TX TX-Hunt, Overnight flooding at Camp Mystic, all girls camp. Unknown number of missing. July 4, 2025

[AngTxGal]

I feel the expansion and the appeal to FEMA was a way to keep the camp going after the family incurred legal bills in excess of the value of the Camp Mystic.

Of course, he cared about the children and wanted to keep the camp going. Otherwise, he would have sold the camp to the guy who wanted to purchase it.

All parents had to sign a 1300 word liability waiver, waiving their right to sue the camp, even in cases of death, except in cases of gross negligence. I'm not very versed in these things. I kinda feel like knowingly building in a floodway and not relocating cabins that were previously flooded might be grounds, but I don't know....

There are lots of people who care. There are lots of people who "care too much" and get themselves in situations that over their heads etc.


Camp Mystic did not evacuate kids immediately when warned of 'life threatening' flood

If there was negligence of any kind it will come forward- Texas state level politicians had their daughters at Camp Mystic during this flooding event. One had two daughters at Camp Mystic that week- older girls. August Pfluger Interview
All of the girls were traumatized- and their parents will want to prevent such events in the future.
Imagine being a state level politician who could have access to information and decisions to prevent the loss of life- and your daughter/s evacuated in time.
Now imagine how many people are contacting those politicians- demanding change.

We will see how this plays out in time, it is far from over.

IMO

 

[Herat]

If there was negligence of any kind it will come forward- Texas state level politicians had their daughters at Camp Mystic during this flooding event. One had two daughters at Camp Mystic that week- older girls.
All of the girls were traumatized- and their parents will want to prevent such events in the future.
Imagine being a state level politician who could have access to information and decisions to prevent the loss of life- and your daughter/s evacuated in time.
Now imagine how many people are contacting those politicians- demanding change.

We will see how this plays out in time, it is far from over.

IMO

I truly wish that safety standards for all camps, as well as far more rigorous and widespread emergency monitoring and communications for all these communities would be the result of this tragedy, but I'm not hopeful.

 

[AngTxGal]

I truly wish that safety standards for all camps, as well as far more rigorous and widespread emergency monitoring and communications for all these communities would be the result of this tragedy, but I'm not hopeful.

Texas is a Republican state that believes in small government- not a bigger all knowing over regulating state or federal government.
We have to remember there were 19 children and two teachers who died in the shooting at Uvalde, Tx and Texas still doesn’t support gun control regulations. And then we have the border issue, unstopped illegal immigration, and all of that insanity that has been here all my life.

So, as a Texan I am hopeful the issue of flooding at children’s camps will be addressed- and decisions and funding be put into preventing future loss of life.
Do I think all of these camps will be forced to meet some all encompassing safety standards? No. State government will not regulate these camps in a way that could force historical camps to go out of business. That would not be popular or welcomed- in this Republican small government state.

The feel of Texans regarding the issue of the flooding and these camps and campgrounds is very different than those in the media and reporting from outside the state. I find it interesting how supportive people here are of campgrounds, children’s camps, and those who live along the rivers. It is the opposite of the feel of those who want to punish the directors, campground owners, and blame the people who built homes or businesses along the rivers. Many have said it should be against the law for people to build along rivers and rebuild after floods.
That view is completely opposite of the view here. The rebuilding has already started- roads are being redone, bridges have been built, structures are going up. It isn’t a matter of if- it is happening.

Change will come from Texans and patrons who send their kids to these camps, and camp at these campgrounds. Patrons are paying attention now- they are now abundantly aware of floods as a risk. They will ask for refunds unless their demands for future safety are met. Parents and campers can make these camps and campgrounds go out of business.
That is how it will work here- the communities and patrons will lobby to make changes that work for all. If the public isn’t satisfied- parents will find other safer camps for their $, and campers will find other places to camp.

IMO
Heartbroken

 

[Teche]

Yes, they have a residence at the camp.

I thought at the beginning, Mr. Eastland drove from his house to Camp Misty to aid in the evacuation.

 

[Jade]

I was driving down this canyon in the Colorado Rockies by this little stream years ago and there were several signs alongside the road saying that if you see any rushing water to climb as far and fast as you can. I don't think a wall of water ever rushed down the Guadelupe before. No one was expecting the water to rise so fast with such force. So tragically sad that so many children and adults perished.

A wall is a characteristic of flash flooding of which the Guadeloupe has had many. Its in "Flash Flood Alley"

Flash flooding occurs because when the storm water slides down the hydrophobic terrain its leading edge is impeded and moves slower than the water behind. The effect is a build up like a wave when the water gets to a point it hits in a "flash" usually with debris in the wave or "wall of water".

