s a pretty simple trial.

 

[LeahBee]

If you see a post breaking subjudice or TOS please don't quote it!

 

[Cagney&Lacey]

Two miners pinned under rocks, 25 others stuck underground in Ballarat mine collapse

A rescue effort is under way after a Ballarat mine collapse pinned two miners under rocks and forced 25 others to take refuge in an underground safety pod.

www.theage.com.au

Two people are reportedly trapped underground in a Ballarat mine after a collapse.

The Country Fire Authority said they were called to a rescue at Indicator Lane in Mount Clear, just south of Ballarat, about 4.50pm on Wednesday.

This is a working mine and not open to the public so I would think of no relevance to this case

 

[Toowong(s)]

Further to 'asking the right questions'.

When the police stated 'We'll be taking further statements'.

The definition of further is "additional to what already exists or has already taken place, been done, or been accounted for".

What do we think of these additional statements the police are taking?

My gut feel is the accused GF may have played a role in his demise, after cottoning on to the accused alleged guilt over the course of the first week or two, and coming to realise he had no true alibi on the day, and perhaps finding incriminating evidence. Alternatively his parents, or even both IMO. Detailed witness statements would now be needed to unpack all of that.

I also wonder if the accused has bragged to a mate. Or filmed something very incriminating, maybe shared it, or uploaded it to the dark web. Then been dobbed in.

 

[Cagney&Lacey]

Trooper mentioned bins in his example of another case study. I already had it noted as a point of issue. The disposal of clothes, personal belongings including the iPhone and Apple watch (IMEI) (GPS data) may have been disposed on in rubbish bins and trash cans by the alleged perp. I have included the URL for you to search. Perhaps sleuths here may wish to provide a list of suburbs and areas that had their rubbish and trash collected 4th onwards.
I assume the LE have already sectioned off and sifted through the trash trying to locate something in this case.
MOO

Waste Collection Day — City of Ballarat Data Exchange

City of Ballarat open data platform

data.ballarat.vic.gov.au

Skip bins for business and construction sites are not recorded on any regular pick up schedule. Construction sites are ‘as required’ and ordered when needed. Residential Businesses can have different collection dates other than scheduled for the particular suburb

 

[Deleted member 340727]

This is a working mine and not open to the public so I would think of no relevance to this case

Yes you are right that these men are working the mine, but I believe it is relevant to the SM investigation because of the nature of the type of situation that may be the end game for what has occurred. We're not saying this is what has happened but at the same time we have to consider it as a suspected outcome.
MOO

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I've got to say, I've loved joining this sleuthing site.
So many great points and sleuths.

<modsnip - rude>

As only a few others have noted, that might not be the case. Too much evidence to hide in that state of mind, and too little time.

What I haven't heard much of at all, is that multiple people could have been involved. One with a directive to remove SM. Another to facilitate that process, and another or others to execute the plan. Or perhaps the middleman wasn't necessary.

A body is heavy. Even SM. If speed and efficiency is vital to avoiding detection of where the body is, then at least two people would be needed.

Let's say the accused isn't the only perpetrator. What are the other options?
Let's be true detectives.

i feel someone else IS involved. PS is so determined in his silence. I keep wondering, and have stated earlier, that that someone else just may be the weak link in time.

Given that this is what I currently believe... I truly *do* hope the someone is not family.

moo.moo.
there is just so much -too much that we don't know.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

Skip bins for business and construction sites are not recorded on any regular pick up schedule. Construction sites are ‘as required’ and ordered when needed. Residential Businesses can have different collection dates other than scheduled for the particular suburb

Cagney&Lacey are you referring to the rules&regs. of Ballarat and all of the surrounding suburbs? Further if it is what you are saying for Ballarat et al. then that is their setup, but surely the main dumping site would log what goes where on a daily basis which would narrow the extremities, hopefully. MOO

 

[Thinker Matt]

i feel someone else IS involved. PS is so determined in his silence. I keep wondering, and have stated earlier, that that someone else just may be the weak link in time.

