Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[otto]

The temperature was near zero that night? In town? It would have been lower in that valley, and it would have been damp. Do we know if it was fogged over the next day?

Ice... at the stream crossing...

These are the weather conditions around the time that she vanished. I'm guessing that after she crossed the border into France, the ground could have been damp and slippery. She was in mountain shadow.

There's one part of the trail after passing the Port de Venasque where cables are available, but not everyone would use them.

Benasque

Refuge de Venasque

Bagneres-de-Luchon

Archive météo 42.7°N 0.64°E

Pic de Sauvegarde via Porte Venasque

 

[Hatty]

These are the weather conditions around the time that she vanished. I'm guessing that after she crossed the border into France, the ground could have been damp and slippery. She was in mountain shadow.

There's one part of the trail after passing the Port de Venasque where cables are available, but not everyone would use them.

Benasque

View attachment 276840

Refuge de Venasque

View attachment 276841

Bagneres-de-Luchon

View attachment 276842

Archive météo 42.7°N 0.64°E

Pic de Sauvegarde via Porte Venasque

Eek! That looks extremely hazardous!

 

[Deleted member 277705]

Another poster responded previously and I agree with their perception. Esther was looking out over a huge, spectacular valley, seemed to me to be a pretty romantic comment from her to Dan. IMO

Surely "I love you", "I miss you" "Be home soon", are romantic comments - but “Maybe I can see you!!" ?... This expression is hardly "romantic". More likely to be said in a game of Peekaboo though, where someone spots the other party and says "Peekaboo" - and is sometimes followed by the words, "I see you".

 

[Deleted member 277705]

At the moment there is absolute no suggestion from police, SAR, the family, or even the media that anyone else is involved in Esther’s disappearance.

Snipped for focus:
As long as 3rd party involvement remains a consideration by LE (they have not ruled this out), then surely that in itself would suggest another person(s) involvement ?

 

[Deleted member 277705]

BBM

The comment is : "would it not be equally foolish to dismiss any possibility of third party involvement?"

It would be foolish to imagine scenarios that have no basis in reality. Double negatives serve to bamboozle rather than inform.

Exactly. Let us focus only on scenarios that LE deem to have ascertained as having a basis in reality, including accident, third party involvement etc, as highlighted in the question “"would it not be equally foolish to dismiss any possibility of third party involvement?" . Incidentally, bearing in mind that WS is world wide and misinterpretation of languages in dialogue is possible, it might be helpful to explain your mention of double negatives to people, in that double negatives in English grammar yield a positive statement in which two negative elements are used to produce the positive force. ie, double negatives cancel each other out and make a positive, or using two negatives turns the thought or sentence into a positive one.

 

[Sarahlou]

Snipped for focus:
As long as 3rd party involvement remains a consideration by LE (they have not ruled this out), then surely that in itself would suggest another person(s) involvement ?

It's just another possibility, not a certainty. I don't see it as them suggesting someone else is definitely involved.
I don't see how they could rule it out until they find her.

 

[Deleted member 277705]

[QUOTE="Sjm_qc, post: 165 “Another possible explanation for Dingley’s disappearance – that she was the victim of a crime – has no evidence to support it.”[/QUOTE]
Snipped for focus:

Likewise, another possible explanation for Dingley's disappearance - that she was the victim of a mountain accident - has no evidence to support it.

" When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

 

[Kaykedi]

[QUOTE="Sjm_qc, post: 165 “Another possible explanation for Dingley’s disappearance – that she was the victim of a crime – has no evidence to support it.”

Snipped for focus:

Likewise, another possible explanation for Dingley's disappearance - that she was the victim of a mountain accident - has no evidence to support it.

" When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.


[/QUOTE]
Sadly, I believe poor Esther has had a tragic accident. That is the most probable cause of her disappearance, and, the evidence will be revealed in due course

 

[otto]

Snipped for focus:

Likewise, another possible explanation for Dingley's disappearance - that she was the victim of a mountain accident - has no evidence to support it.