A flash flood can be classified as a wave, with an onset, crest and recession described in the following stages:

Wavefront: As the flash flood runoff arrives in a creek basin, it tends to develop a 'wavefront' or leading edge that travels down the creek. This wave can travel at anywhere from a walking to faster than a running pace, depending on the curvature of the creek bed and number of obstacles (rocks, logs) in the basin. The wavefront causes a rapid rise in the water level and an increase in flow rate in a short period of time, from a few inches to more than two feet, sometimes in mere seconds! The first wave can be the most dangerous, catching fishermen and swimmers by surprise. Wavefronts can range from a subtle surge in water level to an actual 'wave' or 'wall of water' anywhere from inches to feet high - the latter being the most dangerous.

Steady rise and crest: After the initial surge of the wavefront arrives, the water will continue to rise at a slower rate until the crest of the wave is reached, which can take anywhere from minutes to hours.

Secondary waves: There will be a wave for each upstream tributary/ditch/water source that empties into the creek, resulting in a multiple-stage water rise downstream that an observer must be wary of. This means that before the crest of the first wave arrives, additional wavefronts may arrive, causing additional rapid surges in the water level at any time. In some cases, secondary waves can be larger and more dangerous than the first!

Recession: Water levels will recede gradually after the crest of the last wave arrives. The observer must still be wary of waves from watersheds far upstream.

Introduction to Flash Flood Waves

The very features that draw people to Texas Hill Country — hills, multiple rivers and rocky terrain ideal for fishing or camping under starry skies — also make it one of the most flood-prone areas in the country.

The Balcones Escarpment, a major geological feature that cuts across Central Texas, makes for dramatic views and elevation changes in the area. But it can also lead storms to stall and dump heavy rain, as was the case when leftover moisture from Tropical Storm Barry intensified the storms that caused the flash floods.

And when storms roll in, water rushes downhill fast, gaining speed and force as it moves. There’s little to slow it down — thin, rocky soil doesn’t absorb much water, and exposed bedrock and sparse vegetation offer no buffer. Clay-rich soils in parts of the region also prevent infiltration, meaning rain turns to runoff almost immediately.

Between 2 and 7 a.m. on July 4, the Guadalupe River in Kerrville rose 35 feet, according to a flood gauge in the area.

Hydrologists say it’s a “recipe for catastrophic floods” that has merited the area the nickname of “flash flood alley” and has led to about 30 major flooding events of 20 feet or more in the cities of Kerrville, Hunt and Comfort since 1966.

Read more about the history of flooding in the area.
Texas Hill Country floods: What we know so far

The region has a history drenched in loss, marked by some of the state’s most deadly floods:
Hills, rivers and rocky terrain: Why the Hill Country keeps flooding

They did expect the water to rise dangerously a watch then a warning was issued:

Ahead of the devastation, the National Weather Service on Thursday afternoon issued a flood watch — a threat designation that means the conditions are present for a flood to happen — for Kerr County.

At 1:14 a.m., federal forecasters escalated that announcement to a flood warning, a signal that flooding is happening or is imminent. It was sent out three hours and 21 minutes before the first flooding reports came in from low-lying water crossings in the area.

Texas Hill Country floods: What we know so far



all imo

 

[AngTxGal]

I was driving down this canyon in the Colorado Rockies by this little stream years ago and there were several signs alongside the road saying that if you see any rushing water to climb as far and fast as you can. I don't think a wall of water ever rushed down the Guadelupe before. No one was expecting the water to rise so fast with such force. So tragically sad that so many children and adults perished.

Exactly, no one was expecting this amount of water to be present in these tributaries to the Guadalupe and consistently falling as rain at the same time.
But- the lack of expectation and the lack of warning are two different things.
We know the area has flash floods- so people should be warned if the conditions are such that a flash flood could occur- so they can evacuate and be safe.

If all of the people had been warned and evacuated in time- the destruction would still be the same- but the loss of life would be much less. That is what SHOULD have happened and it did not.
It is clear change needs to take place- and this tragedy will demand that it does.

We are seeing unprecedented storms all over the state, and flooding in other parts of the country. At some point we have to realize- this is exactly what scientists predicted in the 1980s would happen due to Climate Change.
We may be seeing a new normal, and we better adjust quick.

IMO
Heartbroken

 

[Friday Fan]

I thought at the beginning, Mr. Eastland drove from his house to Camp Misty to aid in the evacuation.

