UK UK - Sarah Everard, 33, London - Clapham Common area, 3 March 2021 *Arrests* #6

[Commoner]

I was wondering the same.

I'm not sure which bit of Tulse Hill is notorious for that, but by no stretch would anyone describe Poynders Court as in Tulse Hill

 

[peterf]

That isn't what I was asking - I was asking if he has been back to work SINCE the attack and whether he had any annual leave booked off following the 3rd March.

well the night he was arrested he had arrived back from work that day if that is any use to you

 

[CutiePatootie]

Yes but I think you are referring to a passenger type ambulance private in the generic way, my mother has also travelled in these. That has never been my understanding of the term "private ambulance" that really only means one thing in the UK and it's not good and they are exactly as the user describes and you really won't want to be travelling in them.

Well that may be your understanding so we’ll have to disagree. Private ambulances transport patients in the same way that NHS ambulances do. Info below.

MET Medical | UK Private Ambulance Service

 

[89leanne89]

Forgive me if this has already been posted but in one of the previous threads regarding Sarah I'm 99% sure that a local posted about being flashed in the last week.

Am I remembering correctly?

Yes , I'm sure someone posted their friend had been flashed on the common , whilst the police were on it searching !!

 

[Evo25]

You have indeed used 50%, as your "average" uses the differential and halves it. This does not take into account the weighting of identified murderers known Vs strangers. The latter would be more accurate based on known statistics that you cited.

Thanks for clarifying, I see your point and you are right.

Your method results in an 8.2% chance of a female being murdered by a total stranger and a 91.8% chance of the victim knowing their attacker.

It suggests that SE is statistically highly likely to have known her attacker but could be one of the 8%.

 

[OrlandoJames]

Yes I suppose he could go that way. I do know this area very well. I don't know that he would have time to get from Clapham to Lordship Lane (having had to drag SE into the car) within half an hour though. But I guess it isn't impossible.

I used to live in Clapham and have driven that route many times. And yes, it would definitely be possible to get from Clapham to Lordship Lane within 20mins if the traffic is light

 

[L White]

I'm not sure which bit of Tulse Hill is notorious for that, but by no stretch would anyone describe Poynders Court as in Tulse Hill

Sorry I got my info from a news site that said she was "headed in the Tulse Hill direction".
I would also rather not post exact locations to give the women working their privacy.

 

[Deathsgrandaughter]

According to the ONS, as of March 2019 in England and Wales, the percentage of women killed by a stranger was 6%. Those are your wrong place wrong time cases.

37% of female murders actually had no suspect identified at all. It is possible they were strangers too, but it cannot be confirmed. If we assume that this entire 37% were strangers then the percentage range for stranger murder is as low as 6% up to a potential maximum of 43% if we credit all unidentified killers as strangers. This means that an average of 27% of female murders are conducted by a stranger.

The stats show that women killed by someone they knew sits in a percentage range of at least 57% and up to a potential maximum of 93% if we credit all unidentified killers as being known to the victim. This means that an average of 73% of female murders are conducted by someone they knew.

So SE was around 3 times more likely to have been murdered by someone she knew, than a stranger. It is of course entirely possible she has been murdered by a stranger, but it is significantly less likely.

Just looking at these stats in a slightly different way. Where the identity of the murderer is known, 13.95% were carried out by strangers, and the remaining 86.5% were known to the victim.
I believe that stranger murders were harder to solve, so I would suspect the proportion of victims killed in a random attack may well be higher than we realise. MOO

 

[SpursGyal]

Divers? - This is really getting grimmer by the minute.

 

[Joolz1975]

DBM.

Dont know about annual leave but he has definitely attended work since she went missing but not sure what days/shift patterns.

MSM reports he had just arrived home from work Tuesday when he was arrested (will try find link but the one I saw it was behind a pay wall - maybe it is more widely reported now).

 

[elliefant]

Yes , I'm sure someone posted their friend had been flashed on the common , whilst the police were on it searching !!

I remember this too. Was it the poster who talked about the “Ron Davies Wood” nickname on the common? I will try a search

 

[Steveparadox]

Thanks for clarifying, I see your point and you are right.

Your method results in an 8.2% chance of a female being murdered by a total stranger and a 91.8% chance of the victim knowing their attacker.

It suggests that SE is statistically highly likely to have known her attacker but could be one of the 8%.

Thanks for updating that

 

[Creamcheese]

Why would there be divers? Is there water nearby?

 

[MsMiniSleuth]

Divers? - This is really getting grimmer by the minute.

Sounds like still hunting for possessions, clothing, and maybe, dare I say, body parts?

 

[Chellbu]

There’s several women on another Forum saying WC was very active on Tinder.

Coukd he have arranged to meet someone via that and mistakenly assumed it was Sarah and so that’s how he initially approached her. They laugh it off, cringe at the awkwardness and then he turns.

 

[BrianJohnson]

Given he was a skilled marksman and both his jobs nuclear and police were firearms based it might suggest he has a fascination/love for guns so might well own a licenced shotgun or illegal firearm

Pointing a gun at SE and saying “get in the car now, scream and I will shoot” and similar while in the car might be the case here and would explain lack of any resistance/screams

 

[peterf]

There’s several women on another Forum saying WC was very active on Tinder.

which forum is this?

 

[elliefant]

I remember this too. Was it the poster who talked about the “Ron Davies Wood” nickname on the common? I will try a search

@89leanne89
@Tyzer

Yes it was, here is the post:

UK - UK - Sarah Everard, 33, London - Clapham Common area, 3 March 2021 #2

 

[Tyzer]

@89leanne89

Yes it was, here is the post:

UK - UK - Sarah Everard, 33, London - Clapham Common area, 3 March 2021 #2

That can't be a coincidence surely?

 

[MariaMac]

Looking at his prior service and the training this may have involved I think it’s quite possible he could have moved very quickly to get Sarah in car before she even had a chance to react.
From: https://www.thesun.ie/news/6682074/sarah-everard-news-wayne-couzens-murder-police-latest-live/amp/
“He was initially based at the CNC’s Dungeness site in Kent and also worked on escorts and counter-terror duties elsewhere.”