Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

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  • #881
  • #882
Double post
well, looking at the list, the possibilities are endless. But to speculate, it could be Fraud or money laundering. I don't think it would be kidnap as no ransom has been mentioned.

MOO
 
  • #883
The NCA website doesn't state anything about dealing with missing persons cases, but it does state that they deal with fraud.
I notice they deal with kidnap too.
As of now, it is a missing person case only, typically co-ordinated by the local police.
I wonder why the NCA have been called in then to look over the case? JMO.

ETA - just seen your message about assisting with police investigations.
 
  • #884
  • #885
The NCA website doesn't state anything about dealing with missing persons cases, but it does state that they deal with fraud.

'Our Missing Persons Unit is the UK national and international point of contact for all missing person and unidentified body cases. We're the only UK agency focused exclusively on missing people'



 
  • #886
good to have you here

yes it's tidal from the weir and how many low tides have there been since she disappeared?
I've heard that the tide can really pull heavy items out of that estuary. ( Weirs not far from the bench, 100 yards or so)
Thank you, that is very kind. I have to say what a refreshingly nice place this is to share opinions and experiences online - a full credit to all the users here.

The weir itself there is an Open Weir, meaning something like a body could be washed over the top of it without being caught up, as they could be on a Closed Weir.
 
  • #887
well, looking at the list, the possibilities are endless. But to speculate, it could be Fraud or money laundering. I don't think it would be kidnap as no ransom has been mentioned.

MOO

It could be, or it could be their missing persons unit. JMO but I wouldn't read into their involvement any further than they have experts, resources and capabilities that police forces can tap into for a wide variety of things, including a missing person.
 
  • #888
As fun as all of these ideas sound, surely the most likely thing to have happened was that she was sat on the bench, engrossed in her phone/ meeting, and chose to have a closer look at the river, falling in for any number of reasons.
The lead, phone and dry dog explains so much, and just make other possibilities so much less likely
If someone had come by, I doubt she would have left her phone, it's the first thing people reach for. However, if she was looking for her dog which had gone out of sight, I can see why she would leave it on the bench on the call while she checks the river, or even just having a look while the meeting didn't concern her.
If she had left on foot the dog would be difficult to stop from following, not to mention the cctv coverage appears to be strong, it's clearly a fairly busy location, her stuff was fairly far away from any vehicles, someone else being involved just doesn't seem particularly plausible, especially without evidence.
It's proven that the river has the power to move a body at least 7 miles over that exact stretch as shown by the previous case.
I really don't see much evidence against those theories, she could fall in with absolutely no trace of falling in, the lack of evidence of that isn't a big red flag to me. She could fall in without the dog realising, or the dog could choose not to enter the water.

I think the police are correct, given the limited evidence, to be putting the most resources into the theory that she fell in to the river, with no others involved, I'm sure they're also putting time into other theories, but some of the ideas on here are so implausible. It's nice to play out the ideas, but accusing witnesses when it's just so improbable seems a bit far, the police will have treated everyone involved with suspicion until they're able to verify their alibi's

It seems like some on here see any evidence and before thinking it through jump to a conclusion
They've jumped on the OH, over absolutely anything, the house has CCTV and he was working, there's no way the police haven't thoroughly checked his alibi.

The person who tied up the dog, the rope has been questioned, but again, it could have just been laying around, it's not in and of itself an indication of something bad, again, the police can and probably have checked out the appointment - we will never hear people's alibi's, its an invasion of privacy to share what people are doing

The similar looking family friend, her boss, the google maps guy, the list goes on, but all the theories are so easy to check out and the police will have already looked into all of these people, because they probably take about 10 minutes each to rule out

The fact that she hasn't been found doesn't mean someone else was involved, the bench is meter's from a weir, after which the river is intertidal, making tracking a body extremely difficult, the one from years back took months to appear, the sad truth is that the most likely scenario is she will be found at a later date possibly after the search is called off, and we'll always have questions about how it happened

That's not to say there isn't foul play, just that, it's unlikely and there's nothing to yet lead anyone to believe anyone else was involved

