Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #6

[nightpaw]

IMO Too much is being made of the age difference. I don't think he saw her face close up and knew she was 50.
He saw a woman running. She was fit.
He saw a woman. She was running. How dare she be out there free and running? Who did he think she was? Did she think she could just go out and do what she wanted?
He'd show her.

From the information that’s been released I tend to agree with this theory… only that I think murderous tendencies lay dormant within him all along. MOO.
If the videos released by the herald sun are actually from the night before he looks to be completely inebriated and uninhibited. Perhaps something as simple as a fight with his girlfriend due to being too far gone or a fight with a friend or someone else mixed with cocktail of drugs that blur the lines of reality, blind rage coincided with unfortunate consequences for SM. I feel like he saw her while out driving wasted or passed her while on her run, noting that she was alone and the area is deserted thought about it for a split second circled back and …
Obviously never met him and this is all speculation but intuitively feel that if not SM then another opportunity that came along mixed with the previous night’s scenario.
perhaps if the police had released the information with a different phrase other then repeating “this was a deliberate attack on Samantha” I would be inclined to think possible hit and run and then cover up. But the police statement combined with the silence and unwillingness to cooperate IMO concludes a worst case scenario?
Maybe someone can clarify interrogation techniques ? I’ve read here that he was questioned for 30 hours ? How is that possible and are there forms of manipulation that occur, within the legal spectrum, a highly publicized case a lot of pressure on LE?

 

[BoysTown]

My gut feeling is an initial accident around the boundary Rd / recreation road area, followed by a string of poor decisions. This intersection has a crest that obscures the intersection until its too late (loose gravel road, poor surface etc.)
You can get a fair amount of speed heading east along recreation road (potentially getting air over the crest, 50m before the intersection)
Then a panic, resulting in moving the body via boak road. Pause at the telstra tower and further planning there. Get caught on camera. Potentially wait for help.
Keep moving towards lal lal / Clarendon / Enfield. It's a ridiculous amount of area out there, with fire / motorbike tracks everywhere.
**edit: east along recreation rd
** I think I'm tending towards an initial accident out of self preservation. It's a more paletable feeling than 'Joe Nobody' waking up after a bender and deciding to attack someone. That horrifies me.

This is great insight!

 

[Cartie]

would it call EMS if your heart/respiration stopped? I know a colleague gets alarms if he gets arrhythmia.

Maybe it did

 

[BreakingNews]

Long time member (2018) and lurker… but have never posted. I love reading everyone’s contributions and am amazed at the abundance of wisdom on these threads. Thank you!

I’m sorry to ask such a sad question, but does anyone know how long a body would likely show evidence of DNA and specific injuries (such as SA) in the current Ballarat climate, or in a lake/pond or mineshaft in general? I guess, the question I am asking is how much longer do they have (ballpark estimate) to find Ms Murphy’s body to be able to ascertain what actually happened to her?

I am quite intrigued by this case, as I did spend many of my younger years living and working in Ballarat and know the area quite well.

G'day. Allison Baden Clay was thrown in a river which flooded while she was left there near Brisbane. She was found ... I can't believe I have forgotten, but I think about 10 days after her hubby threw her there. Cause of death could not be determined, but suspected strangulation. She had scratched his face (was main reason he was suspected from day 1) but under her fingernails forensics could not get his DNA. All too much flood water. Doctor Watson, where are you these days?

 

[mamamama9873]

I tend to agree with you. IMHO - Coming home from God only knows where, possibly speeding, most likely with drugs and alcohol in his system, maybe on a suspended licence, and he accidently hits her. (pure coincidence it's at the halfway point of her run.) I'm guessing not hard enough, or in the right place, for there to be blood, just trauma. From here he panics. He sees his life disappear before him - parents ashamed and shun him, girlfriend leaves him, looses his job, looses status in the community. He can't risk that. She's clearly not dead yet (because of the murder, not manslaughter charge), maybe there's an argument, either way he "finishes her off". Maybe using tools from his car, or a nearby rock, or maybe even running over her again (less likely IMHO). From there, who knows? Was he alone in the car at this point? Did he call someone for physical assistance, or to get advice? Time will hopefully tell.

I also believe this is the most likely scenario based on what we know about him.

 

[BreakingNews]

I’m hearing today the accused and his gf attended an 80th birthday party at a Ballarat East home on Sat evening Feb 3 prior to the later nightclub outing.
He left his Ute at that home … returning the next morning around 6.00 am to collect .

Respectfully. But how does someone get up before 6am after a big night out? I am more inclined to believe he would not have been to bed. MOO

 

[Nikynoo]

This is the requirement for murder in NSW (not Australian, so please correct me if I am wrong).
In NSW, Section 18 of the Crimes Act 1900 defines murder and manslaughter. It involves a voluntary act by someone that causes a death of a person where there was an:

• Intent to kill: This requires establishing the defendant deliberately planned and executed the killing; or
• Intent to inflict grievous bodily harm; or
• Reckless indifference to human life: This involves demonstrating that the defendant’s actions disregarded the potential for causing death, even without a specific intention to kill.

Underlining mine.

Source Degrees of Murder in Australia | JB Solicitors

IMO, if the D was (as alledged) involved in drinking and drug taking in the early hours of Sunday - this would fall under the third of the above. D was 'reckless' because D chose to drive whilst under the influence (and this is also an illegal act). IMO, This also negates 'accident' under the eyes of the law because of the 'reckless' element.

