Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire) #9

[Deleted member 320164]

People who fall in rivers are frequently not found for sharing period of time. It can easily be 4+ weeks before a body is recovered and it can be significant distances away - 5+ miles.

A recent Edinburgh missing person was found 6 weeks and around 8 miles away.

Good example. And yet the police seem to think she could have covered around 11 + miles in 2 weeks.

I think it’s possible her body will turn up on the flats near Shard bridge or the estuary itself but not for a while.

 

[shinimeggie]

is it just me that finds it VERY STRANGE that Roger Jones who died on this same stretch of river went missing exactly 45 years prior, TO THE DAY.
Surely there’s some kind of link? It’s too much of a coincidence that it was exactly the same day.

It is just a coincidence.

Roger Jones died because he ended up in the river after a motorbike accident.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

yes but if you read how they've arrived at their current hypothesis, it's not just about the river being near her possessions and her dog.

media thread - transcript of the press conferences. all in there

I‘ve read the transcripts. The case they put forward is based more on belief than anything else.

 

[Awaywego]

No one seems to be considering that Nicola might actually have committed suicide...


<modsnip: no links to information stated as fact> The police seem absolutely certain she in the water and hinted at the press conference they have more evidence that points to that... could she have taken a load of pills with her from the house that morning? Left a suicide note or sent a text ?

Seems the Police know exactly why she's in the river, just with holding that evidence back from the public snd media for whatever reason

Personally, I think it's a distinct possibility but we just don't have enough information.
There are just too many unknowns around her risk profile.
Demographics-female early 40s-low risk
Presence of protective factors- kids, partner, dog parents alive- low risk
Presence of future planning -playdates/spa -low risk
Physical health- unknown
Mental health profile/previous diagnosis or high risk mh diagnosis-unknown
History of suicidality-thoughts or attempts unknown
Access to means-Unknown
(Other than being near a river, although I'd imagine completed suicide by drowning without other factors eg alcohol drugs v uncommon)
Alcohol /drug use or dependency- Unknown
Family history of completed suicide -Unknown
Home circumstances- Domestic abuse, etc unknown,
Financial issues-unknown
Recent losses unknown
Triggers-unknown

 

[Tanzanite]

What is suspicious about a red van as opposed to any other vehicle parked in the area that day? Genuinely puzzled as to its relevance.

Same. I'm just catching up with things today, and reading up on this. Except there's not really anything to read up on, as far as I can tell. A red van parked near a barn. I cannot see anything in particular that marked it out as suspicious or clocking an occupant behaving oddly, for example.

I know a person was 'worried' and contacted the police, but I'm genuinely unsure what the story is.

 

[Dowls90]

I've never seen a theory in this case that she slipped in. More like she went to the water's edge for some unknown reason and fell in. The point is - she was within 6 feet or so of that river and I agree with the police that it's the most likely scenario in the absence of any other evidence.

You did however describe it as such, suggesting she may have slipped in to evidence your point.

The hard facts are, until NB is found or some sort of evidence comes to light we will continue going round and round in circles here. There’s no evidence to suggest she went in and there’s none to suggest she didn’t.

 

[crazychris]

TV special tomorrow, 10th, at 9pm on Ch5. "Where is Nicola? A Ch.5 News Special"

In this special live programme news anchor and presenter Dan Walker explores the circumstances of Nicola Bulley's vanishing. He will speak to experts, those who know Nicola and the police. The show will raise important questions including what Nicola's Fitbit could potentially reveal? Why did she leave her phone on the bench? And how can a woman simply disappear leaving no trace?

 

[cottonweaver]

I‘ve read the transcripts. The case they put forward is based more on belief than anything else.

but you just posted that you think NB's body might be recovered from Shard Bridge, meaning that the body would have travelled around 9 miles. ( in 2 weeks)

and then you said
'And yet the police seem to think she could have covered around 11 + miles in 2 weeks.'

 

[Night Shift]

You did however describe it as such, suggesting she may have slipped in to evidence your point.

The hard facts are, until NB is found or some sort of evidence comes to light we will continue going round and round in circles here. There’s no evidence to suggest she went in and there’s none to suggest she didn’t.

You can draw whatever inferences you like from my words - but I have not suggested or implied that she slid in.

There isn't any 'going round in circles' here - the police believe the most likely scenario is that Nicola fell in and I agree with them. If you don't, that's perfect.

 

[Pharmer1908]

It is just a coincidence.

Roger Jones died because he ended up in the river after a motorbike accident.

Im not suggesting the same person is responsible, obviously but I feel sure that the date will be relevant in some way.

 

[Deleted member 320164]

His Majesty's Coast Guard,
Lancashire Fire Search Rescue ( the marine team ) ,
Lancaster area and Bowland Mountain Rescue,
RNLI
North West Underwater & marine unit

plus 'experienced experts' like this type of practical and academic researcher who spent years on a diving team- Body recovery from water study | College of Policing

Just a hunch that these organisations have pulled xxxxxx bodies out of water every year!

