Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #2

About the entry point...

I feel like the likeliest is by using the vehicle in the driveway for a boost up onto the balcony & in.
By far and away the easiest and most logical theory, yes. Or at least with the fewest amount of problems with it. I'm yet to hear one single convincing argument why the killer couldn't have climbed on to the car, then got up on to Rei's balcony to carry out the murders in the exact sequence the TMPD stand by.
I know it's unlikely that the perp came to the front door & gained entry that way. But, I think there's a slim possibility. Could he have knocked at the door & asked for help, a telephone call, or to use the bathroom?
It's possible but for me this is the least likely of all the options. Would Mikio let a man with a covered face up to the place where his family are asleep at 11pm? And even if, in this scenario, Mikio were to do that, would he leave this stranger up there long enough to strangle someone? I think it would be unlikely for near-on any father to let a stranger with a covered face (albeit mask wearing is very common in Japan) into their homes in such circumstances. But in Japan? Almost infinitely less likely. JMO

Someone else mentioned that possibly Mikio heard the attempt at the bathroom window & went outside to check. Could the perp have sneaked in then? If the perp is possibly American, he might have left his shoes on rather than removing them at the door as would be typical. And, if you're going to kill, what does it matter if you snub the cultural norm to remove your shoes at the door? I think the shoes being worn doesn't necessarily exclude the front door as an entry point.
Yes, I think the shoe-wearing is absolutely irrelevant. The idea that if he was Japanese he would remove his shoes out of respect to then go on and slaughter an entire family is laughable. Same goes for using the genkan out of habit. The killer is going to keep his shoes on to kill, irrespective of his nationality or culture. He isn't there to make a good impression.
Sorry, I can't remember, what is the theory on how the perp exited the house? Front door? Was there any kind of blood trail related to his exit?
The exit point is unknown. As Haruko, the maternal grandmother, found them at 10am and didn't call the police until 11am, this point has been somewhat obfuscated. I think it's possible she may have passed out. She doesn't remember if the door was closed but unlocked, ajar, or even wide open.
Also, Faceless, in your investigation of a possible perp, what kinds of personality traits does that person have? Are they gregarious? Friendly? Isolated?

MOO.
This is difficult to answer without being vague. On the one hand, I know a great deal about him. On the other, this is mostly dates, achievements, moves etc. In terms of personality, that's a lot more up in the air. Though, from limited conversations with those that knew him, the picture of an extremely bright but deeply arrogant person emerges. And, as I've mentioned before, there were changes in his life that seemingly angered him. A great deal. Sadly, I can't say more.
 
@FacelessPodcast at least 5 years learning Japanese while in Japan and also relatively young and in school would be more than enough to have a solid grip on the language. I learned enough to have very few problems in Japanese in all aspects of life in 2 years less than that by just living here.
The more info you’re releasing about your POI the more I believe he blended into Japan incredibly well by the time he left.

Another thing for people to consider: mask culture in Japan has been around for decades. People here wear masks for the flu, hayfever, it’s too cold outside, even if they’re just hungover or can’t be bothered to do their make up! Masks are everywhere.
If the killer looked almost like everyone else here due to his Korean ancestry, wearing a mask during winter time could seal the deal on him looking just like everyone else.
SMB: great points here, @Incoherent. The POI begins his Japanese studies around 12 years of age and it continues to at least 18. The grades I've seen are excellent in this area throughout. As someone who learned a language as a child in half that time (albeit slightly younger so carrying a natural advantage), this doesn't surprise me at all. Not that the killer would need a great deal of Japanese --if any at all-- to have carried out the murders the way he did that night.

RE: the masks, the guy could've been white with ginger hair on the night in question. Given the bucket hat, the handkerchief covering his face, and the cover of darkness, he clearly didn't want to be seen. But yes, if you factor in the strong possibility of his Korean features, I hardly think anyone was going to do a double-take that afternoon as he ate his spinach with sesame or whatever.
 
