AMBER ALERT TN - Summer Moon-Utah Wells, 5, Rogersville, 15 Jun 2021 #32

[Chelly]

BBM. They don't need search planes, they need drop cams. I still believe she is close by the home on a secondary surface. (Fell between rocks, down crevice, etc.)

Amateur opinion and speculation

Wouldn't the search dogs have discovered her scent?

 

[rosesfromangels]

Wouldn't the search dogs have discovered her scent?

The dogs are very helpful, but not infallible. So no, not always. One of our trackers on the thread can weigh in, as they are the true experts related to this question.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[Oriah]

The dogs are very helpful, but not infallible. So no, not always. One of our trackers on the thread can weigh in, as they are the true experts related to this question.

Amateur opinion and speculation

I agree, rosesfromangels.
While we have been told that several different type of k9s were utilized in the searches for Summer, we really don't know anything about their training, background, disciplines, handlers, etc. We can hope the appropriate k9s were used at the right times, under the right circumstances, with the proper adjunct tools. But we really just don't have a way of verifying that.

Also- I personally believe there is a lot of misinterpretation and misunderstanding of searches in many MP cases. LE has said that they covered 1000+ acres of ground in their initial search week for Summer. That does NOT mean that 1000+ acres were 'cleared.'

Summer's little 5 yo self would have been the quintessential needle in a haystack in that terrain, in mid-June. IMO, no WAY 1000+ acres were cleared. Not by humans, dogs, drones, planes, divers, a combo of all.
A great deal of territory covered? Yes. Cleared? No.

This does NOT mean that LE has not done a good job. It just means the circumstances and environment make it profoundly prohibitive to clear.

This is JMO.

 

[Ozoner]

I agree, rosesfromangels.
While we have been told that several different type of k9s were utilized in the searches for Summer, we really don't know anything about their training, background, disciplines, handlers, etc. We can hope the appropriate k9s were used at the right times, under the right circumstances, with the proper adjunct tools. But we really just don't have a way of verifying that.

Also- I personally believe there is a lot of misinterpretation and misunderstanding of searches in many MP cases. LE has said that they covered 1000+ acres of ground in their initial search week for Summer. That does NOT mean that 1000+ acres were 'cleared.'

Summer's little 5 yo self would have been the quintessential needle in a haystack in that terrain, in mid-June. IMO, no WAY 1000+ acres were cleared. Not by humans, dogs, drones, planes, divers, a combo of all.
A great deal of territory covered? Yes. Cleared? No.

This does NOT mean that LE has not done a good job. It just means the circumstances and environment make it profoundly prohibitive to clear.

This is JMO.

Initially, they were searching for a live, able-bodied child that had perhaps wandered off. They were likely calling her name, etc. So covering that area just means that Summer wasn't within earshot of the searchers and willing and able to respond. If she was incapacitated or hiding, then the initial search would not have found her.

They were looking for a body in subsequent searches, but if she had become wedged in a fissure or even if she had simply curled up in low spot in order to keep warm, then she could have been missed.

 

[passionflower]

The terrain around there is really crazy. It's a lot of streams, crevasses and valleys. I imagine it's incredibly difficult to search on foot and debris and underbrush make it difficult to search by air.

We have crevasses here that people are hiking fall 20 feet down lucky they live and are with someone to call for help. Thinking about the terrible scream? Could be Summer falling in a crevass? Just a thought

 

[Catmommy]

I'm thinking it'll be a quiet, sad Christmas at the Wells' house this year.

 

[Ozoner]

We have crevasses here that people are hiking fall 20 feet down lucky they live and are with someone to call for help. Thinking about the terrible scream? Could be Summer falling in a crevass? Just a thought

The red truck more or less seals the deal for me that it was an abduction, probably by someone who was already familiar with the property. I can't totally rule out the possibility that the family was followed home from the swimming he or the store, though.

 

[sk716]

The red truck more or less seals the deal for me that it was an abduction, probably by someone who was already familiar with the property. I can't totally rule out the possibility that the family was followed home from the swimming he or the store, though.

Agreed. Personally, I think a planned/opportunistic abduction may have occurred. Summer and H stayed in the car at the grocery store. The grocery store is in a pretty busy area with a huge Eastman Chemical complex right next door. Looks like a landfill is right there as well. My point is, a lot of traffic is popping by that grocery store to get milk on the way home.

