PA PA - District Attorney Ray Gricar Mysteriously Disappeared - Bellefonte 15 April 2005 #18

[J. J. in Phila]

If we think of Ray stepping away...I assume he had help. I believe the cigarette smoke is telling of that. It had to have been someone in his circle he COMPLETELY trusted....who has kept their lips sealed to this day. Who could Ray trust with such vital information?
On the other hand, he was intelligent and could have been planning this for quite sometime, on his own. Leaving the car in a familiar area wanting to be seen..as if it was just another normal day so to speak.
Wherever he went, he has gone unrecognized if that's the case.

If RFG left on his own, the key question is, "How did Ray Gricar get out of Lewisburg."

The two likely answers are:

1. He bought a used car for less than $10,000 in cash.

2. Someone acquired a car (either a rental or a straw purchase).

1 Expanded: In the spring of 2005, there was a fire at PennDoT's processing center. It delayed the processing of title transfers. Unless you went to the AAA, it would take more than 60 days to process a transfer. It would not even show up in LE's database until that was done. RFG, who was LE, would know this.

The $10 k is the reporting limit to the US Treasury for cash transactions. I purchased a car about a week prior to RFG disappearance for less than $6K, and had it for 15 years.

2. Expanded: A helper, close to RFG, could have purchased or leased a car and given it to him to drive out of Lewisburg. The Southfield sighting may have been him returning it to the straw purchaser/renter, if accurate. Likewise, getting the purchase finalized could explain why RFG was seen in Lewisburg on 4/16.

Keep in mind that, while this could be an explanation for the witness reports, it is not the only explanation. The witnesses could be mistaken.

Was DNA ever retrieved from that cigarette?

Yes, and it does not match anyone in the criminal database.

 

[CuriousCricket]

If RFG left on his own, the key question is, "How did Ray Gricar get out of Lewisburg."

The two likely answers are:

1. He bought a used car for less than $10,000 in cash.

2. Someone acquired a car (either a rental or a straw purchase).

1 Expanded: In the spring of 2005, there was a fire at PennDoT's processing center. It delayed the processing of title transfers. Unless you went to the AAA, it would take more than 60 days to process a transfer. It would not even show up in LE's database until that was done. RFG, who was LE, would know this.

The $10 k is the reporting limit to the US Treasury for cash transactions. I purchased a car about a week prior to RFG disappearance for less than $6K, and had it for 15 years.

2. Expanded: A helper, close to RFG, could have purchased or leased a car and given it to him to drive out of Lewisburg. The Southfield sighting may have been him returning it to the straw purchaser/renter, if accurate. Likewise, getting the purchase finalized could explain why RFG was seen in Lewisburg on 4/16.

Keep in mind that, while this could be an explanation for the witness reports, it is not the only explanation. The witnesses could be mistaken.


Yes, and it does not match anyone in the criminal database.

maybe it's time to try GedMatch for the DNA

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I wrote a blog called "The Inner Circle," more than a decade ago, on people that could be a "helper." A "helper" would have three characteristics:

1. Trustworthy, i.e. it wouldn't be someone who take the money and run and who would carry out instructions.

2. Loyal, someone who wouldn't tell even in the face of a reward and wouldn't be heartbroken by his family's pleas.

3. Proximate, someone physically close enough to provide a car and who might be able to pick him up in Lewisburg.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

maybe it's time to try GedMatch for the DNA

A very good point, but the butts might not be from the cigarette that ashed in the car.

 

[Ann99]

We may never know. But I have come to believe that there is a connection to Ray’s brothers death. I have not been convinced that Ray’s brother’s death was a suicide. I think of the paperwork in the locked desk drawer.

 

[Cedars]

IMO, if RG was intending to return home that day, why did he destroy the laptop?

He'd need it for his work, and would have to come up with an excuse for what happened to it, and that would be a big security concern in the courthouse, that it might fall into the wrong hands. He couldn't very well say, 'it's okay, I made sure no one would ever find it'.

I think that evidence points strongly to RG having some kind of secret. Perhaps his secret was just that he was suicidal, and didn't want anyone to ever know that.

That said, did this make something voluntary, suicide or walkaway, a bit more likely. Yes, but that does not rule out foul play.

