How's this for a theory:
Oscar and Reeva argue in the bedroom earlier in the morning starting before 2am
Estelle van der Merwe is woken at 1.56am by the noise of a fight.
It is hard to make out but she hears a woman's voice, but does not know where it is coming from
She tries and eventually gets back to sleep
At some time the bedroom door may have been damaged
At some point the arguing calmed down only to begin again later
Oscar picks up or threatens to pick up the cricket bat
Reeva starts to feel scared. She runs from the bedroom up the corridor to the bathroom
(She may have even opened the window thinking about getting out)
(Oscar may have argued with her in the bathroom and thrown her jeans out of the window)
She locks herself in the toilet.
The toilet is dark
He hears the door lock and is furious that he cannot confront her directly
The light in the toilet was broken so she could only see by the far away street lights
She does not have time to phone for help
Mrs Stipp has a bout of coughing which wakes her up
She looks at her clock which says 3.02. (Clock was fast - actual time about 2.58)
(She will look at her clock again at 3.17 actual time about 3.13)
The clock is now running and the defence must account for how OP used up this time an did not confirm to himself that he shot Reeva for another 15 minutes.
Oscar comes into the bathroom with the cricket bat. The light may already be on or he may now switch it on
He may or may no be on his prosthetics.
The damage shows the angle of the cricket bat in the door is consistent with being hit by a shorter person standing in a natural position
The damage is also consistent with a taller person leaning into the hit, putting their body weight into the blow to use maximum force.
After the defence case it is unlikely that this will be reliably decided.
Reeva sees the light go on, she may scream which is not heard due to the locked toilet or
does not scream so as not to escalate the situation.
Mr Stipp is woken by 3 loud bangs
Mrs Stipp is fully awake and hears 3 "gunshots" as OP hits the door with the cricket bat and moments after a woman screaming
Roux tries to make out that Mrs Stipp slept through the first "shot" by first lying to the court about her being "asleep" when cross examining Mr Stipp
She has line of sight to the bathroom window from her bed.
The "shots" are OP hitting the door breaking it. There are only 3 hits
The cricket bat has broken out a piece of the door along the weakest line of the joint at the right edge of the top inner panel
It runs almost the complete height of the panel and parts of it are the splinters lost from the door exhibit
Only the Stipps heard these "shots"
At this point OP may break away some other part of the panel. Now the panel is broken parts may be relatively easily lifted out
(Note: The toilet and bathroom windows are frosted. The toilet window is separate to and to the left of the bathroom window. The bathroom window has 3 sections, the left section was open. The Stipps could see straight in through the open section where the bathroom light appeared bright)
Mrs Stipp see's the bathroom light on and crucially LIGHT IN THE TOILET almost as bright as behind the closed part of the bathroom window.
She described it as a "light on in the toilet"
Mr Stipp said he ALSO SAW "LIGHT" IN THE TOILET. but it was not as bright as in the bathroom window - it would certainly not have been as bright as the light from the open part of the bathroom window.
He did at one point say he didn't see a "light on" in the toilet as he thought it was not bright enough for this.
The defence sought to confuse and negate this evidence. It appeared as if the Stipps disagreed about there being light in the toilet, which they did not. It was a difference in description only.
The fact that the Stipps had not colluded to clarify and strengthen this evidence is telling
THE STIPPS SAW THE BATHROOM LIGHT THROUGH THE HOLE OP MADE IN THE TOILET DOOR
If both Stipps saw light in the toilet straight after the first sounds which OP said were only gunshots then OP must have been lying.
Roux had already told the court that OP said the toilet light was broken.
Reeva's screams could now be heard clearly through the hole and out through the open bathroom window (Stipp said the screams were clear and unmuffled)
Roux argued Monday 4 March, Session 3 at 28.00min in support of MB hearing OP screams that should be easy to hear through same open window at the distance
The Stipps go quickly to their small balcony, they hear a woman/female screaming.
They say the screams were "moments" after the shots.
At about 3.03 (2.59 actual time) "just after 3" the Bergers are woken by Reevas screams. (They did not hear the door being hit)
Mr Berger very roughly estimates there is 2 minutes before the cries of "help"
After 3/4 min the Stipps move to their big balcony for a better view
Mr Stipp goes in and spends some time during the following events calling:
Silverwood Security No answer
Called 10111 - not in service
Its is now about 3.05/3.06 (3.01/3.02 actual time)
Reeva screams help help help
Oscar shouts help, help, help mocking her. He may have been in the bedroom at this point as Mr Stipp said the helps were muffled.
The Bergers call security
There is continued screaming some of which may not have been heard as the witnesses were busy getting dressed/phoning
Oscar goes to get his gun.
Reeva can see out through the hole in the door and she knows Oscar is coming with the gun
Her screams intensify. Mrs Berger says "to a climax"
Mr Berger is on his balcony and hears the same
Mrs Stipp hears this as screams coming closer as if along the road
He then hears "2 /3 loud bangs". Thinks it is shooting
The Bergers hear shot....shot shot shot taking
The shots lasted 3.5 seconds with a longer approx 1.5 second pause between shot 1 and 2
Mrs Stipp hears a man screaming just before the shots, she cannot make out words then hears 3 shots.
Mrs Stipp has just looked at he clock. It says 3.17 (actual time 3.13)
For a short time it was together with the woman screaming. There was differences in the pitches at the same time.
Estelle van der Merwe and her husband now both hear bang bang bang bang, her husband says they are gunshots
OP now angry beyond control comes into the bathroom
As he does so he raises his gun and fires four shots, moving towards the door and to the right as if to try to see Reeva through the long narrow vertical hole in the door
He may be on his stumps and firing with the gun raised to his eye although as he is moving this would seem odd
He may be on his prosthetics firing from the hip. He had a trapped easy target so as he was moving at the time this would seem more likely
The bullet holes are not tightly grouped and not consistent with double tapped shots.
Reeva fell back onto the magazine rack where a ricochet hit her
The next two shots hit her in the arm and head, She screamed as long as she could but it died away after the last shot.
The screams dying away after the last shot were heard by the Bergers and Mrs Stipp
Estelle van der Merwe describes silence after the shooting
When Mr Stipp goes back on the balcony and hears a man shouting "help" "help" "help"
Security arrive and talk to the Stipps on their balcony
Mr Stipp again went to the other balcony and watches Security leave
Mr Stipp sees a light coloured figure moving from right to left through the bathroom window
Mrs Stipp initially reported the same but retracted this when she realised it was her husbands recollection.
She also "remembered" the event before the final shots not after
Mr Stipp said the bathroom and toilet lights did not change at any time
Mrs Stipp said the bathroom and toilet lights did not change at any time
Oscar with prosthetics now on, probably realising the terrible truth of what he had done, pulled out the rest of the panel, got the key and dragged her out.
It was as he was breaking down the rest of the panel that the bullet hole that the bat man expert pointed out caused a crack in the wood to deviate.
It was only 1 hole that showed this effect. It has been heavily assumed including by me, maybe wrongly, that all the shots preceded all the bat hits.
Oscar horrified at what he has done picks up Reeva and carries her downstairs where he is met by Security and later Dr Stipp.