Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #6

[nightpaw]

DBM
- unpublished rumor
Thanks DrSleuth

 

[Kemug]

We have previously speculated that perhaps SM saw the accused engaged in some sort of illegal activity, and had words with him. And then things escalated. Or he nearly ran her down, also leading to a confrontation and violence. Now I am thinking that yes, maybe these scenarios or similar did happen, but prior to the day she disappeared, ie she wasn't killed at that time. Instead, the accused went home, brooded on the event, worked himself up into a murderous rage, and laid his plans. Possible?

 

[Nifty]

My gut feeling is an initial accident around the boundary Rd / recreation road area, followed by a string of poor decisions. This intersection has a crest that obscures the intersection until its too late (loose gravel road, poor surface etc.)
You can get a fair amount of speed heading east along recreation road (potentially getting air over the crest, 50m before the intersection)
Then a panic, resulting in moving the body via boak road. Pause at the telstra tower and further planning there. Get caught on camera. Potentially wait for help.
Keep moving towards lal lal / Clarendon / Enfield. It's a ridiculous amount of area out there, with fire / motorbike tracks everywhere.
**edit: east along recreation rd
** I think I'm tending towards an initial accident out of self preservation. It's a more paletable feeling than 'Joe Nobody' waking up after a bender and deciding to attack someone. That horrifies me.

Victoria Police Commissioner Shane Patton told media this afternoon that detectives questioned the man for more than 30 hours after he was taken into custody yesterday. He said police believed the murder was "a deliberate act" and "not a hit and run

 

[HoneyBunOne]

My gut feeling is an initial accident around the boundary Rd / recreation road area, followed by a string of poor decisions. This intersection has a crest that obscures the intersection until its too late (loose gravel road, poor surface etc.)
You can get a fair amount of speed heading east along recreation road (potentially getting air over the crest, 50m before the intersection)
Then a panic, resulting in moving the body via boak road. Pause at the telstra tower and further planning there. Get caught on camera. Potentially wait for help.
Keep moving towards lal lal / Clarendon / Enfield. It's a ridiculous amount of area out there, with fire / motorbike tracks everywhere.
**edit: east along recreation rd
** I think I'm tending towards an initial accident out of self preservation. It's a more paletable feeling than 'Joe Nobody' waking up after a bender and deciding to attack someone. That horrifies me.

I tend to agree with you. IMHO - Coming home from God only knows where, possibly speeding, most likely with drugs and alcohol in his system, maybe on a suspended licence, and he accidently hits her. (pure coincidence it's at the halfway point of her run.) I'm guessing not hard enough, or in the right place, for there to be blood, just trauma. From here he panics. He sees his life disappear before him - parents ashamed and shun him, girlfriend leaves him, looses his job, looses status in the community. He can't risk that. She's clearly not dead yet (because of the murder, not manslaughter charge), maybe there's an argument, either way he "finishes her off". Maybe using tools from his car, or a nearby rock, or maybe even running over her again (less likely IMHO). From there, who knows? Was he alone in the car at this point? Did he call someone for physical assistance, or to get advice? Time will hopefully tell.

 

[Dotta]

I agree. Also he may have seen this fifty year old woman jogging alone and thought she would be an easy target

I even suspect that the body was allegedly moved from temporary hiding place to the fires that raged in the neighbourhood.

After all, the accused had a lot of time before he got on Police's radar.

JMO

 

[bearbear]

i think instead of panicking he may have kept sms body in his vehicle a day or two, so he had time to think where was the best place, and ended up choosing a secluded lonely place with water, somewhere he may have discovered exploring years ago, knowing nobody would disturb him or find her,
the vehicle would still have a lot of evidence, no matter how much he washed it

 

[drsleuth]

Unless it's been mentioned in MSM , police updates or verified insiders than it's classed as a rumour

If stating something as fact, we need links to the facts.....

Random comments on social media are not allowed . People can say whatever they like on SM & there is no way to verify the comments.