" When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." - Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.

Esther was mountain climbing alone late in the afternoon on a trail that is labeled "difficult," for "experienced adventurers" and recommended until October. She was hiking this trail alone at the end of November.

Weather conditions on the France side of the mountain, where she began hiking at 4PM, were damper and colder than the Spain side of the mountain. That means surfaces were more likely to be slippery.

We don't have to add anything to the situation, such as a person with ill intent, to understand what is most probable.

"Pic de Sauvegarde retour par la Freche is a 18.5 kilometer loop trail located near Bagnères-de-Luchon, Occitanie, France that features a lake and is rated as difficult. The trail is primarily used for hiking, walking, and backpacking."​

Pic de Sauvegarde retour par la Freche

" ... only recommended for very experienced adventurers. The trail is primarily used for hiking, nature trips, and backpacking and is best used from May until October.​

https://www.alltrails.com/trail/france/occitanie/pic-de-sauvegarde-depuis-le-venasque

 

[otto]

Sadly, I believe poor Esther has had a tragic accident. That is the most probable cause of her disappearance, and, the evidence will be revealed in due course

That is the most probable explanation for her disappearance. Whatever happened must have occurred instantly, while she was wearing her backpack, carrying her walking poles and fully geared up. It's likely that her walking poles were attached to her hands using the hand straps and are still attached to her hands today.

Searchers familiar with the area have said that her body will be found within 3-5 years. Many people, even locals, vanish hiking in the area, so locals know how this plays out.

 

[10ofRods]

Esther was mountain climbing alone late in the afternoon on a trail that is labeled "difficult," for "experienced adventurers" and recommended until October. She was hiking this trail alone at the end of November.

Weather conditions on the France side of the mountain, where she began hiking at 4PM, were damper and colder than the Spain side of the mountain. That means surfaces were more likely to be slippery.

We don't have to add anything to the situation, such as a person with ill intent, to understand what is most probable.

"Pic de Sauvegarde retour par la Freche is a 18.5 kilometer loop trail located near Bagnères-de-Luchon, Occitanie, France that features a lake and is rated as difficult. The trail is primarily used for hiking, walking, and backpacking."​

Pic de Sauvegarde retour par la Freche

" ... only recommended for very experienced adventurers. The trail is primarily used for hiking, nature trips, and backpacking and is best used from May until October.​

Pic de Sauvegarde from Le Venasque

This is such an excellent summary of the situation, @otto (as usual). It definitely would have been colder on the north/French side of the mountain, very different to what she had been experiencing so far in her day hikes on the south side.

That cabling system is designed for people who have worn a climbing harness and who clip into it - it's not useful as a handrail (although people think they are hand rails and use them as such, in fact, holding on with one hand to that cable is not going to arrest a slip and fall).

However, the slippery ice situation near a stream seems to be the most likely situation. The guy who gave her a ride seems to think an incident involving water is most likely, as well.

At any rate, a person would need to be very careful in several sections. If she did take a fall and was injured (but still mobile), she might have become hard to locate. But as the French officials say, if she'd stayed "en piste" she would be findable.

That is the most probable explanation for her disappearance. Whatever happened must have occurred instantly, while she was wearing her backpack, carrying her walking poles and fully geared up. It's likely that her walking poles were attached to her hands using the hand straps and are still attached to her hands today.

Searchers familiar with the area have said that her body will be found within 3-5 years. Many people, even locals, vanish hiking in the area, so locals know how this plays out.

I didn't see this before I posted - but yes, the locals are very familiar with people "vanishing" up there.

Very sad.

 

[RedHaus]

Merry Christmas to Esther, Dan and their families.

This must be a very sad time for them all and my heart aches for their anguish.

