Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[GTB72]

Yes. It was mentioned upthread.

 

[MrsWatson]

I always assumed there are academic experts on water flows and all the science involved in that- I imagine police would have consulted such experts to understand feasibility/timings etc. based on the relevant natural forces alone- there is certainly some science/relevant calculations that can be made to make a pretty strong working assumption/hypothesis. I would be extremely surprised if the police don’t have such expert analysis/input and the fact they haven’t ruled that out means that potentially the expert advice is suggesting, yes, it is “scientifically” possible that sadly a human can fall into river and not have surfaced/been found yet.

This is a very tricky case as of course, despite being the most likely turn of events, there is no supporting evidence.

During the last press conference, the Supt listed some of the many different teams involved.

We remain very grateful to all of our partners and the wider community for the help they've given. In particular, and I've mentioned some of these in the past, this includes His Majesty's Coast Guard, Lancashire Fire Rescue, Lancaster area and Bowland Mountain Rescue, other forces and national experts in different fields, as well as the Specialist Group International or SGI, who have offered their assistance to the family, free of charge, and have been working under the direction of our local police search teams, to help us.

Transcript

 

[EyeSpyU]

I always assumed there are academic experts on water flows and all the science involved in that- I imagine police would have consulted such experts to understand feasibility/timings etc. based on the relevant natural forces alone- there is certainly some science/relevant calculations that can be made to make a pretty strong working assumption/hypothesis. I would be extremely surprised if the police don’t have such expert analysis/input and the fact they haven’t ruled that out means that potentially the expert advice is suggesting, yes, it is “scientifically” possible that sadly a human can fall into river and not have surfaced/been found yet.

This is a very tricky case as of course, despite being the most likely turn of events, there is no supporting evidence.

That’s absolutely true.

Some drowned victims can take weeks, even months, before resurfacing - and often resurface miles away from where they drowned. The firefighter who drowned in the river in Lewes a couple of years ago wasn’t found for about a month, and he resurfaced where the river met the sea.

I remember an RNLI chief predicting where he’d probably be found. He was spot on. I wonder if the police have have contacted them for assistance? They really know their onions and know exactly how the rivers and sea ebb and flow and how far bidies can travel, even down to where they’ll probably resurface.

 

[IKnowNowt]

I think they think she may have ended in the sea if she exited the fields and then entered the river from a different point. If that makes sense... That's my understanding.

Just for comparison, there was a case in 2019 of a lady from Preston, Brenda Wignall, being swept out to the Irish sea. She was found on South Walney nature reserve, Barrow, in Cumbria a week later. She entered the river Ribble, a much faster tidal river than the Wyre, with the 3rd highest tides in England. The Wyre, also Preston area, is a much slower meandering river.

Police find body in search for missing woman Brenda Wignall

A woman’s body has been found at South Walney Nature Reserve in Barrow

www.lancs.live

 

[acutename]

That was my thoughts on why it was going back and forth bench to gate. The dog is USED to that sequence of events. If she normally stops around the bench to put the harness on then head to the gate Willow would be like-where did she go!? This is the part I get my harness and we go through the gate. She may run back and forth trying to bring Nicola into the picture
Dogs generally arent smart enough to pickup on a wrench being thrown in the works and think independently from patterns, like humans. They are trained based on repetition.

I am not sure that the dog would not have followed her into the water if he saw her go in- but if he was off running in the field, he also could have missed what happened

 

[flowerpot]

The section of the river close to the bench has been thoroughly searched and she has not been found. It is likely that she is further downstream somewhere.

Sorry I meant on land in the field next to the bench (trying to find the photo I was looking at that shows where I mean…) I don’t doubt the river searches done by LP and PF that have cleared that area. I agree it is likely she’s further downstream or possibly even reached the estuary/bay.
There was a case not too long ago of the young lad that went into the Derwent - different river and faster flowing but has several weirs and he was carried out to sea quite quickly from the searches that were done. He was recovered by a dredger crew over a month later

Coroner 'desperately sorry' as inquest hears about 'mystery' of man's tragic death

A MUCH-loved son and brother was found dead by a dredger crew after going into a river near Workington and being carried out to sea.

www.newsandstar.co.uk

 

[kittythehare]

There are two high tides each day, so I'm assuming he took the photo of his grounded boat at high tide to show a body couldn't pass by, because if he did it at low tide then that would be misleading. As for the monthly cycle and Jan 27, and when the photo was taken ... I was thinking of giving that a miss ..

Cops are not there for no reason..they spent a lot of time diving that site.. and they have expert advice... he wrote it off before he even saw it

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

'Seemingly at odds with police, Mr Faulding previously said it was unlikely that Nicola was in the fast flowing River Wyre - adding that it was 'impossible' for the 45-year-old to have made it to the sea. 'For Nicola to get out to sea would be impossible, literally, it's such a long way in the 11 days. It's an awful long way down,' Mr Faulding said.

However, The Times reports that he told the newspaper it was in fact possible her body could have reached the sea by now due to the river's meandering course.'

same link as before Expert diver dramatically ends river search for Nicola Bulley

As I predicted, she will hopefully be found tomorrow in the sea, I think this will happen too. Of course this would be tragic but it is what I expect and may bring some peace and closure. My feeling was he would say, after a time working on the project, what was definitely NOT feasible, previously, now just might be.

Look at his early confidence, no WAY she could travel from the 'shallow end' by the bench etc to the sea, and over the weir, etc.