No reference in your post - so wasn’t clear what you were referring to. “Experienced experts” apart from bordering on tautology could mean anything.

 

[Fishwick]

Im not suggesting the same person is responsible, obviously but I feel sure that the date will be relevant in some way.

I’m struggling to even think of a hypothetical in which it could be relevant.

 

[Allabouttrial]

I've tried to keep an open mind, but I'm yet to be convinced she didn't go in the river.

Many give reasons why they believe she couldn't have gone in - no evidence among many others. Yet I've seen nothing credible to convince me there was foul play.

What's the motive? Where's the opportunity? How did someone abduct her so quietly in such a short time span? How did the perp. know the CCTV was broken to the only entry and exit point?

All her friends/family have made no mention of a stalker. Nothing to suggest her partner's involvement.

What are we left with - a rando abductor/killer, who just happened upon Nicola that day and got very lucky?

It happens, but not as often as people think, especially somewhere like Lancashire.

 

[supersleuth123]

Its easy to remain emotionally detached somewhat to these cases while youre busy thinking of all the possibilities, logisitcs, calculations etc but this evening ive just feel a real low with the realisation that its very likely she did end up going into that water.
All I can say is I hope she fainted or had some medical issue prior to going in and she didnt suffer.
And I seriously hope that bench gets removed from that part of the river and it gets partial fencing along with any other treacherous parts on that walk to deter people somewhat from getting close. That bench is an open invitation to a hellish part of the river.
My thoughts are with the family and I pray they get the chance to put Nicola to rest if it is the case.

I agree with the sentiment of how tragic and sad it is, but I'm not sure I agree the bench should be removed or fences put up. Rivers are beautiful and alluring, and so many people get untold happiness from whiling away hours sat on a bench looking at them. Tragedies unfortunately do unfold across all walks of life, but earth would be a pretty dull place if everything was in proverbial bubblewrap.

If NB did drown near that bench, I say put in a beautiful new memorial bench, so people can enjoy the spot she surely did too.

 

[rosieposie121]

I think the fact police have not allowed us to view any CCTV footage other than stills of clothing, speaks of there assurance she is in the water. Which leads me to believe they have got some evidence they are keeping onto for whatever reason..

 

[Allabouttrial]

At this rate, am tempted to invent come criminal evidence in order to make it simpler for us all.
Might confess tonight. Let you know how I get on

Baking a cake as we speak...

 

[kittythehare]

That's what I said in my post a little while ago. Something they know.

I very much doubt there is a secret aspect to this when land sea and air searches have been conducted and continue to be conducted.
police wrote to 740 drivers in an effort to collect dashcam footage or witness accounts for the morning of Jan 27.

Their water searches are widely published.

They also conducted extensive 1km searches of land including private gardens and buildings.

They have never implied or suggested they have secret information and their work proves that.

These searches are extremely expensive and resource intensive.
They are not only searching water and investigating water as the only option.
There is no secret that could lead to a missing person search with so many variants.

This is the best and most comprehensive and professional LE search I have ever witnessed in any country, it includes several police forces and a full time team of 40 detectives presently.

UK - Nicola Bulley, St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 27, 2023 *MEDIA, MAPS, & TIMELINES - NO DISCUSSION*

www.websleuths.com

 

[Fishwick]

I think the fact police have not allowed us to view any CCTV footage other than stills of clothing, speaks of there assurance she is in the water. Which leads me to believe they have got some evidence they are keeping onto for whatever reason..

People keep saying that they have some firm piece of evidence of her going into the river, but I just can’t believe that they would have 40 officers on the case (doing digital investigations, appealing for dashcam footage etc) if they knew anything for certain.

 

[Dowls90]

You can draw whatever inferences you like from my words - but I have not suggested or implied that she slid in.

There isn't any 'going round in circles' here - the police believe the most likely scenario is that Nicola fell in and I agree with them. If you don't, that's perfect.

There are in terms on the discussions going on here. We simply do not have any further information at present to progress.

The police have openly said they are keeping an open mind and are pursuing other leads in various press conferences. The most likely scenario isn’t always what has happened though. I agree it could be seen as the most likely and it may well be what has happened but I think people need to keep an open mind like the police have suggested.

 

[Seattle1]

If the river bank was indeed muddy and slippery, where are the skid marks of her entering?

No conjecture, quoting the Lancashire Supt.

Supt Sally Riley, of Lancashire Police, told The Sunday Times that officers found "no evidence of a slip or fall" near the bench where Nicola's mobile phone was found but said falling from a sheer riverbank may leave no trace.

"I think if it had been a sloping bank, a common-sense view would be that you would expect to find scuff marks," Supt Riley said.

"If it is sheer and you lose your footing, you might not have any marks left on the grass. All of that has been subjected to a detailed search."

^^rsbm