Thanks for answering! I once followed the Delphi case. The abundance of the suspects and constantly changing theories and pois made my head spin. As time has shown, however, LE’s initial idea that the man “knew the lay of the land” and was local was correct. But it probably was the only thing where they were not wrong.
Unfortunately, there is nothing in our case that points to being local or indeed not local. But, if he's the latter, it makes sense why he is someone who has been abroad to California. Though anything is possible. My problem with the killer being local is that I know how hard the TMPD went after him in the area and they found absolutely nothing. Is it possible he was just hiding in plain sight? Yes. But given his injuries and distinctive profile, he would have to have been hiding in an attic with the complicity of someone who cared about him enough to overlook the lives of Niina and Rei, for one.
So I hope that here, too, the police intuitively got the correct feeling about the perpetrator not being from Japan. (However, the Japanese murder that was recently solved using DNA had amply demonstrated that the killer might be local, respected and live in the same community).
The important difference there, of course, is that that killer was on the criminal database. Our killer is not. Given the impossibility of using newer DNA investigative techniques, they're relying on him to commit another crime in Japan. If he is not in Japan, then they are waiting for a month of Sundays.

About Japanese language, very interesting. I suspect that the perp had to have some immersion outside the base, too. That the.perp is bright makes the case very difficult. Outsiders with high IQ can "mask" much better.
I know for a fact that kids on that base frequently went off it. Casually but also on organised day trips and so on. There were sports tournaments across the country, debates, hikes etc. There is zero chance that, if the killer was indeed studying on that military base, that he hadn't ventured outside before. From everything I know about my POI? I think he was extremely good at masking his inner world.
About the base, I defer to your opinion. I just don’t want LE to stick to one scenario and disregard alternative versions. I read of Lorna Dawson's opinion. Are all sands in the world unique? I don't know, and can't subscribe to any theory.
My opinion is no more worthy of deference than anyone else! But yes, Dr Dawson's basic point is that all sand is unique. Or at least, identifiable. Like fingerprints, there will often be common traits. But that nowhere is identical. I know she has solved cases before by testing the sand in the wheels of a husband (professing he didn't know where his wife was) and, recognising their specific traits, being able to tell police not just which remote Scottish island the body would be found, but on which sand dune. And so it proved. Now, of course this is relying on the sand of any given area to have been studied and recorded and catalogued. Luckily, in the case of the Mojave Desert, there is extremely good data. If the TMPD were to share the sand in the killer's bag with her, or the FBI or some such, we would be able to know exactly where the killer had been walking at some point before those murders.

I'm not blinded to other theories here. I always concede that my own may well be wrong. I am just yet to hear any convincing, or even semi-convincing, as to why it is.
 
About An Irie's family not hearing the noises.
If Rei was behind, maybe, barely verbal, he could be prone to head-banging. If so, this could explain why the noises were totally misinterpreted.
As I understand it, Rei would shout. Whether his typical sounds could be confused with the murder of four people, I don't know. Just on the face of it, it's hard to imagine how the two could sound similar.
I don't know how the perp chose the Miyazawas. Perhaps his luck lay in the correct choice of the victims. They had no connection to him, and he was a stranger to them.
I agree very much. This lack of connection, paired with his ability to leave without a trace, I think is the key to his success (along with a lot of luck).
I think he did stalk them, though. I doubt he spent a lot of time among the skateboarders. Once, maybe. But he had many chances to observe the Miyazawas. Where? If we answer this, we have a clue.
I don't think such a person would have easily blended in with that crowd without a love of skating and the necessary language skills. In the case of my POI, the latter would've been debatable. The former, I have no idea.
About the family. IMHO, there is certain projection here. @FacelessPodcast, you say that the father was strict, but the way the perp treated Rei and Mikio, I suspect he is rather indifferent to men. MOO - he views women as his adversaries. He did quite a job on poor Niina and especially, Yasuko.
I don't say that Mikio was a strict father. He kept strict records / book-keeping. I think he was a good father. I do know that certain colleagues described him as a nice man who was good at his job, although sometimes difficult. Setsuko described him as loving and funny, he always used to make her laugh. That he spent his money on books and always kept financial records, even as a child. We also think that sometimes he would shout at people who parked too close to the house. Every man is a collage. Every man is what he is on that given day. I've said many times that trying to divine who the "true" target of the killer was is nebulous at best. It's true that Yasuko was stabbed the most. But everyone is dead. Perhaps she was his real target. Perhaps they all were. I have no opinion on the killer's attitudes towards men or women. Though I will say that in the case of my POI, nobody I spoke to felt he had any problem with women. Indeed, he seemed relatively social across different groups, girlfriend etc. But as I say, his life changed and he responded with anger.
And then you look at the Miyazawa family. I came across an interesting word describing people like Mikio in my mother tongue, "the botanists" (i.e., nerdish, science-inclined and harmless). Not so Yasuko. Opposite attracts, they say. She is strong, she stands out, and she is emotional.
Yasuko is the one I know the least about. Ann would not speak to us and Setsuko would not get on to her beyond saying that she was a good mother. I couldn't agree or disagree with what you say.