Personally, I don't understand the necessity for ruling out foul play.

IMO, there is no evidence that suggests or supports foul play.

I don't think it's possible to ever, completely, rule out anything. I look more for evidence that rules something in.

For example, if I want to know the time, I look at my watch. I don't feel the need to rule out every possibility that my watch is wrong. It's only if I encounter evidence that my watch is wrong, that I might start to rule that in.

(And I don't consider cigarette ash to be sufficient evidence to rule in anything.)

JMO

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Personally, I don't understand the necessity for ruling out foul play.

IMO, there is no evidence that suggests or supports foul play.

I don't think it's possible to ever, completely, rule out anything. I look more for evidence that rules something in.

For example, if I want to know the time, I look at my watch. I don't feel the need to rule out every possibility that my watch is wrong. It's only if I encounter evidence that my watch is wrong, that I might start to rule that in.

(And I don't consider cigarette ash to be sufficient evidence to rule in anything.)

JMO

Snipped for emphasis.

I have not said the destruction of the laptop rules out foul play. I said the destruction of the laptop is unrelated to foul play.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

We may never know. But I have come to believe that there is a connection to Ray’s brothers death. I have not been convinced that Ray’s brother’s death was a suicide. I think of the paperwork in the locked desk drawer.

That was suicide, though RFG may not have believed it.

 

[Cedars]

I have not said the destruction of the laptop rules out foul play.

I agree, that is not what you said.

Please confirm, I interpreted your words to mean that you are looking for some kind of evidence, that you have not yet found, that will rule out foul play.

I am saying that, for me, I do not believe there is any such evidence, anywhere, to be found. What kind of evidence could possibly, ever, rule out foul play?

Even if RG returns in person and says 'this was all me, there was no foul play' - plenty of people would believe he was an imposter set up as part of the murder conspiracy, or someone must have forced him to do it and he's covering up for them, etc, etc.

JMO

 

[Betty P]

If it was a staged disappearance, what was the point of making sure he was seen around the downtown area of Lewisburg for so long? Was that activity along with the laptop, the cigarette smoke and ash in the car and wiping down of the car interior just "red herrings" to cover up the "walking away"?

If so, why would he do that? What could possibly motivate him to take such a drastic step, including leaving his beloved daughter and girlfriend, other family and many friends? Disappearing from the face of the earth for nearly two decades is more than "a new girlfriend" or "just getting away". It's not the same as taking off for a couple of days to watch a ball game in Cleveland.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I agree, that is not what you said.

Please confirm, I interpreted your words to mean that you are looking for some kind of evidence, that you have not yet found, that will rule out foul play.

I am saying that, for me, I do not believe there is any such evidence, anywhere, to be found. What kind of evidence could possibly, ever, rule out foul play?

Even if RG returns in person and says 'this was all me, there was no foul play' - plenty of people would believe he was an imposter set up as part of the murder conspiracy, or someone must have forced him to do it and he's covering up for them, etc, etc.

JMO

I am looking for evidence of any possibility.

The laptop searches, et c., does not rule out the possibility RFG was planning to show up at the office on 4/18/05.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If it was a staged disappearance, what was the point of making sure he was seen around the downtown area of Lewisburg for so long? Was that activity along with the laptop, the cigarette smoke and ash in the car and wiping down of the car interior just "red herrings" to cover up the "walking away"?

If so, why would he do that? What could possibly motivate him to take such a drastic step, including leaving his beloved daughter and girlfriend, other family and many friends? Disappearing from the face of the earth for nearly two decades is more than "a new girlfriend" or "just getting away". It's not the same as taking off for a couple of days to watch a ball game in Cleveland.

We did not have a wiping of the car. The had fragmentary prints.

If this was walkaway, RFG could have been waiting for the final transaction with a car. He could have been walking around Lewisburg to give the impression that he was there all night, when he was staying with the helper, waiting to get the car.

The purpose was likely money.

 

[Cedars]

"making sure he was seen around the downtown area of Lewisburg for so long? Was that activity along with the laptop, the cigarette smoke and ash in the car and wiping down of the car interior just "red herrings" to cover up the "walking away"?

