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  • #1,321
I think you are misreading my posts. I really don't know who the last known person(s) was that had contact with ED. Failing a mountain accident, I believe the Soham model may apply to this scenario. I have a feeling that LE may have been wrong footed by a person(s) and as in the Soham case, greater LE scrutiny of the last known contact(s) could hold the key to unlocking this mystery.

What is the "Soham model?" Familiar with Ockham's Razor, the math equation, but not Soham. Is that a new thing and if so what is the origin?

"Occam’s razor, also spelled Ockham’s razor, also called law of economy or law of parsimony, principle stated by the Scholastic philosopher William of Ockham (1285–1347/49) that pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate, “plurality should not be posited without necessity.” The principle gives precedence to simplicity: of two competing theories, the simpler explanation of an entity is to be preferred. The principle is also expressed as “Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity.”​

Occam’s razor | Origin, Examples, & Facts
 
  • #1,322
I just don't see how you can abduct someone off a mountain.

Either she walked off, or she went off the track.

My 02c

Read Meredith Emerson. She was hiking in the mountains with her well trained dog when she was approached by a man who accompanied her down the trail where she was abducted, transported, held captive, murdered and beheaded.
 
  • #1,323
Except the police have traced the guy from 19th....

But it could have been someone else she had disclosed her plans to as I mentioned above.

Have investigator's located the mystery photographer from Nov 19?

If so, is there a link? The last information that was published is that police wanted to locate him.
 
  • #1,324
Have investigator's located the mystery photographer from Nov 19?

If so, is there a link? The last information that was published is that police wanted to locate him.
The statement released yesterday from LBT said he has been traced
 
  • #1,325
Something I’ve been considering is this. It is quite a coincidence that Esther has gone missing shortly after the BBC article. Her personal FB profile as well as the Esther and Dan FB profile provides a lot of information about her personality and her whereabouts. She is clearly a friendly, trusting, lovely lady who isn’t afraid to hitch rides. Has she potentially been targeted by a stalker to whom she unwittingly disclosed her planned route? Was she even followed up the mountain - from a distance?

My heart goes out to Dan and to Esther’s family. The torture of not knowing must be unbearable.

I agree and do find it a coincidence that the article on the BBC being made available was so close to her disappearance. Too much of a coincidence really. I dont know the exact date when the BBC article appeared but could she have disappeared 'before' then and then the BBC article was triggered deliberately by an associate.

If foul play is involved (and I believe it is) then I would imagine that she wasn't abducted from the mountain side at all. That she walked down with a familiar face - someone she already knew or had met - and the foul play happened later. Maybe an argument or something occurred. So far we have heard everyone else's reports (witnesses, family, friends etc) but if the perpetrator has spoken then he / she is hardly likely to give a true reflection - so I take little notice of what is being said. If Esther were here to give her account, it may be quite different. I only believe the CCTV, the Ballarin sighting and the Vigo sighting. How about if she had gone missing before that BBC article was triggered - but we are mean to think she didn't through misleading social media postings? Anyone could have used her phone to mislead, and if foul play is involved, then it is likely they did!
 
  • #1,326
I agree and do find it a coincidence that the article on the BBC being made available was so close to her disappearance. Too much of a coincidence really. I dont know the exact date when the BBC article appeared but could she have disappeared 'before' then and then the BBC article was triggered deliberately by an associate.

If foul play is involved (and I believe it is) then I would imagine that she wasn't abducted from the mountain side at all. That she walked down with a familiar face - someone she already knew or had met - and the foul play happened later. Maybe an argument or something occurred. So far we have heard everyone else's reports (witnesses, family, friends etc) but if the perpetrator has spoken then he / she is hardly likely to give a true reflection - so I take little notice of what is being said. If Esther were here to give her account, it may be quite different. I only believe the CCTV, the Ballarin sighting and the Vigo sighting. How about if she had gone missing before that BBC article was triggered - but we are mean to think she didn't through misleading social media postings? Anyone could have used her phone to mislead, and if foul play is involved, then it is likely they did!
The article was released in the morning, she spoke to Vigo at around 3.00pm
 
  • #1,327
I hate to rain on anyone's parade, but BBC | UK | England | Regions | Tyne & Wear | isn't that important in the rest of the world.