Given that this is what I currently believe... I truly *do* hope the someone is not family.

The LE seemed to be rather adamant that he worked alone.

 

[T-dawg420]

The job of finding SM’s body is obviously immense. Otherwise they would have found her by now. Trying to run through possible scenarios is really difficult, esp for us, without any real knowledge of what PS’s actions where in the time leading up to the “event” (whatever that may have been).

There are reports he was out the evening before, and being on a bender, but that could be conjecture, who knows.

The variables are high, was he out late? Was he still awake and hadn’t been asleep? was he inebriated? Did he get up early and go out? Was he stone cold sober?

Add to that did he commit the “event” and dispose of the body immediately? Did he hide the body in the immediate area, and then return to properly dispose of the body when he was more level headed?

Everything is just pure guesswork, and might not have any real conclusion soon, or even at all!

My thinking is this was a planned attack for sexual gratification, an act was committed and SM’s life was extinguished. The perp, whoever it is, had a fantasy for a while, he may have even had a pattern of behaviour that lead him to being alone, in predatory mode, waiting for a victim. Maybe he had backed out before, not having the courage, but on this occasion something was different, perhaps inebriation, perhaps a fight with a loved one, or perhaps his mind just ticked over to the unthinkable, maybe finally, he was in his right time and right place, and poor SM was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I think after the event, she has been hidden, the perp has returned to everyday life, maybe to sleep, maybe to gather thoughts and come up with a plan of disposal. He returns later in the afternoon, makes sure no one’s around, removes her body, and then disposes her in a very hard place to find.

Where that is is anybody’s guess, could be far, could be close. Maybe it’s down a shaft, maybe in a body of water. It could even just be where luck and happenstance have conspired to keep her hidden.

Again, who knows?

The perp, that’s who.

IMO

 

[T-dawg420]

My gut feel is the accused GF may have played a role in his demise, after cottoning on to the accused alleged guilt over the course of the first week or two, and coming to realise he had no true alibi on the day, and perhaps finding incriminating evidence. Alternatively his parents, or even both IMO. Detailed witness statements would now be needed to unpack all of that.

I also wonder if the accused has bragged to a mate. Or filmed something very incriminating, maybe shared it, or uploaded it to the dark web. Then been dobbed in.

I’ve thought about this possible scenario as well.

As in he has given two different alibis to two different people, for example he told his family he was with his girlfriend, and told the girlfriend he was with his family for a portion of time around the event (substitute family and/gf with friends possibly)

Someone has cottoned on to that fact and thought something isn’t right.

It would be a helluva thought to have, and then to act on it. You’d wanna be certain.

Confiding in somebody wouldn’t surprise me, the guilt must be extraordinary to hold onto, unless of course you’re a proper sociopath!

Also filming something again in my mind is a possibility,and showing someone or someone happens to see it somehow, it wouldn’t be the first time.

 

[Cagney&Lacey]

Thank you for your very informative post SEJ. .. and for taking the time to check all this out.

I’ve been wondering if the accused did electrical work in the Mt Clear area, perhaps on the telecom tower or water treatment plant.

From my experience, these trades tend to get an early start, so it could be possible that he has quite often seen SM on her runs.

JMO

It seems the electrical business did data and electrical including commercial sites and are based in Mt Clear. The business itself doesn’t seem to have a large media presence/website/Abr registration history so I would think they would have difficulty getting into the tendering process for the likes of the telecom tower or treatment plant

 

[Deleted member 340727]

Southaussie, from what I can tell the accused had access to two, maybe even three houses and seemed to drift between them IMO:
- house sitting property (Scottsburn)
- parents house (Mt Clear)
- also recall mention in MSM that the accused maintained a “share house” but can’t find the link. This may be referencing the house sitting house, or another 3rd house with some mates?