One wonders if in the perp's family, the layout was not dissimilar. The father, an obsessive perfectionist. The mother, emotional, perhaps slightly over the top. One wonders if she was even present in their lives by the time of the murders. Even if she was, I doubt that she and his father are married now. Somewhere along the line, she must have left. I don't know how (simply got free? Or got sick and was in the hospital?). The abandonment wounded the perp. Who did he attack the most viciously? Yasuko. What made him angry? JMO - the fact that she stayed by Niina and took care of her.
He attacked Yasuko most viciously, yes. But also Niina's front two teeth were missing. Her spinal column was severed. Is this because of anything they did? Nobody knows. Is this because of a pathological hatred of women. Again, no clue. It could just as easily be the fact that they were the last two that allowed the killer to visit more brutality on them. Don't forget that he aborted his attack on them to go downstairs for a different knife. That doesn't speak to me of a man driven by hatred, necessarily. Perhaps he wanted to ensure the knife would do its work.

Yasuko was not totally trapped. She could scream, maybe she could have run. But she stayed, to protect the child and fight for her. It angered the killer.
From her movements, it sounds like it took everything she had to carry Niina downstairs. Then it seems as if the child went to get the first aid kit. (One of the many incredibly tragic moments in this whole episode). I don't know if they were in any shape to fight by the time he returned with the carving knife. And again, I can't tell you with my hand on my heart that the killer was angry. Though my guess is yes. Or at least, he was driven by the need for release. And I think what he was releasing was rage
So even if there was a girlfriend, i doubt that the split drove him overboard. More likely, it was some conflict between him and his mother. Because if you are right, @FacelessPodcast, and they were from the base, look how the killer manipulated his "strict" father into helping him.
We don't know if the killer had any help at all from the father. My assumption is, at minimum, the father told nobody about the son's wounds (assuming he registered them as suspicious at all). I won't get into the specifics of my POI, but I can tell you that given changes in his life, I believe he was angry. His mother doesn't factor into any of that.
I even wonder if the parents had already split, perhaps the mother took the sibling, and left him. Or if she stayed, the killer was angry that she did not protect him. I don't know the pattern of his relationships with women, but if he still hunts, then he is 1) likely to attack women; 2) who are strangers; 3) judges women and hates "emotionally unavailable mothers". I feel there is some mess, he hates himself (unloved?) and takes it on women. I might be wrong, of course, but men he learned to manipulate.

I hope Yasuko fought him, and scratched him, too.
If any of that is true, he likely hasn't done that in the US (or if he has, he hasn't been apprehended nor has his profile been circulated). He certainly hasn't done this in Japan. My feeling is that he counted his blessings and started a quiet life. As I always say, half of homicides in the US go unsolved. That's a lot of men whistling as they mow the lawn, and wave a cheery good morning at their neighbours. I have no evidence for it and it's of course possible that he's committed other crimes. JMO that those crimes were pre-Setagaya.
 
Considering for a moment that the killer *didn't* intend to kill when he entered the house.

