Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024

[OptimusLime]

Some similarities to the Ristevski case as well

Agreed

 

[Awakening]

Agreed - looks like she’s finished her run / walk already and is coming home.

I just know with myself, I wouldn’t pick up dog poo before I left home, I’d deal with it when I got back so I can wash my hands. Once I’m geared up for a run or walk that’s what I do. I’m not stopping to pick up dog poop from my own front lawn. But everyone’s different.

 

[Awakening]

Agreed

There was another case Baden Powell? Was Alison the victim?

 

[jjleroche]

Agreed

I haven't followed the Ristevski case closely. I'm aware that the husband was found to be responsible, but that's all I know. Just wondering what the similarities are?

 

[iamshadow21]

There was another case Baden Powell? Was Alison the victim?

Robert Baden-Powell invented the Scouting movement.

You're thinking of Allison Baden-Clay.

 

[Skyboy90]

only difference here is Ristevski was telling lies from the start, we had no footage to go from. We do have footage here to go off, including cars in shot, so police would be able to see comings and goings.

 

[Waverider]

Robert Baden-Powell invented the Scouting movement.

You're thinking of Allison Baden-Clay.

I think her husband Gerard Baden Clay was a descendant of Baden-Powell, which possibly explains the confusion

 

[Waverider]

I just know with myself, I wouldn’t pick up dog poo before I left home, I’d deal with it when I got back so I can wash my hands. Once I’m geared up for a run or walk that’s what I do. I’m not stopping to pick up dog poop from my own front lawn. But everyone’s different.

Doesn’t make sense to me either..

 

[butterstick]

I can't find any details about the photo of her holding the bag?
Was it taken at her home on the same day?

 

[LuluCherry]

I can't find any details about the photo of her holding the bag?
Was it taken at her home on the same day?

Yes, it was taken from footage of their home cctv, before she left for her run. It was used as it shows what she was wearing on the day.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

The wildest theory of all is that middle-aged mum of three Samantha Murphy (pictured as she left home on Sunday) has abandoned her family to embark on a new life in secret

There is nothing to suggest that may be true.

The ten wild theories surrounding Samantha Murphy's disappearance

Armchair detectives and trolls have gone into overdrive as speculation explodes about the beloved mother's fate, with 10 key theories now emerging.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[DK007]

I know,right?! But history tells me that the less the police tell the public, the MORE info they actually have.

In the case of Russell Hill & Carol Clay VPOL kept things very quiet till Greg Lynn‘s arrest. Same with the mushroom women Erin Patterson

 

[Annamarie777]

There are a couple of things that bother me. Well, three, actually.
* The day was unusually hot. Not setting historic records, but one of the hottest this summer, at least where I am.
* Samantha wasn't an experienced runner, or had only recently got back into running.
* She reportedly had low blood pressure.

Those three things together have the potential to be a recipe for disaster. Hot weather causes your blood vessels to dilate. If you have low blood pressure and can't get away from the heat, it can cause fainting. My partner has had low blood pressure her whole life, but it really started to impact her in her late teens. She drinks a large amount of fluids to keep her blood volume up, drinks electrolytes, salt-loads, and on hot summer days (indoors, with aircon and/or fans), she still gets dizzy spells. And she isn't going out running in a bushland area away from people.

I fear that if this is a case that doesn't involve actions by another, that Samantha has become dehydrated, POTS-y, and disoriented. In an urban area, it's dangerous enough, in a bushland area, it can be lethal, very quickly. There are the inherent risks of exposure, but also the dangers of things such as falls from height and venomous creatures such as snakes. Our fauna in Australia have a well earned reputation for being incredibly dangerous. A snake bite from a brown or king brown can be lethal without swift treatment.

MOO

Blood pressure could go down but usually people with low blood pressure are used to it. Their body accommodates. Even if it doesn’t, she must not have had it that bad, as she was able to run before and we’ve had hot weather since October. Even if she did indeed fall somewhere or got very dizzy and low, she likely would recover and get up. And walk to ask for help. Where would she be now? She is known to stick to the normal trails, not going into the bush.

 

[jjleroche]

Sky news article quotes a friend of Samantha’s, saying that Samantha only recently got back into running. I wonder if there was some kind of medical problem?

