Found Deceased TN - Noah Chamberlin, 2, Pinson, 14 Jan 2016 - #1

[Elainera]

Thank you Khughey for your helpful and interesting explanations!

 

[Elainera]

The poor grandma will never be happy in her own house again ...

 

[passionflower]

For those of you concerned why Noah's scent has not been picked up by the dogs. I live close to where he went missing and It rained the night that Noah went missing. I would think that would likely prevent the dogs from picking up his scent. Still praying that he will be found soon, it is going down to 16 degrees here tonight ��

Thank you for being a local. If you are a neighbor please ask Tricia to be verified in case we need you at a later date through this horrible situation. Do you know the family? :grouphug:

 

[Sweetgrits]

The poor grandma will never be happy in her own house again ...

My heart is breaking for this family.

 

[Ray_of_hope]

One of the dangers in any search is scenario lock. The last thing you want is to put ALL your resources on a single track and exclude the possibility that something else may be at play. Early on in a search (after initial hasty search/reflex tasking) the commanders should employ one of several systematic methods of determining probability of area (POA), or in laymen;s term...what areas should we focus on.

A over simplified version consists of gathering some key players (LEO, locals familiar with the area, SAR team leaders) and having them brainstorm possibilities.....for example...
1. Wandered along the trail.
2. Wandered off trail.
3. Encountered a stranger and was abducted.
4. Taken by a friend / family.
5. Found the local pond, and fell in.
6. Abducted by aliens.

You get the idea. Once this "initial" list is tabulated, all the key players go thru a process of assigning percentages to each possibility. This process of voting is also performed on the segments that are created on the map, of the search area. Ultimately you have the initial high probability areas to focus on. As new clues arise, and areas are searched, the focus will change on what areas have next highest priority. It is part science and part art.

Thank you for your insightful and knowledgeable information.

 

[Khughey]

Hey, Khughey, you seem to know about searches. Yesterday the sheriff said they had been doing grid searches and were starting "cross gridding." Do you know what that means?

drjones gave the concise answer here is my long winded reply


"Cross Gridding" is not a term I've heard used in SAR operations, but I'll tell you what I think he's talking about in a moment. Traditional search management consists of an series of escalations, until the target is located or the search is scaled back.

They normally progress as follows (and I'll use the generally accepted terminology)...
1. Reflex Tasking (initiated immediately when you suspect a lost person). It consists of things such as
A. Containment (making sure the subject doesn't wander out of the search area),
B. Hasty Search (searching roads, trails, power line right of ways, streams) areas emanating from the point last seen (PLS), last known position (LKP).
C. Hub Search (focused search 300 meters around the PLS).
D. Search around attractors (identify things that might attract the subject AND hazards, such as ponds, cliffs, overlooks)

2. Area Searches - Areas are identified and labeled on the search map. Each area is small enough that a single trained SAR team should be able to cover it within 1 operational period (normally 6-8 hrs).

3. Grid Searches - These searches should only be utilized as a last resort and when a very small area has been identified or you are doing an evidence search. The reason is, this type of search is where you have people lined up (almost shoulder to shoulder) moving thru an area very slowly. It uses an incredible number of resources and pretty much destroys clues as a result of looking for them. It is also often utilized when dealing with a large group of untrained search volunteers. The incident commander would assign a group of volunteers to "grid search" and area that has a very low probability (not zero however), while the trained folks focus on higher probability areas.

Now with all that said.... When you look at #2 (area searches), one strategy to improve your probability of detection is to send multiple teams into an area, from different directions. So let's say on day 1, TEAM Alpha searched segment 1 from north to south. On day 2, the incident commander may send in TEAM Alpha to search the same grid, but this time from East to West. That is the most logical explanation I have for what the sheriff may be referring to. He just used a simpler and public friendly vernacular.

 

[jellybeanz]

For those of you concerned why Noah's scent has not been picked up by the dogs. I live close to where he went missing and It rained the night that Noah went missing. I would think that would likely prevent the dogs from picking up his scent. Still praying that he will be found soon, it is going down to 16 degrees here tonight ��

Dogs can still track after rain.

https://houndtracks.wordpress.com/2010/02/13/will-rain-ruin-a-scent-trail/

 

[passionflower]

Is it normal for an 'endangered child alert'
http://utcecho.com/2016/01/17/endangered-child-alert-issued-for-missing-2-year-old.html
when LE say he is in the woods???

 

[hey-Debbie]

Are they going to extend the search area at all I wonder. What if he traveled father on his own than they think.

 

[4senthia]

Is it normal for an 'endangered child alert'
http://utcecho.com/2016/01/17/endangered-child-alert-issued-for-missing-2-year-old.html
when LE say he is in the woods???

That is very interesting.
Note the time of the issue: January 17, 2016 | 20:31 (8:31 pm Pinson time tonight)
Why now?
jmo

 

[Sweetgrits]

One of the dangers in any search is scenario lock. The last thing you want is to put ALL your resources on a single track and exclude the possibility that something else may be at play. Early on in a search (after initial hasty search/reflex tasking) the commanders should employ one of several systematic methods of determining probability of area (POA), or in laymen;s term...what areas should we focus on.