With Rei being prone to shouting and making noise, it may not be coincidental that he was killed in a way which prevented him from crying out. Did Rei make some noise which caused the killer to silence him, maybe without even originally intending to kill? Subsequently confronted by Mikio, the killer then fought to the death with him--and seriously injured himself in the process. Perhaps Niina and Yasuko were killed in such a horrific manner because the killer was "seeing red" about how badly everything had gone wrong. He presumably also wanted to remove witnesses.

I think it has been mentioned that the sashimi knife may not actually have been brought by the killer? What if the killer was confronted as Mikio came out of the kitchen at the top of the stairs, and Mikio was holding the knife?

I'm not convinced the horrific "overkill" on Niina and Yasuko was the result of any hatred of the two of them in particular. Who knows how much worse Mikio's injuries would have been if the knife used to kill him had been stronger, and hadn't broken.
 
Considering for a moment that the killer *didn't* intend to kill when he entered the house.
Thanks for your theorising as ever, @Interested_But_Confused. This is an entirely possible scenario, of course. For me there is way too much against the idea, however. If he didn't intend to kill, surely he intended to rob them? If so, why do this at a time when it was self-evident such an attempt would be almost impossible? They are home, the lights are on. Moreover, the experts in robberies I consulted in the making of the podcast (both those that featured in it and those that didn't) all felt that there was zero chance this was some kind of robbery gone wrong. This idea was echoed both in the UK by a leading professor in the field, and an FBI profiler with detailed knowledge and first-hand experience of the case.
With Rei being prone to shouting and making noise, it may not be coincidental that he was killed in a way which prevented him from crying out. Did Rei make some noise which caused the killer to silence him, maybe without even originally intending to kill?
If Rei (or quite reasonably any child) cried out at the sight of a man breaking into his bedroom forcing the killer to immediately strangle him, the question arises. Why not simply flee? If the motive is financial, like any burglar, why wouldn't he run off to rob another day? Instantly murdering a child takes this man into the realms of being hanged. If we assume there was some pressing reason why he could not flee (though I can't imagine what) and he was left with no choice but to murder Rei, then why not use the knife? (It was the killer's, I'll get on to that). It would have silenced the boy far, far quicker than strangulation.

Subsequently confronted by Mikio, the killer then fought to the death with him--and seriously injured himself in the process. Perhaps Niina and Yasuko were killed in such a horrific manner because the killer was "seeing red" about how badly everything had gone wrong. He presumably also wanted to remove witnesses.

I think it has been mentioned that the sashimi knife may not actually have been brought by the killer? What if the killer was confronted as Mikio came out of the kitchen at the top of the stairs, and Mikio was holding the knife?
I don't know where the idea that the knife wasn't the killer's came from. This is wrong. It categorically was. Ignoring the fact that only his fingerprints were on it (we assume either pre or post mortem, perhaps both); ignoring the fact that the blows of Mikio's murder make it evident he had no knife and was immediately attacked by the intruder; it was clearly established as not belonging to the family -- unlike the carving knife that was. After all, if this knife belonged to the family, why would the TMPD expressly publish information about it? As for the killer seeing red, as I've said before, entirely possible. But then again, maybe he was cool and collected the entire time. The fact that he stopped the attack on Yasuko and Niina feels important to me. He caused them significant damage even though the sashimi knife was broken. He could've gone for their throats, knife tip broken or not. I discount manual strangulation given the killer's injury but there were other ways open to him. Yet he was able to rationally pause the attack and go back downstairs, into the kitchen to find a better weapon. Is it possible he thought they were dead and so when he heard them coming down the ladder, it enraged him that they weren't, provoking him to grab the carving knife? Maybe. But that would require them to have both played possum for a time, perhaps, only to then immediately give that up and go downstairs (somehow managing to do this while both losing blood and in shock we assume). To me it's more likely that he may have been driven by rage in the act itself but in the moment he was in relatively in control.
I'm not convinced the horrific "overkill" on Niina and Yasuko was the result of any hatred of the two of them in particular. Who knows how much worse Mikio's injuries would have been if the knife used to kill him had been stronger, and hadn't broken.
Yes, I very much agree. It's entirely possible that his actions were motivated by such a hatred. But I would argue that the fact there is nothing definitive here tells its own story.
 