 

[RickshawFan]

However, the slippery ice situation near a stream seems to be the most likely situation. The guy who gave her a ride seems to think an incident involving water is most likely, as well.

Snipped for focus.
I agree with this scenario. There are so many ways ED could have been lullled into a false sense of how safe the valley might be: loads of sunshine up top, no rain for a day or two, a trail that looks easy from above, experience "bivouac-ing" (horrors) that would have lowered her guard, the wish not to have to hang out at the Refuge even though this was the sensible option.
I keep thinking of those chia seeds and how they could make a very bad situation a thousand times worse.

10ofRods, do you have the spot where the guy who gave ED a ride opined on water accidents? No biggie if you don't; I'm just curious.

 

[RickshawFan]

Refuge de Venasque

Wow, look how cold it was at the Refuge. That's substantially below freezing. Why oh why might she even thought to not overnight there? I can see ED making that decision (I doubt in her whole hiking career she'd overnighted in freezing temperatures, and maybe not hiked in them, either), but oh, gosh...

 

[otto]

I don't think there are any streams on her planned route to Pic de Sauvegarde (4 PM), Port de Venasque (4:30 PM), Refuge de Venasque (5 PM). There are a couple of streams between Refuge de Venasque and Hospice de France, but there's no real reason to think that she was in that area.

OpenTopoMap - Topographische Karten aus OpenStreetMap

 

[RickshawFan]

I don't think there are any streams on her planned route to Pic de Sauvegarde (4 PM), Port de Venasque (4:30 PM), Refuge de Venasque (5 PM). There are a couple of streams between Refuge de Venasque and Hospice de France, but there's no real reason to think that she was in that area.

View attachment 276912

View attachment 276913

OpenTopoMap - Topographische Karten aus OpenStreetMap

That's got me confused. I thought last night we were exploring the possibility that she went right past the Refuge and headed to the Hospice? Skipping the Pic?

 

[otto]

That's got me confused. I thought last night we were exploring the possibility that she went right past the Refuge and headed to the Hospice? Skipping the Pic?

Yes, someone suggested it as a possibility. At this time, I doubt she made it to the refuge.

 

[otto]

Wow, look how cold it was at the Refuge. That's substantially below freezing. Why oh why might she even thought to not overnight there? I can see ED making that decision (I doubt in her whole hiking career she'd overnighted in freezing temperatures, and maybe not hiked in them, either), but oh, gosh...

The more I look at the bigger picture, the more I think she made rookie mistakes regarding mountains, temperatures, precipitation. All the trail guides say that October is when those hikes end. The advice in the guides is from experienced hikers, not beginners, yet she didn't heed the advice. It's exciting to climb mountains, but there are basic rules and ignoring them increases risk significantly.

 

[otto]

Here's a report that it took 2 hours 15 minutes to hike from Hospice de France to Port de Venasque, bypassing the refuge. If that's true, then Esther may have thought that she could hike down the mountain in less time.

If she was at the Port de Venaque at 3:30 PM with 2 hours of daylight and another 20 minutes of dusk - maybe she thought it was doable.

Pic de Sauvegarde, 2738m, en boucle depuis l'Hospice de France.

 

[otto]

2017, nearby accident

"The couple, followers of mountain outings, were on the western ridge of the Pic de la Mine, which rises to 2,708 meters above sea level in the town of Bagnères-de-Luchon, on the border between Haute-Garonne and Spain, when the accident happened. According to the high mountain gendarmerie platoon (PGHM) of Bagnères-de-Luchon, the accident was unfortunately due to a lack of luck, and not to an error. The hiker was on a downhill route when the rock she was clinging to came loose under the pressure of her right hand. She was then unbalanced and fell about a hundred meters."

It was other hikers, witnesses of the accident, who gave the alert by going to warn the guard of the Venasque refuge, located 400 meters below the scene of the accident.​

Une jeune Haut-garonnaise de 30 ans se tue lors d'une randonnée dans les Pyrénées