Even though we don't have any clear timeline on how long they were actually in the store it was at least half an hour. Plenty of time for a preferential predator to see her in the back seat. A preferential predator would not be able to resist stalking the target. The hypothetical preferential predator follows them home and begins staking out the area. Looking for access points, discovering that Simpson Road connects back to Beech Creek Road even though the map says it doesn't, etc. This is also where an unknown vehicle would most likely have been noticed.

So the hypothetical preferential predator is creeping around Ben Hill Rd in a red truck and spots his target chasing a puppy (or whatever) down the dog trail. He was laying the groundwork to abduct and his target just ran right to him.

Her having wandered into the woods and gotten lost is statistically more likely. Search dogs aren't infallible, but it just bothers me that they lost her scent at the road. If she had continued on foot, they should have been able to pick up her scent again on the other side of the road or going up the driveway. Just a very coincidental place to lose a scent completely.

 

[Ozoner]

Agreed. Personally, I think a planned/opportunistic abduction may have occurred. Summer and H stayed in the car at the grocery store. The grocery store is in a pretty busy area with a huge Eastman Chemical complex right next door. Looks like a landfill is right there as well. My point is, a lot of traffic is popping by that grocery store to get milk on the way home.

Even though we don't have any clear timeline on how long they were actually in the store it was at least half an hour. Plenty of time for a preferential predator to see her in the back seat. A preferential predator would not be able to resist stalking the target. The hypothetical preferential predator follows them home and begins staking out the area. Looking for access points, discovering that Simpson Road connects back to Beech Creek Road even though the map says it doesn't, etc. This is also where an unknown vehicle would most likely have been noticed.

So the hypothetical preferential predator is creeping around Ben Hill Rd in a red truck and spots his target chasing a puppy (or whatever) down the dog trail. He was laying the groundwork to abduct and his target just ran right to him.

Her having wandered into the woods and gotten lost is statistically more likely. Search dogs aren't infallible, but it just bothers me that they lost her scent at the road. If she had continued on foot, they should have been able to pick up her scent again on the other side of the road or going up the driveway. Just a very coincidental place to lose a scent completely.

If not for the red truck, her getting lost in the woods would be statistically more likely, but the truck changes things.

Sadly, she might never be found, and we might be having the same conversations ten years from now.

 

[Allabouttrial]

Agreed. Personally, I think a planned/opportunistic abduction may have occurred. Summer and H stayed in the car at the grocery store. The grocery store is in a pretty busy area with a huge Eastman Chemical complex right next door. Looks like a landfill is right there as well. My point is, a lot of traffic is popping by that grocery store to get milk on the way home.

Even though we don't have any clear timeline on how long they were actually in the store it was at least half an hour. Plenty of time for a preferential predator to see her in the back seat. A preferential predator would not be able to resist stalking the target. The hypothetical preferential predator follows them home and begins staking out the area. Looking for access points, discovering that Simpson Road connects back to Beech Creek Road even though the map says it doesn't, etc. This is also where an unknown vehicle would most likely have been noticed.

So the hypothetical preferential predator is creeping around Ben Hill Rd in a red truck and spots his target chasing a puppy (or whatever) down the dog trail. He was laying the groundwork to abduct and his target just ran right to him.

Her having wandered into the woods and gotten lost is statistically more likely. Search dogs aren't infallible, but it just bothers me that they lost her scent at the road. If she had continued on foot, they should have been able to pick up her scent again on the other side of the road or going up the driveway. Just a very coincidental place to lose a scent completely.

The problem is the dogs picking up her scent down the dog trail was Don's narrative. Dave Radar from Equusearch said he was told that the scent was picked up on the driveway as did Sheriff Lawson.

Also, there is a video of Don going down that trail. And that is not a path a 5 yr old would be able to run down without tripping up IMO.

 

[Trackergd]

While a considerable amount of land was searched, all you can do is look at what assets searched each area and determine the probability of detection. Some teams have a better track record than others. When you have a high mix of LE, untrained volunteers and trained SAR, the Incident Commander has the responsibility of keeping detailed records of what teams searched what grids. An in depth review might show that one or more areas could use a second look while there is a much clearer view of the woods. My gut keeps telling me the hollow needs a good hard look. Not only for what may be there, but evidence that something was there that is no longer there.

 

[sk716]

The problem is the dogs picking up her scent down the dog trail was Don's narrative. Dave Radar from Equusearch said he was told that the scent was picked up on the driveway as did Sheriff Lawson.