I don't know where the idea that the knife wasn't the killer's came from.

RSBM

I was remembering one of your posts in the previous thread:

Without going into too much detail, the knife salesman has not seen the killer. It was picked up in a nearby supermarket if we're talking about the same thing. That consumer was very recently identified. Not the killer. It's even possible the killer came with no knife and it belonged to Mikio. We just don't know.

 
RSBM

I was remembering one of your posts in the previous thread:



Haha to be fair that was a riff to discount the idea that the CCTV of the knife buying was no longer relevant after a recent conversation with the Chief. Which actually raises more questions than answers. But at any rate, my logic there doesn't hold because if the TMPD were looking for the person buying the knife (even if that man on the video wasn't the killer), it stands to reason that the knife would've belonged to the killer and not the family.
 
I can’t say for sure back in the 90’s but kids and other respective people from US bases in Japan are very active off base nowadays.
I have a few experiences interacting with people from Yokota in the past and they enjoy and live their live out in Tokyo often.
So I wouldn’t say the current POI was confined to the base when learning Japanese and getting most of his experience from there. At that age, and Tokyo being a safe as it is (iroincially), I feel like he could have been out and about as much as anyone else. Tokyo is one hell of a place to have fun at that age.
 
I can't escape the killer taking the amount of money he did. He didn't take the certain amount to make it look like a robbery. If that were his motive, I could see him taking some and leaving some as a "trail." But, he didn't take other family valuables to continue the ruse.

Did he intend on leaving quickly, but the murders took longer, and now he needed the cash for escape? Train or cab fare? Even if he didn't use these methods, did he take the cash with intent or need to do so? Cash to give an accomplice? Bribe someone? There's definitely something going on with the killer taking just a partial amount of money.
 
I am trying to imagine how the burglary part looks like. The Japanese Wikipedia (Tokyo police report) says the perpetrator acted like a criminal, pulling out the drawers starting from the bottom one.

(Why, btw? Does anyone know why professional burglars start with bottom drawers?
Does it have to do with the tendency of the drawers to get stuck?)

But then, he doesn’t merely rummage through them. He flips them over and empties the contents of the floor, into the bathroom, some end up covering Mikio.

I fail to imagine what would you be looking for in such manner. Something solid, small but relatively heavy, hidden under the papers, perhaps? A piece of jewelry? A photo camera?

His actions are a mixture of goal-oriented and random. Killing - very goal-oriented. Eating, sleeping, emptying bowels - random. (Unless he wanted to leave “proof” of eating regular Japanese food, indicating that he was a local, but I doubt he was so far-planning).

Where does rummaging through the drawers fit into?
 
I don't say that Mikio was a strict father. He kept strict records / book-keeping. I think he was a good father. I do know that certain colleagues described him as a nice man who was good at his job, although sometimes difficult.

I am sorry, I expressed myself mistakenly. By “he” I meant the killer’s father, not Mikio. You once mentioned that your poi’s father was strict and religious. I imagine him as “rigid”. Mikio, as I believe, was very different. His coworkers said that he’d always talk about his children.
 
Considering for a moment that the killer *didn't* intend to kill when he entered the house.

I sometimes wonder if the contents of his pockets - the zelkowa leaves, the bird feathers and guano - indicates a nasty habit of crushing birds in his hands? And sometimes I wonder if his intrusion was meant to progress to the next level, smother/choke a child. (A horrible thought, but not impossible). But with the noise and Mikio running to help, the perp. annihilated the whole family. The fact that he brought a knife seemingly speaks against it, but maybe the knife was merely “for protection?” He chose a poor knife.
 
I am trying to imagine how the burglary part looks like. The Japanese Wikipedia (Tokyo police report) says the perpetrator acted like a criminal, pulling out the drawers starting from the bottom one.

(Why, btw? Does anyone know why professional burglars start with bottom drawers?
Does it have to do with the tendency of the drawers to get stuck?)
RSBM

If you open the top drawer first, you have to close it again before you can look in the drawer below it. If you open the bottom drawer first, you don't have to close it again before you can look in the drawer above it. Starting at the bottom saves time as I understand it.
 
