TX TX-Hunt, Overnight flooding at Camp Mystic, all girls camp. Unknown number of missing. July 4, 2025

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This is so horrific and terrifying for all involved. Without victim blaming, I do ask how this occurred at a campsite like this? Was there not enough warning of how bad the weather was going to be? Was it deemed not necessary to evacuate? I understand there were a large number of campers involved, but management need a comprehensive emergency plan to suit. I'm just trying to understand how it got to this point.
 
  • #43
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  • #44
HoneyBunOne said:
This is so horrific and terrifying for all involved. Without victim blaming, I do ask how this occurred at a campsite like this? Was there not enough warning of how bad the weather was going to be? Was it deemed not necessary to evacuate? I understand there were a large number of campers involved, but management need a comprehensive emergency plan to suit. I'm just trying to understand how it got to this point.
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From what I heard from the recent press conference, forecasts did not accurately reflect how much rain was coming.
 
  • #45
Moo... Would have to check out the weather forecasts for that area....to see if there were flash flood advisories or warnings.
 
  • #46
Knox said:
Not sure if anyone caught the Live pressor that just ended. Officals faced some tough questions from reporters. A lot of criticism being aimed at Local & State Officials for failing to act.

Officials repeatedly said the forecasts did not accurately predict the amount or intensity of rainfall that occurred.
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There were areas that got 11” or more of rain and being the hill country it runs down the hills to the rivers. I’m about 2 hours north of the flooding. We knew we were going to get rain but I don’t think any of the models that I looked at prior to this had these levels of rain. Kerrville is a relatively small town, roughly 25K so it’s relatively rural. After this the state may step in and help with an early warning system.
 
  • #47
Knox said:
Not sure if anyone caught the Live pressor that just ended. Officals faced some tough questions from reporters. A lot of criticism being aimed at Local & State Officials for failing to act.

Officials repeatedly said the forecasts did not accurately predict the amount or intensity of rainfall that occurred.
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They’ve had nearly 40 years since the deaths of the 10 teen campers that drown in the same area with the same type of flooding and have done nothing to plan and prepare. They deserve criticism. Forecasts are also now hampered by the gutting of the National Weather Service. <modsnip>
 
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  • #48
kuromiiiilove said:
From what I heard from the recent press conference, forecasts did not accurately reflect how much rain was coming.
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Thanks for answering, I was worried I'd be jumped on and attacked for asking. In this case, it's even more heartbreaking. I think. It's horrible either way. I guess by the time it was deemed too dangerous it would have been too late to enact an evacuation plan. Just devastating.
 
  • #49
kuromiiiilove said:
From what I heard from the recent press conference, forecasts did not accurately reflect how much rain was coming.
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This whole thing reminds me of the flooding that happened in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, in 2008.

The Cedar River peaked at something like FIFTEEN FEET HIGHER than it had ever been previously recorded. The city is still recovering.
 
  • #50
Moo...I checked the windy.com site for rain accumulation. Looks like it rained heavy elsewhere and this was run off....moo
 
  • #51
HoneyBunOne said:
Thanks for answering, I was worried I'd be jumped on and attacked for asking. In this case, it's even more heartbreaking. I think. It's horrible either way. I guess by the time it was deemed too dangerous it would have been too late to enact an evacuation plan. Just devastating.
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The Mayor or City Manager of Kerrville spoke at the Pressor - he commented that he went for a run at 3:00 AM, it was lightly raining at that time. By 5:00 AM, he said the lower portion of a park was under water. It sounds like it happened very quickly.

But it's the job of local & state emergency services to proactively alert & issue warnings. I'm giving these officals a hard side eye, but waiting for more specific weather information to come out. Right now, it's about search & rescue, and unfortunately recovery.
 
  • #52
kuromiiiilove said:
From what I heard from the recent press conference, forecasts did not accurately reflect how much rain was coming.
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Yes they did. The models at 00z last night indicated the potential, weather balloon data from Del Rio collected late last night did, (I want to emphasize how important these are with forecasting these type of flash flooding events), and the NWS did issue watches and warnings ahead of time.
 
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1751686509184.webp


National Water Prediction Service - NOAA

water.noaa.gov water.noaa.gov

Flood stage is 9 Ft, peak flow in Kerrville was 23.40 ft!!!
 
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Moo..the powers that be, do not start evacuating until the flooding starts. Flash flooding is as unpredictable as tornadoes and earthquakes. This flood happened so fast, sadly....moo
 
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