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/crime/samantha-murphys-iphone-and-whether-she-wore-apple-watch-crucial-to-find-missing-mum-says-retired-homicide-detective-as-longtime-friend-speak-out/news-story/2522a985fa51f503d373c6ba90812373

I recall reading a comment from one of Samantha's friends that Samantha suffered from very low blood pressure. Shall re-post when I find it - still looking. MOO

 

[imstilla.grandma]

I recall reading a comment from one of Samantha's friends that Samantha suffered from very low blood pressure. Shall re-post when I find it - still looking. MOO

Loved ones grow weary of a good outcome as Ms Murphy suffered from extremely low blood pressure, and temperatures on the day she went missing were in the high 30s’.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/new-footage-of-missing-ballarat-mum-steers-search-to-new-suburb-as-concerns-for-the-51yearold-grow/news-story/993522b706666576cf37f3b676eaebb0

 

[jjleroche]

There are a couple of things that bother me. Well, three, actually.
* The day was unusually hot. Not setting historic records, but one of the hottest this summer, at least where I am.
* Samantha wasn't an experienced runner, or had only recently got back into running.
* She reportedly had low blood pressure.

Those three things together have the potential to be a recipe for disaster. Hot weather causes your blood vessels to dilate. If you have low blood pressure and can't get away from the heat, it can cause fainting. My partner has had low blood pressure her whole life, but it really started to impact her in her late teens. She drinks a large amount of fluids to keep her blood volume up, drinks electrolytes, salt-loads, and on hot summer days (indoors, with aircon and/or fans), she still gets dizzy spells. And she isn't going out running in a bushland area away from people.

I fear that if this is a case that doesn't involve actions by another, that Samantha has become dehydrated, POTS-y, and disoriented. In an urban area, it's dangerous enough, in a bushland area, it can be lethal, very quickly. There are the inherent risks of exposure, but also the dangers of things such as falls from height and venomous creatures such as snakes. Our fauna in Australia have a well earned reputation for being incredibly dangerous. A snake bite from a brown or king brown can be lethal without swift treatment.

MOO

Yes, snakebite is a definite possibility IMO. If Samantha had been running, and was bitten, venom would circulate throughout her body very quickly, incapacitating her almost immediately. MOO

 

[Curiousobserver]

That ping on her phone from Buninyong Golf Club is about 8-10 miles from her starting point (not exactly but accurate enough to judge reasonableness). That means her run would be about 16-20 miles if she turned around there or even did a loop on those connecting roads and trails. That is a very long run and I personally, as a long distance runner, doubt that was her plan. It would be interesting to see the time of that Ping relative to the CCTV image of her at her house.

 

[DK007]

Homicide detectives called in to search for missing mum Samantha Murphy breaking news from herald sun behind paywall

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-victoria/acting-inspector-lisa-mcdougall-says-were-being-extremely-thorough-and-methodical/news-story/f7464793d284f2f70f4da05b0f43e3af?amp

 

[SLouTh]

Homicide detectives called in to search for missing mum Samantha Murphy breaking news from herald sun behind paywall

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-victoria/acting-inspector-lisa-mcdougall-says-were-being-extremely-thorough-and-methodical/news-story/f7464793d284f2f70f4da05b0f43e3af?amp

BBM

Better late than never, TBH, I would have assumed they were already working the case, behind the scenes… from Monday onwards …

The timing of this announcement, of homicide detectives now joining the investigation is interesting …


Today the Victorian Police admitted they had mishandled the investigation when they released CCTV footage on Wednesday and identified a jogger in it as Ms Murphy, only to retract that on Thursday afternoon.

Paraphrased from :

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/missing-ballarat-jogger-samantha-murphy-missing-for-five-days/news-story/ed8742d89773d81e5a790604c08b8e0d

Paywalled for some.

IMO

 

[Bats]

Homicide detectives called in to search for missing mum Samantha Murphy breaking news from herald sun behind paywall

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-victoria/acting-inspector-lisa-mcdougall-says-were-being-extremely-thorough-and-methodical/news-story/f7464793d284f2f70f4da05b0f43e3af?amp

That's not great news. I expect the detectives have been looking at Samantha's disappearance for many days. I would also expect that some people's movements have been monitored very closely.
I think its interesting that some CCTV footage was released to the media without a confirmation that it was actually her. CCTV is a precious tool for detectives that wouldn't ordinarily be thrown out to the media without a reason. The CCTV footage, in a literal sense, served no purpose but to vilify to the public that she did actually set out for a run. But it wasn't actually her...
I am assuming here that the footage wasn't sent to the media and they've just run with it.

*edit. ..i think i posted the same time as SLouTh