I can't escape the killer taking the amount of money he did. He didn't take the certain amount to make it look like a robbery.
We simply can't be sure of that. How do we know he didn't intend to make it look like a robbery? It could have been a simple afterthought. Or a whim. At any rate, it is officially listed as a robbery / homicide in the Tokyo MPD case files.
If that were his motive, I could see him taking some and leaving some as a "trail." But, he didn't take other family valuables to continue the ruse.

Did he intend on leaving quickly, but the murders took longer, and now he needed the cash for escape? Train or cab fare? Even if he didn't use these methods, did he take the cash with intent or need to do so? Cash to give an accomplice? Bribe someone? There's definitely something going on with the killer taking just a partial amount of money.
He took over $1,000. We simply can't know what his thinking was there. If he was poor or needed money desperately, he was also wearing a brand new jacket, his shirt was relatively expensive, his knife was not cheap. But it simply doesn't make sense that his motivation for slaughtering four human beings would be financial to then leave a further $1,500 behind plus foreign currency, plus jewelry and other valuables. The larger amount was right in front of him at the computer which he spent five minutes at (as well as pacing throughout the house all night). If he was there to make money, why not take as much of it as possible. If, for some reason, he only needed a specific amount to pay a debt off -- ignoring the improbability of him breaking into a family home in such a fashion to achieve this -- why does he beat Niina until her front teeth come out? Why does he leave Yasuko without a face? Why does he defecate in their toilet on top of family documents? Of course it's possible that his motive was financial because he had debts. I just don't feel that such a driver would impel him to the actions carried out in the house.
 
I am trying to imagine how the burglary part looks like. The Japanese Wikipedia (Tokyo police report) says the perpetrator acted like a criminal, pulling out the drawers starting from the bottom one.
He actually didn't do this. He did it from the top down (which is what David Canter immediately pointed to as evidence of the fact he wasn't a burglar). A professional would start at the bottom and work up to save time in not having to close after opening. [Doing it from the top down also explains why he was pulling the draws fully out of the cabinet]. However, some of the drawers clearly didn't interest him as much as others, which is why a few end up on Mikio's body at his feet. Others are dumped upstairs into the bath tub.
(Why, btw? Does anyone know why professional burglars start with bottom drawers?
Does it have to do with the tendency of the drawers to get stuck?)

But then, he doesn’t merely rummage through them. He flips them over and empties the contents of the floor, into the bathroom, some end up covering Mikio.

I fail to imagine what would you be looking for in such manner. Something solid, small but relatively heavy, hidden under the papers, perhaps? A piece of jewelry? A photo camera?
Impossible to know. Given that the only thing that has ever been confirmed as missing is the money and Mikio's sweatshirt (presumably as the killer's was now covered in blood), we're left only with guesswork.
His actions are a mixture of goal-oriented and random. Killing - very goal-oriented. Eating, sleeping, emptying bowels - random. (Unless he wanted to leave “proof” of eating regular Japanese food, indicating that he was a local, but I doubt he was so far-planning).

Where does rummaging through the drawers fit into?
I don't think eating Japanese food indicates anything other than he was in Japan that day, it certainly doesn't tell us whether he's local or not. As you say, though, I think he is there to kill. That is his goal. The rest feels incidental. Is he curious about his victims? Is he confused due to blood-loss? Is he looking for something specific? We could argue for and against each idea until the end of time.
 
I am sorry, I expressed myself mistakenly. By “he” I meant the killer’s father, not Mikio. You once mentioned that your poi’s father was strict and religious. I imagine him as “rigid”. Mikio, as I believe, was very different. His coworkers said that he’d always talk about his children.
Ah my mistake! Apologies
 
Hello! Got something neat for you to check out. Just stumbled upon something pretty useful that you might find handy.

Thanks for posting, @Sor Juana. I've spoken about this video before. With all respect to Pat Brown (and ignoring her views on race and politics as best as I can), she makes a lot of claims / guesses. I disagree with many of them. I say this as the person whose work she's leaning on in large parts. She hasn't spoken to the Miyazawa family's relatives. She hasn't spoken to the TMPD lead detective.

