Considering the theory is that Jason tried to create the best alibi possible for himself, I'd say he was banking on getting away with murder, IMO. He thought he'd get that 4mil payout.
Possibly, but here is the thing:
Let me flip sides for a second...
Let's say Jason did kill Michelle, what in the world was going to stop police from suspecting him in the first place?
Because, you were in a hotel 2.5...2.45 or 3 hours away?
Your arguments with your wife are not only well known by everyone, you have a wife who was seeing a therapist..........
Wouldn't you be worried what she had told that therapist?
You are having an affair with her friend, her sorority sister........
That is not going to raise a few suspicions...
Then you have a recent trip where you went to see her in Orlando.
Then you have all the phonecalls, texts, and emails that are going
to be made public.
You are not going to get any support from your MIL, that is for sure,
she is not going to take your part or support you.
Then all your drunken animal house party behavior is going to come to light.
Think you are dead in the water yet?
Add in all the witnesses who will testify to how immature, irresponsible, and what a jerk you are and have been to Michelle.
Think the Jury is in love with you?
Why would a person who so much values freedom at all costs, take the risk of going to prison, perhaps even Death Row?
You are going to lose your daughter, your home, your job and go to jail forever....
You are a man who loves the outdoors, camping, hiking, canoeing, now, you are going to be in a cell.....
So, you plan to murder your wife, but you don't do the little things, like maybe unlocking a window on the
ground level of your home so that it would look like a break in?
Why make an unforced entry point directy to you?
How about throwing some things around to make it look like a burglary?
How about filling up some gas cans with gas?
What in the world makes you think you are going to get away with it?