So I’m thinking the accused could have been gone all day Sunday, and not be missed. Parents would think he’s at the Scottsburn house with GF, while GF would think he’s at Mt Clear with parents. Or crashed at the sharehouse, or a mates house. They’d have a fair idea a Saturday night bender was a possibility so neither household would have missed him all day, assuming he’s sleeping off the bender.

Throwing a third house in the mix, the possible share house, or a mates house even, would further cloud the accused whereabouts for the entire day on Sunday.

So IMO the accused could have travelled far and wide before being missed, maybe even into the evening on Sunday.

It would be fascinating to understand when he eventually resurfaced after the alleged bender. Did he make it to work on Monday, or still coming down from the bender.

The Scotsburn addresses are relative. MOO

 

[Cagney&Lacey]

Cagney&Lacey are you referring to the rules&regs. of Ballarat and all of the surrounding suburbs?

Construction sites require skip bin collections “ when required “ so are not locked into a regular collection cycle. There is no long term contract with the waste company required for the principal contractor. Once the tenancy is handed over to the occupants then that is the point when a regular collection is arranged

 

[nhmemorymaker]

The LE seemed to be rather adamant that he worked alone.

yes, I know that, but I feel that LE is not saying that no one else KNEW about it.

I tried to put myself in his "friends" shoes.... If LE announced that he worked alone, I think they might have "looser lips" talking to each other, to mutual friends.

LE has stated that they had ONLY been on to PS for the past two weeks... I just sense that this had to be a "tip".... not a heavily researched process of deduction and reasoning.

Obviously we will know more down the road.... I'm just leaning towards "others knew" at this moment in time

 

[Thinker Matt]

yes, I know that, but I feel that LE is not saying that no one else KNEW about it.

I tried to put myself in his "friends" shoes.... If LE announced that he worked alone, I think they might have "looser lips" talking to each other, to mutual friends.

LE has stated that they had ONLY been on to PS for the past two weeks... I just sense that this had to be a "tip".... not a heavily researched process of deduction and reasoning.

Obviously we will know more down the road.... I'm just leaning towards "others knew" at this moment in time

Yeah but in your first comment you said you have a feeling someone else is involved, KNOWING and INVOLVED is massively different.

Sure he may have told a friend who ended up outing him, but that doesn't mean his friend is involved.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

The job of finding SM’s body is obviously immense. Otherwise they would have found her by now. Trying to run through possible scenarios is really difficult, esp for us, without any real knowledge of what PS’s actions where in the time leading up to the “event” (whatever that may have been).

There are reports he was out the evening before, and being on a bender, but that could be conjecture, who knows.

The variables are high, was he out late? Was he still awake and hadn’t been asleep? was he inebriated? Did he get up early and go out? Was he stone cold sober?

Add to that did he commit the “event” and dispose of the body immediately? Did he hide the body in the immediate area, and then return to properly dispose of the body when he was more level headed?

Everything is just pure guesswork, and might not have any real conclusion soon, or even at all!

My thinking is this was a planned attack for sexual gratification, an act was committed and SM’s life was extinguished. The perp, whoever it is, had a fantasy for a while, he may have even had a pattern of behaviour that lead him to being alone, in predatory mode, waiting for a victim. Maybe he had backed out before, not having the courage, but on this occasion something was different, perhaps inebriation, perhaps a fight with a loved one, or perhaps his mind just ticked over to the unthinkable, maybe finally, he was in his right time and right place, and poor SM was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I think after the event, she has been hidden, the perp has returned to everyday life, maybe to sleep, maybe to gather thoughts and come up with a plan of disposal. He returns later in the afternoon, makes sure no one’s around, removes her body, and then disposes her in a very hard place to find.

Where that is is anybody’s guess, could be far, could be close. Maybe it’s down a shaft, maybe in a body of water. It could even just be where luck and happenstance have conspired to keep her hidden.

Again, who knows?

The perp, that’s who.

IMO

Some very good points. MOO