Side point: my own personal bugbear, Pat says "he napped on the couch, that's why they call him the Goldilocks Guy" -- for the millionth time, they do not call him this. I described him once as "a nightmarish version of Goldilocks" and people have run with this. Nobody in Japan would know what case is being referred to by the "Goldilocks Killer".
 
Hello, I'm new here, I would like to share some thoughts.

Entering the home
Police doesn't know how he entered the house. But speculation is through the bathroom window. I have read about a similar case occurred the same year (2000) in Japan. It says:
According to investigators, the boy, whose name is being withheld as he is a minor, entered the Iwasakis' two-story home at around 2 a.m. Aug. 14 by breaking a downstairs bathroom window.
Police say that after fatally stabbing Iwasaki's 13-year-old grandson, Junya, the youth attacked the other five one by one as they slept
Source
This seems logical. If you want to kill a family, do it so while they're sleeping. But our killer did it a not so late time. Here are some thoughts:
  • The bathroom window was left open on a winters' day at that hour? The killer must have been very luck or perhaps he knew this was common. Maybe the father would be the one to close it when going to bed.
  • Due to the lack of fibers on the window and police not knowing how he entered, it seems that the most logical explanation is through the main door. Either by luring the father out (it seems there were altercations at night with skaters, easy to imagine teens messing with them occasionally) and then sneaking into the house.
    Or somehow he was let in by the father. He must have been known at some degree but not too much (maybe very recently) that police could trace it. Also, he was likely a teenager, so it doesn't represent the same danger as an adult. However, I find it difficult that he killed Rei while Mikio was aware of his presence. Doubt he faked using the bathroom and killed Rei.
  • The balcony is another possibility but unlike the bathroom window how do you know if it's unlocked? Did he somehow convince Rei to open it or leave it unlocked? Is it easy to break in?
Why do it on the 30th of December? It's usually a date where you're supposed to be with family. Seems to me that it was meaningful either by bad memories or he wanted to send a message to Japanese society.

This doesn't seem his first rodeo. He was clumsy in the killings, yes. But a total pro on entering the house unnoticed (police still doesn't know) and not making noises.

The Clothes
The clothes left by the perpetrator are relatively new and kind of expensive. Seems smart to buy clothes that you don't normally wear so you are not recognized, even if it wasn't planned to leave them behind.
Who breaks into a house to kill a family with a scarf and a hat and then leaves without? If he had a car close, why bring these items? If he went on train, why leave them behind?
I read about the hard water thing. It could be that the clothes were manufactured in Korea (and washed), sold in Japan but never washed there. It was purchased for this purpose only.


The Killings
He suffocated Rei, to me this means that it wasn't his target. He wanted to be as sneaky as possible to get closer to his true target or goal of killing all of them.
He then kills the father, but how is it possible that the mother and sister didn't hear anything? The ladder was not down?

The killer stopped at some point and went to the kitchen. This seems like a short trip and yet Yasuko somehow shook off the fear and shock, went downstairs and into the bathroom to retrieve an aid kit and back upstairs. Really strange. Didn't she hear the killer in the kitchen? Or somehow a lot of time passed without a sound from the killer?

After all, he attacked 3 of the 4 in their sleep. Why not wait until later and find all sleeping? Like I said, he was not a pro when killing but he managed to enter unnoticed and figured out where everyone was and where to start killing without alerting any family member.

The Killer
It wasn't uncommon in Japan at the time that teenagers would kill in cold blood, like the Oita a few months before this one. I think the skate park has something to do, the killer didn't know the Miyazawas but they weren't a random target chosen that night. He had money since he bought expensive clothes just for the killing, and I think he wasn't with his family during the holidays. Probably from a rich family and was alone.
The USAF theory is also very likely but something in this murder tells me that it is something someone who grew up in Japan would do. A society very strict that sometimes pushes people to let go all the rage inside. It's also a typical Japanese family, if his family wasn't like that, why so much hate and rage?
I think if he wasn't from there he would hate people his age, classmates, etc.
 

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