Regarding the pictures of a doll in the wine cellar, are we sure that isn't just one of the many (partially open) presents we know for a fact were in the wine cellar? I was looking at ACR's page on the basement that was linked earlier and she includes a picture of FAO Schwartz wrapping paper.
We also know for a fact that the Ramseys had that exact wrapping paper on Dec. 25th:
This one shows at least three presents with that paper:
And if you look at this picture of the blanket, there is clearly a box on the floor that is white with some sort of yellow design on it that looks similar to the yellow box with a white rocking horse on it on the FAO wrapping paper. It's in approximately the same place as the doll would be.
So if you compare the pattern on the wine cellar mystery object to the yellow, red, and blue squares on the wrapping paper behind JB, I can see the yellow square (mistaken for doll hair) above a red square (mistaken to be a dress) with two little dark triangles where the blue and purple squares are wrapped around the box. The red square's rocking horse is somewhat distorted because it's being wrapped around the back part of the box.