Also, there is a video of Don going down that trail. And that is not a path a 5 yr old would be able to run down without tripping up IMO.

I don't know that we ever got a confirmation from the actual dog handlers where the dogs followed the scent, and it really doesn't matter if it was the driveway or the dog trail. We do have confirmation that the dogs followed the scent to the road. Both are out of view of Grandma's trailer door Summer exited from the basement door.

She's a country kid. Country kids run around barefoot, climb trees, fling themselves down hills, and have never met a mudhole that didn't need investigation. Even the girls.

 

[sk716]

While a considerable amount of land was searched, all you can do is look at what assets searched each area and determine the probability of detection. Some teams have a better track record than others. When you have a high mix of LE, untrained volunteers and trained SAR, the Incident Commander has the responsibility of keeping detailed records of what teams searched what grids. An in depth review might show that one or more areas could use a second look while there is a much clearer view of the woods. My gut keeps telling me the hollow needs a good hard look. Not only for what may be there, but evidence that something was there that is no longer there.

That hollow would have been my favorite play area. At 5, I wouldn't have gone without my brother or another playmate, though. By 7 or 8, maybe.

If we could get a current overhead shot, we can compare to historical images of the area from Google Earth.

Dates in the upper left hand corner.

 

[Caylee Advocate]

I pray that little Summer is alive and being cared for by someone who wanted the best for her. It would still be wrong, but better than the thoughts some of us imagine.




Hopefully Santa can find her and take her home. Merry Christmas little one.

 

[December]

We might as well think positively here on Christmas Eve. Miracles do happen.

Merry Christmas, Summer.

 

[everybodhi]

The problem is the dogs picking up her scent down the dog trail was Don's narrative. Dave Radar from Equusearch said he was told that the scent was picked up on the driveway as did Sheriff Lawson.

Also, there is a video of Don going down that trail. And that is not a path a 5 yr old would be able to run down without tripping up IMO.

Doesn’t the dog trail cut through from the back yard to the driveway? Specifically at the end of the driveway where it meets the road?
I have no evidence as to SW’s capability maneuvering the trails in her yard but if someone carried her up the dog trail to the driveway, couldn’t a dog still pick up her scent, depending on the type of dog?

How Search-and-rescue Dogs Work

Tracking dogs work with their noses to the ground. They can follow a trail of human scent — typically heavy skin particles that fall quickly to the ground or onto bushes — through any type of terrain. These dogs are not searching, they're following. Tracking dogs need a "last seen" starting point, an article with the person's scent on it to work from and an uncontaminated trail.

For a tracking dog, time is an issue. If a child disappears from a school playground or an inmate escapes from a prison, a tracking dog can be called in to follow the person's scent immediately after the disappearance, before other search groups and law-enforcement personnel contaminate the scent trail.

Air-scent dogs, on the other hand, work with their noses focused toward the air. They pick up human scent anywhere in the vicinity; they don't need a "last seen" starting point. Whereas tracking dogs follow a particular scent trail, air-scent dogs pick up a smell carried in air currents and seek out its origin — the point of greatest concentration.

 

[December]

DW said they brought in dogs from the prison the first night. So, i guess those would be tracking dogs?

 

[Oriah]

That hollow would have been my favorite play area. At 5, I wouldn't have gone without my brother or another playmate, though. By 7 or 8, maybe.

If we could get a current overhead shot, we can compare to historical images of the area from Google Earth.

Dates in the upper left hand corner.

View attachment 327502 View attachment 327503 View attachment 327504 View attachment 327505 View attachment 327506 View attachment 327507 View attachment 327508 View attachment 327509

Hi, sk716, can you reference these images to what has been used in the media as the 'hollow' in Summer's case? I'm concerned that even locals might not have the correct/appropriate area. TIA and happy holidays!

 

[Oriah]

I pray that little Summer is alive and being cared for by someone who wanted the best for her. It would still be wrong, but better than the thoughts some of us imagine.


View attachment 327521

Hopefully Santa can find her and take her home. Merry Christmas little one.

Happy holidays everyone. I don't know about ya'll...but I can't get this little one out of my mind this season Let's keep working on her case until she comes home.

 

[Oriah]

DW said they brought in dogs from the prison the first night. So, i guess those would be tracking dogs?

December, do you have a link for which specific prison they brought dogs in from that first night (June 15-17th?) and for how long? Trying to find which dogs/handlers were utilized initially. TIA