UT - Sierra Newbold, 6, abducted & murdered, West Jordan, 26 June 2012 *Arrest*

[SapphireSteel]

It will be interesting to see as I believe this case will be solved, and quickly.

The definition of "stranger" abduction also includes people vaguely known to the family, for example, distant neighbours, or the guy you see on the bus.

I suspect in this case it will be someone known to the family, vaguely at least. IMO it will be a local, and quite possibly a juvenile.

MOO.

 

[teedie2]

I wish we could honor her here with her name in the thread.

Absolutely.

 

[SuziQ]

Regardless of statistics, I am quite sure that the parents who have come to realize their worst nightmare (like the Newbolds for instance) never thought it would be their child either. So they can take very little comfort in the fact that "statistics" say the chances of it happening are low. IMO

Yes, while stranger danger is not the level of threat the media and others wants us to believe it is, it is of little meaning when it's your child who has fallen under that statistic.

The point should be made though, too many parents worry and take action to prevent something that will probably never happen to their children. And ignore the real threat of their child being abused and/or killed at the hands of someone who is not a stranger. Such as parents, significant others, grandparents, teachers. etc. We need to watch closer the people we let into our children's lives everyday. They are more of a real daily threat than strangers are.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Only those I confirm myself...which I'm about to do.

Thank you.

Ok, straight from the horse's mouth, so to speak -

FBI research revealed that 74 percent of children abducted and murdered were killed within the first 3 hours of their disappearance. To aid local law enforcement and FBI investigators in child abduction investigations, the FBI created the Child Abduction Rapid Deployment (CARD) team in 2006. Since its inception, CARD has provided field offices with the resource of additional investigators with specialized experience in child abduction matters. As of September 2011, the CARD team has assisted in the investigation of 69 child abduction cases involving 77 children. Of the 77 children, 31 were recovered alive; 11 remain missing. CARD statistics also indicated that in 70 percent of these cases, the child was abducted by an individual with a known relationship to the child. In contrast, 10 percent of abductors were registered sex offenders.

http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/p...vember-2011/crimes-against-children-spotlight

So we have 70% with a known relationship, which leaves 30% stranger abductions. Of those "stranger" abductions, often the offender is vaguely known to the family...I would guess at least 50%, maybe more. So that, in turn, leaves 15% who are absolute complete strangers...10% of which are RSO's (already known to the system). The remaining 5% is a statistically TINY amount of true, boogeyman type abductions, where someone steals a child who is completely unknown to them. I assume this tiny percentage would include those mentally ill people who steal a child for reasons OTHER than sexual, like childless women. So that would knock out say another 1%...which brings it down to 4%. Then we factor in the "baby market" where they are stolen to order....possibly another 1-2%...so now we are right down to about 2% actually being the type of "stealing a random child for sexual purposes" that some believe is on every street corner.

Of course I am just guessing the last bit, and may be way off base...even if I am, the figures still illustrate exactly how rare it is...with such a massive country as the US, so much crime and drugs and family breakdown, it's amazing it isn't higher...but there you go.

The type of person who will hunt and abduct a random child for their own sexual pleasure is a very rare beast indeed. Thank God.

 

[eileenhawkeye]

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

Even in this informative link it says 200-300 children are kidnapped by strangers yearly. So that right there shows an inconsisentcy in the reported 115 per year by strangers.

Also it clearly states a lot of the problem is that some law enforcement agencies dont even report to the government on such cases for it to be added to the statistical base. I suppose it is not mandatory that it must be reported. And another problem is for so long abductions were all lumped together and still may be done that way by some agencies that do report. And the classifications of the abduction can also be murky and confusing and is inconsistent among reporting agencies. One may call it one thing and one may call it another. Even the author of this linked information admits it is quite confusing and hard to keep up with.

But I certainly know that far more children go missing from custodial issues between the parents and are found and returned to the rightful parent. Yet, if one goes by the statistics (as some seem to put full trust in statisitics) 400 children a year are murdered by one of their bio parents. What I would like to know is how many children taken by strangers also wind up murdered?

I thought you don't believe in statistics...? Why do you disregard the "115" number that has been documented many times, yet you hold up the 200-300 number as being more accurate? And you seem to believe the "400" number for children murdered by their parents.

Yep, there are hundreds of children kidnapped by strangers every year but we don't hear about them on WS. We have threads for runaways and family abductions, but not too many where the child could have been kidnapped by a stranger. Even we assume that Kyron, Lisa, Hailey, Haleigh were all taken by strangers (LOL), it still doesn't come close to hundreds of children.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Regardless of statistics, I am quite sure that the parents who have come to realize their worst nightmare (like the Newbolds for instance) never thought it would be their child either. So they can take very little comfort in the fact that "statistics" say the chances of it happening are low. IMO

No one is in any way attacking any of the victims or parents and we wouldn't be posting on this forum at all if we didn't care about them deeply.