No

He was already at Camp Mystic along with his wife, son and other family members They probably resided in another part of the camp. I know he drove around the cabins trying to rescue the girls.

He got on the walkie talkies with family members after receiving the NWS alert.

They were already onsite.


Camp Mystic did not evacuate kids immediately when warned of 'life threatening' flood

 

[Skigh]

Fresh agony for family of Camp Mystic girl swept away in floods

Single parent McLeod McCrory, 50, has shared notes her daughter Blakely, eight, penned during her final days at the doomed Christian camp for girls in Hunt, Kerr County.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Friday Fan]

Retired KSAT meteorologist Steve Browne posted about the potential several days prior on June 30th. He warned potential campers that it could be a repeat of 2002.

Then at 1 pm on July 3rd he posted about a potential "rain bomb", with the worst effects happening at night. The July 3rd weather balloon at Del Rio showed a saturated atmosphere up the 45,000 ft!

He also discusses how computer models have difficulty with these events.

When he was on the air, I always tuned into his reports. He always explained things. Nowadays, I see more reporting (facts and stats and jumping all over the map) than analysis.

Meteorologist Steve Browne

Meteorologist Steve Browne. 61,703 likes · 18 talking about this. I have been very fortunate to make a career in a field I have always enjoyed. In third grade my teacher asked the class what they...

www.facebook.com

 

[AngTxGal]

Unfortunately,
NATURE does NOT redraw its zones.

JMO

Actually nature does redraw its flood zones, and rivers move and widen and they remove soil from upstream and take it down stream making rivers change their patterns.

We are hearing stories about 25+ feet of soil where cars are completely buried and having to be excavated as part of the recovery missions.
That soil came from somewhere upstream- as did trees and rocks and other items that were carried in the water.
The Guadalupe is now changed- and it places the river bottom is now 25-30 feet higher.
And that river is about 250 miles long with multiple dams along the route.

So, yes, nature does redraw its zones. And the man made zones no longer fit as well when it does.
To me that is part of the problem- we humans are so arrogant we think we can predict and control and know. Actually we will always be lacking- as a river system is complicated. And then there is climate change.
So we must be prudent and honest about our limitations.

IMO

 

[Friday Fan]

Actually nature does redraw its flood zones, and rivers move and widen and they remove soil from upstream and take it down stream making rivers change their patterns.

We are hearing stories about 25+ feet of soil where cars are completely buried and having to be excavated as part of the recovery missions.
That soil came from somewhere upstream- as did trees and rocks and other items that were carried in the water.
The Guadalupe is now changed- and it places the river bottom is now 25-30 feet higher.
And that river is about 250 miles long with multiple dams along the route.

So, yes, nature does redraw its zones. And the man made zones no longer fit as well when it does.
To me that is part of the problem- we humans are so arrogant we think we can predict and control and know. Actually we will always be lacking- as a river system is complicated. And then there is climate change.
So we must be prudent and honest about our limitations.

IMO

I'm afraid flooding is going to be worse. All the lost vegetation, excavation and unpredictable climate (drought/rain) are going to be contributing factors.

It has been 22 years since the last major flood on this basin. That's a long time for a region that experiences major floods about every 5-10 years. People's memories are short.

Heck, all I've known several decades is drought, water restrictions. Heat and drought makes one forget about rain fairly quickly.

 

[303gmf]

I was driving down this canyon in the Colorado Rockies by this little stream years ago and there were several signs alongside the road saying that if you see any rushing water to climb as far and fast as you can. I don't think a wall of water ever rushed down the Guadelupe before. No one was expecting the water to rise so fast with such force. So tragically sad that so many children and adults perished.

Those signs are up in many Colo canyons but not prior to the Big Thompson canyon flood of 1976. 144 deaths
Climbing uphill to safety would have saved more

 

[Jade]

Retired KSAT meteorologist Steve Browne posted about the potential several days prior on June 30th. He warned potential campers that it could be a repeat of 2002.

Then at 1 pm on July 3rd he posted about a potential "rain bomb", with the worst effects happening at night. The July 3rd weather balloon at Del Rio showed a saturated atmosphere up the 45,000 ft!

He also discusses how computer models have difficulty with these events.

When he was on the air, I always tuned into his reports. He always explained things. Nowadays, I see more reporting (facts and stats and jumping all over the map) than analysis.

Meteorologist Steve Browne

Meteorologist Steve Browne. 61,703 likes · 18 talking about this. I have been very fortunate to make a career in a field I have always enjoyed. In third grade my teacher asked the class what they...

www.facebook.com

View attachment 602045
View attachment 602046

Thanks for this informative post and the clipped excerpts.
I'd been wondering what the meteorologists had been talking about leading up to the 4th.