Why would people on either side of the Pyrenees be following the news from Tyne & Wear? (Tyne and Where?) Or a blog in English by one Esther and one Dan?

IMO this is one coincidence that is a coincidence.
 
  • #1,328
I hate to rain on anyone's parade, but BBC | UK | England | Regions | Tyne & Wear | isn't that important in the rest of the world.

Why would people on either side of the Pyrenees be following the news from Tyne & Wear? (Tyne and Where?) Or a blog in English by one Esther and one Dan?

IMO this is one coincidence that is a coincidence.

Not important? How very dare you :D

(and it’s wear like weir or we’re)

Good point though, it would be of mild interest perhaps to people in the Durham area where they’re from and other mountain hikers. It’s not the most exciting of world travelling blogs - mountain after mountain after mountain. Quite “niche”. Still, I expect they started it to keep in touch with friends, family and like minded bloggers, rather than going for sponsorship and likes.
 
  • #1,329
I hate to rain on anyone's parade, but BBC | UK | England | Regions | Tyne & Wear | isn't that important in the rest of the world.

Why would people on either side of the Pyrenees be following the news from Tyne & Wear? (Tyne and Where?) Or a blog in English by one Esther and one Dan?

IMO this is one coincidence that is a coincidence.
I agree ZaZara.

The only way it would not be a coincidence if is it were some kind of publicity "stunt" and I don't believe that to be the case at all.

JMO
 
  • #1,330
This quote from Dan makes me wonder even more if she has had an accident but not yet been found. It would take months to search every square inch of that place, she could have fallen in an awkward spot and be hidden. I know he’s trying to stress that they think it’s unlikely she has had an accident, but this statement has the opposite affect on me. 90mins - 2 hours to the nearest road is pretty far out imo.

'There seems to be a perception that because it's the mountains, because it's nearly winter and because Esther was alone, that what she was doing was reckless and 'of course' she has had an accident.
The situation on the ground is that the conditions were perfect, Esther had all the equipment to look after herself, and from the peak we last spoke on, she could be at a road in either France or Spain within 90 minutes – 2 hours. She was not lost in the Amazon rainforest. These are trails that families walk in summer.’

ETA : The ground was rocky and unstable as we can see from the photos the hiker took of Esther. She said herself that the weather wasn’t ideal and made her think about turning back. All it would take is a trip over a rock sticking up in the ground to trip in the wrong place and be injured. I don’t think conditions were perfect atall. MOO
 
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  • #1,331
I get why everyone is pointing out no one French or Spainish would be interested in the article, unless it was something they followed. However I randomly read the article that morning as it was the top story in “Must See”on the BBC main news page on mobile devices (not hidden in a subsection), I doubt I am the only person to have read it, in fact I would go so far as to say many more people will have read the article that morning than you believe. I skim through the page daily and only tend to read the top story in each section.
 
  • #1,332
Yes I guess it is just a coincidence then.. I think they were trying to sell the doggy story books and this would have helped publicise them and their adventures.

Reading the article in the Times today I did note that Esther's mum has said that Esther is facing difficult decisions regarding the potential impact of Brexit and how it would affect their lifestyle of 'roaming'.
It was obviously something that Esther had talked about and she was probably worried and knew they might have to perhaps settle somewhere. I'm not trying to infer that this has anything to do with her disappearance - just I hadn't even considered that aspect. It also shows that Esther is in contact with her family and does talk about current concerns.

I also read yesterday, where I forget now, that on this recent 'trip', Esther kept extending her time away by a few days.
 
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  • #1,333
Speaking exclusively to the Mail this week, Jose Antonio Ballarin - who gave Ms Dingley a lift on October 21 - said Esther discussed her route with him, and it was different from the one she was believed to have been planning.

Under Spain's lockdown rules, the retired businessman shouldn't have offered a lift to a stranger at all. But something about the sight of the 37-year-old woman carrying a large khaki backpack made him pull over, he said.

Esther, who often took lifts on hiking trips, jumped in and travelled with the 71-year-old and his grandson for five miles, chatting about her plans until they reached the footpath leading to the Pico Salvaguardia, or 'safeguard peak'.

