Hi crissianni, Thanks for sharing the info on the FLDS and its "Lost Boys". Makes total sense from the polygamy perspective, but I had never heard anything about it before and I love to learn new things! With that said, the possibility that Jason Doe is from one of the FLDS sects is really small, so don't put so much time into it, unless you have something about Jason Doe that really screams 'lost boy'. That will just burn you out and take away resources that could be better used in other ways.
There are so many runaways, throw-aways and teens/young adults that just simply do not have anybody in their lives that care enough to report them missing. Also there are many young men in their late teens and early twenties, who just take off to venture out on their own, even if their parents wish they had not.
IMO There are so many cultural factors/living situations where a young adult male would not be reported to officials as missing. Here are some statistics on the US population that I believe are relevant:
-The National Network for Youth suggests that approximately 1 to 1.3 million young people run away from home each year.
http://www.acf.hhs.gov/index.html
- The number of children in foster care increased during the 1990s from 400,000 in 1990 to 567,000 in 1999
http://www.childtrendsdatabank.org/?q=node/199
- Today less than half of children grow up with both natural parents. Nearly a third are born to unmarried parents, the majority of whom never live together, and another third are born to married parents who divorce before their child reaches adulthood. To further complicate matters, a substantial number of children are exposed to multiple marital disruptions and multiple father figures.
http://apps.olin.wustl.edu/macarthur/working papers/wp-mclanahan2.htm
- Another factor that might result in a young adult not being reported as missing is poverty. In 1996, the number of people in poverty was 36.5 million, representing 13.7 percent of the population.
http://www.census.gov/prod/3/97pubs/P60-198.PDF
To put it into perspective, the number of FDLS members in the US is relatively small, leading to the conclusion of Jason Doe being part of that culture as statistically unlikely.
- Fundamentalist Mormons differ from mainstream Mormonism primarily in their belief in and practice of plural marriage. There are thought to be between 20,000 and 60,000 members of fundamentalist sects, (0.1–0.4% of Mormons), with roughly half of them practicing polygamy.
Mormons - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- Various sources indicate that there are between 500 and 1000 FDLS "lost boys" in the US.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jun/14/usa.julianborger
The Amish population is just a bit larger:
As of 2000, over 165,000 Old Order Amish live in the United States and approximately 1500 live in Canada.[5] A 2008 study suggested their numbers have increased to 227,000,[6] and in 2010 a study suggested their population had grown by 10% in the past two years to 249,000, with increasing movement to the West.[1]
Amish - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In summary, the likelihood that Jason Doe was an FDLS "lost boy" is very small. The possibility that might be Amish and out doing a rumspringa adventure has already been brought up here. Both religions are such a small part of the overall population that it is statistically unlikely.