 

[knla]

Those signs are up in many Colo canyons but not prior to the Big Thompson canyon flood of 1976. 144 deaths
Climbing uphill to safety would have saved more

I assumed there must have been an incidence that prompted the placement of the warnings in the Colorado canyon I was driving in. I found a PBS documentary video of the Big Thompson canyon flood of 1976. Water rose rapidly. Not much warning. I don't have time to watch it all because I have to get ready for that system in the Gulf.

 

[303gmf]

I assumed there must have been an incidence that prompted the placement of the warnings in the Colorado canyon I was driving in. I found a PBS documentary video of the Big Thompson canyon flood of 1976. Water rose rapidly. Not much warning. I don't have time to watch it all because I have to get ready for that system in the Gulf.

A thunderstorm stalled above Estes Park, a wall of water took out cabins and motels and cars trying to drive downhill. One of Colorados most deadly floods

 

[AngTxGal]

Sadly, it wouldn't have really changed anything but his insurance rates.

Maybe, maybe not as the water flooded and carried away structures that were not within the 100yr floodplain. The footage is unreal, as is the recoveries still taking place.
What was needed was early warnings, with a plan, roads above water, and dry transportation out of there for every one of those kids.

I wonder what plans were in place and if counselors practiced what to do and where to go. Did the girls have training as to what to do.
Still sobbing when I think of all of those 8 yr old girls awakened to rising water in the middle of the night, likely their first time to be that far away from home at camp. It is the sights and sounds of nightmares.
Hoping all of the survivors and families are taking advantage of counseling provided.

The death toll is still rising, and flood watches for the area are in place currently.
IMO
Heartbroken

 

[wendybtn]

I am in a very controversial minority, but I see no issue with camp cabins being in the floodplain*. The issue is obviously the lack of emergency preparedness and evacuation implementation. As soon as the first warning went out, those youngest girls should have been the first of all of them evacuated.

This camp failed these girls and families. You cannot play with other peoples' lives. All property owners and managers take on the legal responsibility to get their charges to safety. Even 'thousand year' floods. If it looks like rain, you move. The property owners who are still alive who failed in this should be in jail right now IMO, and sued civilly for any money they might have left. Zero mercy.

* the reason I feel this way is because most of the time, there is 0% chance of flooding. Zero! Not some, not a little, but literal zero. I can't stress that enough. And when there is a >0% chance of flooding, there is ample ample warning, and it should be heeded.

I'm a Central Texan and a river rat, and would not hesitate to camp on any of these rivers. I've also been in a Guadalupe River campground flood (1995?, River Rd, New Braunfels side of the dam), albeit obviously not like this, and lost all our possessions. We evacuated but I will admit, in our youth and stupidity, not soon enough. I take responsibility for that.

I learned from my parents when I was 14 never to buy land or a home in a flood plain. I have never deviated from that and never been flooded. If the land is cheap, find out why.

 

[wendybtn]

Thank you @SimplyCass for the article.

A subscription to WSJ is a bit too rich for my blood.

$5 a month online subscription.

 

[AngTxGal]

I'm afraid flooding is going to be worse. All the lost vegetation, excavation and unpredictable climate (drought/rain) are going to be contributing factors.

It has been 22 years since the last major flood on this basin. That's a long time for a region that experiences major floods about every 5-10 years. People's memories are short.

Heck, all I've known several decades is drought, water restrictions. Heat and drought makes one forget about rain fairly quickly.

Agree, nature is not pausing water and rainfall while survivors find missing lost loved ones.
The task of recovery is daunting- divers are above the multiple feet of sediment that has settled and the trees and debris on top of that- and then the water is as murky as chocolate milk.
It is sickening, my thoughts are with those divers

Memories are short- but this tragedy is getting attention likely due to the loss of so many children. I see it on the news every single day with updates and information for survivors, victims services, asking for volunteers and divers, showing stories of hope.
I cannot imagine anyone in the state who either doesn’t know someone personally or doesn’t know someone who knows someone who has lost a loved one. So many lives impacted
Emotionally it all is a toll, I’m glad schools are out so children can process at home with family.

IMO
Heartbreaking

 

[steeltowngirl]

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0LQ8k1ghjzWqq2ec3XJ2eDg2ioxVA5Zh3sN1zNmKX5jQ9qS7amRP6khwGqy8uD4ETl&id=61550224296208