Esther Dingley: Police believe missing British hiker went missing voluntarily | Daily Mail Online
 
  • #1,334
I get why everyone is pointing out no one French or Spainish would be interested in the article, unless it was something they followed. However I randomly read the article that morning as it was the top story in “Must See”on the BBC main news page on mobile devices (not hidden in a subsection), I doubt I am the only person to have read it, in fact I would go so far as to say many more people will have read the article that morning than you believe. I skim through the page daily and only tend to read the top story in each section.

I'd also seen it on the front page of the app that morning, I'm in Lancashire and don't follow bloggers or outdoor activities but it was there! So I also suspect it was seen by far more than just local folk.

I also feel like the timing with the article is too much of a coincidence. Something just isn't sitting right with this case and I'd be shocked if an accident was the cause of her disappearance! MOO
 
  • #1,335
So Dan narrows down the area ED was most likely to go missing was small, taking less than an hour. An area he has searched himself in addition to the SAR. My lingering thoughts are that she went down to the van and became vulnerable to some unwanted attention. In that case though she would have made some contact with DC and family.
The hiking conditions were good:
DC says she was too experienced to fall into a lake:
She was well equipped:
She communicated frequently:
DC is able to pinpoint her location within an hour window:
DC and SAR on the French and Spanish side have made extensive professional searches of a wide area:
Seems unlikely she returned to the van:
No signs of ED or any of her belongings:
ED was in good physical/mental health:
Aliens are unlikely:

Well ED didn't just vanish into thin air. No yeti's in the Pyrenees. The only thing left seems to be an abduction of some sort.
None of this is making any sense.
There have been any number of cases on here where similar things were said: experienced hiker, extensive searches, clear path, etc. Paul Miller in Joshua Tree is a recent example.

I would disagree with many of the above statements.
-Darkness was falling, not good hiking conditions. Especially if one is hiking solo.
-Even experienced hikers can make a mistake, stumble, miss a path, etc.
-She communicated frequently, yet he didn't hear from her for two days and said that was not uncommon.
-The hour window presumes everything happened as planned.

If she missed the path in the twilight or couldn't find it again after going off trail for water or bathroom, she could be outside of the area they searched.

If she stumbled and was injured she may not have been able to pitch the tent. It's possible that she is in a sheltered spot and not readily visible.

Her phone could have ran out of battery or been damaged in any number of ways.

I'm going for still on the mountain, and hopefully will be found in the spring.
 
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  • #1,336
dbm
 
  • #1,337
Oh dear! I didn’t mean to post and can’t see how to undo/delete this ... so am posting something ... what does dbm mean?

I suppose I might as well take the opportunity to say how dreadful this must be for everyone that knows and loves Esther. To not know what happened must be awful.
 
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  • #1,338
Oh dear! I didn’t mean to post and can’t see how to undo/delete this ... so am posting something ... what does dbm mean?

I suppose I might as well take the opportunity to say how dreadful this must be for everyone that knows and loves Esther. To not know what happened must be awful.
DBM- deleted by me
Very useful if you post in error and dont want to explain why, or if you accidentally post twice as sometimes happens on the site.
 
  • #1,339
dbm
 
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  • #1,340
I think Dan had a defensive tone in that interview.

It’s understandable.

His loved one is missing and he will tolerate no negativity about any of her choices. According to him, it was great weather, easy trail, Esther was extremely experienced. End of story for Dan.

When Morgan Harrington disappeared (later found murdered)...her parents started a charity called “Help Save the Next Girl.” Sadly, to do so, people trying to accomplish JUST THAT...will point out things that might seem like criticism....for example, when trekking, wear bright clothes. For the family, those types of comments may be taken as a slight to their missing loved one. It’s a thin line.

There certainly seem, from the great photos posted here, to be myriad opportunities for a tragic accident....compounded by the late hour, the time of year, and the scarcity of others on the trail due to the pandemic. These are discussed as possible explanations, not criticisms. But, the tone of Dan’s interview seemed to suggest that, in his current stage of grief, he was not prepared to accept that it was anything other than an easy hike on an easy trail on a perfect day.

He and her Mother are truly in agony.
 
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