Tropical Storm Emily 08.2011

[dsntslp]

NOAA Advisory #4

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY HESITATES...IT COULD BE REORGANIZING...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

<snip w/respect, brevity)

More at link

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
----------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EMILY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 12 MPH...19 KM/H...LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WAS REPORTED ON
ST. THOMAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[dsntslp]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/021451.shtml

Tropical Storm EMILY Forecast Discussion


TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...
WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.

FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS
BEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY. A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE
NORTH THEREAFTER. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

 

[dsntslp]

My local weatherman at CBS12 seems like he is not concerned at all

 

[Reality Orlando]

Depends where in Florida they are...

I am East Coast and in a direct line for it unless it changes paths.

What I never understand is how they can figure with it so far away still that it will remain a Cat 2 or less. Even a Cat 2 should be taken seriously though. It can still do some major damage.

ETA: And it really does not matter what CAT it is the preparations are all the same, ugh.

Thinking on that again, no it's not. A CAT 3 or above and we evacuate equipment trailers and the 30'camper, valuables, tools so we have them when we return etc...

We went through Frances and Jeanne. Almost 3 wks w/no power, it was on again for a couple days and we started all over again with the second hurricane and no power again for days. Horrible. My roof almost came off. They replaced 21 sheets of base plywood up there. The nails that were supposed to be in the roof trusses were actually sitting next to the trusses where the roof lifted and came back down. All of the front rafters were actually twisted and had to be repaired. FEMA said a few more minutes of sustained winds and it would have been gone. There were 7 of us here then. It sounded like a roofer was up there with a nail gun during the storm but the reality was it was more nails popping. We quickly discovered that two bathrooms are not enough for 7 people, lol. Never again. CAT 3 or above and we get the heck out.

The beginning prep is the same though. Fuel all vehicles, water, food, more fuel for generator, make ice bottles, clean the yard, tie things down etc...

Oh, pooh! You must be close to me. We were without power a little over 3 weeks with Jeanne et. al. as well. Battery and canned food run this afternoon just to be sure. :sponge:

 

[dsntslp]

Oh, pooh! You must be close to me. We were without power a little over 3 weeks with Jeanne et. al. as well. Battery and canned food run this afternoon just to be sure. :sponge:

South of you by about two hours on the Treasure Coast

Yeah, we are only doing what we would ordinarily do right now too. Fuel the trucks, check air etc, groceries, clean the yard, extra dog food (6 dogs here, two are pregnant) and extra pool chemicals. The lifts here for city sewage go down when there is no power and the manhole in front of my house always backs up and in the sidewalk so I throw chlorine tabs in it and post a sign for people to keep their dogs out of it, put caution tape around it. We also check pools for about a 3 block area if the power stays off long enough to make pools green. A lot of homeowners are not here in the summer and the green pools drive me nutz especially if the fences are down. The idea of a child not being seen on the bottom, oh myyy. So to calm my own mind we buy an extra bucket of chlorine tabs, lol.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Well here - South Broward county - they are already starting the hype. Its a standing joke here that every time a local news weatherman says the word "hurricane" that they get a kick back from Home Depot! :floorlaugh:

The noon news did say that Miami-Dade EOC has been opened and they are making early preps.

Me? Well, I'm sitting out back in absolutely beautiful skies (a little hot tho) with my pitcher of iced tea w/ rum enjoying the day. The next couple of days will be gorgeous - always are right before a storm.

*****kicks up feet and grabs glass****** AAAAAHHHHHH.....................

 

[dsntslp]

2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 2
Location: 15.6°N 64.8°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

 

[dsntslp]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/022339.shtml?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...OUTER RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

=================
Me:
The new forecast images show Emily crawling the coastline but not making direct impact with FL.

IMO however it also shows the outer left leading edge swiping the treasure coast.

Isn't the front left leading edge where the most severe winds are located? Anybody?

ETA: I am thinking now that it is the NE lead edge that is most volatile. (As compared to other outside edges, not the center.)
Off to research and be sure.
Will update if somebody else does not do it before I get back.

TY,
Dsn

 

[dsntslp]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/022339.shtml?


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.


FORECASTER BRENNAN


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN
SERVICE STATION AT ESPERANZA ON THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...55 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 44
MPH...71 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.