IMO, there's no basis to assume JG was 'making sure' of anything. IMO, that is attributing intent to actions/activities that could be just what they appear to be: unverified sightings, someone keeping a shiny car interior, a brief encounter with a smoker.

JMO

 

[Cedars]

I am looking for evidence of any possibility.

The laptop searches, et c., does not rule out the possibility RFG was planning to show up at the office on 4/18/05.

Yes, that's true.

IMO, these are not scientific experiments, they are just people. Human nature can't be put in a test tube so you can get conclusive results.

JMO

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Yes, that's true.

IMO, these are not scientific experiments, they are just people. Human nature can't be put in a test tube so you can get conclusive results.

JMO

Assume that RFG was action rationally, there is a lot we can do.

 

[Betty P]

IMO, there's no basis to assume JG was 'making sure' of anything. IMO, that is attributing intent to actions/activities that could be just what they appear to be: unverified sightings, someone keeping a shiny car interior, a brief encounter with a smoker.

JMO

The sightings of Ray in several areas of downtown Lewisburg were considered credible. The most credible sightings were from 2 women who worked at the Packwood House Museum near the bridge and where Ray's car was found. They saw him several times during a period of about 2 hours. He was walking up and down the sidewalk in front of the historic home talking to someone on a cell phone. He appeared as if he was looking for someone. Later, he was seen farther down the street. He went inside a small store (not the Street of Shops) and was pacing around, talking on his cell phone the whole time.

https://www.centredaily.com/news/special-reports/article42802959.html

The last sighting of Ray Gricar was around 5:30 pm that day.

If someone was planning to "walk away", why would he spend so much time walking and driving around Lewiston, PA?

I'm also just reading through my copies of the investigative files related to Ray's disappearance. One report states that Ray's brother, who had committed suicide, had been previously diagnosed as "manic-depressive" or today called "bi-polar". Had Ray inherited the same mental illness, it would have been diagnosed well before the age of 59.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Betty P, I was thinking more of the 4/16 sightings. There were only 3, and they were not separate reporting.

RFG, if this was walk away, could have been RFG waiting for a car, or wanting to attract attention to Lewisburg.

 

[Black Diamond]

IMO, there's no basis to assume JG was 'making sure' of anything. IMO, that is attributing intent to actions/activities that could be just what they appear to be: unverified sightings, someone keeping a shiny car interior, a brief encounter with a smoker.

JMO

IMO there is basis to assume he was making sure the laptop data was unrecoverable. He brought that laptop with him to Lewisburg. He was off that day and had no legitimate reason to have a laptop, especially a work laptop with him (keeping in mind it is in 2005 before WIFI was accessible.) Otherwise, I agree, his actions we know about were nothing too out of the ordinary that day.

 

[Betty P]

IMO there is basis to assume he was making sure the laptop data was unrecoverable. He brought that laptop with him to Lewisburg. He was off that day and had no legitimate reason to have a laptop, especially a work laptop with him (keeping in mind it is in 2005 before WIFI was accessible.) Otherwise, I agree, his actions we know about were nothing too out of the ordinary that day.

Most definitely, he was taking the laptop for a reason. His girlfriend PF said he usually only took it to and from home and office. Only one time, he took it when they went on vacation in New England a year or so prior.

It may or may not be relevant that he spent half the day prior to his disappearance(April 14) he skipped work and went driving around. He told PF that he had driven around the Altoona, PA area. The only call made on his cell phone that day was to his daughter in Seattle, around 10:31 am.

ETA: On Tues April 12, he reportedly left work to go to Penn State U, then didn't return to work.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Most definitely, he was taking the laptop for a reason. His girlfriend PF said he usually only took it to and from home and office. Only one time, he took it when they went on vacation in New England a year or so prior.

It may or may not be relevant that he spent half the day prior to his disappearance(April 14) he skipped work and went driving around. He told PF that he had driven around the Altoona, PA area. The only call made on his cell phone that day was to his daughter in Seattle, around 10:31 am.

So far as I know, RFG said nothing about Altoona. He was at a meeting on the morning of 4/14/05 and went into the office in the afternoon. For clarity, the call from RFG's daughter, LAG. She had called the house phone prior to that.

RFG was spotted near a boat landing on Raystown Lake by a doctor that morning.