I do hope so as, well, her poor family and little girls, not to mention things could take a dangerous and very ugly turn with all the finger pointing, etc. Resolution is needed.

 

[kittythehare]

She was last spotted on the upper field who said she was sat on the bench??

Phone journey to bench was tracked. Timed. printed.

 

[russeverton]

I believe she was sat on the bench as that was the area where Willow was found.

Secondly, why and how could an abductor take NB from the upper field and then quickly place her phone on the bench - all within minutes - whilst holding NB captive before hauling her out the fields?

And how would they know that just that one CCTV camera wasn’t working?

I can’t see that at all…

Minutes?? What about the 9.30 to 10.50 gap where the dog was tied up to a bench with string and no witnesses around?? Maybe it was well planned? Like a lot of abductions? Weeks months of planning. Well ok why are they looking in a river when there is zero evidence and zero indication that 1. She fell in there 2. Was even anywhere near there

Phone journey to bench was tracked. Timed. printed.

Not doubting that at all. Who's to say nb was carrying it there though ?

 

[Willowy]

Might sound a bit random but would it be feasible (or at all useful) to place something in the river and trace it's movement with the current? Might give investigators an idea of how that stretch of river transports objects? Could lead them to some potential search sites?

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

I don't think it does, and I couldn't find anything to back up the posters claims/implications from the police pressers. I think I know what the poster was getting at, but I'm not going to engage with that unless I see some police "reference" around it.

Back to post one of the articles I mentioned, shortly. Hopefully ok with a direct link. Very hard to find the earliest videos and articles posted, as others must have found too (?)

 

[kiwi50]

I didn’t realise the abandoned home was so close to the bench, albeit on the other side of river.
Lucky the owner happened to be there, when the searchers were lokking on the first day, and had a quick look inside for them…

'Abandoned' home near where missing Nicola Bulley's phone found searched

'The abandoned house is right opposite the bench on the other side of the river, over a 10ft garden wall. It’s quite posh'

www.lancs.live

 

[Belleville]

I did see this video too and I also struggled to find the link for it. He also looks directly down over in to the river where you can see the stones. I would be grateful if you could share the link should you manage to find it.

Exploring with Dan, on tiktok.

 

[Belleville]

Exploring with Dan, on tiktok.

 

[wackyw]

I always assumed there are academic experts on water flows and all the science involved in that- I imagine police would have consulted such experts to understand feasibility/timings etc. based on the relevant natural forces alone- there is certainly some science/relevant calculations that can be made to make a pretty strong working assumption/hypothesis. I would be extremely surprised if the police don’t have such expert analysis/input and the fact they haven’t ruled that out means that potentially the expert advice is suggesting, yes, it is “scientifically” possible that sadly a human can fall into river and not have surfaced/been found yet.

This is a very tricky case as of course, despite being the most likely turn of events, there is no supporting evidence.

It's a river has received a lot of professional attention over many years now, and is closely measured/monitored with emphasis on flooding rather than human bodies, but you get the idea ...

PS - someone posted this ... or similar .. earlier

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/293706/Wyre_Catchment_Flood_Management_Plan.pdf

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

This is where I am baffled. Why didn't SGI go the distance?

Because, IMO, he had the context. What was at first impossible, according to PF, could now happen at a push, therefore, possibly...

Nicola will likely, and sadly of course, be found very soon in the sea. I hope, if so, it brings peace and closure as things could get very difficult indeed. I think the police have done a very good job in horrendously difficult circumstances and possibly found themselves between a rock and a hard place.

 

[EyeSpyU]

Cops are not there for no reason..they spent a lot of time diving that site.. and they have expert advice... he wrote it off before he even saw it

I must say, I was surprised how he frequently changed his tune.

One minute he was saying she definitely was not in that stretch of river ( well, everyone knew that as it had been searched already).

Then the next day he said he believed she was in the river.

He finalised it with saying he was baffled, but in every single broadcast he said the same thing over and over “ I’ve been doing this for 20 years and have searched for hundreds of people and with my special sonar which I was the first to bring into the country, and which costs £55k, plus my highly experiences team, we always find bodies if they’re there”.

Well, yes, he would do - if the bodies are there - and haven’t gone upstream/downstream. NB disappeared almost two weeks ago now, so if she did fall into the river her body wouldn’t be in that stretch. I’m not sure why he searched that part, anyway, considering the police divers searched it the very first day.

 

[kittythehare]

Minutes?? What about the 9.30 to 10.50 gap where the dog was tied up to a bench with string and no witnesses around?? Maybe it was well planned? Like a lot of abductions? Weeks months of planning. Well ok why are they looking in a river when there is zero evidence and zero indication that 1. She fell in there 2. Was even anywhere near there

Not doubting that at all. Who's to say nb was carrying it there though ?

That is after the event.
The walk 9.10-9.20 phone at bench 9.20
Due to log out of team meet 9.30.
That did not happen.
First witness arrives 9.33

Police timeline has never changed.
The significant window remains at 9.20-9.30.

The rest is witnesses who arrived after the event. LE are protecting them and rightly so.
Their actions do not change the time of the 'event'

 

[Lady Stoddart-West]

They would need the device to get the data

They have access to her all phone data, and are privy to the last work call, her (re ?) negotiation of her mortgage, her last email to her boss, and her meeting with her boss the day before. They will have built up a profile.