Hope that helps

Edit : I have removed the message from the poster I was replying to - as it was rumor.

 

[Nifty]

In terms of where the accused might have put the body, anyone want to hazard a guess?

In my mind is the categorisation of killers: organised and disorganised and wonder what the accused might be and what this would mean for disposal of a body?

You would think his girlfriend would be able to give police a good time frame on that Sunday morning

And where was she ? If she was at home, what time did she see him etc

In the 2 weeks, police were watching him, they must have seen a lot

not to mention whether his and her phone were bugged as well

 

[Sher Lock]

i think instead of panicking he may have kept sms body in his vehicle a day or two, so he had time to think where was the best place, and ended up choosing a secluded lonely place with water, somewhere he may have discovered exploring years ago, knowing nobody would disturb him or find her,
the vehicle would still have a lot of evidence, no matter how much he washed it

Good points, however I would have thought he'd be required to work on the Monday morning, and surely he wouldn't be carrying a body around in his vehicle. My feeling is perhaps the body was immediately hidden and then removed at some point in time, and relocated.

 

[ReadySet]

IMO Too much is being made of the age difference. I don't think he saw her face close up and knew she was 50.
He saw a woman running. She was fit.
He saw a woman. She was running. How dare she be out there free and running? Who did he think she was? Did she think she could just go out and do what she wanted?
He'd show her.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

I may be clutching at straws here, but with little info to go on, here are a few free floating associations …. Given the speed of the police notification and initial search for Samantha, the accused did not have long to collect and dispose of the body. Perhaps he exited the location first, and took his time to later dispose of the body? Of course the longer he took to do so, the greater the risk of being found with the body… The fact that the body has still not been found, in spite of rigorous searching for 5 weeks now, suggests to me a more methodical, calculated process rather than a panicked and disorganised effort? (Though I’m no expert). I may be completely wrong but as I think this through I sense a conspicuous absence of emotion, as well as some magical thinking, in this hypothetical scenario…. There is almost a quality of “now you see it, now you don’t…”. Aka., if the body “disappears” nothing actually happened… possibly an underlying lack of object constancy as seen in an infant/young child? I wonder if the accused’s silence reflects a similar sleight of mind? Aka., “if I don’t admit it, nothing happened?” All completely hypothetical, JMO…

Regardless of whether it was a panicked or calculated action after the fact, the accused still grew up in the area, was clearly the outdoor type, probably had a car licence for 4 years (I'm guessing), also rode motor bikes, enjoyed camping and spent his youth in and around the area. He would have a lot of knowledge of out of the way places for these activities, especially if he was partaking in illegal drug taking during them. What I'm getting at is that he knows the bush land and country areas, and there are a lot of them. He doesn't have to have been panicked, calm, or methodical, potentially just lucky. It could be blind luck that he chose a spot not on the police radar yet. Like looking for a needle in a haystack.

 

[sm1980]

Victoria Police Commissioner Shane Patton told media this afternoon that detectives questioned the man for more than 30 hours after he was taken into custody yesterday. He said police believed the murder was "a deliberate act" and "not a hit and run

Yeah, I saw that. However, in the scenario I laid out, LE won't have known about anything prior to being caught on trail cam / tower cam or whatever. Whatever they saw was enough to convince the DPP / OPP that they could substantiate a charge of murder. If their proof has PS showing at least a blatent disregard for human life, that's all they need. IMO

 

[BGirl88]

I think the attack was completely random.

Unfortunately,
the alleged perp and the lone runner crossed paths.

I guess the booze and drugs consumed by alleged attacker played the decisive role.

JMO

I'm with you on this @Dotta - totally random attack. Wrong place at the wrong time. Completely opportunistic attack from someone who was on a comedown from a big night and wanted to feel powerful. But snapped out of his 'comedown' (whatever that looks like for him) pretty quickly as soon as the attack was over and thought 'crap, what have I done, I need to cover my tracks'.