A over simplified version consists of gathering some key players (LEO, locals familiar with the area, SAR team leaders) and having them brainstorm possibilities.....for example...
1. Wandered along the trail.
2. Wandered off trail.
3. Encountered a stranger and was abducted.
4. Taken by a friend / family.
5. Found the local pond, and fell in.
6. Abducted by aliens.

You get the idea. Once this "initial" list is tabulated, all the key players go thru a process of assigning percentages to each possibility. This process of voting is also performed on the segments that are created on the map, of the search area. Ultimately you have the initial high probability areas to focus on. As new clues arise, and areas are searched, the focus will change on what areas have next highest priority. It is part science and part art.

Respectfully, this sounds like a lot of steps to take when a child is missing. I'm sure it falls into place quicker that I can understand, but during the times that someone is lining up a grid to search, deciding the high probability areas, etc do they have someone who does an initial search as soon as info comes in that there is a child missing and LE arrives on scene? Even if there is a possibility of custodial kidnapping or foul play of some kind are there searches going on while other officers are checking into alternative scenarios?

Just curious, are you a search coordinator or maybe LE?

 

[EllieBee]

That is very interesting.
Note the time of the issue: January 17, 2016 | 20:31 (8:31 pm Pinson time tonight)
Why now?
jmo

Possibly some new info or evidence has come to light?

 

[MsMarple]

Tyler Whetstone ‏@tyler_whetstone 8m8 minutes ago
Flurries coming down in Pinson as we're past 9 p.m. on day 4. #FindNoah

Crap.

 

[JanetElaine]

That is very interesting.
Note the time of the issue: January 17, 2016 | 20:31 (8:31 pm Pinson time tonight)
Why now?
jmo

It has been around for days (on unlinkable sources).

 

[4senthia]

I imagine when the TBI is involved in a search most options are being vetted probably via computer algorithms.
Lots of things going on much higher up than with the sheriff who is in charge of the search and rescue locally, imo.

 

[carole]

That is very interesting.
Note the time of the issue: January 17, 2016 | 20:31 (8:31 pm Pinson time tonight)
Why now?
jmo

He has been considered endangered from the beginning - see tweet from TBI posted to twitter at 3:05 January 14 at link below -

https://mobile.twitter.com/TBInvestigation/status/687772528547368962

IMO endangered because he is 2 yrs old lost by himself in the woods.

 

[MsMarple]

Mn

He has been considered endangered from the beginning - see tweet from TBI posted to twitter at 3:05 January 14 at link below below -

https://mobile.twitter.com/TBInvestigation/status/687772528547368962

IMO endangered because he is 2 yrs old lost by himself in the woods.

In the middle of winter.

 

[Khughey]

Respectfully, this sounds like a lot of steps to take when a child is missing. I'm sure it falls into place quicker that I can understand, but during the times that someone is lining up a grid to search, deciding the high probability areas, etc do they have someone who does an initial search as soon as info comes in that there is a child missing and LE arrives on scene? Even if there is a possibility of custodial kidnapping or foul play of some kind are there searches going on while other officers are checking into alternative scenarios?

Just curious, are you a search coordinator or maybe LE?

You are absolutely correct Things need to happen immediately, even before a lot of info has been gathered. That is where Reflex Tasking comes into play. I posted another item (just after the one you replied to) that gave a very brief description of that. The whole reason for reflex tasking was to let the initial incident commander "get the ball rolling" while he prepped for the possibility that the subject isn't found or self rescues in the initial first few hours. While the reflex tasking is going on, the IC can prep for the next operational period.

I've been a volunteer SAR operator in north Georgia for many years. Started with a focus on missing aircraft, and have morphed into lost person focus. I've attended formalized training on managing the lost person incident and lost person behavior, and have participated in numerous live searches. Currently I'm with the Georgia Appalachian Trail Club's SAR team. The sar team's site is at http://www.GeorgiaSAR.com .

 

[Foxfire]

I would like to salute the TN searchers; Law Enforcement, professional SAR, as well as the volunteer searchers for their diligence and perseverance in the search for Noah.. The vast number of Tennesseans that have showed up to search for two year old Noah Israel Chamberlin, give new meaning to Tennessee, being the Volunteer state'..not just a slogan..
Noah is out there Somewhere, and I am confident that he will be found..

[video=youtube;jan-BZ1R1G8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jan-BZ1R1G8[/video]

 

[Sweetgrits]

You are absolutely correct Things need to happen immediately, even before a lot of info has been gathered. That is where Reflex Tasking comes into play. I posted another item (just after the one you replied to) that gave a very brief description of that. The whole reason for reflex tasking was to let the initial incident commander "get the ball rolling" while he prepped for the possibility that the subject isn't found or self rescues in the initial first few hours. While the reflex tasking is going on, the IC can prep for the next operational period.

I've been a volunteer SAR operator in north Georgia for many years. Started with a focus on missing aircraft, and have morphed into lost person focus. I've attended formalized training on managing the lost person incident and lost person behavior, and have participated in numerous live searches. Currently I'm with the Georgia Appalachian Trail Club's SAR team. The sar team's site is at http://www.GeorgiaSAR.com .

Well I'm glad you're here and thank you for your insight.