 

[louisepiglet]

curious how he cleaned up if he did- had to be in one of the houses unless he was in some natural water area... and if he had an explanation for his whereabouts that day

Killing someone does not necessarily mean you would need to clean yourself up. Many ways to kill a person that would not involve blood etc.

 

[Neet_Mc]

Long time member (2018) and lurker… but have never posted. I love reading everyone’s contributions and am amazed at the abundance of wisdom on these threads. Thank you!

I’m sorry to ask such a sad question, but does anyone know how long a body would likely show evidence of DNA and specific injuries (such as SA) in the current Ballarat climate, or in a lake/pond or mineshaft in general? I guess, the question I am asking is how much longer do they have (ballpark estimate) to find Ms Murphy’s body to be able to ascertain what actually happened to her?

I am quite intrigued by this case, as I did spend many of my younger years living and working in Ballarat and know the area quite well.

Not sure, however I imagine someone like PS googling ‘how long would a body show dna evidence’ may be quite telling to LE!

 

[NoSpoonFeeding]

DBM

 

[louisepiglet]

Im leaning towards Samantha's body being dropped into a mine shaft. So many of them accessible and if the body was discovered then PS would have been hoping it would have been treated as an accident. ie Samantha accidentally fell in and died. PS is local to the area and probably knows the area quite well. Probably explored as a boy and rode motorbikes there too.

 

[ScottToorak]

A great leader for the boys and girls in blue. Under pressure as well. Respect !

Police will allege Ms Murphy died on the day she disappeared in Mount Clear, and that the attack was “deliberate”. Police have also revealed that Ms Murphy's death was not a hit-and-run.

Was George Pell found not guilty and who drove the police efforts to have him charged?

 

[hahahils]

The police have been very tight lipped, as they should be, about most aspects of the information/evidence against the accused - but the one thing the have stated VERY clearly is that this was NOT a hit and run. So we can take that off the table.
Apologies if this has been mentioned before, but it just keeps coming up in my thoughts - the accused has been charged with Murder, yet SM's body has not been located as yet, so am I correct in thinking there must be some direct irrefutable evidence that shows that she is deceased? I know they can prosecute without a body, but unless there was proof that SM was no longer alive would they not be charging him with a lesser offence?

 

[nightpaw]

I also believe this is the most likely scenario based on what we know about him.

Sorry to keep reposting this one - it’s very graphic.
I was thinking if it was an initial accident wouldn’t the accused admit that now? It’s all out there. His entire family are now in the public eye.
What could staying silent in this matter of occurrence achieve?
Surely if it was an accident and cover up there is still some form of coming back from that. Maybe not much but there would be more understanding to a degree. I just can’t see someone that committed an initial accident (regardless of what happened post that) not revealing that or offering a kind of cooperation with LE?? MOO

 

[ScottToorak]

Has he been out and about partying or working since the alleged incident and before his arrest?. If he was able to function free of a guilt complex for the best part of a month then this is very concerning and I think would warrant a closer look at other missing people in the state. Who did he work for and does he have any social media footprint?

 

[nao]

Moo.. if it did start as a verbal argument between the two and he got out of his auto and became physically aggressive and this caused her death. Would that be seen as deliberate and therefore murder?

 

[Angeline]

The police have been very tight lipped, as they should be, about most aspects of the information/evidence against the accused - but the one thing the have stated VERY clearly is that this was NOT a hit and run. So we can take that off the table.
Apologies if this has been mentioned before, but it just keeps coming up in my thoughts - the accused has been charged with Murder, yet SM's body has not been located as yet, so am I correct in thinking there must be some direct irrefutable evidence that shows that she is deceased? I know they can prosecute without a body, but unless there was proof that SM was no longer alive would they not be charging him with a lesser offence?

My impression was that they were hitting him with the most severe offence, so that they could negotiate (eg if he reveals the location of the body) then they can potentially downgrade the charge. I don't know for sure, but I'm certain I've seen this happen before.

 

[Nifty]

Is it still considered a "hit and run" if the person moves the body? I guess the nature of a hit and run is not deliberate.

Wonder if she was deliberately hit by a car. There was some talk of a damaged vehicle.

'Psychopathic': New car clue sparks hope in missing mum case

A new approach by police could flip the search for Samantha Murphy on its head.

www.nzherald.co.nz

A possible sighting of a damaged vehicle around the area police are now searching could hold a clue into what happened to Murphy.

The vehicle could have already been damaged or damaged trying to get out

And it still doesn't mean the vehicle was used at all to kill her, but to transport

 

[Justoneoftheguests]

Not sure, however I imagine someone like PS googling ‘how long would a body show dna evidence’ may be quite telling to LE!

If I’m ever under surveillance for a crime I am all kinds of stuffed

Webslewths has me googling all sorts of questionable things!

 

[Voluspa]

<modsnip - quoted post was removed>

I know LE have stated this was not a hit and run. I questioned this theory awhile back on if the accused decided to drive under the influence, hit SM and then hid her body instead of calling authorities - would that be enough grounds for a murder charge instead of manslaughter?

Also when you think about it, a hit and run would result in less evidence than a perp handling the body, placing the victim in their car and transferring DNA everywhere.