Either that or he is a complete psycho - 'conducted' the attack and then continued on with cleaning up the aftermath (I can almost hear him whistling as he goes about his business).

IMO

 

[tiff]

I think the attack was completely random.

Unfortunately,
the alleged perp and the lone runner crossed paths.

I guess the booze and drugs consumed by alleged attacker played the decisive role.

JMO

This is my theory too. Some of the mine shafts can be 100’s of metres deep, and they have water in them too I’ve read.
I think it’s completely plausible for a fit and strong 22yo man to carry a ~ 70kg body for some distance and dispose of it down a mineshaft.
Would be interesting to see what the status of the clothes the accused wore that Saturday night is, and whether or not they still exist.

 

[Dotta]

Reminder!!!!

Please use:
- alleged/ly
- the accused
- the defendant

 

[Angeline]

My gut feeling is an initial accident around the boundary Rd / recreation road area, followed by a string of poor decisions. This intersection has a crest that obscures the intersection until its too late (loose gravel road, poor surface etc.)
You can get a fair amount of speed heading east along recreation road (potentially getting air over the crest, 50m before the intersection)
Then a panic, resulting in moving the body via boak road. Pause at the telstra tower and further planning there. Get caught on camera. Potentially wait for help.
Keep moving towards lal lal / Clarendon / Enfield. It's a ridiculous amount of area out there, with fire / motorbike tracks everywhere.
**edit: east along recreation rd
** I think I'm tending towards an initial accident out of self preservation. It's a more paletable feeling than 'Joe Nobody' waking up after a bender and deciding to attack someone. That horrifies me.

Thanks for your insights. It's interesting to hear about the finer details of the area - especially the crest.

If the accused was on a bender, I can imagine him driving carelessly, hitting someone, then making a series of poor decisions in his drug fueled state.

 

[Liadan]

I have had a worse thought: what if SM was unconscious and incapacitated with the same drugs the assailant used and dropped off somewhere? (Also could be incapacitated physically with restraints.) Likely the guy had more drugs on him... Also, some drugs make you feel like you have supa hooman strength factor so he coulda been so hyped up he might have been able to carry her some distance into the bush. We need that tracker back!

 

[ProfCluezo]

Is anyone other than me reflecting on what the odds are of a completely “random” untargeted opportunistic attack occurring without a single trace of evidence being left behind at the scene (that the public are aware of), and no trace of where the body mysteriously “disappeared” to, after 5+ weeks of intensive police and community searching in 2024? It would seem extraordinarily “lucky” to me that a rookie accused murderer could, single-handedly, “pull off” a series of untraceable steps with such aplomb, attracting 5 weeks of national and international attention with no planning, and, further, impaired by drugs, alcohol and lack of sleep…. ?!?! Even if he did know the area… The odds of all these separate elements of “lucky ness” seem so far beyond chance as to be extraordinary… While Samantha, on the other hand, was so “unlucky”… : (

 

[Angeline]

Victoria Police Commissioner Shane Patton told media this afternoon that detectives questioned the man for more than 30 hours after he was taken into custody yesterday. He said police believed the murder was "a deliberate act" and "not a hit and run

Is it still considered a "hit and run" if the person moves the body? I guess the nature of a hit and run is not deliberate.

Wonder if she was deliberately hit by a car. There was some talk of a damaged vehicle.

'Psychopathic': New car clue sparks hope in missing mum case

A new approach by police could flip the search for Samantha Murphy on its head.

www.nzherald.co.nz

A possible sighting of a damaged vehicle around the area police are now searching could hold a clue into what happened to Murphy.

 

[DK007]

apologies if this has already been said but does anyone think perhaps he isn't saying where the body is because he doesn't know where the body is? as in, if someone else helped him to dispose of the body then perhaps he really cannot say

Imoo
I doubt it as LE would’ve realised this information to the public. They made it very clear it was the perpetrator only.