However, statistics are just that...cold, passionless, emotionless numbers. A parents grief, while very real and tragic, is not part of the overall picture when discussing statistics.

May I also point out that at the time of writing, the abductor of Sierra is unidentified. so cannot be counted in statistics either way.

 

[cluciano63]

It will be interesting to see as I believe this case will be solved, and quickly.

The definition of "stranger" abduction also includes people vaguely known to the family, for example, distant neighbours, or the guy you see on the bus.

I suspect in this case it will be someone known to the family, vaguely at least. IMO it will be a local, and quite possibly a juvenile.

MOO.

Why do you believe it will be solved quickly?
I thought that with Isabel's case, as well as others.
But perhaps since this child was found, there chances are better so you may be right.

 

[katydid23]

Has it been confirmed yet about the ages and gender of the older siblings. I am wondering if there were lots of older boys around, for example if she had an older brother at the home. [ NOT sleuthing the brother at all--just wondering if he played sports or something, and if older boys would have been in and around the poor child.]

My son used to play hockey and our daughter was always running into guys who recognized her from that.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Why do you believe it will be solved quickly?
I thought that with Isabel's case, as well as others.
But perhaps since this child was found, there chances are better so you may be right.

I believe Isa's case is "solved". When LE will press charges is another matter.

I believe Sierra's case will be solved quickly for the following reasons -

1. she was found quickly. This will make investigating the crime a lot easier - witness with fresh memories, evidence still in situ.

2. the dumping of her body so publicly and close to home implies to me that it is a local killer, and disorganised. He may be young as he doesn't appear to have had a place to take her to, nor means to take her. It is likely he is an RSO or has a police record of another sort that will bring him to LE's attention, or he will be suggested to police by someone who knows him.

Of course there is not enough released publicly so far to really make a judgement, but the above is my gut.

JMO!

 

[cocomod]

Plus the video surveillance gives me hope that this will be solved quickly. LE is being very quiet. It is strange that they are not begging for witnesses to come forward.

 

[BrownRice]

Does Sierra's family have a dog?

 

[SmoothOperator]

My daughter is now 20 and I was so petrified of this happening when she was born that I installed window locks and screens on all the windows - we didn't even have a proper bathroom but locks were my priority as it was the best I could do to soothe my own fears.

God can't be everywhere, thats why he invented mothers. And window locks.

We keep our kids safe by doing what you did - automatically registering a strange car - and when summer comes, you can bet you or another parent will be out there watching over them.

We have to be careful not to bring up cotton-wool kids who are scared of their own shadows. There are not monsters on every corner...I'll prove it.

Think of how many little kids are in your town/city/state.

Then times it by 10, to cover kids that were in that age in the last 10 years.

Then find the stats on how many little kids have been abducted/murdered in the last 10 years in your city/state.

Then find the stats on the perp - how many were parents/known to the child, how many were stranger abductions?

Hopefully this will calm you down somewhat as to the statistics. Our kids are much more likely to be run over and killed in their own driveways by a parent in a SUV, than abducted and murdered by a stranger.

There are opportunists (not monsters) on every street corner...but most of them, you already know. The monsters who actually do this are few and far between Thank God...and responsible parenting and simple measures will help keep them away.

Above BBM..
Yea, well tell that to Jessica Lunsfords family, Marc Klaas' family whose daughter, Polly was also stolen from her bedroom, raped and killed, or the Smart family... all of these family's were responsible, involved parents/grandparents who were doing the very best to protectively and responsibly raise their young girls.. yet monsters still plotted, schemed and planned around those families to get to what they wanted...their innocent young children.. they went to great lengths to get what they'd obsessed on and become focused on.. with both Richard Davis and David Mitchell climbing up to second floor bedrooms to break into the girls bedrooms to get what they wanted.. both bedrooms had more than just the victim in them...Polly had several girlfriends in her bedroom when Davis entered and took Polly.. Eliazabeth was actually asleep alongside her sister who witnessed Mitchell taking Elizabeth out of the bedroom window and disappearing into the night..

These three examples are just the ones off the top of my head, but sadly there are so many who are the like in that there are active, involved, caring family members that were responsibly providing and Caring for these girls.. yet predators still found there way around that obstacle to seek the prey that they were so desperately hunting..

My point is simple.. there are many families who are doing "everything they're supposed to be doing" and their child can still be stolen right from under their noses...sadly I believe this case is going to be another sad, tragic example of that.
jmo.