I agree with the sentiment but I think we still have to appreciate based on the evidence we have the theory that she entered the river an extremely bizarre turn of events. Of course there's reasons why she could have been at the river's edge but then I could equally argue the opposite, why would you go to the water on a cold day like that, there's not much to see, you have a good vantage point of the river from the bench to see if the dog was in or down by the river, the first instinct would be in the open field. What's puzzling for me is when you put it all together, going to the water's edge, falling in, falling in whereby you leave no trace on the bank, falling in but not being able to get out when it was only waist deep at the bank, no sign of the body when the witness reached the bench, very slow flow to the river (the other story was when it was flooding I believe), divers on the scene very quickly, the weir, the shallow rocky part over the weir, dog didn't enter water, no sign of anything on the sonar.

Now all of these things are possible and it's the probably most likely explanation but that sequence of events is very hard to comprehend to the point where we have to give serious consideration to 3rd party involvement.

But perhaps the police have something more to believe differently
 
  • #889
This case is making me question in general how police marine body recovery works. Would have thought there'd be a way they could ensure the body does not enter the sea. Cameras, nets, whatever, I dunno? Even on a working river there must be a shallow point where something could be set up when they're actively searching for an individual. It's so devastating for the family if a body is never found.
 
  • #890
Yes, I know, I used to work for them :)

As of now, this is not a criminal investigation. However, sometimes resorces from places like the NCA can be used to assist in large scale missing persons cases. Each case is different.
Would the NCA be called in to investigage any suspicious aspect of a case within their remit even if the potential for a criminal case hasn't been made public ?
 
  • #891
good to have you here

yes it's tidal from the weir and how many low tides have there been since she disappeared?
I've heard that the tide can really pull heavy items out of that estuary. ( Weirs not far from the bench, 100 yards or so)
The Sonar expert monitored a log and gave a description of the logs movement, he doesn't believe it's possible for her to have reached the sea.
 
  • #892
The NCA website doesn't state anything about dealing with missing persons cases, but it does state that they deal with fraud.
Missing persons


Missing persons​

Our Missing Persons Unit is the UK national and international point of contact for all missing person and unidentified body cases. We're the only UK agency focused exclusively on missing people. We serve all UK police forces as well as overseas police agencies.
 
  • #893
Would the NCA be called in to investigage any suspicious aspect of a case within their remit even if the potential for a criminal case hasn't been made public ?

There's no grey area really, it's either a criminal investigation or a missing person case. Use of (very expenisive) resources have to be justified at every stage.
 
  • #894
'Our Missing Persons Unit is the UK national and international point of contact for all missing person and unidentified body cases. We're the only UK agency focused exclusively on missing people'



In relation to 'what we investigate' surely ? Kidnap/extortion/fraud ?
 
  • #895
The National Crime Agency had also looked at the investigation by Lancashire Police and had also failed to identify any other suspicious line of inquiry, she said.

 
  • #896
It's proven that the river has the power to move a body at least 7 miles over that exact stretch as shown by the previous case.

If you are referring to the one from 45 years ago, the poor lad fell into a river in flood. A totally different scenario from now.

This is the river level at the bridge during the 2021 flood.

1675974710123.png


https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/flooded-villagers-desperate-pleas-fall-22321596
 
  • #897
The Sonar expert monitored a log and gave a description of the logs movement, he doesn't believe it's possible for her to have reached the sea.

yes I saw Faulding say that but haven't watched the clips of his sonar search which he'd given to the Mail.

Only problem is that Faulding said in a different interview - on the same day - that it's possible she did reach the river.


impossible:

vs
possible:
'However, The Times reports that he told the newspaper it was in fact possible her body could have reached the sea by now due to the river's meandering course.'

( mail reports what he's said to the Times here: Expert diver dramatically ends river search for Nicola Bulley
 
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  • #898
The Sonar expert monitored a log and gave a description of the logs movement, he doesn't believe it's possible for her to have reached the sea.
Maybe I missed something but it struck me that the biggest proponent of PF's expertise seems to be PF himself (who kept changing his mind). No one is infallible.
 
  • #899
Would it be normal for the NCA to be involved in this case? Or a missing persons case? Thanks.
I wonder if this is because of the media scrutiny?
 
  • #900
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