This is my first WS post, so please be kind. I feel deeply for the pain and anguish Esther Dingley's family and friends are experiencing. I have read every single post in this forum, from page one. I am convinced that ED’s close family and LE say what they say to media and how they say it because they know many more facts than we know.
That said, IMO, I am left with three major focal points for the mystery of what has happened to ED. And I am also left with the impression that IMO, ED could have made it further along her 11/22-25 itinerary than Dan or others think.
IMO here are my three major focal points:
1. Itinerary Discrepancy
On 11/22, ED tells her loved ones (and park authorities) of one itinerary that starts on 11/22 but 11/21 Mr. Ballarin hears of another itinerary. IMO there are three possible explanations:
a) Mr. Ballarin misunderstood ED (language barrier) on 11/21 and ED never intended the route he heard
b) Mr. Ballarin understood ED correctly, but she changed her route on 11/22, or
c) Mr. Ballarin understood ED correctly, but she told her loved ones of an alternative route (perhaps, IMO, with an innocent intent to surprise Dan with an early return to him with plans to pick up the RV another time).
2. Cell Phone Service:
We know there was cell phone service at the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde but not at Refuge de Vénasque. And we know ED’s phone was put on Airplane Mode at about 4pm on 11/22 with no further pings. If she survived an accident - or an encounter with a hostile animal or human - and was able to call for help, IMO, she would have.
Since she did not use her cell phone after 4pm on 11/22, IMO there are four options:
a) ED did not have such an incident,
b) ED had such an incident, but was / is too injured or incapacitated to call for help,
c) ED had such an incident, but did not have cell service where she was / is, or
d) ED had such an incident, but she did / does not have any battery remaining.
Do we have any information to inform us where on Esther’s itinerary (planned and possible alternative) there is cell service vs. not? And have all the “no cell service” areas been searched?
3. Refuge de Vénasque:
The LE say ED did not stay at the refuge the night of 11/22 or any night (e.g., 11/21) for that matter, I presume. But it is not completely clear to me if we should interpret that as defining whether Esther made it to that point in either itinerary. IMO, ED could have made it to the Refuge but did not stay inside per these possible scenarios:
a) ED went for lake water before entering the Refuge and drowned (as others have discussed)
b) ED stayed the night outdoors in her tent at the Refuge and left no trace of being there (although would her urine or excrement be picked up by tracking dogs?),
c) ED continued walking the trail at dusk, passing the Refuge for whatever reason, like, IMO:
i. ED found no running water at the Refuge and wanted to get to a stream in the woods ahead,
ii. ED was spooked by something and felt the need to keep moving to hide in the woods, or
iii. ED never planned to stop at the Refuge but rather camp further down her route.
Do we know more specifically about how the search teams ruled out Esther was not at the Refuge? And if it was due to her scent getting lost to the search dogs, where was that point exactly?
Further, do we know if ED’s scent was even picked up by tracking dogs at the Port de Vénasque, which she would have had to pass through to get to the Refuge de Vénasque from Pic de Sauvegarde?
Clearly I've asked more questions than I've answered here! I look forward to others' thoughts!