 

[Oblio]

Ok, straight from the horse's mouth, so to speak -

FBI research revealed that 74 percent of children abducted and murdered were killed within the first 3 hours of their disappearance. To aid local law enforcement and FBI investigators in child abduction investigations, the FBI created the Child Abduction Rapid Deployment (CARD) team in 2006. Since its inception, CARD has provided field offices with the resource of additional investigators with specialized experience in child abduction matters. As of September 2011, the CARD team has assisted in the investigation of 69 child abduction cases involving 77 children. Of the 77 children, 31 were recovered alive; 11 remain missing. CARD statistics also indicated that in 70 percent of these cases, the child was abducted by an individual with a known relationship to the child. In contrast, 10 percent of abductors were registered sex offenders.

http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/p...vember-2011/crimes-against-children-spotlight

So we have 70% with a known relationship, which leaves 30% stranger abductions. Of those "stranger" abductions, often the offender is vaguely known to the family...I would guess at least 50%, maybe more. So that, in turn, leaves 15% who are absolute complete strangers...10% of which are RSO's (already known to the system). The remaining 5% is a statistically TINY amount of true, boogeyman type abductions, where someone steals a child who is completely unknown to them. I assume this tiny percentage would include those mentally ill people who steal a child for reasons OTHER than sexual, like childless women. So that would knock out say another 1%...which brings it down to 4%. Then we factor in the "baby market" where they are stolen to order....possibly another 1-2%...so now we are right down to about 2% actually being the type of "stealing a random child for sexual purposes" that some believe is on every street corner.

Of course I am just guessing the last bit, and may be way off base...even if I am, the figures still illustrate exactly how rare it is...with such a massive country as the US, so much crime and drugs and family breakdown, it's amazing it isn't higher...but there you go.

The type of person who will hunt and abduct a random child for their own sexual pleasure is a very rare beast indeed. Thank God.

I just want to point out that the 10% RSO is by no means mutually exclusive with 70% who are known relationships. RSOs do kidnap kids they know.

 

[SapphireSteel]

I just want to point out that the 10% RSO is by no means mutually exclusive with 70% who are known relationships. RSOs do kidnap kids they know.

I realise this, but decided it did not affect the point I was trying to make either way.

The RSO's may overlap both categories but I decided in context, that is not what is implied. I may be wrong but it doesn't really affect my sums much either way.

 

[Gallegos]

Location of abduction

 

[Gallegos]

http://goo.gl/maps/pIzT

 

[SapphireSteel]

Above BBM..

Yea, well tell that to Jessica Lunsfords family,

Jessica was taken by a neighbour who walked in through an unlocked front door - not a stranger. Further, he was a RSO <modsnip>

Marc Klaas' family whose daughter, Polly was also stolen from her bedroom, raped and killed, or

A genuine stranger abduction

the Smart family...

Elizabeth was taken by a handyman employed by the Smarts - not a stranger.

all of these family's were responsible, involved parents/grandparents who were doing the very best to protectively and responsibly raise their young girls..

No one said they weren't.

yet monsters still plotted, schemed and planned around those families to get to what they wanted...their innocent young children.. they went to great lengths to get what they'd obsessed on and become focused on.. with both Richard Davis and David Mitchell climbing up to second floor bedrooms to break into the girls bedrooms to get what they wanted.. both bedrooms had more than just the victim in them...Polly had several girlfriends in her bedroom when Davis entered and took Polly.. Eliazabeth was actually asleep alongside her sister who witnessed Mitchell taking Elizabeth out of the bedroom window and disappearing into the night..

These facts are not in dispute

These three examples are just the ones off the top of my head,

Only one example of a true stranger kidnapping, the others were known to the families and/or RSOs

but sadly there are so many who are the like in that there are active, involved, caring family members that were responsibly providing and Caring for these girls.. yet predators still found there way around that obstacle to seek the prey that they were so desperately hunting..

My point is simple.. there are many families who are doing "everything they're supposed to be doing" and their child can still be stolen right from under their noses...sadly I believe this case is going to be another sad, tragic example of that.
jmo.

Absolutely, it happens. We wouldn't be posting here if it didn't...however, my original point is that stranger abductions are very rare. You have inadvertently supported this by posting 2 abductions who you believe were stranger abductions, but are not.

I am in NO WAY insinuating that any of these families pain is something to be dismissed or taken lightly...just pointing out that it is statistically unlikely to happen in this way, and with all "odds", there are things you can do to weigh them in your favor. Like locking front doors, for example.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Interested to note two houses burnt down in the area.

Arson is closely linked with sexual offending...if indeed it was arson.

If it was...find the arsonist and you'll find the predator IMO.

Also further supports my supposition of a young offender.

 

[Gallegos]

Interested to note two houses burnt down in the area.

Arson is closely linked with sexual offending...if indeed it was arson.

If it was...find the arsonist and you'll find the predator IMO.

Also further supports my supposition of a young offender.

agree, the fire was reportedly 'said' to be caused by broken power lines.. is still possible, your supposition is viable.

however, these burnt houses could also be additional access points from the field and canal that the photo's do not show, which could alter likely coordinates of the sexual assault and murder for forensics.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Ok so no arson.

Forget I said that